O. Milestones and outlook data

This appendix holds the data behind Outlook. It gives the dated milestone calendar, the outlook numbers for 2030 and 2035 with their assumptions, the three-scenario scaffold, and a tracker that tells a reader which scenario is unfolding.

#O.1 Milestone calendar, 2025 to 2035 and beyond

All 30 rows of milestones.csv. "Status" is as of 23 September 2026.

#O.1.1 2025

The Law 93/2025 effective date is read from the law by the wave 1 regulation review; the wave 1 R&D review could not confirm it (DG-060).

#O.1.2 2026

#O.1.3 2027 to 2029

#O.1.4 2030 to 2035 and beyond

#O.1.5 What the calendar says

• Almost all regulatory change that matters for alternative protein falls in 2025 to 2027: the science law and new tax law (October 2025), E10 (June 2026), the high-tech lists (July 2026) and the Food Safety Law (vote at the second 2026 session, entry into force possibly January 2027) ^{13,23,12,19,26} VN-directMedium. An investment thesis can be tested against these events within about 18 months.
• After 2027 the calendar is made of targets, not rules: the 2030 targets of Resolutions 36 and 57 and Decision 1520, and the carbon market's full start in 2029 ^30,31,32,29 VN-directHigh.
• The Food Safety Law is the window that is closing. See G. Regulation and policy option PO-015.

#O.2 Population

From outlook.csv, UN World Population Prospects 2024 (medium variant), read through Our World in Data ³⁴ VN-directMedium.

• Headcount rises only about 4.9% from 2025 to 2035 (our arithmetic). Demand growth to 2035 will come mainly from income and diet change, not from more people ³⁴ VN-directMedium.
• The official statistics office estimate for 2025 is 102.3 million, about 0.7 million above the UN figure ^37,34 VN-directHigh. We use the official figure for 2025 facts and the UN series for projections, and never mix the two in a growth rate (DG-125).
• A secondary source says Vietnam becomes an "aged society" by 2035, with a total fertility rate of 1.91 in 2024 ³⁵ VN-directLow.

#O.3 Livestock and feed targets, and the growth they require

Targets (Decision 1520/QĐ-TTg, 2020) for 2030 ^32,33 VN-directHigh:

• meat output of 6.0 to 6.5 Mt carcass weight;
• 58 to 62 kg of meat per person;
• industrial feed output of 30 to 32 Mt, from 40 to 45 Mt of mill design capacity.

Meat: the two targets agree. 58 to 62 kg per person times the UN 2030 population of 104.25 million gives 6.05 to 6.46 Mt, which matches the 6.0 to 6.5 Mt output target (our calculation) ^34,32 VN-directMedium.

Feed: the base. Vietnam's feed mills made 21.5 Mt of livestock and poultry feed in 2024 (+3.4%) and about 22 Mt in 2025 (+3%). These figures exclude aquafeed ^38,39,40 VN-directHigh. Output in the first half of 2026 was 12.43 Mt (+7.5%) ⁴¹ VN-directMedium. Aquafeed estimates for 2025 disagree: 3.9 to 4.8 Mt from industry sources against 6.5 Mt from USDA; this is unresolved (DG-120) ^42,40 VN-directMedium. USDA puts total feed demand (animal plus aquafeed) at 28.6 Mt in 2025, rising to 30.6 Mt in 2027 ⁴⁰ VN-directMedium.

Feed: the required growth (our calculation). Compound annual growth needed to reach 30 to 32 Mt by 2030:

Formula: (target / base)^(1 / years) minus 1, with 6 years from 2024 and 5 years from 2025. Inputs: ^38,40,32 VN-directMedium.

Reading:

• If the target covers livestock and poultry feed only, it needs about twice the growth rate of 2024 and 2025 (about 3% a year), though the first half of 2026 ran at +7.5% ^40,41,38 VN-directMedium.
• If the target counts all industrial feed including aquafeed, it is already close: USDA's total of 28.6 Mt in 2025 and 30.6 Mt forecast for 2027 would meet it ⁴⁰ VN-directMedium. We did not establish which scope Decision 1520 uses. This matters for any claim about how much new protein Vietnam's feed industry will need.
• Either way, every increment of feed demand has so far been met by imports: about 99% of the soy protein in Vietnamese feed is imported ^43,44 VN-directHigh.

#O.4 Power: the revised PDP8

Decision 768/QĐ-TTg of 15 April 2025 ⁸ VN-directHigh:

Reading:

• The plan assumes 10% GDP growth a year from 2026 to 2030; actual growth was 8.02% in 2025 ^8,37 VN-directHigh. Electricity projections scale with this aggressive assumption.
• Today's grid is carbon-heavy: the latest official emission factor is 0.6592 tCO2/MWh for 2023 ⁴⁵ VN-directHigh. A power-intensive protein process has a high Scope 2 footprint unless it buys renewable power. PDP8 is the path by which that changes.

#O.5 Commodity prices: World Bank actuals and forecasts

#O.5.1 Annual actuals and forecasts (World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026)

All nominal US dollars. Forecasts end at 2027 ¹ generalHigh.

The latest monthly values are from the World Bank Pink Sheet of 2 September 2026 ²⁵ generalHigh. Maize had already passed the Bank's 2026 forecast by August 2026 ²⁵ generalHigh. The Bank expects overall commodity prices to rise 16% in 2026 on energy and fertiliser ¹ generalHigh.

Indices (2010 = 100): the World Bank food price index was 115.8 in 2024, 109.2 in 2025 and 118.8 in 2026 to date; the fertiliser index was 138.7 in 2025 and 188.2 in 2026 to date ²⁵ generalHigh.

#O.5.2 Fishmeal, soybean meal and the ratio between them

• Per tonne of protein. At 65% crude protein, fishmeal cost about USD 2,625 per tonne of protein in 2025 and USD 3,846 in August 2026. At 46% crude protein, soybean meal cost about USD 880 per tonne of protein in August 2026 ⁴⁶ generalHigh. These are our calculations from the World Bank prices. The outlook file (OUT-063) assumes 47% crude protein for soybean meal, which gives USD 857; we use 46% throughout the report.
• The ratio widened from 3.8 (2024) to 6.2 (August 2026). This improves the economics of fishmeal replacers in aquafeed faster than earlier drafts assumed. It is a monthly price and may revert ²⁵ generalHigh.
• Series definition. The World Bank series is labelled "Fishmeal, Peru Fish meal/pellets 65% protein, CIF" on the compiled monthly page used by the feed-market review; its annual means match the Pink Sheet ^46,47 generalHigh.
• Long-run context. Global fishmeal output is flat at about 4 to 4.5 Mt a year, and aquaculture takes most of it ^48,49 generalMedium.

#O.6 Climate targets

• Vietnam's 2022 NDC update sets 2030 emissions at 878 Mt CO2e (unconditional) and 629 Mt CO2e (conditional), as rated by Climate Action Tracker (updated 28 October 2025) ³⁶ VN-directMedium.
• We could not verify NDC 3.0 or any 2035 target with the tools allowed ³⁶ VN-directLow.
• The domestic carbon market runs as a pilot to the end of 2028 and in full from 2029. Pilot quotas cover thermal power, steel and cement, not agri-food ²⁹ VN-directMedium.
• Decision 300/QĐ-TTg targets a 10% cut in food-system greenhouse gas emissions against 2020 by 2030 ⁵⁰ VN-directMedium.

#O.7 Three plausible states of Vietnamese alternative protein in 2035

This is scenario thinking, not a forecast. Each state is internally consistent with the milestones above. Signposts are observable events that would tell a reader which path is unfolding. No probabilities are given. The scaffold was built by the wave 2 geography and timeline review ^19,25 VN-directMedium; the drivers draw on the legal, price and industry evidence cited in brackets.

#Scenario 1: "Status quo imports" (Vietnam as price-taker)

• Picture in 2035. Vietnam's alternative protein is mostly imported: Chinese SCP, yeast protein and textured vegetable protein, and food ingredients approved in Singapore or Thailand. Domestic activity is đồ chay (traditional vegetarian food) processing, tofu and a few insect-meal plants. Feed-protein imports grow with the feed industry.
• What drives it. The Food Safety Law passes without a "new food" route, or with one that has no workable procedure ⁵¹ VN-directMedium. Chinese scale keeps landed prices of SCP and textured protein below Vietnamese cost ^52,53 generalMedium. Fishmeal falls back from its 2026 peak. Agrifood venture capital stays near zero.
• Signposts. (1) The Food Safety Law and its decree contain no defined "new food / new ingredient" procedure by the end of 2027. (2) Customs data show rising imports of HS 2102 (yeasts), 2106 and 2309 from China. (3) No new domestic extruder or fermentation plant above pilot scale is announced by 2028. (4) Fishmeal stays below USD 1,800/t for a full year.

#Scenario 2: "Feed-first domestic build-out" (Vietnam as side-stream processor)

• Picture in 2035. Several Vietnamese plants turn side streams into feed protein for shrimp and fish feed. The side streams are cassava pulp in Tay Ninh (the former Tay Ninh cassava cluster, now merged with former Long An), brewers' spent grain in Ho Chi Minh City and Hai Phong, and seafood by-products in Ca Mau, An Giang and Can Tho. The products are insect meal, yeast or bacterial SCP, and duckweed. Food applications stay small.
• What drives it. Fishmeal stays high (above about USD 2,000/t). MAE keeps adding new ingredients to the feed permitted lists ⁵⁴ VN-directMedium. High-tech status (Decision 23/2026) and the 10% corporate income tax for 15 years are granted to fermentation plants ^13,23 VN-directMedium. Development finance institutions repeat the Entobel structure (private equity plus development finance plus an offtake) ^55,56 VN-directMedium. E10 demand makes cassava roots costly, which pushes processors towards pulp and other residues ^19,57 VN-directMedium.
• Signposts. (1) A second insect or SCP plant above 5,000 t/yr reaches financial close by 2028. (2) MAE list updates name SCP or new microbial proteins for aquafeed. (3) A top-5 aquafeed producer signs a multi-year offtake. (4) Fishmeal averages above USD 2,000/t in 2027. (5) MAE reports feed output on track for 30 Mt in 2030.

#Scenario 3: "Regulated food innovation hub" (Vietnam as regional producer)

• Picture in 2035. Vietnam has a working novel-food approval route that relies on Singapore, Korea and other reference regulators. It hosts contract fermentation (precision and biomass) for ASEAN brands. Ho Chi Minh City (including former Binh Duong) and Dong Nai are the manufacturing base. Domestic brands sell hybrid and fermented products.
• What drives it. The Food Safety Law (2026 or 2027) defines new food and allows reliance on reference regulators. A decree under Law 93/2025 names MOH or MOST as the approver for food sandbox tests ⁵⁸ VN-directMedium. High-tech certification works for precision fermentation ²³ VN-directMedium. Resolution 57 R&D money flows into a national protein platform ³⁰ VN-directMedium. PDP8 renewables and nuclear make low-carbon power available ⁸ VN-directMedium.
• Signposts. (1) The new Food Safety Law or its decree contains a thực phẩm mới (new food) definition and procedure. (2) The first sandbox approval for a food product. (3) A foreign precision-fermentation or contract-manufacturing firm registers an investment in Vietnam. (4) Vietnam joins or aligns with an ASEAN novel-food reliance mechanism. (5) Negative signpost: Thailand's GMP precision-fermentation pilot plant is built first and draws the same investors ¹⁵ VN-adjacentMedium.

The citations in this section support the drivers; the pictures and signposts are our constructions.

#Cross-cutting uncertainties

These four questions separate the scenarios. They are the variables to monitor, not outcomes:

1. Does the food law provide a workable novel-food gate?
2. Where does the gap between fishmeal and soybean meal prices sit, wide or narrow?
3. Can Vietnamese producers match Chinese prices at scale?
4. Does the state help with money and approvals, not only with strategy text?

#O.8 Signpost tracker

The tracker turns the signposts into checks. "Baseline" is the latest value found. "Suggested check" is our recommendation for how often to look, not a publication schedule we verified. "Threshold" is the level or event that would point towards a scenario.

#Gaps and how to close them

#Related data files

• milestones.csv: the 30 dated milestones in section O.1.
• outlook.csv: the 75 outlook rows used in sections O.2 to O.6, with type (measured, target, projected, derived) and assumptions.
• macro_indicators.csv: feed output, imports and macro context (see Why Vietnam).
• feed_benchmarks.csv: fishmeal and soybean meal prices per tonne of protein (see Feed and aquafeed market).
• disagreements.csv: DG-060, DG-084, DG-115, DG-116, DG-120, DG-122 and DG-125 to DG-127 (see R. Disagreements).
• Working paper: working-papers/wave2/geo_time/geo_time.md.