Chapter 12 · Part III
12. The incumbent: chay, tofu and soy milk
Chay, vegetarian eating on lunar days and festivals, is Vietnam's largest plant-protein occasion, served by tofu, soy milk, mushrooms and cheap mock meat, and we estimate that existing chay days already avoid about 25,000 t of meat protein a year. It is the cheapest place to launch a higher-protein ingredient, but the wrong place to count meat displacement.
On this page
- 12.1 How many people eat chay: unmeasured, but capped
- 12.2 The lunar calendar in the till
- 12.3 The size of the incumbent
- 12.4 What chay buyers value, tolerate and fear
- 12.5 Price: cheap per kilogram, dear per gram of protein
- 12.6 A channel, but not a displacement route
- 12.7 What this means for the frontier
In one paragraph. In Vietnamese usage chay is three things at once: a practice (not eating animal flesh on set days of the lunar month and at festivals), a cuisine (cơm chay, bún chay) and a product category (the frozen thực phẩm chay aisle). It is Vietnam's largest plant-protein eating occasion, and it is served by tofu, soy milk, mushrooms and cheap industrial đồ chay (traditional vegetarian food), not by modern analogues. No survey asks about chay days, but national diet surveillance caps them: on an ordinary day in late 2021, 7.9% of adults ate no meat, poultry or fish. Revealed signals are strong and regular: specialist sellers report two to three times normal sales in the seventh lunar month, and mainstream retail 15 to 40% more. On a stated assumption that about 30% of people keep 2 to 3 chay days a month, chay days are about 2.5% of all person-days (about a third of that ceiling; about 5% is the practical upper bound) and already avoid about 25,000 t of meat protein a year, as much as the Part IV alternative-protein scenario assumes for 2030 to 2035. Chay foods are cheaper than meat per kilogram but protein-poor, so they are expensive per gram of protein. Their trust problems are borax, microbes and unlabelled goods rather than hidden meat, and the national vegetarian standard is voluntary and broader than Buddhist chay. For frontier actors chay is a ready shelf, cold chain and set of buyers for a higher-protein ingredient, and the wrong place to count meat displacement.
12.1 How many people eat chay: unmeasured, but capped
- The religious base. Pew Research Center's face-to-face probability survey (n = 2,255, June to September 2023) found that 38% of Vietnamese adults identify as Buddhist, 48% report no religion and 86% offered food or drink to ancestors in the past year. It asked nothing about diet 1 . Official counts of Buddhists differ threefold: 4.6 million in the 2019 census against more than 14 million registered followers in the 2023 government White Paper 2,3 . Lay people who keep lunar chay days include many who say they have no religion.
- The calendar. The schedules described in academic and press sources are consistent: two days a month (the 1st and 15th of the lunar month, mùng một and ngày rằm), four days (adding the 14th and the last day), eight or ten days, and whole months, above all the 1st lunar month and the 7th, which holds the Vu Lan festival 4,5,6,7 . Every Vietnamese academic survey we found recruited at chay restaurants, pagodas or universities, so none gives a prevalence 4,5,8 .
- A ceiling from national diet data. No probability survey asks about chay, but one asks about diet. The Diet Quality Questionnaire (Gallup, 1,007 adults by mobile telephone, 13 November to 12 December 2021, an ordinary month with two principal chay days) found that 92.1% of adults had eaten meat, poultry or fish on the previous day, so 7.9% (95% interval 5.3 to 11.0%) had a flesh-free day (our calculation from the published share) 9,10,11 . A chay day is flesh-free, so this caps chay-day person-days. Vietnam sits mid-region on this measure, below Thailand (9.8%) and China (14.9%) and above the Philippines (5.8%) and Cambodia (3.3%); food lists differ, so the comparison is indicative 9,11 . Lunar chay days do not make Vietnam an outlier in meat-free days. 7.9% (5.3 to 11.0)
- Online panels overstate it. Rakuten Insight's online panel (n = 4,018, November 2021) found 86% had eaten "plant-based alternatives", the highest of 13 markets, and 10% said they eat only plant-based food 12 . Vietnamese respondents count tofu, soy milk and đồ chay as plant-based, so these numbers measure familiarity with the incumbent, not demand for new products.
- Rejected. The widely repeated "about 10% of Vietnamese are vegetarian" has no survey behind it and we do not use it 13,14 . National diet data contradict it: only 7.9% of adults (at most 11.0%) had a flesh-free day, and that share must hold chay keepers as well as any full-time vegetarians 9 .
The single cheapest piece of missing evidence in Part III is still a chay-day question in a probability survey (Demand to frontier). A cheaper first step exists: Gallup holds the interview dates of the 2021 survey, so the flesh-free share on recall days that fell on the lunar 1st or 15th can be compared with other days. About 65 recall days fall on the two principal chay days, enough to detect a doubling but not a small effect (our calculation) 11 .
12.2 The lunar calendar in the till
Every figure below is a quote to the press, so each is Low on its own. Taken together, across four years, three regions and several independent sellers, they support a Medium-confidence conclusion: chay demand roughly doubles in specialist channels in the 7th lunar month, rises 15 to 40% in mainstream retail, and moves the prices of supply-constrained items (fresh mushrooms) but not of tofu . 2 to 3 times in specialist channels; +15 to 40% in mainstream retail
| Signal | Size | Year and place | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chay shop sales in Vu Lan against previous months | About 2 times; one shop 3 times | 2024, Ho Chi Minh City | 15 |
| GO! hypermarkets, chay sales month on month | +20 to +40% | 2024 | 15 |
| Saigon Co.op chay stock; chay sales | +40%; +20% | 2024 | 15,16 |
| One manufacturer's chay volume, year on year | 3.5 times | 2024 | 16 |
| Hanoi chay sellers, Vu Lan volume | 2 to 3 times, peaking on lunar days 10 to 15 | 2026 | 17 |
| One Ho Chi Minh City tofu maker | Output +15 to +20%, price unchanged | 2026 | 18 |
| Straw and king oyster mushrooms | About VND 150,000 to 160,000 per kg, against 80,000 to 100,000 normally | 2026 | 19 |
| One Hai Phong caterer, chay offering-tray orders | -20 to -30% on 2025 as input costs rose | 2026 | 20 |
| Chinese textured protein (HS 2106.10) shipped to Vietnam, two months before the Vu Lan month | 1.33 times an average month (5 of 6 years); flat to the world and to Thailand | 2019 to 2024 | 21,22 |
Two design lessons follow. Tofu makers flex volume, not price, so tofu stays the price anchor even at the peak. Fresh mushrooms cannot flex supply, so their prices roughly double, which is an opening for a shelf-stable protein that holds its price through the peak. The soft 2026 season is a reminder that chay demand is price sensitive 20,18 .
The calendar reaches the ingredient order book, but in a smaller swing. Monthly trade data show a Vietnam-specific rise of about a third in textured protein shipments before the Vu Lan month, while the same code to other destinations stays flat, and shipments fall to 38% of an average month in the Tết (lunar new year) month, when every Vietnam-bound flow, feed included, dips 21,23,22 . This is revealed evidence that part of the imported textured protein goes into chay on the lunar calendar; it does not size that part (trade_seasonal_summary.csv).
12.3 The size of the incumbent
| Category | What we know | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Soybeans used for food (tofu, soy milk, sauces) | About 550,000 t of beans a year (2025/26), roughly 5 kg per person; FAO food balance sheets agree (533,000 t and 5.31 kg per person in 2023) | 24,25 |
| Tofu bought or made for home use | 0.43 kg per person a month (2024), flat since 2010; about 520,000 t a year (our calculation, home use only) | 26 |
| Daily reach of soy foods and beans | 40.0% of adults ate dried beans, soybeans, tofu, soy milk or bean flour on the previous day (2021); urban 40.5%, rural 39.2% | 9,10 |
| Branded soy milk | About VND 5,300 billion (USD 204 million) in 2025 (our derivation from Vinasoy revenue and its 90.6% share of branded soy milk in 2024, per Bao Viet Securities; the supply chapters use about 80% of all soy milk, an older and broader base) | 27,28,29 |
| Mushrooms | 250,000 to 270,000 t produced (press citing institutes; another source gives a tenth of this) | 30,31 |
| Industrial đồ chay | No audited sales figure found; Vissan's 2026 plan gives no chay split, its 2026 shareholder meeting set no chay target, and its only 2026 chay news was two Vu Lan dumpling products | 32,33,34 |
| Retailers' own-label chay | Co.op Select frozen chay dumplings, spring rolls and rice rolls made by GN Foods; Lotte Mart Choice L chay spring rolls and dumplings | 35,36,37 |
| Chay restaurants | At least 3,275 listings on Foody in 23 former provinces (1,873 in Ho Chi Minh City, 401 in Hanoi, 201 in Da Nang), cumulative and including closed venues | 38 |
| Chains | The largest we could count, Loving Hut, has 14 outlets; premium Chay Garden 2; Hum 3 (2018) | 39,40,41 |
| Pagoda kitchens | 18,544 Buddhist places of worship; meals and purchasing unmeasured | 3 |
Tofu is the country's plant-protein staple, but it is flat and northern. Households in the Red River Delta use 0.69 kg a month, 3.6 times the Mekong Delta's 0.19 kg 26 . Soy milk is the one plant category that sells at national scale through modern brands, and it grew in 2025: Vinasoy sold 264 million litres (up 4%) and its revenue rose 14% for the year, with soy-milk revenue up 22% in the fourth quarter, partly bought with promotion 42,43,29,44 . Why plant milk worked where plant meat did not is discussed in Consumers.
The published market sizes for Vietnamese vegetarian or vegan food (USD 103 to 112 million, "USD 1 billion", "USD 500 million") have no visible method and we do not use them 45,14 .
12.4 What chay buyers value, tolerate and fear
Imitation meat is mainstream and religiously tolerated. Monks quoted in Buddhist media call giả mặn (chay food that imitates meat) a skilful means that reduces killing; a minority of Buddhist writers say it keeps the mind attached to meat; we found no binding Sangha ruling against it 46,47,48 . Mock meats were the fastest sellers in Ho Chi Minh City chay shops in Vu Lan 2024 7 . A 2019 southern study found that periodic eaters prefer processed foods in their chay meals while strict vegetarians mostly eat unprocessed plant foods 4 . That is the key split: the periodic majority buys mock meat; the strict minority buys whole foods. Northern sellers reported in 2026 that buyers are moving from "industrial" chay to mushrooms, lotus, beans and vegetables 17,20 ; we log this as a possible regional difference or trend (R2. Disagreements).
The allium rule binds a minority. Strict Buddhist cooking avoids the five pungent plants (ngũ vị tân: onion or scallion, chives, garlic and two small alliums). The Sangha newspaper's advisory panel says this binds people who have taken the Bodhisattva precepts, not lay people keeping lunar days 49 . Mainstream industrial chay ignores it: in our re-read of the retail audit, at least 36% of chay-named products with an ingredient list name onion, garlic, shallot or leek, and at least 5% name egg or dairy 37 (D3. Retail demand signals). Allium-free and egg-free variants are a requirement for pagoda kitchens, offerings and strict buyers, not for the mass market.
Trust is the weakest point, and the problem is safety, not hidden meat. Unlabelled mock meat at VND 60,000 to 250,000 per kg is sold openly in Ho Chi Minh City markets; inspectors seized a tonne of untraceable chả chay in 2025 and 500 kg of unlabelled Chinese textured soy sold as "chay spare ribs" in 2022 50,51,52 . The recurring cases are about safety: borax in chả đòn chay (chay pork roll; 6,573 kg seized in An Giang in 2022) and in tofu skin, a botulism case in 2020, and additives, dyes and reused oil in the main 2026 exposé 53,54,55,50 . Meat in chay is a latent rumour, not a live scandal. A Can Tho University team built a DNA test for meat in vegetarian food, citing "many cases" of meat found in chay foods, but tested no market samples 56 . We found no press or official report confirming meat in a Vietnamese chay product from 2015 to 2026. The only official case is an April 2021 seizure of more than 3 t of chả đòn chay in An Giang on suspicion of meat and fish, with no published result; meat-in-chay stories circulate as a relayed 2015 Taiwanese scandal and as social-media videos 57,58,59 . 0 (2015 to 2026)
Inspections check papers, not meat. After the 2020 botulism case, Hanoi inspected 93 chay facilities and fined 14 a total of VND 55 million; the checks covered hygiene, origin papers and storage, and no meat content was reported. We found no official report of meat-DNA testing of chay 55,60 . The test is available: since February 2025 the state testing centre QUATEST 3 has sold a real-time PCR screen for 86 animal species at 0.001% 61 .
Certification is voluntary and broader than Buddhist chay. The national standard TCVN 13625:2023 (equivalent to ISO 23662:2021) defines vegetarian and vegan claims, but its "vegetarian" allows egg, milk and honey and it has no allium rule, so its chay is broader than the chay that pagoda kitchens buy. V-Label is offered through SGS; we found no national or Buddhist chay certification in use 62,63,64 . A false chay claim is already unlawful, because labels must be truthful and names must not mislead about composition 65,66 .
12.5 Price: cheap per kilogram, dear per gram of protein
Street chay costs VND 15,000 to 30,000 a plate against VND 29,000 to 35,000 for a meat rice plate in Ho Chi Minh City in 2026 67,68,69 . In modern retail, Vissan's frozen chay line sold 38% below its meat version 37 ; the other same-brand pairs we found are low confidence and range from 52% below to 19% above the meat version 37 . Premium chay dining costs VND 239,000 to 379,000 a head at a premium buffet (2026) and VND 350,000 to 400,000 a bill at a well-known restaurant (2022) 70,71 .
Per gram of protein the picture reverses. With a median of 4.7 g of protein per 100 g, filled chay wrappers cost a median VND 369,000 per 100 g of protein and market mock meat roughly VND 120,000 to 200,000, against VND 66,000 for tofu on label values 37,17 . The buyer does not see this, because chay is bought per kilogram and per plate. It defines the headroom for a better ingredient: at today's shelf price, a chả (sausage or loaf) with 12 g of protein per 100 g would deliver protein at roughly VND 50,000 to 75,000 per 100 g, in tofu's range (our calculation) .
12.6 A channel, but not a displacement route
Where chay is a ready channel. Signed frozen chay sections with several brands exist in the modern chains we audited, and markets carry fresh and loose chay 37,7 . Buyers already pay for chay chicken, fish, shrimp, ham, sausages and spare ribs, so a higher-protein analogue asks no one to accept a new idea. Retailers already commission own-label chay from Vietnamese makers, so a better ingredient can reach the shelf through a co-packer 35,36 . Demand is predictable, with fortnightly peaks and two big months a year. And the high-protein chay products already rely on imported Chinese textured soy or gluten (Alt protein today), so a domestic replacement is a purchasing decision by manufacturers, not a behaviour change by consumers .
Where it resists. Price ceilings are low and 2026 showed volumes falling when costs rose 20,67 . "Industrial" is becoming a negative word for some buyers 17,20 . The strict segment wants whole plants. Offering trays are bought for presentation and freshness, not protein 72 . Chay manufacturers and shop owners, in the interviews we found, talk about price, convenience, freshness, safety and natural ingredients; none asked for more protein.
The displacement arithmetic. On a stated assumption that 30% of people keep 2.5 chay days a month, chay days are about 2.5% of all person-days 1,4 . That uses about a third of the 7.9% flesh-free ceiling from national diet data. The illustrative range we gave earlier (20 to 50% keeping 2 to 4 days, 1.3 to 6.7%) overreaches at the top: 6.7% would need 85% of all flesh-free days to be chay days and exceeds the survey's lower confidence bound of 5.3%, so about 5% of person-days is the practical upper bound (our calculation) 9,10 . Multiplied by average meat protein per person-day, existing chay days avoid about 25,000 t of meat protein a year in 2025 (our calculation, D8. Demand model) . That is the same order as the Part IV S-ALT scenario, which assumes 1% of meat protein (about 11,800 t) replaced by plant-based and fermented foods in 2030 and 3% (about 39,000 t) in 2035 (Protein balance 2050). about 25,000 t a year (about 2.5% of meat protein)
Three consequences follow :
- Chay days are already in the meat baseline. A novel protein that wins chay-day protein replaces tofu, imported textured soy, gluten and mushrooms. It improves nutrition and substitutes imports; it displaces no meat. Retailer ratio methods that count protein-rich foods by weight, as WWF's 2025 method does, would score protein-poor chay foods at face value, so impact should be counted in protein, not kilograms 73 .
- Meat displacement needs either more chay occasions (a third day a month, chay breakfasts, canteen chay days) or entry into ordinary meals. Demand sizing shows that added chay days are, on paper, the cheapest route to the S-ALT volumes. Organised promotion of plant-based eating is small: Humane World for Animals included Viet Nam in its 2025 plant-based menu training (370 or more chefs and 570 or more nutritionists across seven countries), and Dharma Voices for Animals runs a pagoda-based programme at Phap Van Pagoda in Hanoi 74,75 .
- We found no evidence on compensation, that is, whether people who eat chay on the 1st and 15th eat more meat on other days.
12.7 What this means for the frontier
- Sell an ingredient first. The winning first product is a protein base (textured, fungal or blended) that existing chay makers and retailers' own-label co-packers put into chả, giò, nem, dumplings and spring rolls.
- Design target. Lift product protein from 4 to 5 g to 10 to 12 g per 100 g while keeping the shelf price inside today's range (supermarket VND 56,000 to 173,000 per kg; market VND 60,000 to 90,000 per kg for giò and nem) 37,17 . At 10 g per 100 g a food meets the "high protein" (cao đạm) condition of the voluntary standard TCVN 14429:2025; of 43 audited plant-protein foods, the 7 that already meet it are all frozen analogues, and only 6 of 18 filled wrappers reach even the 5 g "source" level 76,37 (Consumers).
- Build for the calendar. At retail, plan capacity and frozen stock for two to three times normal demand in the 1st and 7th lunar months. An ingredient maker should plan for a smaller swing: about a third more orders in the two months before the Vu Lan month and a deep trough in the Tết month 21,23 .
- Lead with safety and a full label. A registered maker, a full label, few additives and a short ingredient list meet the category's live trust problems (borax, microbes, unlabelled goods). "Verified meat-free" is a secondary reassurance, bought cheaply as a PCR screen. Avoid "lab", "future of meat" and environmental claims as the main message.
- Offer allium-free and egg-free variants for pagoda kitchens and strict buyers, clearly labelled.
For each reader.
- Startups: your first customers are chay makers and the co-packers of retailers' own-label chay; price per kilogram of finished product, not per gram of protein, is what their buyers see.
- Investors: underwrite on per-kilogram price parity with existing đồ chay and repeat orders from manufacturers; demand is seasonal and price sensitive.
- Manufacturers: a declared protein content would be new on the chay shelf. The claim conditions are set by TCVN 14429:2025 and need no registration; print the number ("10 g đạm/100 g"), because giàu đạm (rich in protein) is not a defined term. Test reformulations at the Vu Lan and first-month peaks, when trial is highest.
- Research bodies: publish a composition table for chay foods and develop allium-free flavour systems. Test borax, preservatives, microbes and protein first, and add animal DNA as a low-cost screen bought from QUATEST 3. Publish with the Vietnam Food Administration (VFA), publish the methods and do not name small makers: a 2016 consumer-association survey of fish sauce (101 of more than 150 samples flagged) led to delistings, a Ministry of Health rebuttal and a backlash against the testers 61,77 .
- Policy makers: TCVN 13625:2023 already defines vegetarian and vegan claims, and false chay claims are already unlawful. Ask VFA to state that an unqualified chay or thuần chay (vegan) claim means the vegan criteria, with egg or milk named in a qualifier and allium-free left as a voluntary claim. The new Food Safety Law, which the National Assembly takes first comments on in October 2026 and considers for passage in May 2027, and its decree are the window 78,62 . Target safety inspections (borax, microbes, labels) before the 1st and 7th lunar months.
- International organisations and funders: fund the cheapest chay evidence first (a lunar-date tabulation of the 2021 Diet Quality Questionnaire, then a chay-day question in a survey) and a chay safety and composition survey; count impact only for added chay occasions, not upgraded ones, and count it in protein, not kilograms. Match the route to the funder's rules: several diet-change funders exclude Vietnam or this kind of work (Demand sizing, Demand to frontier).
Related: Alt protein today, D1. Diet and prices, D3. Retail demand signals.
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- TRU-14 Dân trí. Đồng Nai kiểm tra các cơ sở sản xuất, kinh doanh thực phẩm chay. 2020-08-31
- LBL-23 Báo Chính phủ (Government online newspaper). Đồng loạt kiểm tra thực phẩm chay. 2020-09-07
- CHY-61 Can Tho University Journal of Science. Bước đầu xây dựng bộ KIT phát hiện sự lẫn tạp DNA một số loại thịt trong thực phẩm chay. 2020
- TRU-18 Dân trí. An Giang: Bắt giữ 3 tấn chả đòn chay không đảm bảo an toàn thực phẩm. 2021-04-22
- TRU-01 VietNamNet. Đồ chay giả mặn độc hại tràn về từ Đài Loan. 2015-02-09
- TRU-30 Facebook pages (Yêu Phan Thiết; Góc quay Bình yên; YAN Foods; YAN Beauty); YouTube (Truyền hình Vĩnh Long). Google search snippets: social media. 2026-09-25
- LBL-24 Báo Chính phủ. Báo Chính phủ search results. 2026-09-25
- TRU-24 Quality Assurance and Testing Centre 3 (QUATEST 3), state technical centre. QUATEST 3 triển khai phương pháp phát hiện DNA động vật trong sản phẩm hoặc nguyên liệu thực phẩm và thức ăn chăn nuôi. 2025-02-04
- LBL-15 MOST (Decision 586/QĐ-BKHCN, 2023); drafted by TCVN/TC/F3. TCVN 13625:2023 (ISO 23662:2021). 2023
- CHY-57 VietQ (Directorate for Standards, Metrology and Quality news site). TCVN 13625:2023 thúc đẩy minh bạch trong ghi nhãn thực phẩm chay. 2024
- CHY-58 SGS Vietnam. V-Label for Vegan and Vegetarian Products. 2026-09-24
- LBL-06 Government of Viet Nam. Nghị định 43/2017/NĐ-CP về nhãn hàng hóa. 2017-04-14
- LBL-09 Thư Viện Pháp Luật. Search results (four exact-phrase queries). 2026-09-25
- CHY-38 Thanh Nien. Quán cơm chay 'thang máy' ở TP.HCM vẫn bán 15.000 đồng/phần. 2026-08-25
- CHY-42 Ngoi Sao / VnExpress. 4 quán chay giá bình dân khu trung tâm. 2024-08-04
- CHY-40 Thanh Nien. Nhiều quán ăn giữ giá cơm 35.000 đồng ở TP.HCM. 2026-05-07
- CHY-33 PasGo (restaurant booking platform). Chay Garden Thảo Điền: Buffet chay. 2026-09-24
- CHY-37 Thanh Nien. Vì sao nhiều nhà hàng ăn chay nổi tiếng ở TP.HCM giá đắt hơn nhà hàng mặn?. 2022-08-15
- CHY-24 VietnamPlus (Vietnam News Agency). Vu Lan market sees strong demand for vegetarian offerings, online services. 2026-08-25
- AFN-34 WWF (Johannes Kraft, WWF-Germany, among authors). WWF Planet-Based Diets Retailer Methodology. 2025-11
- AFN-23 Humane World for Animals. Giving thanks for progress for farmed animals all over the world. 2025-11-26
- AFN-36 Dharma Voices for Animals. Vietnam Project. undated
- LBL-03 MOST; drafted by TCVN/TC/F6, proposed by the Vietnam Standards and Quality Institute. TCVN 14429:2025 Hướng dẫn sử dụng công bố dinh dưỡng và công bố khuyến cáo về sức khỏe. 2025
- TRU-19 Dân trí. "Nhát chém" của Vinastas vào ngành nghề nước mắm truyền thống. 2016-10-23
- APR-07 Dan Tri. Chủ tịch Quốc hội: Sửa luật, thực phẩm đến tay người dân có an toàn không?. 2026-09-24