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Audience brief

Brief for international organisations and development finance

For development agencies, DFIs, foundations, NGOs and foreign governments. Vietnam's alternative-protein frontier is held back by public goods rather than ideas: a novel-food procedure, feed-list clarity, trial and testing capacity, shared pilot fermentation and data. These are cheap relative to their effect and fit technical assistance, research grants and first-loss development finance.

8 min readInternational organisationsWhat the tags mean
On this page
  1. Why Vietnam matters
  2. Six entry points
  3. Precedents to build on
  4. Motivations and framing
  5. Coordination
  6. Looking to 2050 (edition 1.1)

The short version. Vietnam is a protein-processing economy that imports its plant protein. It has cheap inputs and a strong feed industry, but ranks joint last in the region on regulatory readiness, has no open pilot fermentation and almost no venture capital for this sector. The leverage points are public goods and first-plant finance. Several can be supported through existing channels (regulator-to-regulator cooperation, research grants, development-finance co-investment) at modest cost.

Why Vietnam matters

  • About 99% of the soy protein in Vietnamese feed and three-quarters of the maize supply are imported, a feed-ingredient import bill of roughly USD 10 billion in 2025 (Why Vietnam).
  • Vietnam exported USD 11.3 billion of seafood in 2025; aquafeed is where fishmeal prices bite, and where alternative feed proteins have their clearest market (Why Vietnam, Economics).
  • The regional comparison scores Vietnam 100 on labour and 0 on regulatory readiness. Its recommended fix is a published novel-food procedure with statutory timelines (Region).

Cheap but unready: how a regional study scores Vietnam

GFI APAC and Hawkwood "Where to Build" (2025), scores 0 to 100, 100 = best of nine countries

Cheap but unready: how a regional study scores VietnamHeatmap: Vietnam scores 100 on labour, 97 on utilities and 93 on construction, but 26 on sugar and talent, 30 on business environment and 0 on regulatory readiness.Score:0 to 1415 to 2829 to 4243 to 5758 to 7172 to 8586 to 100Cost driversEnabling driversConstructioncostUtilitiesLabourSugarcapabilityTalentBusinessenvironmentRegulatoryreadinessVietnamVietnam, Construction cost: 93 out of 100 Group: cost93Vietnam, Utilities: 97 out of 100 Group: cost97Vietnam, Labour: 100 out of 100 Group: cost100Vietnam, Sugar capability: 26 out of 100 Group: enabling26Vietnam, Talent: 26 out of 100 Group: enabling26Vietnam, Business environment: 30 out of 100 Group: enabling30Vietnam, Regulatory readiness: 0 out of 100 Group: enabling0ThailandThailand, Construction cost: 81 out of 100 Group: cost81Thailand, Utilities: 84 out of 100 Group: cost84Thailand, Labour: 99 out of 100 Group: cost99Thailand, Sugar capability: 100 out of 100 Group: enabling100Thailand, Talent: 36 out of 100 Group: enabling36Thailand, Business environment: 74 out of 100 Group: enabling74Thailand, Regulatory readiness: 50 out of 100 Group: enabling50IndonesiaIndonesia, Construction cost: 100 out of 100 Group: cost100Indonesia, Utilities: 99 out of 100 Group: cost99Indonesia, Labour: 100 out of 100 Group: cost100Indonesia, Sugar capability: 14 out of 100 Group: enabling14Indonesia, Talent: 18 out of 100 Group: enabling18Indonesia, Business environment: 29 out of 100 Group: enabling29Indonesia, Regulatory readiness: 0 out of 100 Group: enabling0PhilippinesPhilippines, Construction cost: 94 out of 100 Group: cost94Philippines, Utilities: 75 out of 100 Group: cost75Philippines, Labour: 97 out of 100 Group: cost97Philippines, Sugar capability: 31 out of 100 Group: enabling31Philippines, Talent: 17 out of 100 Group: enabling17Philippines, Business environment: 0 out of 100 Group: enabling0Philippines, Regulatory readiness: 0 out of 100 Group: enabling0MalaysiaMalaysia, Construction cost: 38 out of 100 Group: cost38Malaysia, Utilities: 87 out of 100 Group: cost87Malaysia, Labour: 93 out of 100 Group: cost93Malaysia, Sugar capability: 0 out of 100 Group: enabling0Malaysia, Talent: 29 out of 100 Group: enabling29Malaysia, Business environment: 80 out of 100 Group: enabling80Malaysia, Regulatory readiness: 0 out of 100 Group: enabling0AustraliaAustralia, Construction cost: 0 out of 100 Group: cost0Australia, Utilities: 13 out of 100 Group: cost13Australia, Labour: 0 out of 100 Group: cost0Australia, Sugar capability: 60 out of 100 Group: enabling60Australia, Talent: 50 out of 100 Group: enabling50Australia, Business environment: 79 out of 100 Group: enabling79Australia, Regulatory readiness: 100 out of 100 Group: enabling100South KoreaSouth Korea, Construction cost: 22 out of 100 Group: cost22South Korea, Utilities: 80 out of 100 Group: cost80South Korea, Labour: 29 out of 100 Group: cost29South Korea, Sugar capability: 0 out of 100 Group: enabling0South Korea, Talent: 68 out of 100 Group: enabling68South Korea, Business environment: 91 out of 100 Group: enabling91South Korea, Regulatory readiness: 50 out of 100 Group: enabling50JapanJapan, Construction cost: 5 out of 100 Group: cost5Japan, Utilities: 47 out of 100 Group: cost47Japan, Labour: 27 out of 100 Group: cost27Japan, Sugar capability: 11 out of 100 Group: enabling11Japan, Talent: 49 out of 100 Group: enabling49Japan, Business environment: 65 out of 100 Group: enabling65Japan, Regulatory readiness: 50 out of 100 Group: enabling50SingaporeSingapore, Construction cost: 25 out of 100 Group: cost25Singapore, Utilities: 27 out of 100 Group: cost27Singapore, Labour: 26 out of 100 Group: cost26Singapore, Sugar capability: 0 out of 100 Group: enabling0Singapore, Talent: 55 out of 100 Group: enabling55Singapore, Business environment: 100 out of 100 Group: enabling100Singapore, Regulatory readiness: 100 out of 100 Group: enabling100

Scores are relative ranks among nine countries, not cost estimates. See ch08 critique.

Source: 1

Show dataHide data
Cheap but unready: how a regional study scores Vietnam
CountryDriverDriver groupScore (0 to 100)
VietnamSugar capabilityenabling26
VietnamConstruction costcost93
VietnamUtilitiescost97
VietnamLabourcost100
VietnamTalentenabling26
VietnamBusiness environmentenabling30
VietnamRegulatory readinessenabling0
ThailandSugar capabilityenabling100
ThailandConstruction costcost81
ThailandUtilitiescost84
ThailandLabourcost99
ThailandTalentenabling36
ThailandBusiness environmentenabling74
ThailandRegulatory readinessenabling50
IndonesiaSugar capabilityenabling14
IndonesiaConstruction costcost100
IndonesiaUtilitiescost99
IndonesiaLabourcost100
IndonesiaTalentenabling18
IndonesiaBusiness environmentenabling29
IndonesiaRegulatory readinessenabling0
PhilippinesSugar capabilityenabling31
PhilippinesConstruction costcost94
PhilippinesUtilitiescost75
PhilippinesLabourcost97
PhilippinesTalentenabling17
PhilippinesBusiness environmentenabling0
PhilippinesRegulatory readinessenabling0
MalaysiaSugar capabilityenabling0
MalaysiaConstruction costcost38
MalaysiaUtilitiescost87
MalaysiaLabourcost93
MalaysiaTalentenabling29
MalaysiaBusiness environmentenabling80
MalaysiaRegulatory readinessenabling0
AustraliaSugar capabilityenabling60
AustraliaConstruction costcost0
AustraliaUtilitiescost13
AustraliaLabourcost0
AustraliaTalentenabling50
AustraliaBusiness environmentenabling79
AustraliaRegulatory readinessenabling100
South KoreaSugar capabilityenabling0
South KoreaConstruction costcost22
South KoreaUtilitiescost80
South KoreaLabourcost29
South KoreaTalentenabling68
South KoreaBusiness environmentenabling91
South KoreaRegulatory readinessenabling50
JapanSugar capabilityenabling11
JapanConstruction costcost5
JapanUtilitiescost47
JapanLabourcost27
JapanTalentenabling49
JapanBusiness environmentenabling65
JapanRegulatory readinessenabling50
SingaporeSugar capabilityenabling0
SingaporeConstruction costcost25
SingaporeUtilitiescost27
SingaporeLabourcost26
SingaporeTalentenabling55
SingaporeBusiness environmentenabling100
SingaporeRegulatory readinessenabling100

Six entry points

Entry pointWhat it would doChannelsLinks
1. Novel-food drafting supportHelp MOH draft the new-food clause and decree (not-novel determination, reliance lane, recognised assessment units, timelines)Regulator-to-regulator agreements (Singapore SFA's MOUs), FAO food-safety workPolicy options options 1 and 5
2. Feed-list and trial capacityFund public trials of microbial proteins in shrimp, pangasius, pigs and poultry; support the aquafeed-list fixAgricultural research grants; bilateral programmesPO-017, PO-018, PO-021
3. Protein-quality laboratoryAmino-acid and DIAAS testing at a national reference laboratoryTechnical assistance; equipment grantsPO-027
4. Shared pilot fermentationCo-fund a food-grade pilot line and tolling programme; broker access to Thailand's EECi pilot plantGrants; blended finance; bilateral science cooperationPO-026, PO-033
5. First-plant financeA first-loss or co-investment tranche for a first fermentation-feed plant, following the Entobel structure (private equity, DFI, offtake)IFC, ADB Ventures, Proparco (via local funds), other DFIsCapital
6. Open dataA yearly by-product atlas, an open fermentation cost model, a regional Asian fishmeal price seriesResearch grants; statistical cooperationPO-028; Plays P5, P6

Precedents to build on

  • Entobel: IFC's USD 2.5 million upstream collaboration alongside Mekong Capital and Dragon Capital, with Vinh Hoan's offtake (Capital).
  • Decree 43/2026: Vietnam already fast-tracks GMOs approved by five developed countries; the same reliance logic can apply to novel foods (Rules).
  • Thailand's recognised assessment units and Korea's amendment of an existing rule in about nine months (Region).

Motivations and framing

AltProtein Vietnam frames the case around food and feed security, industrial value and trade. Climate and animal welfare are motivations for many international funders; in Vietnam, livestock accounted for about 5.8% of national greenhouse-gas emissions in 2016, and the grid emits about 0.66 kg CO2 per kWh, so climate claims for power-intensive processes need care (Why Vietnam, Economics).

Coordination

After the March 2025 mergers, MAE holds feed, aquafeed, GMO biosafety and genetic resources; MOST holds standards, the sandbox, high-tech status and IP; MOH holds food safety. A joint programme across these three ministries is administratively simpler than before (Rules).

Read next: Capital · Region · Policy options · M. Capital · N. Regional

Looking to 2050 (edition 1.1)

  • Where long-horizon support has leverage: a national protein and feed balance (the EU's new balance-sheet method is a ready template); a review cycle for the vision at each five-year plan; climate-proof siting in a Mekong Delta that sinks about 1.1 cm a year; concessional finance windows ready to open when signposts trip; and Vietnam's part in any ASEAN reliance on novel-food approvals (Robust moves).
  • Just transition is about farm incomes, not factory jobs. A 10 kt a year plant employs 60 to 100 people; the households most affected by a protein shift are the remaining small pig and poultry farms, and the ones who could gain are cassava, rice-straw and brewery-residue suppliers.
  • Climate finance hardly reaches food (about 7% of climate finance in 2021 and 2022), no approved carbon-credit method exists for protein substitution, and green-bond criteria for alternative proteins appeared in 2025.
  • A jointly authored vision has a precedent: Vietnam 2035 was written by the World Bank and the planning ministry. Our Vietnam 2050 protein vision is offered for that kind of discussion (Vision 2050, Y. Targets and hubs).
9 of 21 moves
No-regret moves for 2026 to 2030
2026 assessmentOur calculation
Context and sources

A protein and feed balance; feed efficiency and formulation; new-food and new-feed routes with deadlines; shared pilot and trial capacity; a quality laboratory and price series; residue-carbon rules; an omega-3 plan; climate-proof siting; process skills. Our judgement. 2,3

Robust moves →

about 1.1 cm a year
Mekong Delta subsidence from groundwater pumping
about 2015 (2017 study)
Context and sources

About three times the current rate of global sea-level rise (IPCC AR6: 3.7 mm a year, 2006 to 2018); the delta sits on average about 0.8 m above sea level. Subsidence to 2100 ranges from 12 to 100 cm depending on extraction policy. 4,5,6,7

Drivers to 2050 →

Sources cited on this page

All sources (Appendix T)

  1. RGN-01 Morton, J., Powell, D. (GFI APAC) and Day, T. (Hawkwood Biotech). Where to Build: site selection and competitiveness in APAC fermentation manufacturing. October 2025
  2. VIS-35 Bock A.-K., Bontoux L.. Food safety and nutrition: how to prepare for a challenging future? New approaches for using scenarios for policy-making. 2017
  3. VIS-36 Riera A., Duluins O., Antier C., Baret P.V.. Which types of quantitative foresight scenarios to frame the future of food systems? A review. 2025
  4. CLM-12 Minderhoud P.S.J., Coumou L., Erkens G., Middelkoop H., Stouthamer E.. Mekong delta much lower than previously assumed in sea-level rise impact assessments. 2019
  5. CLM-13 Minderhoud P.S.J. et al.. Impacts of 25 years of groundwater extraction on subsidence in the Mekong delta, Vietnam. 2017
  6. CLM-14 Minderhoud P.S.J., Middelkoop H., Erkens G., Stouthamer E.. Groundwater extraction may drown mega-delta: projections of extraction-induced subsidence and elevation of the Mekong delta for the 21st century. Dec 2019
  7. CLM-28 IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. 2021