Draft.This report is a draft and subject to change.
AltProtein VietnamVietnam supply-side scoping study
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At a glance

The numbers that frame alternative protein in Vietnam, today and to 2050, on one page, with links to the chapters behind them.

6 min readWhat the tags mean
On this page
  1. The protein gap (Why Vietnam)
  2. Raw materials and industry (Asset map, Industrial base)
  3. What is on the shelf (Alt protein today)
  4. Rules, research and money (Rules, Knowledge and talent, Capital, Region)
  5. Costs and prices to beat (Economics, Technology fit)
  6. What could be done (Plays, Policy options)
  7. Looking to 2050 (Drivers to 2050 to Robust moves, new in edition 1.1)

The protein gap (Why Vietnam)

about 99%
Share of soy protein in feed that is imported
2025
Context and sources

In 2025 Vietnam imported 2.61 Mt of soybeans (98.4% of supply) and 5.70 Mt of soybean meal. Domestic crushing uses imported beans, so it does not reduce protein import dependence. 1,2

Why Vietnam →

about 74%
Share of maize supply that is imported
2025
Context and sources

Vietnam imported 11.91 Mt of maize worth USD 2.95 billion in 2025, about 74% of total maize supply, mainly from Argentina and Brazil; domestic output was flat to falling at about 4.1 Mt. 3,4

Why Vietnam →

about USD 10.2 billion
Feed-ingredient import bill
2025Our calculation
Context and sources

Our sum of four 2025 customs lines: maize, soybeans, wheat and animal feed and ingredients. It is gross, includes some milling wheat and food soybeans, and is rounded to roughly USD 10 billion in summaries. 5,3,2,6

Why Vietnam →

USD 11.3 billion
Seafood exports
2025
Context and sources

Seafood exports rose 12.4% in 2025 and included about USD 4.6 billion of shrimp and USD 2.2 billion of pangasius, much of it raised on imported feed protein. 7,4

Why Vietnam →

USD 2,500 per t
World fishmeal price
Aug 2026
Context and sources

World Bank series for Peruvian fishmeal at 65% protein. August 2026 was 43% above a year earlier and the highest of 2020 to 2026; the 2025 average was USD 1,706 per t. 8,9

Why Vietnam →

30 to 32 Mt
Industrial feed output target for 2030
2030 target
Context and sources

Set by the livestock strategy (Decision 1520/2020), against about 22 Mt of livestock and poultry feed in 2025. The texts do not make clear whether the target includes aquafeed. 10,11

Outlook →

How much of Vietnam's feed protein and grain is imported

Share of 2025 supply imported, by ingredient

How much of Vietnam's feed protein and grain is importedBar chart: about 99% of soy protein, 98% of soybeans, 79% of soybean meal, 74% of maize and 100% of wheat and DDGS used in Vietnam in 2025 were imported.0%25%50%75%100%Share of 2025 supply imported (%)100% importedSoy protein (beans andmeal)Soy protein (beans and meal): 99% imported Note: about 99% of soy protein in feed; domestic crush uses imported beans Main origins: Argentina, Brazil, United States99%SoybeansSoybeans: 98.4% imported, 2.61 Mt imported in 2025 Note: share of domestic supply imported Main origins: Brazil 45.8%, United States 43.6%98.4% (2.61 Mt)Soybean mealSoybean meal: 79% imported, 5.70 Mt imported in 2025 Note: share of meal supply imported Main origins: Mostly Argentina (origin shares not re-checked)79% (5.70 Mt)MaizeMaize: 74% imported, 11.91 Mt imported in 2025 Note: about 74% of supply imported Main origins: Argentina 46.5%, Brazil 34.8%, United States about 13%74% (11.91 Mt)Wheat (all uses)Wheat (all uses): 100% imported, 5.45 Mt imported in 2025 Note: no domestic production Main origins: Australia, Brazil, United States100% (5.45 Mt)DDGSDDGS: 100% imported, 1.5 Mt imported in 2025 Note: no domestic production Main origins: United States 72%100% (1.5 Mt)

Soybean meal share is of meal supply; the soy-protein row is the headline figure.

Sources: 1,3,4,6,2

Show dataHide data
How much of Vietnam's feed protein and grain is imported
IngredientShare imported, 2025 (%)Imports, 2025 (Mt)NoteMain origins
Soy protein (beans and meal)99about 99% of soy protein in feed; domestic crush uses imported beansArgentina, Brazil, United States
Soybeans98.42.61share of domestic supply importedBrazil 45.8%, United States 43.6%
Soybean meal795.70share of meal supply importedMostly Argentina (origin shares not re-checked)
Maize7411.91about 74% of supply importedArgentina 46.5%, Brazil 34.8%, United States about 13%
Wheat (all uses)1005.45no domestic productionAustralia, Brazil, United States
DDGS1001.5no domestic productionUnited States 72%

Raw materials and industry (Asset map, Industrial base)

10.24 Mt
Cassava roots harvested
2025
Context and sources

Fresh roots harvested from 499,100 ha in 2025, down 18,600 ha on 2024. Starch factories also process roughly 8 Mt a year of roots imported from Cambodia and Laos. 12

Asset map →

about 6 Mt wet
Cassava pulp from starch factories
2025Our calculation
Context and sources

Our 2025 estimate from Thai factory ratios and Vietnamese starch output: range 4 to 8 Mt wet, about 1.3 Mt dry matter. Pulp holds only 1.5% to 2.6% protein, so it is a carbon source. 13,14,15,12

Asset map →

about 75%
Rise in fresh cassava root prices in a year
Apr 2026
Context and sources

Fresh roots at 30% starch reached VND 3,000 to 3,550 per kg in April 2026, about 75% above April 2025, after a supply shortfall. The E10 fuel-ethanol mandate, in force from June 2026, adds a new buyer. 16,17

Asset map →

2.15 Mt (USD 1.06 billion)
Cassava starch exports
2023
Context and sources

In 2023, 93.5% went to China. China imported only USD 0.16 million of glucose syrup from Vietnam in 2024, so the starch-to-sugar step that feeds fermentation mostly happens after the starch leaves Vietnam. 18

Region →

11,000 to 34,000 m3
Installed aerobic fermentation volume
2026Our calculation
Context and sources

Our modelled 2026 estimate from published plant capacities for sterile, aerated tanks. Almost all of it sits inside Vedan, Ajinomoto and Daesang, and none is offered for contract fermentation. 19,20,21,22,23,24

Industrial base →

269 mills, about 48% utilisation
Industrial feed mills and their utilisation
2023
Context and sources

In 2023, 269 mills had 43.2 Mt a year of design capacity; they produced 20.8 Mt in 2022, about 48% utilisation. Spare capacity makes feed trials easy to host. 25

Industrial base →

What is on the shelf (Alt protein today)

4.7 g per 100 g
Median protein in audited plant-based foods
Sep 2026
Context and sources

Across 43 ready-to-eat or ready-to-cook products with a label value in our September 2026 audit of 11 stores; 53% had under 5 g and only 16% reached 10 g. 26

Alt protein today →

77%, plus 11% partly
Audited products relying on imported protein
Sep 2026
Context and sources

Of 170 products in our September 2026 audit whose main protein ingredient could be identified, 77% rely on an imported one and 11% partly do. Soybeans count as imported. 26,27

Alt protein today →

Rules, research and money (Rules, Knowledge and talent, Capital, Region)

October to November 2026 (expected)
Food Safety Law expected before the National Assembly
2026
Context and sources

The one near-term window to add a new-food clause. The draft was notified to the WTO in August 2026; the session timing is not yet confirmed on the agenda, and entry into force on 1 January 2027 is possible. 28,29,30

Rules →

about a quarter to a third of Thailand's
Novel-food research intensity relative to Thailand
2015 to Sep 2026Our calculation
Context and sources

Plant-based or cultivated meat records per 10,000 publications, 2015 to September 2026: Vietnam 0.37 against Thailand 1.58 on OpenAIRE, about 23% (our calculation). Edition 1.1 adds OpenAlex: 4.1 against 13.4 core-basket works per 10,000 national publications, 2015 to 2025, about 31%. Counts are lower bounds. 31,32

Knowledge and talent →

USD 32.5 million
Entobel insect-meal project financing
2022 to 2023
Context and sources

Mekong Capital USD 25 million and Dragon Capital USD 5 million (2022), plus an IFC USD 2.5 million upstream agreement (2023). Earlier drafts said USD 36 million, which is not supported. 33,34,35,36

Capital →

about USD 1 million
Agriculture venture capital in Vietnam
2025
Context and sources

About 0.2% of the USD 509 million of venture capital raised in Vietnam in 2025. We found no disclosed venture round for a Vietnam-based plant-based or fermentation company. 37

Capital →

0 out of 100
Vietnam's regional score on regulatory readiness
Oct 2025
Context and sources

From the October 2025 GFI APAC and Hawkwood Biotech study of nine Asia-Pacific countries. Vietnam scores 100 on labour cost but has no novel-food framework and no approvals. 38,39

Region →

Costs and prices to beat (Economics, Technology fit)

USD 4,050 to 14,700 per t protein
Indicative cost of fungal feed protein in Vietnam
2026Our calculation
Context and sources

Our indicative 2026 cost stack for a 10,000 t a year plant, not a feasibility study. Capital charges and maintenance are 54% to 67% of cost; fishmeal protein costs USD 2,625 to 3,846. 40,41,42,43,44,45,46

Economics →

USD 2,625 to 3,846 per t protein
Fishmeal price per tonne of protein
2025 to Aug 2026Our calculation
Context and sources

Our calculation at 65% protein from the World Bank series: 2025 average (USD 1,706 per t) and August 2026 (USD 2,500 per t). Soybean meal protein was about USD 880 per t. 8,9

Economics →

3,700 to 10,700 VND per 100 g protein
Indicative cost of textured soy protein
2026Our calculation
Context and sources

Our indicative 2026 cost for a 3,000 t a year extrusion line on imported soy flour or concentrate. It is a small fraction of retail meat and egg protein prices. 40,41,42,47

Economics →

about 34,000 to 46,000 VND per 100 g protein
Retail price of egg and chicken protein
Sep 2026
Context and sources

Online grocery prices in Ho Chi Minh City on 23 September 2026. Eggs and chicken set the floor for mass-market plant-based products; lean pork is about 63,000 to 69,500 VND. 48,49,50

Economics →

10.1 g/L vs above 50 g/L
Best precision-fermentation titer vs bulk benchmark
2026
Context and sources

The best published leghemoglobin titers (2022 to 2026) are 3.5, 7.27 and 10.1 g/L, 5 to 15 times below the 50 g/L a leading review says bulk proteins need. That benchmark is an expert assertion. 51,52,53,54,55

Technology fit →

The price to beat in feed

USD per tonne of protein

The price to beat in feedRange bars: soybean meal protein USD 796 to 876 per tonne; fishmeal protein 2,625 to 3,846; indicative Vietnamese fungal protein 4,050 to 14,700.BenchmarkWorking assumptionCost03,0006,0009,00012,00015,000USD per tonne of proteinSoybean meal proteinSoybean meal protein: USD 796 to 876 per t of protein Note: 2025 average to Aug 2026, 46% crude proteinUSD 796 to 876Fishmeal proteinFishmeal protein: USD 2,625 to 3,846 per t of protein Note: 2025 average to Aug 2026, 65% crude proteinUSD 2,625 to 3,846Realised price for a Vietnamese feedSCP (70 to 90% of fishmeal-proteinparity)Realised price for a Vietnamese feed SCP (70 to 90% of fishmeal-protein parity): USD 1,838 to 3,461 per t of protein Note: our assumptionUSD 1,838 to 3,461Indicative Vietnamese fungal feedproteinIndicative Vietnamese fungal feed protein: USD 4,050 to 14,700 per t of protein Note: indicative cost stack AUSD 4,050 to 14,700

Sources: 8,44,45,46

Show dataHide data
The price to beat in feed
ItemKindLow (USD per t of protein)High (USD per t of protein)Note
Soybean meal proteinbenchmark7968762025 average to Aug 2026, 46% crude protein
Fishmeal proteinbenchmark2,6253,8462025 average to Aug 2026, 65% crude protein
Realised price for a Vietnamese feed SCP (70 to 90% of fishmeal-protein parity)working assumption1,8383,461our assumption
Indicative Vietnamese fungal feed proteincost4,05014,700indicative cost stack A

What could be done (Plays, Policy options)

HorizonBusinesses (plays)Public steps
Now to 2028T1 domestic textured plant protein; T2 functional microbial feed ingredients; T4 cassava-starch-to-sugar hub (if a fermenter commits); pilots of koji (T9) and duckweed feed (T6)New-food clause in the Food Safety Law (expected October to November 2026); note on precision-fermented proteins; aquafeed and livestock feed-list fixes
2028 to 2031T5 shared pilot and tolling fermentation; T10 mung bean and rice protein; T7 contract-made precision fermentation; T3 bulk fishmeal replacement if costs fallNovel-food decree with reliance lane; public feed trials; protein-quality laboratory; capital grants over tax holidays
2031 onwardT8 cultivated seafood if a food cell line existsRegional reliance on novel-food approvals

Ten plays, scored with weights you can change

Weighted score (1 to 5) by audience preset

Ten plays, scored with weights you can changeBar chart of weighted scores: under balanced weights the cassava-starch-to-sugar hub (3.90) and domestic textured plant protein (3.80) lead, followed by functional feed ingredients and shared pilot fermentation (3.45).012345Weighted score, balanced weights (1 to 5)T4 Cassava starch to fermentation sugarhubT4 Cassava starch to fermentation sugar hub: 3.90 (balanced weights, 1 to 5) Must be true: Cassava prices stabilise after the 2025 to 2026 spike and the E10 mandate; at least one fermenter commits to co-locate; wastewater and biogas infrastructure can serve fermentation Kill tests: No fermenter commits within two years; cassava price volatility makes long-term sugar contracts impossible Horizon: 1 to 3 years3.90T1 Domestic textured plant proteinT1 Domestic textured plant protein: 3.80 (balanced weights, 1 to 5) Must be true: Ex-factory cost at or below landed Chinese textured protein (about USD 1.6/kg before freight and duty, 2023); buyers value freshness, customisation and local supply; a food-grade soy flour or concentrate supply (imported, or a food-grade stream from a domestic crusher) Kill tests: Three or more named buyers decline a trial order at a price covering cost; Chinese landed price stays below Vietnamese ex-factory cost at 3,000 t a year Horizon: 0 to 2 years3.80T2 Functional microbial feed ingredients forshrimp and pangasiusT2 Functional microbial feed ingredients for shrimp and pangasius: 3.45 (balanced weights, 1 to 5) Must be true: Repeatable species-specific trials show at least a 3 to 5% gain in survival or feed conversion at 1 to 5% inclusion; a legal route for aquafeed use (written opinion or trial); cost per tonne of product below the functional willingness to pay (about USD 1,000 to 4,250 per t in total for pangasius; USD 1,280 to 4,800 per t above fishmeal parity for shrimp) Kill tests: Two independent tank or pond trials fail to show a gain at 5% inclusion or less; Chinese by-product biomass matches the function at a lower price Horizon: 1 to 3 years3.45T5 Shared pilot and tolling fermentationT5 Shared pilot and tolling fermentation: 3.45 (balanced weights, 1 to 5) Must be true: An anchor host (industrial producer, Saigon Hi-Tech Park, FIRI or a university) and an operator; enough users to fill the line; public or DFI co-funding Kill tests: No host agrees to tolling terms; utilisation below about a third in the first two years Horizon: 2 to 4 years3.45T6 Duckweed on aquaculture effluent forfeedT6 Duckweed on aquaculture effluent for feed: 3.30 (balanced weights, 1 to 5) Must be true: Yields of 10 to 30 t dry matter per ha per year on Vietnamese sites; heavy-metal and manganese levels within feed limits; low-cost harvesting and drying Kill tests: Field yields below 10 t per ha per year; contaminants above feed limits on typical effluent Horizon: 1 to 3 years3.30T10 Mung bean and rice protein for plantdrinksT10 Mung bean and rice protein for plant drinks: 3.05 (balanced weights, 1 to 5) Must be true: Functional and sensory parity in drinks; cost near imported pea protein; a buyer specification; a reliable mung bean supply (65% of imports come from Myanmar) Kill tests: Buyer rejects on taste or stability; cost above imported pea protein by more than a local-sourcing premium buyers will pay Horizon: 2 to 4 years3.05T9 Koji and fungal foods on food-grade sidestreamsT9 Koji and fungal foods on food-grade side streams: 3.00 (balanced weights, 1 to 5) Must be true: A characterised strain with no cyclopiazonic acid or 3-nitropropionic acid risk; a food-grade substrate supply; consumer acceptance in chay and mainstream dishes Kill tests: Strain safety data cannot be obtained; sensory trials fail with target buyers Horizon: 1 to 3 years3.00T3 Bulk microbial protein for fishmealreplacementT3 Bulk microbial protein for fishmeal replacement: 2.65 (balanced weights, 1 to 5) Must be true: Capex below about USD 6,000 per annual tonne (tolling or brownfield); near-free carbon from a side stream; fishmeal stays near its 2026 high; beats Chinese by-product and FeedKind-type imports Kill tests: After a pilot, measured cost stays above 1.2 times fishmeal-protein parity at 2025 prices; no mill signs an offtake at 70 to 90% of fishmeal-protein parity Horizon: 3 to 6 years2.65T7 High-value, low-doseprecision-fermentation ingredientsT7 High-value, low-dose precision-fermentation ingredients: 2.10 (balanced weights, 1 to 5) Must be true: A product where titers of 1 to 10 g/L are economic; freedom to operate (OPENPichia or licensed strains); a foreign approval or an ingredient use outside novel-food rules; a clear GMO pathway under Decree 43/2026 Kill tests: No customer letter of intent after a sample programme; contract-manufacturing cost above the target price at pilot scale Horizon: 2 to 5 years2.10T8 Cultivated seafood researchT8 Cultivated seafood research: 1.55 (balanced weights, 1 to 5) Must be true: A food-suitable cell line; research funding over 5 years or more; a partner with scale-up know-how Kill tests: No serum-free, suspension-capable line after 3 years of work Horizon: 5 to 10 years or more1.55Top three under each presetPresetFirstSecondThirdBalancedT4 (3.90)T1 (3.80)T2 and T5 (3.45)InvestorsT1 (3.80)T4 (3.50)T2 (3.40)Policy makersT4 (3.95)T5 (3.85)T2 (3.65)StartupsT1 (4.15)T4 (3.85)T2 (3.35)F&B and feed manufacturersT1 (4.15)T4 (3.75)T2 (3.45)Research bodiesT4 (4.15)T5 (4.00)T2 (3.70)International bodies and DFIsT4 (4.10)T5 (3.85)T1 (3.65)

Balanced weights. Turn on JavaScript to change the weights.

Select a play to see its card.

T4 Cassava starch to fermentation sugar hub 3.90

Feedstock enabler · enabler · 1 to 3 years

  • Market pull●●●●●
  • Vietnam advantage●●●●●
  • Technical readiness●●●●●
  • Route to market●●●●●
  • Capital efficiency●●●●●
  • Defensibility●●●●●
  • Public value●●●●●
What it is
Convert part of the cassava starch Vietnam exports into fermentation-grade glucose next to starch factories, and co-locate fermenters (domestic or foreign) at the same sites
Why Vietnam
Vietnam shipped 2.15 Mt of cassava starch in 2023, 93.5% to China, while China imported only USD 0.16 million of glucose syrup from Vietnam in 2024; starch factories cluster in Tay Ninh and the Central Highlands; glucose technology is standard
What must be true
Cassava prices stabilise after the 2025 to 2026 spike and the E10 mandate; at least one fermenter commits to co-locate; wastewater and biogas infrastructure can serve fermentation
Kill tests
No fermenter commits within two years; cassava price volatility makes long-term sugar contracts impossible
First customers
Domestic fermenters (amino acids, yeast, enzymes); foreign biomass or precision-fermentation firms seeking a lower-cost ASEAN site
Partners
Starch groups in Tay Ninh; provincial investment agencies; industrial parks
Horizon
1 to 3 years
Capital
Not estimated; hydrolysis and refining lines are standard starch-industry equipment

Asset map · Region

T1 Domestic textured plant protein 3.80

Plant protein · food ingredient · 0 to 2 years

  • Market pull●●●●●
  • Vietnam advantage●●●●●
  • Technical readiness●●●●●
  • Route to market●●●●●
  • Capital efficiency●●●●●
  • Defensibility●●●●●
  • Public value●●●●●
What it is
Dry textured soy protein and soy-gluten granules and slices, made in Vietnam for chay brands, frozen-food makers and co-packers; high-moisture whole cuts as a second step
Why Vietnam
Every audited Vietnamese product with 10 g protein or more per 100 g runs on imported textured soy, soy protein or gluten; no commercial extrusion found; buyers named; ordinary food rules
What must be true
Ex-factory cost at or below landed Chinese textured protein (about USD 1.6/kg before freight and duty, 2023); buyers value freshness, customisation and local supply; a food-grade soy flour or concentrate supply (imported, or a food-grade stream from a domestic crusher)
Kill tests
Three or more named buyers decline a trial order at a price covering cost; Chinese landed price stays below Vietnamese ex-factory cost at 3,000 t a year
First customers
An Nhien, Au Lac, Xuan Hong, LC Foods, Cholimex, CJ Foods Vietnam (Cau Tre, bibigo), Vissan, Thoai An, GN Foods and other co-packers
Partners
Extrusion-line suppliers; a soy crusher (VAL) for a food-grade flake stream; FIRI for pilot trials
Horizon
0 to 2 years
Capital
Indicative equipment USD 1.5 to 4 million for a 1 t/h line (assumption; no verified extrusion capex found)

Alt protein today · Economics · Technology fit

T2 Functional microbial feed ingredients for shrimp and pangasius 3.45

Microbial protein (feed) · feed ingredient · 1 to 3 years

  • Market pull●●●●●
  • Vietnam advantage●●●●●
  • Technical readiness●●●●●
  • Route to market●●●●●
  • Capital efficiency●●●●●
  • Defensibility●●●●●
  • Public value●●●●●
What it is
Yeast, fungal or bacterial biomass products used at 1 to 5% of shrimp or fish diets and sold on survival, feed efficiency or palatability, made on Vietnamese carbohydrate
Why Vietnam
Abundant cassava and sugar carbon; captive aerobic fermentation skills; about six firms make most shrimp feed; inactive yeasts already on the livestock feed list; buyers pay for function
What must be true
Repeatable species-specific trials show at least a 3 to 5% gain in survival or feed conversion at 1 to 5% inclusion; a legal route for aquafeed use (written opinion or trial); cost per tonne of product below the functional willingness to pay (about USD 1,000 to 4,250 per t in total for pangasius; USD 1,280 to 4,800 per t above fishmeal parity for shrimp)
Kill tests
Two independent tank or pond trials fail to show a gain at 5% inclusion or less; Chinese by-product biomass matches the function at a lower price
First customers
Sheng Long, CP Vietnam, Uni-President Vietnam, Tongwei, Grobest, Gromax (shrimp feed); Vinh Hoan and other integrated pangasius groups
Partners
Vedan, Ajinomoto or Daesang (tolling or co-product streams); ShrimpVet or university aquaculture labs for trials; De Heus, GreenFeed, Cargill as distribution
Horizon
1 to 3 years
Capital
Low if tolled on existing tanks; a dedicated plant sits in the fermentation capex range (USD 8,000 to 20,000 per annual tonne, indicative)

Industrial base · Rules · Economics · Feed and aquafeed market

T5 Shared pilot and tolling fermentation 3.45

Infrastructure enabler · enabler · 2 to 4 years

  • Market pull●●●●●
  • Vietnam advantage●●●●●
  • Technical readiness●●●●●
  • Route to market●●●●●
  • Capital efficiency●●●●●
  • Defensibility●●●●●
  • Public value●●●●●
What it is
A food-grade pilot line (hundreds of litres to a few cubic metres) plus negotiated tolling on existing industrial tanks, open to startups and researchers
Why Vietnam
Aerobic tanks exist inside Vedan, Ajinomoto and Daesang, but we found no published tolling offer and no open pilot fermenter; startups otherwise scale up in Singapore, Thailand or China
What must be true
An anchor host (industrial producer, Saigon Hi-Tech Park, FIRI or a university) and an operator; enough users to fill the line; public or DFI co-funding
Kill tests
No host agrees to tolling terms; utilisation below about a third in the first two years
First customers
Feed and food startups under T2, T7 and T9; research groups; foreign firms testing Vietnamese feedstocks
Partners
Saigon Hi-Tech Park; FIRI; Vedan; Ajinomoto; Daesang; Thai EECi (access arrangement)
Horizon
2 to 4 years
Capital
Pilot scale; public or DFI co-funding expected (not estimated)

Industrial base · Knowledge and talent · Policy options

T6 Duckweed on aquaculture effluent for feed 3.30

Aquatic plants · feed ingredient · 1 to 3 years

  • Market pull●●●●●
  • Vietnam advantage●●●●●
  • Technical readiness●●●●●
  • Route to market●●●●●
  • Capital efficiency●●●●●
  • Defensibility●●●●●
  • Public value●●●●●
What it is
Duckweed grown on pond or processing effluent, used fresh or dried in fish, poultry or pig feed; a protein concentrate for food later
Why Vietnam
Duckweed is already a permitted livestock feed material; warm climate; large aquaculture effluent volumes; a Vietnamese collection of more than 100 wild strains
What must be true
Yields of 10 to 30 t dry matter per ha per year on Vietnamese sites; heavy-metal and manganese levels within feed limits; low-cost harvesting and drying
Kill tests
Field yields below 10 t per ha per year; contaminants above feed limits on typical effluent
First customers
Integrated pangasius and tilapia farms; small feed mills; livestock farms
Partners
Can Tho University and other aquaculture faculties; pangasius processors
Horizon
1 to 3 years
Capital
Low (ponds, harvesters, dryers)

Asset map · Technology fit

T10 Mung bean and rice protein for plant drinks 3.05

Plant protein · food ingredient · 2 to 4 years

  • Market pull●●●●●
  • Vietnam advantage●●●●●
  • Technical readiness●●●●●
  • Route to market●●●●●
  • Capital efficiency●●●●●
  • Defensibility●●●●●
  • Public value●●●●●
What it is
Protein concentrates or isolates from mung bean and rice, replacing imported pea protein in high-protein plant drinks and yogurts
Why Vietnam
A large plant-milk industry; imported pea protein in high-protein lines; rice and mung bean are familiar; ordinary food rules
What must be true
Functional and sensory parity in drinks; cost near imported pea protein; a buyer specification; a reliable mung bean supply (65% of imports come from Myanmar)
Kill tests
Buyer rejects on taste or stability; cost above imported pea protein by more than a local-sourcing premium buyers will pay
First customers
Vinamilk, TH and other plant-milk makers
Partners
Rice millers; FIRI; food-technology faculties
Horizon
2 to 4 years
Capital
Moderate (wet fractionation and drying; not estimated)

Alt protein today · Technology fit

T9 Koji and fungal foods on food-grade side streams 3.00

Fungal foods · food product · 1 to 3 years

  • Market pull●●●●●
  • Vietnam advantage●●●●●
  • Technical readiness●●●●●
  • Route to market●●●●●
  • Capital efficiency●●●●●
  • Defensibility●●●●●
  • Public value●●●●●
What it is
Solid-state fermented foods and ingredients using characterised Aspergillus oryzae or other food moulds on okara, broken rice or brewer's spent grain
Why Vietnam
Tuong (fermented soybean paste) tradition; local gene tools for A. oryzae; koji on food substrates goes through ordinary self-declaration; food-grade side streams exist
What must be true
A characterised strain with no cyclopiazonic acid or 3-nitropropionic acid risk; a food-grade substrate supply; consumer acceptance in chay and mainstream dishes
Kill tests
Strain safety data cannot be obtained; sensory trials fail with target buyers
First customers
Chay brands; restaurants; frozen-food makers
Partners
VNU Hanoi fungal genetics group; tofu and soy-milk makers; breweries
Horizon
1 to 3 years
Capital
Low (solid-state fermentation rooms)

Rules · Knowledge and talent · Technology fit

T3 Bulk microbial protein for fishmeal replacement 2.65

Microbial protein (feed) · feed ingredient · 3 to 6 years

  • Market pull●●●●●
  • Vietnam advantage●●●●●
  • Technical readiness●●●●●
  • Route to market●●●●●
  • Capital efficiency●●●●●
  • Defensibility●●●●●
  • Public value●●●●●
What it is
Fungal or bacterial protein made at 10,000 t a year or more to replace 25 to 50% of fishmeal in shrimp feed
Why Vietnam
Carbon and buyers exist; the displaceable fishmeal pool is about 120 to 245 kt a year (central), of which 25 to 90 kt in total is realistically contestable by novel proteins, already contested by insect meal and Chinese microbial protein
What must be true
Capex below about USD 6,000 per annual tonne (tolling or brownfield); near-free carbon from a side stream; fishmeal stays near its 2026 high; beats Chinese by-product and FeedKind-type imports
Kill tests
After a pilot, measured cost stays above 1.2 times fishmeal-protein parity at 2025 prices; no mill signs an offtake at 70 to 90% of fishmeal-protein parity
First customers
Shrimp feed makers listed under T2
Partners
Starch factories (pulp, wastewater) or amino-acid producers; a DFI for first-loss capital
Horizon
3 to 6 years
Capital
Tens of USD millions for a 10,000 t plant (indicative stack A: capital is 54 to 67% of cost)

Economics · Feed and aquafeed market

T7 High-value, low-dose precision-fermentation ingredients 2.10

Precision fermentation · food ingredient · 2 to 5 years

  • Market pull●●●●●
  • Vietnam advantage●●●●●
  • Technical readiness●●●●●
  • Route to market●●●●●
  • Capital efficiency●●●●●
  • Defensibility●●●●●
  • Public value●●●●●
What it is
Enzymes, heme or sweet proteins and specialty functional proteins developed by Vietnamese teams and made under contract (Singapore, Thailand, China) until a domestic option exists
Why Vietnam
Vietnamese groups already express proteins in yeast; low-dose products escape the bulk-titer benchmark; export markets can rely on Singapore or other approvals
What must be true
A product where titers of 1 to 10 g/L are economic; freedom to operate (OPENPichia or licensed strains); a foreign approval or an ingredient use outside novel-food rules; a clear GMO pathway under Decree 43/2026
Kill tests
No customer letter of intent after a sample programme; contract-manufacturing cost above the target price at pilot scale
First customers
Regional food and flavour ingredient firms; feed-enzyme buyers
Partners
ScaleUp Bio (Singapore); EECi (Thailand); Chinese CDMOs; Vietnamese protein-expression labs
Horizon
2 to 5 years
Capital
Asset-light at first (contract manufacturing)

Rules · Region · Technology fit

T8 Cultivated seafood research 1.55

Cultivated meat and seafood · research · 5 to 10 years or more

  • Market pull●●●●●
  • Vietnam advantage●●●●●
  • Technical readiness●●●●●
  • Route to market●●●●●
  • Capital efficiency●●●●●
  • Defensibility●●●●●
  • Public value●●●●●
What it is
Serum-free adaptation of striped catfish and shrimp cells, growth-factor expression and regulatory preparation, in partnership with foreign groups
Why Vietnam
Vietnam is the world's main pangasius producer; Vietnamese groups express growth factors and culture stem cells; regional approvals are arriving
What must be true
A food-suitable cell line; research funding over 5 years or more; a partner with scale-up know-how
Kill tests
No serum-free, suspension-capable line after 3 years of work
First customers
None in this decade; research partners and foreign companies
Partners
Foreign cultivated-seafood firms; ICAR-NBFGR-type cell repositories; Vinh Hoan (a prior investor abroad)
Horizon
5 to 10 years or more
Capital
Research grants

Technology fit · Region

Scores are judgements, not ratings.

Evidence:

Show dataHide data
Ten plays, scored with weights you can change
RankPlayBalanced score (1 to 5)Horizon
1T4 Cassava starch to fermentation sugar hub3.901 to 3 years
2T1 Domestic textured plant protein3.800 to 2 years
3T2 Functional microbial feed ingredients for shrimp and pangasius3.451 to 3 years
4T5 Shared pilot and tolling fermentation3.452 to 4 years
5T6 Duckweed on aquaculture effluent for feed3.301 to 3 years
6T10 Mung bean and rice protein for plant drinks3.052 to 4 years
7T9 Koji and fungal foods on food-grade side streams3.001 to 3 years
8T3 Bulk microbial protein for fishmeal replacement2.653 to 6 years
9T7 High-value, low-dose precision-fermentation ingredients2.102 to 5 years
10T8 Cultivated seafood research1.555 to 10 years or more
Top three under each preset
PresetFirstSecondThird
BalancedT4 (3.90)T1 (3.80)T2 and T5 (3.45)
InvestorsT1 (3.80)T4 (3.50)T2 (3.40)
Policy makersT4 (3.95)T5 (3.85)T2 (3.65)
StartupsT1 (4.15)T4 (3.85)T2 (3.35)
F&B and feed manufacturersT1 (4.15)T4 (3.75)T2 (3.45)
Research bodiesT4 (4.15)T5 (4.00)T2 (3.70)
International bodies and DFIsT4 (4.10)T5 (3.85)T1 (3.65)

Looking to 2050 (Drivers to 2050 to Robust moves, new in edition 1.1)

Every value below is a published projection, our estimate or, for the vision, a normative goal. None is a forecast.

10.4 Mt (+44% on 2025)
Soybean-meal need in 2050 on trend
2025 baseOur calculation
Context and sources

Our balance model on trend diets and trend efficiency: 7.2 Mt (2025), 8.5 (2030), 10.0 (2040), 10.4 (2050), nearly all imported. Published projections stop at 2035. 56,1

Protein balance 2050 →

7.0 to 11.7 Mt
Soybean-meal need in 2050 across four scenarios
2025 baseOur calculation
Context and sources

S-EFF 7.0, S-ALT 8.8, S-BASE 10.4, S-HIGH 11.7 Mt. Only the efficiency scenario keeps imports at or below the 2025 level. 56

Protein balance 2050 →

3.4 Mt against 1.6 Mt of soybean meal saved
Efficiency against alternative protein, 2050
2050Our calculation
Context and sources

Against trend, feed conversion improving 1.0% a year (livestock) and 0.8% (aquaculture) instead of 0.4% and 0.3%, and soybean-meal inclusion falling 1% a year, save 3.4 Mt in 2050; replacing 10% of soybean-meal protein, 40% of fishmeal protein and 10% of meat demand with alternatives saves 1.6 Mt. The two add up. 56

Protein balance 2050 →

about 4.0 million ha (2025); 4.7 million ha (2050, trend)
Farmland abroad used for Vietnam's imported feed
2025Our calculation
Context and sources

Imported soybean meal needs about 2.3 million ha (mass allocation) and imported maize 1.6 million ha: together about five times Vietnam's own maize area. Our calculation. 56,4

Protein balance 2050 →

USD 3.3 to 6.5 per kg of protein
Protein from power made in Vietnam, 2050
2026 inputsOur calculation
Context and sources

Our estimate for hydrogen-route protein made in Vietnam: USD 6.9 to 12.6 per kg (2030), 4.7 to 8.6 (2040), 3.3 to 6.5 (2050), against fishmeal protein at 2.6 to 3.8 and soybean-meal protein at about 0.88 per kg (2025 to 2026 prices). 57,58

Frontier technology →

7% a year at 2 °C; 86% at 4 °C
Chance of a joint maize failure in the four largest exporters
published model
Context and sources

Probability that all four largest maize exporters (87% of world exports) lose more than 10% in the same year: near zero today, 7% at 2 °C of warming (around the 2040s), 86% at 4 °C. Vietnam imports about three-quarters of its maize. 59

Drivers to 2050 →

Four worlds in 2050

Two axes: feed-protein import stress (benign to chronic) and Asia's fermentation market (Chinese price dominance to open)

Fermentation market: Chinese price dominance (bottom) to open (top)

SC-A Regional workshop

Import stress: benign. Fermentation market: open.

Cheap imports, open region: Vietnam specialises in contract fermentation and functional ingredients

  • Grows from 2035: Scenario 3
  • Soybean-meal need 2050: 7.0 to 10.4 Mt (indicative)
  • Microbial feed-protein share 2050: 1 to 2% (indicative)

SC-B Comfortable price-taker

Import stress: benign. Fermentation market: Chinese price dominance.

Cheap soy and cheap Chinese products leave little room for domestic production

  • Grows from 2035: Scenario 1
  • Soybean-meal need 2050: 10.4 to 11.7 Mt (indicative)
  • Microbial feed-protein share 2050: 1% or less (indicative)

SC-C Security build-out

Import stress: chronic. Fermentation market: open.

Dear imports and regional co-operation make residues, aquafeed buyers and clean power a base

  • Grows from 2035: Scenario 2, then 3
  • Soybean-meal need 2050: 7.0 to 8.8 Mt (indicative)
  • Microbial feed-protein share 2050: 4 to 8% (indicative)

SC-D Squeezed importer

Import stress: chronic. Fermentation market: Chinese price dominance.

Stressed imports and Chinese scale: efficiency and local niches carry the load

  • Grows from 2035: Scenario 1 under stress
  • Soybean-meal need 2050: 7.0 to 10.4 Mt (indicative)
  • Microbial feed-protein share 2050: 1 to 3% domestic (indicative)
Import stress: benign (left) to chronic (right)

Scenarios, not forecasts; no probabilities.

Sources: 60,61,62,63

Show dataHide data
Four worlds in 2050
WorldNameImport stressFermentation marketSummaryGrows from 2035Soybean-meal need 2050 (Mt, indicative)Microbial share 2050 (indicative)
SC-ARegional workshopbenignopenCheap imports, open region: Vietnam specialises in contract fermentation and functional ingredientsScenario 37.0 to 10.41 to 2%
SC-BComfortable price-takerbenignChinese price dominanceCheap soy and cheap Chinese products leave little room for domestic productionScenario 110.4 to 11.71% or less
SC-CSecurity build-outchronicopenDear imports and regional co-operation make residues, aquafeed buyers and clean power a baseScenario 2, then 37.0 to 8.84 to 8%
SC-DSqueezed importerchronicChinese price dominanceStressed imports and Chinese scale: efficiency and local niches carry the loadScenario 1 under stress7.0 to 10.41 to 3% domestic
World in 2050ImportsAsia's fermentation marketWhat Vietnam does best
A. Regional workshopCheap and ampleOpenContract fermentation; functional aquafeed and food ingredients
B. Comfortable price-takerCheap and ampleChinese price dominanceLittle beyond local niches; efficiency
C. Security build-outDear and unreliableOpenResidue-based feed protein; protein from power in the 2040s
D. Squeezed importerDear and unreliableChinese price dominanceEfficiency; non-traded local feeds
9 of 21 moves
No-regret moves for 2026 to 2030
2026 assessmentOur calculation
Context and sources

A protein and feed balance; feed efficiency and formulation; new-food and new-feed routes with deadlines; shared pilot and trial capacity; a quality laboratory and price series; residue-carbon rules; an omega-3 plan; climate-proof siting; process skills. Our judgement. 63,64

Robust moves →

7 to 9 Mt, against 10.4 Mt on trend
Vision: soybean-meal need in 2050
visionOur calculationVision, not forecast
Context and sources

Normative goal, not a forecast: a credible ambitious range based on the efficiency and alternative-protein scenarios and on China's and Norway's achieved pace. Holding imports at 7.2 Mt is a stretch. 56,65,66

Vision 2050 →

Sources cited on this page

All sources (Appendix T)

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