How to read this report
What the report covers, how it is organised, what the evidence tags, confidence levels and (in Part V) foresight tags mean, and the conventions for numbers, names and corrections.
On this page
What it covers
- Supply side. Raw materials, processes, manufacturing capacity, rules, capital, science and skills. Consumer marketing and retail market forecasts are out of scope, except where business-to-business demand (feed mills, food makers) decides whether supply is viable.
- Food and feed. Plant-based, fermentation-based (biomass and precision fermentation), microalgae and duckweed, and cultivated meat and seafood.
- Insects appear as the incumbent alternative feed protein and the benchmark others must match. The report does not recommend insect plays.
- Motivation. The report leads with food and feed security, industrial value and trade. Environmental and animal-welfare benefits are stated as motivations for some actors, not as the main case.
How it is organised
| Layer | What it is | Who it is for |
|---|---|---|
| Executive summary (English and Vietnamese) and "At a glance" | The findings and recommended steps in 10 minutes | Everyone |
| Six audience briefs | What matters for one type of reader, with links into the report | Investors, policy makers, startups, manufacturers, research bodies, international organisations |
| Main report, 20 chapters in five parts | The macro picture and our reading of it; Part V (chapters 15 to 20, edition 1.1) looks to 2050 | Readers who want the argument |
| Appendices A to Z | The detailed evidence: tables, directories, legal register, costs, science, open questions, sources; U to Z hold the futures evidence and the balance model | Analysts, due diligence, researchers |
Data files (data/) and tools (tools/) | 92 tables behind the chapters, and the reproducible balance model | Anyone who wants to reuse or check the numbers |
Evidence tags
Most claims end with a tag like .
| Label | Meaning |
|---|---|
| VN-direct | Evidence about Vietnam itself |
| VN-adjacent | Evidence from a comparable country (usually Thailand, Singapore, China or Korea) or the same species or crop, with the transfer stated |
| general | Global evidence, with no claim that it applies to Vietnam as is |
| Confidence | Meaning |
|---|---|
| High | Primary source read directly (a law, official statistics, a peer-reviewed paper, a company filing) |
| Medium | Reputable secondary source, or a primary source read in part |
| Low | A single claim, press or company marketing, or our own derivation from weak inputs |
Numbers we calculated ourselves are marked "our calculation" or "derived", with inputs shown in the appendices.
Foresight tags (Part V)
Forward-looking claims in chapters 15 to 20 and appendices U to Z carry a second badge after the evidence tag, and always state the year or years they refer to.
| Tag | Meaning |
|---|---|
| trend | An observed, measured change that we expect to continue |
| projection | A number from a published model, or an official target; the text says which |
| estimate | Our own calculation from stated assumptions |
| signal | An early development (a pilot, paper, patent or draft policy) that may or may not scale |
| wildcard | A low-probability, high-impact event |
| vision | A normative goal we put forward for discussion; used only for the vision in Vision 2050 and its key numbers |
Scenarios describe what could happen, not what will; we give no probabilities unless a published source does. The method is in U. Futures method. Where sources disagree, we give both and state the position we took; we never average disagreeing numbers (R. Disagreements).
Citations
Bracketed codes such as 1 link to entries in the source list (T. Sources, data/sources.csv). The prefix shows which research stream found the source (for example MAC for the macro protein economy, REG for regulation, FM for feed markets; in Part V, for example QNT for the balance model, CLM for climate and HSC for the horizon scan).
Corrections
Earlier internal drafts of this work contained errors. Where a figure in this edition replaces one that circulated earlier, a Correction box says so. All corrections are listed in B. Corrections.
Conventions
- Units. Mt = million tonnes; kt = thousand tonnes; t = tonne. Ranges are written "4 to 8 Mt".
- Currency. USD unless stated. VND is converted at 26,000 VND per USD unless stated.
- Dates. The year a number refers to is stated. "2025/26" is a marketing year.
- Places. Vietnam merged its provinces on 1 July 2025 (63 to 34) and abolished the district tier. We use current names, with the former unit in brackets where it helps: "Tay Ninh (former Long An)". A crosswalk is in P. Admin map.
- Ministries. Current names after the March 2025 mergers: MAE (agriculture and environment), MOST (science and technology), MOF (finance, including former planning and investment), MOIT (industry and trade), MOH (health).
- Vietnamese terms are italicised with a gloss on first use, for example đồ chay (traditional vegetarian food). A bilingual glossary is in S. Glossary.
Limits
Desk research in two waves for edition 1.0 and three futures waves for edition 1.1, with limited general web search after the first wave; a retail audit in two cities; no interviews or stakeholder workshops in either edition. See A. Method and Unknowns. This is not investment, legal or engineering advice.
Sources cited on this page
- MAC-04 USDA FAS GAIN. Vietnam: Oilseeds and Products Annual, report VM2026-0006 (Nguyen Linh). 15 Apr 2026