Appendix D7
D7. Global and Asian demand benchmarks
What happened to demand for alternative protein where it was tried first: adoption and household penetration in the United States, Europe and Asia; price elasticities and price-parity experiments; price gaps against meat; the effects of institutional and nudge interventions, now including Asian public-meal and corporate-menu precedents and what diet-change programmes deliver per meal and per dollar; displacement of meat and dairy, including restaurant evidence of no displacement; and the track record of long-range market forecasts. These anchor the demand model and the scenario labels of Part III.
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What this appendix contains. Benchmarks from markets that ran the modern plant-based experiment first, used in Consumers and to calibrate Demand sizing. Almost all rows are general or VN-adjacent: they say what happened elsewhere, not what will happen in Vietnam. Most come from licensed scanner and household-panel data published by advocacy organisations, or from peer-reviewed studies.
Calibration values used in Part III : peak annual household trial of plant-based meat 19 to 20% (US, 2021) and 32 to 39% (Germany and UK, 2022); households buying monthly or more 8.6 to 10.4%; repeat rate about 60 to 64%; retail share after about ten years 3.1 to 4.1% of pre-packaged meat volume and about 0.7% of total meat value (US); own-price elasticity about -0.8 to -1.6; displacement of meat per unit bought not distinguishable from zero, in shops and, on 1.2 million transactions, in restaurants; plant milk displaces 0.43 to 0.93 units of dairy per unit; plant milk levels off at about 7 to 16% of milk 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11. For institutional routes, the programme benchmark is Sinergia Animal's estimate: about 3.4 meals and 0.5 animals per USD, or about 0.13 animals per meal replaced (D7.4) 12 .
The US reference case: boom and fade
US retail plant-based meat and seafood: sales (USD billion) and share of total meat sales (%)
SPINS data published by GFI.
Show dataHide data
| Year | Sales (USD billion) | Share of total meat sales (%) | Units (million) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 281 |
| 2023 | 1.2 | not reported | 195 |
| 2024 | 1.1 | 0.82 | 194 |
| 2025 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 173 |
D7.1 Adoption trajectories and ceilings
| Country | Category | Metric | Value | Unit | Year | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | plant-based meat and seafood | retail dollar sales | 1.4 | USD billion | 2021 | SPINS MULO plus natural channel | 2 |
| United States | plant-based meat and seafood | retail dollar sales | 1.2 | USD billion | 2023 | SPINS MULO, natural, convenience | 1 |
| United States | plant-based meat and seafood | retail dollar sales | 1.1 | USD billion | 2024 | SPINS | 1 |
| United States | plant-based meat and seafood | retail dollar sales | 1.0 | USD billion | 2025 | SPINS, 52 weeks to 30 Nov 2025 | 1 |
| United States | plant-based meat and seafood | retail unit sales | 281 | million units | 2021 | SPINS | 2 |
| United States | plant-based meat and seafood | retail unit sales | 173 | million units | 2025 | SPINS | 1 |
| United States | plant-based meat | share of total meat dollar sales | 1.4 | percent | 2021 | retail incl. estimated random-weight meat | 2 |
| United States | plant-based meat | share of total meat dollar sales | 0.7 | percent | 2025 | retail incl. estimated random-weight meat | 1 |
| United States | plant-based meat | share of total meat dollar sales, natural channel | 14 | percent | 2021 | SPINS natural channel | 2 |
| United States | plant-based meat | household penetration (bought at least once in year) | 19 | percent | 2021 | Circana panel via SPINS | 2 |
| United States | plant-based meat | household penetration (bought at least once in year) | 11 | percent | 2025 | Circana panel via SPINS | 1 |
| United States | plant-based meat | repeat rate (buyers purchasing more than once in year) | 64 | percent | 2021 | Circana panel via SPINS | 2 |
| United States | plant-based meat | share of plant-based meat buyers who also bought animal meat | 96 | percent | 2025 | Circana panel | 1 |
| United States | plant-based meat | households that bought at least once over two years | 20 | percent | 2018 to 2020 | IRI panel, 38,966 households | 8 |
| United States | plant-based meat | households that never bought | 68 | percent | 2014 to 2019 | NielsenIQ panel, 52,022 households | 13 |
| United States | plant-based milk | share of total milk dollar sales | 12 | percent | 2018 | SPINS | 2 |
| United States | plant-based milk | share of total milk dollar sales | 16 | percent | 2021 | SPINS | 2 |
| United States | plant-based milk | share of total milk dollar sales | 13 | percent | 2025 | SPINS | 1 |
| United States | plant-based milk | household penetration | 42 | percent | 2021 | Circana panel via SPINS | 2 |
| United States | plant-based foods (all) | share of total retail food and beverage dollar sales | 1.1 | percent | 2025 | SPINS | 1 |
| United States | Beyond Meat | company net revenue | 464.7 | USD million | 2021 | global company revenue | 14 |
| Germany | plant-based meat | share of pre-packaged meat sales volume | 3.0 | percent | 2022 | Circana retail incl. discounters | 3 |
| Germany | plant-based meat | share of pre-packaged meat sales volume | 3.1 | percent | 2024 | Circana retail incl. discounters | 3 |
| Germany | plant-based meat | sales volume change | -1.7 | percent | 2025 | Circana | 15 |
| Germany | plant-based meat | households buying at least once per year | 32.2 | percent | 2024 | NIQ Homescan, 20,000 households | 3 |
| Germany | plant-based meat | households buying 12 or more times per year | 9.7 | percent | 2024 | NIQ Homescan | 3 |
| Germany | plant-based milk and drinks | share of milk and dairy drinks sales value | 9.9 | percent | 2024 | Circana | 3 |
| Germany | tofu, tempeh and seitan | sales volume change | 16.7 | percent | 2024 | Circana | 3 |
| Netherlands | plant-based meat | share of pre-packaged meat sales volume | 4.6 | percent | 2022 | Circana | 4 |
| Netherlands | plant-based meat | share of pre-packaged meat sales volume | 4.1 | percent | 2024 | Circana | 4 |
| Netherlands | plant-based meat | sales volume change | -10.7 | percent | 2025 | Circana | 15 |
| Netherlands | all protein in supermarkets | plant share of protein sold (Protein Tracker) | 42.6 | percent | 2025 | 13 chains, about 95% of supermarket sales | 16 |
| Netherlands | plant-based milk and drinks | share of milk sales | 8.9 | percent | 2025 | Circana | 15 |
| United Kingdom | plant-based meat | sales volume | 35.4 | million kg | year to Jan 2025 | Circana, excludes Aldi and Lidl | 5 |
| United Kingdom | plant-based meat | households buying at least once per year | 31.6 | percent | 2024 | NIQ Homescan, 30,000 households | 5 |
| United Kingdom | plant-based meat | households buying 12 or more times per year | 8.6 | percent | 2024 | NIQ Homescan | 5 |
| United Kingdom | plant-based meat | sales volume change | -9.4 | percent | 2025 | Circana | 15 |
| United Kingdom | plant-based milk and drinks | share of milk and dairy drinks sales volume | 6.7 | percent | year to Jan 2025 | Circana | 5 |
| United Kingdom | plant-based alternative foods | share of individuals reporting any consumption | 13.1 | percent | 2017 to 2019 | National Diet and Nutrition Survey, 15,655 people | 17 |
| France | plant-based meat | sales volume change | 16.8 | percent | 2025 | Circana | 15 |
| Spain | plant-based meat | sales volume change | -7.0 | percent | 2025 | Circana | 15 |
| Italy | plant-based meat | sales volume change | 4.1 | percent | 2025 | Circana | 15 |
| Spain | plant-based milk and drinks | share of milk sales | 10.4 | percent | 2025 | Circana | 15 |
| World | plant-based meat and seafood | retail sales value | 6.6 | USD billion | 2025 | Euromonitor via GFI | 18,19 |
| World | plant-based meat and seafood | share of global retail sales in Europe plus North America | 83 | percent | 2025 | Euromonitor via GFI | 18 |
| World | plant-based dairy, meat and other categories | retail sales value | 28.9 | USD billion | 2025 | Euromonitor via GFI | 19,20 |
| Asia Pacific | plant-based dairy | share of global plant-based dairy sales | over 33 | percent | 2025 | Euromonitor via GFI APAC | 21 |
| Asia Pacific | meat and seafood substitutes | peak annual consumption growth | 42 | percent | 2021 | Euromonitor | 22 |
| Thailand | meat alternatives | retail sales value | 20.8 | USD million | 2020 | Euromonitor via USDA FAS | 23 |
| Thailand | dairy alternatives | retail sales value | 803.3 | USD million | 2020 | Euromonitor via USDA FAS | 23 |
| Thailand | meat and seafood substitutes | sales volume change | about 30 | percent | 2021 to 2024 | Euromonitor via Madre Brava | 24 |
| Japan | soy milk (all types) | production | 410712 | kL | 2024 | Japan Soymilk Association | 25 |
| Taiwan | plant-based food | retail sales value | 36.0 | USD million | 2021 | source not named (Euromonitor-type) | 26 |
| Taiwan | vegetarians | population | about 3 | million people | about 2023 | secondary estimate | 26 |
| Taiwan | Beyond Meat retail | company sales | about 10 | NT$ million per month | 2019 | company statement to press | 27 |
| Taiwan | OmniPork dumplings at Bafang Yunji | units sold | over 1 | million dumplings per week | 2020 | about 1,000 outlets; NT$6 each | 28 |
| China | Beyond Meat on Tmall | units sold | under 600 | units per month | 2023 | journalist observation | 29 |
| China | plant-based meat | share saying they have eaten it at least once | 60.1 | percent | published 2022 (fieldwork year not retrieved) | online survey N 1,206, age and gender matched | 30 |
| Southeast Asia (6 markets incl. Vietnam) | plant-based meat | share who regularly consume | 5 | percent | 2024 | online survey (GFI APAC and Good Growth Co.) | 31 |
| China | Beyond Meat | operations | suspended by end of Q2 2025 | n/a | 2025 | company cost cuts reported by trade press | 32 |
| Singapore (global brand) | TiNDLE plant-based chicken | business model | private label only from 2026; US business divested | n/a | 2025 to 2026 | co-founder: "no real underlying consumer demand to shift away from meat" | 33,34 |
| Singapore | Q Protein soy-enhanced beef and chicken (Temasek's Nurasa with a meat importer) | launch | retail and foodservice supply | n/a | September 2025 | no sales data; GFI APAC expects Asia's first large blended rollouts in foodservice in 2026 | 35,36 |
| Indonesia | Green Rebel (plant-based, regional dishes) | funding raised | 10.5 to 12.5 | USD million | 2026 | growth driven by foodservice partners and regional dishes; two reports differ on the amount | 37,38 |
D7.2 Price elasticities
| Study | Country | Product | Own-price elasticity | Cross-price with meat | Data | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhao, Wang, Hu and Zheng 2023 | United States | plant-based meat alternatives in fresh meat section | -0.84 before COVID-19; -1.55 after | PBMA demand wrt meat prices: beef -1.41, pork -0.39 (complements); chicken +2.27, turkey +0.12, fish +0.34 (substitutes) | retail scanner (Nielsen Scantrack, weekly, 40 states) | Jan 2017 to Jul 2020 | 6 |
| GFI and NIQ price and promotion model 2024 | United States | plant-based beef | -1.23 (regular price) | 53% of the elasticity comes from external competitors; conventional chicken and turkey are the top external competitor (a quarter to a third) | store-level retail scanner model (NIQ) | three 104-week periods to Jul 2023 | 7 |
| Liu and Ansink 2024 | Netherlands | plant-based meat substitutes | +1.52 (positive) | complements to beef, poultry and fish | store-level supermarket scanner, QUAIDS with instrumented prices | 2015 to 2018 | 39 |
| Nouve, Zheng, Zhao, Kaiser and Dong 2025 | United States | 26 plant-based and animal meat categories | more elastic for plant-based than for animal meat (values not retrieved) | mixed: plant-based beef patty substitutes for beef patty; plant-based bacon complements bacon | household scanner panel | 2019 to 2021 | 40 |
| Tonsor, Lusk and Schroeder 2022 | United States | plant-based patties vs ground beef | estimated (values not retrieved) | small cross-price elasticities between plant-based patties and ground beef | four consumer experiments (choice) | about 2020 to 2021 | 41 |
| Caputo, Lusk and Blaustein-Rejto 2025 | United States | plant-based meat in food away from home | between premium meats (salmon, ribeye) and affordable meats (burgers, chicken) | mix of complements and substitutes | basket-based choice experiment plus equilibrium displacement model | about 2023 | 42 |
| Lusk, Blaustein-Rejto, Shah and Tonsor 2022 | United States | plant-based meat vs cattle | about -2.3 implied (10% price cut raises plant-based consumption about 23%, our derivation) | 10% plant-based price cut lowers US cattle production about 0.15% | calibrated equilibrium displacement model | 2020s baseline | 43 |
| Dogbe, Wang and Revoredo-Giha 2024 | United Kingdom (Scotland) | non-dairy milk; beans and pulses; peas; nuts | non-dairy milk -1.63; nuts -1.18; beans -1.00; peas -0.83 | near zero (for example peas price +1% changes beef/veal demand +0.03%) | household scanner (Kantar Worldpanel) | 2021 | 44 |
| Jähn, Guhl and Erhard 2024 | United States | plant-based burgers (analogue, semi-analogue, non-analogue) vs meat burger | price cuts raise consideration and choice of plant-based burgers | changing meat burger price had minimal effect on demand | hypothetical restaurant choice experiment | about 2023 | 45 |
| Carlsson, Kataria and Lampi 2021 | Sweden | veggie burger, meat-like burger, lab burger | about one third of meat-preferers would switch at two thirds of meat price or less | not estimated | stated-preference survey | about 2019 to 2020 | 46 |
| Slade 2023 | United States | non-dairy milk vs dairy milk | not reported | 1 extra gallon of non-dairy milk associated with 0.43 to 0.60 fewer gallons of dairy milk | household panel | 2004 to 2018 | 9 |
| Freitas-Groff, Meyer and Woolley 2024 | United States | plant-based milk; plant-based meat | not reported | plant-based milk displaces 0.73 to 0.93 units of dairy milk; plant-based meat effect noisy and unclear, elasticities suggest complementarity for most meats | household grocery panel | 2004 to 2020 | 10 |
D7.3 Price gaps against meat
| Country | Product | Comparator | Ratio or premium | Year | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | plant-based meat | conventional meat | +65% per lb | 2022 | sales-weighted retail average (NIQ) | 7 |
| United States | plant-based meat | conventional meat | +77% per lb | 2023 | sales-weighted retail average (NIQ) | 7 |
| United States | plant-based meat | conventional beef | about 2 times | 2025 | retail average (SPINS) | 1 |
| Germany | plant-based meat | animal meat | +45% per kg (EUR 14.09 vs 9.68) | 2024 | sales-weighted (Circana) | 3 |
| Germany | meat substitutes | conventional meat | at parity | 2023 to 2024 | unweighted shelf sample | 47 |
| Netherlands | plant-based meat | animal meat | +46% per kg (2022) to +35% (2024) | 2022 to 2024 | sales-weighted (Circana) | 4 |
| France | plant-based meat | animal meat | +25% per kg | 2025 | Circana | 15 |
| Six European countries (FR, DE, IT, NL, ES, UK) | meat substitutes | conventional meat | +24% to +115% (except Germany) | 2023 to 2024 | unweighted shelf sample, about 2,600 substitutes | 47 |
| United Kingdom | plant-based milk | dairy milk | about two thirds more per litre | year to Jan 2025 | Circana | 5 |
| Thailand | meat and seafood substitutes (736 THB per kg) | chicken 94, pork 179, beef 348 THB per kg | about 8 times chicken, 4 times pork, 2 times beef | 2024 | Euromonitor average prices | 24 |
| Taiwan | Beyond burger; OmniPork mince | conventional burger meat; fresh pork | about 5 times; about 3 times | 2019 | shelf prices reported by press | 27 |
| China | plant-based burger patties on Tmall | conventional patties | about 3 times | about 2023 | online shelf prices | 29 |
| Singapore (global brand) | TiNDLE plant-based chicken | chicken | about 50% dearer | 2025 | CEO statement to trade press | 34 |
| Southeast Asia (6 markets) | plant-based meat | conventional meat | +35% average | 2024 | survey report, method not stated | 31 |
| Vietnam (context from supply study) | imported plant-based meat analogues (VND 542,000 to 622,000 per 100 g protein) | eggs and chicken breast (VND 34,000 to 45,000 per 100 g protein) | about 12 to 18 times per gram of protein (our derivation) | 2026 | retail audit, 11 stores, per 100 g protein | 48 |
D7.4 Institutional and nudge interventions
| Intervention | Setting | Country | Effect | Outcome | Design | Follow-up | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| double share of vegetarian options from 25% to 50% | university cafeterias | United Kingdom | +7.8 percentage points vegetarian sales (+40.8%) experimental; +14.9 and +14.5 pp (+61.8%, +78.8%) observational | share of meals sold that were vegetarian | field experiment (one cafeteria) plus observational (two) | same-day; checked other mealtimes, no rebound found | 49 |
| raise meat-free options from one in three to two in three | university cafeteria | United Kingdom | -19.9 percentage points share of meat meals (95% CI -25.2 to -14.6) | share of meals with meat | natural experiment | weeks; no change in other cafeterias | 50 |
| vegetarian lunch as the default at registration | academic conferences | Denmark | vegetarian choice 2% to 87%, 6% to 86%, 12.5% to 89% | share choosing vegetarian lunch | randomised controlled field experiments (3) | immediate (registration choice) | 51 |
| plant-based meal as the default on RSVP form | catered campus events | United States | risk ratio 3.52 (95% CI 2.44 to 5.09) of choosing plant-based meal | share choosing plant-based meal | randomised controlled trials (3) | immediate | 52 |
| Veganuary multi-component in-store promotion (visibility, availability, price, placement) | supermarket chain, 154 stores | United Kingdom | plant-based unit sales +57% during (IRR 1.52), +15% after (IRR 1.13); no significant change in meat sales | weekly unit sales | natural experiment with pre and post periods | two months after | 53 |
| placement, taste and social-norm nudges for meat and dairy alternatives | online supermarket | Netherlands | alternatives +10% (IRR 1.10, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.23, not significant); meat -3% (not significant) | items purchased per transaction | randomised controlled trial, pre-registered | per transaction | 54 |
| 10% temporary price reduction on plant-based beef, alone or with feature advert | US grocery retail | United States | +20% units with discount alone; +80% with discount plus feature | incremental unit sales vs base | econometric price and promotion model on store scanner data | short-term promotion weeks | 7 |
| price parity for private-label vegan range (Vemondo) | Lidl Germany, all stores | Germany | vegan sales +30% or more in six months (company claim) | sales value of vegan range | before and after, no control | six months | 55,56 |
| sector protein targets plus price parity pledges by several retailers | Dutch supermarket sector | Netherlands | plant share of protein 42.0% (2023), 42.7% (2024), 42.6% (2025) | plant share of all protein sold | annual retailer self-assessment, validated | three years | 16 |
| prominent advertising of a new plant-based burger (Impossible) | US households | United States | purchase-probability lift for meat-burger buyers about one fifth of that for vegan-burger buyers | probability of buying | ad exposure data merged with household scanner panel | weeks | 57 |
| all meat-reduction interventions with at least one day follow-up (meta-analysis) | mixed (cafeterias, online, schools, households) | mostly United States and Europe | pooled SMD 0.07 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.12); red and processed meat only 0.25; choice architecture 0.21 (3 estimates); 0.2 if weaker designs included | meat and animal product consumption | meta-analysis of randomised trials | at least one day | 58 |
| weekly vegetarian meal mandated in school canteens | all French school canteens | France | effect on total meat intake not measured in retrieved sources | not applicable | national regulation since 2018 | not applicable | 59 |
| modern alternative proteins on restaurant menus | seven restaurants, 1.2 million transactions | United States, Canada, Australia | "essentially no evidence" of reduced meat purchases | meat purchases | transaction-data analysis (Stanford lab, August 2026) | restaurant periods analysed | 11 |
| plant-based school meals once or twice a month, recommended by all 17 education offices ("Green Meals" in Seoul) | public schools | Korea | Seoul plant-based menus in 313 schools carried 26.7 g of protein against 29.9 g for regular menus (standard 13.8 g); menus still include fish, egg and dairy | protein per menu; meat displacement not measured | education-office policy since about 2023; menu evaluation | one month (June 2023) | 60 |
| institutional meat-reduction programme (Sinergia Animal) | schools and institutions | Argentina, Colombia, Indonesia | about 998,000 meals replaced in 2023; about 3.4 meals and 0.5 animals per USD; about 0.13 animals per meal (ACE estimate) | meals replaced; animals spared | charity evaluator estimate | one year assumed persistence | 12 |
| plant-based menu training and commitments (Forward Food, Humane World for Animals) | chefs, nutritionists and institutions in seven countries including Viet Nam | global | 2.3 million meals a year moved to plant-based (2025); 370+ chefs and 570+ nutritionists trained | meals committed | organisation report | not reported | 61 |
| corporate plant-based sourcing and menu commitments (Lever Foundation) | hotel groups and food companies | China and other Asian markets; India and Thailand from July 2026 | 175+ commitments; IHG Greater China 30% and Orange Hotels 70% plant-based menus; 29 million corporate meals shifted (cumulative) | commitments; meals shifted | organisation claim | not reported | 62,63 |
| certification of institutions at least 60% plant-based (Good Food Fund) | canteens and institutions | China | 0.3 to 2.5 people reached per USD; no meals or animals estimated | people reached | charity evaluator estimate | not reported | 64 |
| 50% of main-menu items plant-based, priced 7.8% below meatballs | IKEA restaurants | Thailand | menu share and price parity reached (May 2025) | menu share | report by an investor-engagement group | not reported | 65 |
| plant and fermented protein from local crops proposed for PM-POSHAN and ICDS feeding schemes | school and child feeding | India | at roundtable stage; budgets under INR 10 per student per day | not applicable | policy roundtable (August 2026) | not applicable | 66 |
| free nutritious school meals programme | public schools | Indonesia | nutritionists urge animal protein first | not applicable | national programme since January 2025 | not applicable | 67 |
What the programme benchmarks mean for route R4 (our calculation) . Asian public-meal and corporate-menu precedents exist, but none measures meat displaced, and the only cost benchmark is ACE's estimate for Sinergia Animal. Two comparisons follow for Demand sizing:
- Scale. The benchmark path's canteen share implies 36.6 million canteen meal-equivalents a year in Vietnam by 2035. That is about 37 times Sinergia Animal's 2023 total across three countries and about 16 times the meals Humane World secured worldwide in 2025, so it can only come from caterers' own commercial use of plant or novel protein, not from diet-change campaigns.
- Animals per meal. At 20 g of protein per dish and 0.8 net displacement, a Vietnamese canteen meal shifted spares about 0.015 animals at the meat mix on caterers' published menus (0.010 to 0.029 across five caterers) and about 0.020 at the national mix, against about 0.13 in the Sinergia estimate. Only replacing a chicken dish (about 0.055) comes near it, and chicken leads 13% of Vietnamese canteen protein dishes 68,69,70. The Korean school pattern, one or two plant-based days a month, is the nearest calendar analogue to canteen chay days, and Seoul's evidence that such menus carry less protein bears on any school plant dish (Channels).
D7.5 Forecast track record
| Forecaster | Made | Target year | Metric | Forecast | Actual or latest comparable | Gap | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.T. Kearney | 2019 | 2025 | novel vegan meat replacements share of global meat market | 10% of a USD 1,200 billion market (about USD 120 billion) | USD 6.6 billion global retail plant-based meat and seafood sales (about 0.55% of Kearney's own 2025 market size) | actual about 5.5% of forecast; share overstated about 18 times | 71,18 |
| A.T. Kearney | 2019 | 2030 | vegan replacements plus cultured meat share of global meat market | 18% vegan plus 10% cultured of USD 1,400 billion | cultivated meat sold in a handful of restaurants and one butchery; no sales volumes published | off track; cultivated investment fell to USD 73.9 million in 2025 | 71,74,20 |
| A.T. Kearney | 2019 | next several years from 2018 | annual growth of plant-based meat alternatives | 20 to 30% per year from USD 4.6 billion (2018) | about 5% per year to USD 6.6 billion in 2025 (our derivation across two data providers) | growth about a quarter of forecast | 71,18 |
| Barclays | 2019 | 2029 | alternative meat market value | USD 140 billion, about 10% of a USD 1.4 trillion meat market | USD 6.6 billion retail plant-based meat and seafood | would need about 115% growth per year from 2025 to 2029 | 72,18 |
| Bloomberg Intelligence | 2021 | 2030 | plant-based foods market value and share of protein market | USD 162 billion, 7.7% of global protein market, from USD 29.4 billion in 2020 | USD 28.9 billion (Euromonitor scope via GFI) | flat vs BI's own 2020 base; would need about 41% growth per year 2025 to 2030 | 73,19 |
| Bloomberg Intelligence | 2021 | 2030 | alternative meat market value | USD 74 billion (aggressive case USD 118 billion) | USD 6.6 billion retail plant-based meat and seafood | would need about 62% growth per year 2025 to 2030 | 73,18 |
| BCG and Blue Horizon | 2021 | 2023 | plant-based price parity with animal protein | parity by 2023 'if not sooner' | US plant-based meat 77% above conventional meat per lb (2023) and about 2 times beef (2025); Germany +45% per kg (2024); Netherlands +35% (2024); Thailand 8 times chicken (2024) | not met at category-average level; cheapest private labels at parity in Germany and the Netherlands | 75,7,1,3,4,24 |
| BCG and Blue Horizon | 2021 | 2035 | alternative protein volume and share of protein market | 97 Mt and 11% (base), 16% or 22% (upside), 10% (downside), from 13 Mt and 2% in 2020 | global plant-based meat and seafood retail volume +3% in 2025; US units -21% 2023 to 2025; no global tonnage retrieved | implied growth 14.3% per year; observed volume growth in low single digits globally and negative in the US | 75,19,1 |
| BCG and Blue Horizon | 2021 | 2025 | microorganism (fermentation) protein price parity | parity by 2025 | no evidence of parity found; fermentation investment fell to USD 357 million in 2025 amid closures | not met on available evidence | 75,76 |
| Good Food Institute | 2022 | not dated | US plant-based meat share of total meat | could reach plant-based milk's 16% dollar share, worth USD 16 billion | 0.7% of total meat dollar sales, USD 1.0 billion; plant-based milk itself fell to 13% | share halved instead of rising | 2,1 |
| Krungthai COMPASS (via USDA FAS) | 2020 to 2021 | 2024 | Thai plant-based food market value | USD 1.5 billion from USD 935 million in 2019 (10 to 35% growth per year) | Euromonitor dairy plus meat alternatives USD 842.7 million (2019) and 824.1 million (2020); no same-scope 2024 value retrieved | early years below the growth path; 2024 comparison open | 23 |
How Part III labels scenarios. Following this record, any pathway that assumes a share of meat replaced is labelled exploratory; a benchmark-anchored scenario is built from observed values; anything above those anchors is a stretch that needs conditions not yet seen anywhere (Demand sizing).
Related: Consumers, Demand sizing, D8. Demand model.
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- GLB-07 Green Queen Media. Global plant-based food sales grew by 3% in 2025: GFI report. 2026
- GLB-49 GFI APAC. Korea overtakes Singapore as APAC's cultivated meat startup epicentre. 2026
- GLB-47 Euromonitor International. Plant-based in Asia Pacific: what's next?. 2023-11-30
- GLB-52 USDA FAS Bangkok (S. Sirikeratikul). Plant-Based Food and Beverage Market in Thailand. 2021-09-01
- GLB-53 Madre Brava. A succulent alternative protein opportunity for Thai meat producers. 2025-10-08
- GLB-55 Kenko Sangyo Shimbun (citing Japan Soymilk Association). 2024年豆乳類の生産量は410,712kL 無調整豆乳は過去最高に. 2025-02
- GLB-57 Food and Fertilizer Technology Center (authors from ATRI and National Taiwan University). Marketing Strategy of Plant-based Meat Alternatives in Taiwan. 2023-04-21
- GLB-58 CommonWealth Magazine (Taiwan). Unwrapping the Secret Behind the Multi-Million Dollar Faux Meat Industry. 2019-12-25
- GLB-59 Green Queen Media. Taiwan's Bafang Yunji Is Selling 1 Million Omnipork Dumplings A Week. 2020-02-07
- GLB-50 Sixth Tone. China's Plant-Based Meat Industry Falters After Initial Hype. 2023-06-06
- GLB-51 Chung J.Y. et al.. Plant-based meats in China: a cross-sectional study of attitudes and behaviours. 2022
- GLB-48 GFI APAC; The Good Growth Co.. New data reveals surprising market opportunities for plant-based meat in Southeast Asia. 2024
- AIS-45 AgFunderNews. Beyond Meat to lay off 6% of its workforce and suspend operations in China. 2025-02-26
- AIS-28 TiNDLE Foods via PR Newswire. TiNDLE Foods Pivots Business Model to Focus on Private Label Products. 2025-11-20
- AIS-29 AgFunderNews. From record Series A to market reset: where TiNDLE Foods and plant-based meat go next. 2025-07-16
- AIS-10 GFI APAC. Temasek-backed firm upgrades Singapore's conventional meat with plant proteins. 2025-09
- AFN-11 GFI APAC. GFI APAC's 2025 Report Card + 6 Things to Watch in 2026. 2026-01
- AIS-30 Protein Production Technology International (PPTI). Green Rebel Foods secured US$12.5 million. 2026-02-06
- AIS-31 DealStreetAsia. Indonesia's Green Rebel Foods bags $10.5m from existing backers. 2026-01-21
- GLB-21 Liu Z.; Ansink E. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam). Price elasticities of meat, fish and plant-based meat substitutes: Evidence from store-level Dutch supermarket scanner data. 2024
- GLB-20 Nouve Y. et al.. Disaggregated Substitution Patterns Between Plant-Based and Animal Meats. 2025
- GLB-24 Tonsor G.T. et al.. Market potential of new plant-based protein alternatives: Insights from four US consumer experiments. 2022
- GLB-26 Caputo V. et al.. Plant-Based versus Conventional Meat in Food Away From Home Settings. 2025
- GLB-27 Lusk J.L. et al.. Impact of plant-based meat alternatives on cattle inventories and greenhouse gas emissions. 2022
- GLB-23 Dogbe W. et al.. Nutritional implications of substituting plant-based proteins for meat: evidence from home scan data. 2024
- GLB-25 Jähn S. et al.. Substitution patterns and price response for plant-based meat alternatives. 2024
- GLB-31 Carlsson F. et al. (University of Gothenburg). How much does it take? Willingness to switch to meat substitutes. 2021
- GLB-15 Siegrist A. et al. (ETH Zurich). Comparing the nutritional value and prices of meat and milk substitutes with their animal-based benchmarks across six European countries. 2024
- FORM-01 AltProtein Vietnam. AltProtein Vietnam retail field audit, Nha Trang 6 Sep 2026 and Ho Chi Minh City 16 and 20 Sep 2026, 186 SKUs, 11 stores. 6 to 20 Sep 2026
- GLB-35 Garnett E.E. et al. (University of Cambridge). Impact of increasing vegetarian availability on meal selection and sales in cafeterias. 2019
- GLB-36 Pechey R. et al. (University of Oxford). Impact of increasing the relative availability of meat-free options on food selection. 2022
- GLB-37 Hansen P.G. et al.. Nudging healthy and sustainable food choices: three randomized controlled field experiments using a vegetarian lunch-default. 2021
- GLB-38 Boronowsky R.D. et al.. Plant-based default nudges effectively increase the sustainability of catered meals on college campuses. 2022
- GLB-33 Trewern J. et al. (University of Surrey; WWF-UK). Does promoting plant-based products in Veganuary lead to increased sales, and a reduction in meat sales?. 2022
- GLB-34 van der Vliet N. et al.. Nudging plant-based alternatives to meat and dairy in a real-life online supermarket. 2024
- GLB-13 Rethink Priorities. Protein Transition Strategy: Lidl Germany's Quantifiable Approach to Sustainable Retail. 2024
- GLB-14 Schwarz Group (Lidl parent). Price parity and protein strategy at the companies of Schwarz Group. 2025-09-11
- GLB-41 Wang L. et al.. Does the advertising of plant-based burgers attract meat consumers?. 2024
- GLB-39 Green S.A. et al.. Meaningfully reducing consumption of meat and animal products is an unsolved problem: A meta-analysis. 2025
- GLB-64 Dahmani J. et al.. Nutritional quality and greenhouse gas emissions of vegetarian and non-vegetarian primary school meals. 2022
- AFN-42 Kim and Kim. Nutritional quality evaluation of plant-based elementary school meals in Seoul. 2025
- AFN-23 Humane World for Animals. Giving thanks for progress for farmed animals all over the world. 2025-11-26
- AFN-38 Green Queen. Sustainability NGO Gets 175+ Food Companies in Asia to Commit to Responsible Sourcing. 2025-02-14
- AFN-39 Green Queen. Exclusive: Lever Foundation Expands Plant-Based Policy Work to India & Thailand. 2026-07-03
- AFN-27 Animal Charity Evaluators. Good Food Fund review. 2025
- AFN-18 Asia Research and Engagement. The Asia Protein Buyers 100 (APB 100) Report 2026. 2026-02-19
- AFN-14 vegconomist. Malnutrition Data Frames India Roundtable on Building Alt-Protein Into State Feeding Schemes. 2026-08-03
- AFN-43 Tempo. Spesialis Gizi Ingatkan Makan Bergizi Gratis Utamakan Protein Hewani. 2025-01
- UPL-27 Hoang Kim industrial catering (Binh Duong). Thực đơn: Suất ăn 20.000, 23.000, 25.000. 2024-02-25
- UPL-32 Haseca. Thực đơn suất ăn công nghiệp theo tuần, tháng. 2025-12-11
- FUF-03 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Production: Crops and livestock products (bulk download, Asia). 2025-12-23
- GLB-45 A.T. Kearney. How Will Cultured Meat and Meat Alternatives Disrupt the Agricultural and Food Industry?. 2019
- GLB-44 CNBC (reporting Barclays). Alternative meat to become $140 billion industry in a decade, Barclays predicts. 2019-05-23
- GLB-43 Bloomberg Intelligence. Plant-based Foods Market to Hit $162 Billion in Next Decade. 2021-08-11
- GLB-60 Good Food Institute. State of the Industry Report: Cultivated meat and seafood. 2024
- GLB-42 Boston Consulting Group; Blue Horizon Corporation. Food for Thought: The Protein Transformation. 2021-03
- GLB-63 Good Food Institute. Fermentation State of the Industry report. 2026-05-05