S12. Cost inputs and techno-economic benchmarks

This appendix holds the numbers behind Economics. Part one lists Vietnamese input costs in 2026: electricity, water, heat, labour, land, taxes and logistics. Part two gives commodity prices, the protein ingredients Vietnam imports and the retail prices of the proteins an alternative would replace. Part three sets out published techno-economic analyses (TEAs) that we checked against the papers, the spread in capital cost per m3, and what drives cost. Part four gives our tropical cooling estimate and two indicative Vietnamese cost stacks, with the basis of every line. The feed prices a product must beat are in Feed and aquafeed market; raw-material prices are in Feedstock data sheets.

#How to read this appendix

• Currency. We convert at 26,000 VND per USD. Vietcombank quoted 25,800 (buy) and 26,210 (sell) on 23 September 2026 ¹ VN-directHigh. VND prices exclude VAT unless stated.
• Three kinds of number. "Measured" numbers come from a tariff, law, price report or paper. "Our calculation" numbers are arithmetic on measured inputs, and show the inputs. "Assumption" numbers are engineering judgements with no Vietnamese source. The cost stacks label every line.
• TEA checks. For each benchmark we say whether we read the full text, key excerpts or only the abstract. Only full-text or excerpt-checked values carry High confidence.
• Indicative, not feasibility. The cost stacks are order-of-magnitude estimates to show which lines matter. They are not a feasibility study.

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#Part one. Vietnamese input costs

#S12.1 Electricity

Manufacturing tariff (VND/kWh, excluding VAT; MOIT Decision 1279/QD-BCT of 9 May 2025, effective 10 May 2025) ^2,3 VN-directHigh:

• Time windows. MOIT Decision 963 (2026), effective 22 April 2026, moved the peak to the evening: peak 17:30 to 22:30 Monday to Saturday (30 hours a week), off-peak 00:00 to 06:00 every day (42 hours), normal all other hours (96 hours) ⁴ VN-directMedium. We did not read the decision text directly.
• Blended price for a plant that runs 24 hours a day = (30 x peak + 42 x off-peak + 96 x normal) / 168 hours. Example at 22 kV: (30 x 3,398 + 42 x 1,190 + 96 x 1,833) / 168 = 327,888 / 168 = 1,952 VND/kWh, about USD 0.075 (our calculation). Mid-size plants in industrial parks commonly connect at 22 kV, so we use 1,952 VND/kWh as the base case for a continuous fermentation plant. It excludes VAT and any future capacity charge.
• Business tariff. If a pilot facility were classed as business rather than manufacturing, the under-6 kV tariff is 1,918 (off-peak), 3,152 (normal) and 5,422 (peak) VND/kWh ⁴ VN-directMedium.
• Average retail price. 2,204.0655 VND/kWh after a 4.8% rise on 10 May 2025. The press still quoted it in July 2026, so we found no increase between May 2025 and July 2026 ^2,5 VN-directHigh.
• More frequent adjustments. Decree 278/2026/ND-CP (reported effective about 9 July 2026) lets EVN move the average price by 2% to under 5% after a MOIT review; larger changes need higher approval ⁵ VN-directMedium. We did not read the decree text.
• Two-part tariff. A pilot of a capacity-plus-energy tariff started on 1 January 2026 for customers using 200,000 kWh or more a month at 22 kV or above. For all of 2026 they receive a reference ("shadow") bill beside the real one (Electricity Law 2024 Art 50; Decree 146/2025/ND-CP) ⁶ VN-directMedium. No VND/kW rates were published. A capacity charge from 2027 could raise costs for plants with high peak demand.
• Regional comparison. The GFI APAC and Hawkwood Biotech site-selection study used USD 0.08/kWh for Vietnam and scored Vietnam 97 of 100 on utilities; Indonesia (USD 0.07/kWh) scored 99 ⁷ VN-directMedium.

Direct power purchase (DPPA). Decree 57/2025/ND-CP set two models: a private wire, and a synthetic DPPA over the national grid. Buyers qualify at an average of 200,000 kWh a month or more (Circular 16/2025/TT-BCT, as summarised by a consultancy) ⁸ VN-directMedium. A 10,000 t/yr fermentation plant using 1.5 to 3 kWh per kg would need about 1.25 to 2.5 GWh a month (our calculation), far above the threshold. Under the synthetic model the buyer pays the spot price, plus an EVN DPPA service charge of about 420 VND/kWh (2025 reference), plus the contract-for-difference settlement, plus retail top-up power ⁸ VN-directLow. The consultancy's worked example gives about 1,895 VND/kWh (spot about 1,100, service charge about 420, settlement about 180, and 10% top-up at retail), about 11% below its EVN comparison of about 2,128 VND/kWh ⁸ VN-directLow. Against our 24/7 baseline of 1,952 VND/kWh, the saving is only about 3% (our calculation, 1 - 1,895 / 1,952). The consultancy probably assumed more peak-hour use. Decree 243/2026/ND-CP (26 June 2026) amended Decree 57: it removed price caps on private-wire DPPA and widened participation to retailers, data centres and EV-charging operators ⁹ VN-directMedium. The DPPA saving is modelled, single-source and could vanish under a capacity charge.

Grid emission factor. The latest official figure is 0.6592 tCO2/MWh for 2023, announced on 3 December 2024 (Official Letter 1726/BDKH-PTCBT) ¹⁰ VN-directHigh. As of January 2026 there was no official 2024 or 2025 figure; researchers estimate 0.6811 (2024) and 0.6235 (2025) ¹¹ VN-directMedium. At the official factor, a process that uses 2 kWh of grid power per kg of product emits about 1.3 kg of CO2 per kg from power alone (our calculation, 2 x 0.6592). For comparison, one TEA puts the carbon intensity of hydrogen-based SCP at 0.73 kg CO2e per kg of protein, against 2.72 for fishmeal and 0.85 for soybean meal (abstract only) ¹² generalMedium. A "low-carbon protein" claim for a power-hungry process in Vietnam needs a DPPA or on-site solar. The revised national power plan targets 28 to 36% non-hydro renewable generation by 2030 ¹³ VN-directHigh.

#S12.2 Water and wastewater

• Check: 12,100 x 1.05 + 3,630 x 1.08 = 12,705 + 3,920 = 16,625 VND/m3 (our calculation).
• Industrial parks set the wastewater charge as F = f x V x K, where K is a pollution coefficient based on COD. Spent fermentation broth may therefore pay a multiple of the base fee, or need treatment on site first.
• Water is a minor cost in both cost stacks below.

#S12.3 Heat and fuel

• LPG. A 45 kg industrial cylinder cost 2,212,000 VND in Ho Chi Minh City and 2,115,072 VND in Hanoi in September 2026, about 49,000 VND/kg (USD 1.89) in Ho Chi Minh City including VAT. The Saudi contract price was USD 642.5/t, up from USD 630 in August ¹⁹ VN-directMedium. Bulk contracts are cheaper.
• Biomass. Rice husk pellets list at 2,190 VND/kg (unit inferred) with 3,200 to 3,900 kcal/kg; wood pellets 3,090 VND/kg; wood shavings 2,790 VND/kg (supplier list, December 2025) ²⁰ VN-directLow. Wood pellets exported at USD 120 to 145/t FOB in Q1 2025 ²¹ VN-directLow. Ajinomoto's Bien Hoa MSG plant burns about 100,000 t of rice husk a year ²² VN-directMedium.
• Steam, fuel only (our calculation). At 640 kcal per kg of steam, 3,200 to 3,900 kcal per kg of husk pellets and 75 to 85% boiler efficiency, one kg of steam needs 0.19 to 0.27 kg of pellets, or 420 to 585 VND of fuel ²⁰. A supplier claims 830 to 870 VND per kg of steam all-in, using wood pellets at 85 to 87% efficiency ²¹ VN-directLow. The gap is operation, maintenance, capital and labour. We found no published steam tariffs from industrial parks.
• Natural gas and CNG. Not published. Gas South prices industrial CNG per customer, indexed to fuel oil or LPG ²³ VN-directLow.

#S12.4 Labour

• Regions. Region I covers the urban wards of Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi and the Bien Hoa area of Dong Nai.
• Workforce assumption used in the cost stacks. A skilled plant workforce averaging 12 to 20 million VND/month gross, with 13 months of pay and 23.5% on-costs, costs USD 7,400 to 12,350 per full-time employee (FTE) a year (our calculation, 12 to 20 million x 13 x 1.235 / 26,000). This is an assumption, not a survey figure.

#S12.5 Land and buildings

Q2 2026, Cushman & Wakefield ^26,27 VN-directMedium:

• Industrial land is cheaper in the north; ready-built factory rents are about the same in both regions. Ready-built factory occupancy was 89.7 to 94.3% in the south and about 86% in the north ^26,27 VN-directMedium.
• Construction cost. The Ministry of Construction's Decision 409/QD-BXD (11 April 2025, Q4 2024 price basis, 10% VAT included) contains official investment rates, but its industrial chapter was not readable ²⁸ VN-directLow. The only figure we have is the GFI APAC and Hawkwood input of USD 1,672/m2 for Vietnam (construction score 93), against USD 1,487/m2 for Indonesia (score 100) ⁷ VN-directMedium.

#S12.6 Taxes and duties

• VAT on feed. Under the Law on VAT 48/2024/QH15 (Art 5(3), in force 1 July 2025), animal feed and aquafeed are "not subject to VAT" ²⁹ VN-directHigh. "Not subject" is not the same as zero-rated: a plant making a feed protein cannot reclaim the VAT it pays on equipment, power and inputs. Feed millers can no longer deduct the 5% VAT they paid on inputs ³⁰ VN-directMedium. By our estimate, at 10% VAT on roughly half to all of costs, this adds about 5 to 10% to a feed-protein plant's taxed input costs. A food-ingredient plant, taxed at 8 or 10%, can reclaim input VAT. Whether a new feed ingredient such as SCP automatically counts as "animal feed" for VAT is an open question.
• Other VAT rates. The standard rate is 10%. The 5% rate covers clean water, fertiliser and unprocessed farm products at the commercial stage (Art 9(2)) ²⁹ VN-directHigh. A temporary cut from 10% to 8% for many goods has applied since 1 July 2025 (Resolution 204/2025/QH15; Decree 174/2025/ND-CP), and it ends on 31 December 2026 ^31,32 VN-directHigh. Goods subject to excise are excluded from the cut; from 1 January 2026 that includes sugary drinks above 5 g of sugar per 100 ml (MOF Letter 17380/BTC-CST) ³³ VN-directHigh. Fresh meat, fish and eggs are not subject to VAT at the producer and import stage and pay 5% at the trading stage; processed foods, plant-based or not, including tofu, chay foods, plant-based meat, processed meat and protein ingredients, pay 10% (8% to the end of 2026) ^29,32 VN-directHigh. So a processed protein product carries a 3 to 5 point VAT handicap against fresh meat at the trading stage, and we found no VAT, excise or income-tax line that favours plant-based or high-protein foods (our reading). Import VAT on food ingredients is creditable for a VAT-registered buyer, so it does not change the comparison between domestic and imported ingredients.
• Corporate income tax (CIT). Law 67/2025/QH15 sets a standard rate of 20% with preferential rates for encouraged sectors and areas. Decree 320/2025/ND-CP (15 December 2025) adds two tests that matter for alternative protein. First, the exemption for processed farm and aquatic products needs agricultural or aquatic raw materials to be at least 30% of production cost; a cassava-based fermentation plant probably passes, and a plant running on imported refined sugar may not (our interpretation). Second, income from products made with a technology applied for the first time in Vietnam is exempt for 3 years, once an authority confirms the technology is new ³⁴ VN-directHigh. The chapter on high-technology projects (10% for 15 years; 4 years' exemption plus 9 years at 50%) did not render. The GFI APAC and Hawkwood study cites Vietnamese incentives of cash support up to 10% of new fixed assets, 10% CIT for 15 years, and a 4-year tax holiday plus 9 years at 50% ⁷ VN-directMedium.
• Import duty on machinery. Imported fixed-asset goods of projects in incentivised sectors or areas are exempt (Decree 134/2016/ND-CP Art 14, as amended by Decree 18/2021/ND-CP). We did not read the texts; see S9. Regulation.
• Import duty on protein inputs (MFN, and preferential rates for China, ASEAN and Korea, 2025 to 2027) ^{35,36,37,38,39} VN-directMedium:

Feed protein enters duty-free, so domestic novel feed proteins get no tariff shelter. Food protein ingredients carry small MFN duties, but only on origins without a trade agreement, chiefly the United States. Chinese, ASEAN and Korean product pays 0% with a certificate of origin, so a domestic textured-protein, gluten or single-cell-protein maker has no tariff edge over Chinese product ^38,39 VN-directMedium. A maker buying full-fat soy flour from the United States would pay 8% while Chinese textured protein enters free. The MFN column of MOIT's trade repository is out of date for lines amended in 2025, so MFN rates were taken only for lines no amending decree touched ³⁸ VN-directMedium. Whether importers actually claim the preference is not known.

#S12.7 Logistics

Not established. The only data point: in March and April 2026, as oil prices rose with the Middle East conflict, the press reported logistics costs up 20 to 30% for international and 15 to 20% for domestic transport ⁴⁰ VN-directLow. Trucking cost per tonne-km, container rates to Singapore or Shanghai and cold-chain rates are gaps.

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#Part two. Commodity and retail prices

#S12.8 Commodity prices

• Corn origins. Vietnam imported 6.8 Mt of corn in H1 2026 (up 53% year on year) worth USD 1.71 bn; in January to May, Brazil supplied 44%, Argentina 31% and India 0.5 Mt, a new source, at unit values of USD 247 (Brazil), 252 (Argentina) and 252/t (India) ⁴⁹ VN-directMedium.
• Urea. A second press series gave world urea at USD 674/t in March 2026 ⁴⁰; the direction (a sharp spring rise) agrees with the World Bank series, which fell back to USD 390/t by August ⁴².
• Cassava, rice by-products and sugar. Vietnamese prices are in Feedstock data sheets: fresh cassava roots 3,000 to 3,550 VND/kg (April 2026), native starch 12,500 to 13,200 VND/kg and USD 520 to 540/t FOB, domestic refined sugar about 16,505 VND/kg (June 2026), rice bran 7,300 to 7,650 VND/kg (September 2026) ^51,52,53,54 VN-directMedium.
• Gaps. Vietnamese domestic fishmeal prices by grade (55, 60, 65% CP), domestic soybean meal in VND/kg, DDGS, meat and bone meal, poultry by-product meal, fish oil, glucose syrup, bulk molasses and ammonium sulphate.

#S12.9 Protein ingredients Vietnam imports

2023, UN Comtrade via WITS ^56,57,58 VN-directLow:

Every partner shows exactly the same unit value, which suggests the database estimated the quantities. Treat values as reliable and unit values as weak. HS 2106.10 also includes nutrition premixes, so it is not a clean TVP price. There is no separate code for pea protein. We found no global benchmark prices for soy protein isolate, soy protein concentrate, TVP or pea protein.

#S12.10 Retail prices of the proteins an alternative would replace, per 100 g of protein

• Meat and egg prices are Bach Hoa Xanh online, Ho Chi Minh City, 23 September 2026, many at small promotional discounts. Tofu and analogues are from our field audit in Ho Chi Minh City on 16 and 20 September 2026. Meat protein contents are typical food-composition values, not re-checked against the Vietnamese Food Composition Table. Retail pangasius was not found.
• Retail audit medians (VND per 100 g of protein, September 2026): tofu 66,265 (5 SKUs; range 39,171 to 121,053); dried TVP and soy chunks 64,584 (4 SKUs; range 48,976 to 85,053); frozen meat and seafood analogues 278,667 (9 SKUs); protein powders 359,537 (4 SKUs); plant milks 456,250 (8 SKUs) ⁶³ VN-directMedium. See S2. Retail formulation audit.
• Reading. Chicken and eggs set the retail floor at about 34,000 to 46,600 VND per 100 g of protein. Tofu sits at a similar level. Dried soy analogues are already priced near chicken on a protein basis. Printed tofu protein varies two-fold between labels, so label-based comparisons are fragile.

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#Part three. Techno-economic benchmarks

#S12.11 Verified TEA benchmarks

Notes on the mycoprotein TEA ⁶⁴ generalHigh. The model runs 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, assumes 5% financing over 20 years and fixed costs of 3% of annualised capex, and excludes land, working capital and start-up. The authors compare USD 29.56 per kg of protein with about USD 29.95 for choice beef and about USD 9.64 for chicken, and conclude that mycoprotein can match beef on protein cost but "will not be an economic alternative for inexpensive products such as chicken". Buying food-grade biotin and zinc sulphate instead of lab grade cut cost by 22%.

#S12.12 Capital cost per m3 and per annual tonne

Capex per m3 of reactor differs about 7-fold between the two verified microbial studies (our calculation, 350,000 / 51,000) generalHigh. The spread comes from design choices (large, low-cost airlift reactors versus many small reactors), hygiene grade (feed versus food) and the estimating method. We do not average them. A Vietnamese plan should build its own equipment-level estimate rather than borrow one figure.

#S12.13 Where the cost is: why cheap labour and power matter less than capital

• The GFI APAC and Hawkwood representative models. In the study's own plant models, labour is 7% of production cost for submerged biomass (80,000 t/yr) and 17% for precision fermentation (10,000 t/yr); utilities are 4 to 5%; depreciation (capital) is 37 to 56% ⁷ generalHigh. Feedstock is 10% (biomass) and 18% (precision fermentation) in those models, but the same report's text cites 35 to 65% (biomass) and 30 to 45% (precision fermentation) across other TEAs ⁷. The models were run for a US Midwest plant on corn glucose, not for any Asian site.
• Vietnam's scores in that study (0 to 100, 100 = best): labour 100, utilities 97, construction cost 93, business environment 30, sugar capability 26, talent 26, regulatory readiness 0. Indonesia scores the same or better on every cost factor ⁷ VN-directHigh.
• Our own stack agrees. In the fungal feed-protein stack below, capital charge plus maintenance is 54% of cost at the low end and 67% at the high end (our calculation). In the off-gas SCP TEA, facility-dependent costs are 58% and utilities 18% ⁶⁵ generalHigh.
• Reading. Vietnam's cost advantage acts on a small share of cost. Capital, feedstock and the price of the protein being replaced decide the case.

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#Part four. Vietnamese estimates

#S12.14 Tropical cooling (indicative estimate)

We found no published analysis of fermentation cooling in hot, humid climates, and no study that quantifies the cooling cost saved by thermotolerant strains in a tropical plant ⁸⁰ generalMedium. So we built an indicative estimate from general engineering rules. Label: VN-directLow for the result.

• Size of the penalty. USD 70 to 180/t is roughly 2 to 4% of the indicative cost of fungal feed protein in most cases, and 1 to 8% at the extremes (our calculation, against USD 2,227 to 6,612/t). The extra cooling electricity (0.7 to 1.35 kWh/kg) is about half to 1.7 times the plant's other electricity use (0.8 to 1.5 kWh/kg), but electricity is a small share of total cost.
• Avoiding it. Strains that grow at 40 to 45 C can use tower water. Kluyveromyces marxianus SS106, isolated from Thai cassava pulp, reached 39 to 46 g/L of cell mass at 40 C on raw cassava starch ⁸⁴ VN-adjacentHigh. A model of a 600 m3 bubble column on ethanol found that a 30 C broth needs chilled water while a 45 C broth can use cooling water; the same model could make up to 58 kt/yr of SCP ⁸¹ generalMedium. Hybrid pre-cooling with tower water also removes much of the penalty.

#S12.15 Cost stack A: fungal biomass protein for feed

Submerged aerobic fermentation on sugar, dried, 45 to 55% CP; 10,000 t/yr; USD per tonne of product; 2026 prices at 26,000 VND/USD; excluding VAT, sales, distribution and profit. Indicative, not a feasibility study. Label for the result: VN-directLow.

Comparison with fishmeal (updated). Fishmeal protein cost about USD 2,625 per tonne at the 2025 average price and USD 3,846 in August 2026 ⁴² generalHigh. The low end of the stack (USD 4,050 per tonne of protein) is therefore about 54% above fishmeal at the 2025 average and about 5% above it at the August 2026 price (our calculation, 4,050 / 2,625 and 4,050 / 3,846). Soybean-meal protein (about USD 880 per tonne) is 4.6 to 5.1 times cheaper than the low end (Feed and aquafeed market).

Sensitivities (our calculation).

• Near-free carbon. Removing the USD 600 carbon line from the low case gives USD 1,627 per tonne of product, about USD 2,960 per tonne of protein at 55% CP: below fishmeal protein at the August 2026 price (USD 3,846), but still about 13% above the 2025 average (USD 2,625).
• Capital. The low case already assumes capex of USD 8,000 per annual tonne, half of the lowest verified TEA. At the verified USD 16,000 to 22,800 per annual tonne, the capital charge alone would be USD 1,920 to 4,100 per tonne of product at 12 to 18% (our calculation).
• Capital dominates. Capital charge plus maintenance is 54% of the low case ((960 + 240) / 2,227) and 67% of the high case ((3,600 + 800) / 6,612) (our calculation).
• Published feed TEAs agree. Minimum selling prices of USD 2,070 to 4,150 per tonne of SCP ^65,12 also sit at or above fishmeal on a protein basis.

Not included, and pushing the high case up. Because feed is not subject to VAT, input VAT on capex and taxed inputs is not reclaimable, adding about 5 to 10% on those inputs (S12.6). The feed-ingredient listing process also takes time (6 to 18 months by our estimate; Feed and aquafeed market).

#S12.16 Cost stack B: textured soy protein (TVP)

Dry TVP from food-grade, low-temperature defatted soy flour by low-moisture extrusion on a Chinese-equipped line; two line sizes (0.5 and 1 t/h) at 50, 70 and 90% utilisation of 8,000 hours a year; USD per tonne of product; 2026 prices; including delivery to the buyer, a capital charge and working-capital interest; excluding VAT, sales and profit. Protein taken as 52%. Indicative. Rebuilt from the textured-protein investor card (W7-L5); the full rows are in t1_cost_per_kg.csv. Label for the result: VN-directLow.

Inputs.

Results.

Our calculation ^{85,86,2,24,25,26} VN-directLow. The low case pairs all low inputs and the high case all high inputs. With a European-grade line (unverified; USD 2.0 to 5.6 M installed on the earlier equipment assumption of USD 1.5 to 4.0 M), the capital charge would be USD 33 to 181 per t.

Reading.

• Flour is the cost. Raw material is 63 to 85% of full cost. The two cases differ by USD 344 per t on flour alone; all other costs together run USD 115 to 304 per t at 1 t/h and 90%, and up to USD 583 at 0.5 t/h and 50%. Scale and utilisation matter only in the high-cost case (our calculation).
• Equipment is not the barrier. With Chinese equipment the capital charge is USD 5 to 91 per t, 1 to 6% of full cost. Working capital, USD 0.6 to 3.5 M, is the larger funding need VN-directLow.
• The competitor lands inside the domestic range. In 2025 China shipped HS 2106.10 to Vietnam at USD 1.24 per kg FOB (10,201 t), its lowest price to any of eight Asian and US partners (world average USD 1.95) ^85,88 VN-directMedium. Landed at the 0% ACFTA or RCEP duty it actually pays, it costs about USD 1.29 to 1.38 per kg (USD 1.35 to 1.44 if the 5% MFN duty applied) ^85,89,38 VN-directMedium. India shipped 2,372 t at USD 0.98 per kg, which lands at about USD 1.08 to 1.15 ⁸⁹ VN-directMedium. The domestic full cost is USD 0.76 to 1.57 per kg, so the delivered flour price decides the margin (our calculation; t1_landed_competitor.csv).
• Margin and breakeven. At Chinese parity with 0% duty, the low case earns 33 to 41% and pays back in about a year; the high case runs from a 22% loss to breakeven. To earn 15% on a 1 t/h line at 70% utilisation, delivered flour must cost less than about USD 700 to 940 per t (our calculation; t1_margin_payback.csv) VN-directLow. Chinese lines are on sale in Ho Chi Minh City, yet no one has built one, which suggests the low flour price is not available for food-grade, low-temperature, often non-GMO flour (our inference). A written quote for delivered flour is the decisive number.
• No input advantage. Vietnam crushes about 2.6 Mt of soybeans a year for feed meal and has no food-grade defatted flake stream ⁹⁰ VN-directMedium; it grows only about 1.6% of its soybean supply (42 kt against 2.61 Mt imported in 2025; our calculation from ^91,92). A Vietnamese line buys most of its cost from the countries whose product it replaces, and its net shelter from freight and duty is only about USD 30 to 130 per t (our calculation).
• Manufacturing cost is not what blocks plant-based foods. The ex-factory cost of 3,800 to 7,900 VND per 100 g of protein is about 4 to 18 times below retail meat and egg protein (34,300 to 69,500 VND per 100 g; S12.10). Retail dried soy analogues sell at about 51,000 VND per 100 g of protein (one product) and a median of 64,584 across four products ^62,63, about 6 to 17 times the ex-factory cost (our calculation). The gap is distribution, brand and retail margin, and product quality.
• A different, dearer product. The earlier stack (3,000 t a year on one 1 t/h line, USD 792 to 2,065 per t) assumed European-scale equipment and, in its high case, a 50:50 blend of soy flour and soy protein concentrate at USD 1,300 per t. A concentrate-based texturate is a separate, dearer product; this stack covers plain flour-based TVP.

#S12.17 Caveats

1. Indicative only. Both stacks mix measured Vietnamese prices with engineering assumptions. They show which lines matter; they are not a basis for an investment decision.
2. Capex is the swing factor for fermentation and is the least Vietnamese of the inputs. No Vietnamese fermentation or extrusion capex was found; equipment majors' Vietnamese presence was not verified (Facilities and capacity). For textured soy the swing factor is the delivered flour price, not capex; the Chinese equipment prices are list prices, not quotes.
3. Electricity may change. A capacity charge could arrive from 2027, and Decree 278/2026 allows more frequent price moves.
4. Fishmeal is volatile. The August 2026 price is one month's value. The comparison with fishmeal changes from 54% above to 5% above between the 2025 average and August 2026.
5. Cooling is an estimate built from general rules and an unsourced wet-bulb assumption.
6. Tax treatment is unresolved. Whether a new feed ingredient counts as "animal feed" for VAT, and whether a fermentation plant qualifies for high-technology CIT incentives, are open questions (S9. Regulation).
7. Currency. All conversions use 26,000 VND per USD; the rate rose about 3 to 3.5% in 2025 ³⁰ VN-directMedium.

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#Gaps and how to close them

See R1. Open questions for the full register and R2. Disagreements for the conflicts on the blended power price, urea series, fishmeal price, minimum wage, capex per m3 and cooling.

#Related data files

• cost_inputs.csv: 61 Vietnamese input costs (electricity tariffs and blended prices, DPPA, grid emission factor, water, heat, labour, land, taxes, logistics, exchange rate), each with date, basis, source, label and confidence.
• commodity_prices.csv: 38 wave 1 commodity and retail protein prices (feed commodities, protein ingredients, carbon and nitrogen inputs, retail meat, eggs, tofu and analogues).
• tea_benchmarks.csv: 25 techno-economic benchmarks with scale, metric, cost-basis year, plant grade and whether the full text was read.
• feed_benchmarks.csv: the wave 2 fishmeal and soybean-meal series to August 2026 and prices per tonne of protein.
• tariffs.csv: import duties on feed and food protein inputs, with ATIGA and ACFTA rates; protein_tariffs_preferential.csv holds the fuller preferential schedule and VAT notes.
• t1_cost_per_kg.csv, t1_equipment_listings.csv, t1_landed_competitor.csv and t1_margin_payback.csv: the textured-soy cost stack, the Chinese equipment listings, the landed price of competing imports, and margins and payback at parity (S12.16).
• outlook.csv: World Bank forecasts and power-plan targets.
• retail_audit_summary_price_per_protein_by_type.csv: retail audit medians per 100 g of protein.
• countries.csv: regional comparison, including the GFI APAC and Hawkwood inputs.
• disagreements.csv and open_questions.csv: conflicting numbers and open questions.