13. Outlook to 2035

In one paragraph. The calendar is front-loaded. Vietnam's new science and corporate tax laws took effect in October 2025, E10 petrol became mandatory in June 2026, new high-technology lists applied from July 2026, and a new Food Safety Law is due before the National Assembly in its second 2026 session, possibly in force from 1 January 2027. By 2030 the state targets 30 to 32 Mt of industrial feed and 6.0 to 6.5 Mt of meat; population will grow only about 5% between 2025 and 2035, so demand growth will come from income and diet. Fishmeal reached its highest price this decade in August 2026, six times the price of soybean meal. Which of three plausible paths Vietnam takes by 2035 depends on four things: whether the food law opens a workable route for new ingredients, whether the fishmeal-soy price gap stays wide, whether Vietnamese producers can approach Chinese costs, and whether the state backs its biotechnology strategy with money and approvals. Most of these will be observable by 2028.

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#13.1 The calendar

Full list: milestones.csv (30 events).

The calendar is front-loaded

Milestones 2025 to 2035

#13.2 The numbers that frame 2030 and 2035

Reading.

• Feed is the growth engine. Reaching 30 to 32 Mt by 2030 from 21.5 Mt in 2024 means 5.7 to 6.9% growth a year, or 8.5 to 10.5 Mt more feed a year by 2030 (our calculation from ^20,17) VN-directMedium. Every extra tonne needs protein, which today is almost entirely imported (Why Vietnam). Edition 1.1: the feed scheme (Decision 1625/QD-TTg) indicates that the target covers livestock feed only ²⁴ VN-directMedium, which makes it look out of reach; see Protein balance 2050. Part V extends this outlook to 2050 (Drivers to 2050 to Robust moves).
• Demand growth comes from diet, not headcount. Population grows about 5% from 2025 to 2035 and peaks around 2049 ¹⁸ VN-directMedium.
• The fishmeal-soy gap is at a high. The ratio of fishmeal to soybean meal prices widened from 3.8 in 2024 to 6.2 in August 2026 ²¹ generalHigh. Global fishmeal supply is flat at about 4 to 4.5 Mt a year while aquafeed demand grows ^25,26 generalMedium, which supports high prices, but monthly prices can fall back with Peruvian fishing seasons.
• No official long-run feed price paths exist. World Bank forecasts stop at 2027 ²³ generalHigh. Any 2030 or 2035 price is a scenario assumption.

#13.3 Three plausible states in 2035

#Scenario 1: Import price-taker

• Picture. Vietnam's alternative protein is mostly imported: Chinese single-cell protein, yeast protein and textured soy, and food ingredients approved in Singapore or Thailand. Domestic activity is chay processing, tofu and a few insect-meal plants. Feed protein imports grow with the feed industry.
• Drivers. The Food Safety Law passes without a workable new-food route. Chinese scale keeps landed prices below Vietnamese cost. Fishmeal falls back from its 2026 peak. Agritech venture capital stays near zero.
• Signposts. No defined new-food procedure in the law or decree by the end of 2027; rising imports of yeasts and protein preparations from China; no domestic extruder or fermentation plant above pilot scale announced by 2028; fishmeal below USD 1,800 per tonne for a full year.

#Scenario 2: Feed-first domestic build-out

• Picture. Several Vietnamese plants turn side streams into feed protein: cassava pulp in Tay Ninh, brewer's spent grain near Ho Chi Minh City and Hai Phong, seafood by-products in the Mekong Delta. Products are yeast or bacterial protein, duckweed and insect meal. Food applications stay small.
• Drivers. Fishmeal stays above about USD 2,000 per tonne. MAE keeps adding new ingredients to the feed lists. High-tech incentives reach fermentation plants. Development finance repeats the Entobel structure (private equity, a DFI and an offtake). E10 demand makes cassava roots costly, pushing processors towards residues.
• Signposts. A second insect or microbial-protein plant above 5,000 t a year reaches financial close by 2028; a feed-list update names microbial protein for aquafeed; a top-five aquafeed producer signs a multi-year offtake; fishmeal averages above USD 2,000 per tonne in 2027; feed output on track for 30 Mt in 2030.

#Scenario 3: Regulated regional hub

• Picture. Vietnam has a working new-food route that relies on Singapore, Korea and other reference regulators. It hosts contract fermentation for ASEAN brands, with Ho Chi Minh City and Dong Nai as the manufacturing base. Domestic brands sell hybrid and fermented products.
• Drivers. The new law defines new food and allows reliance. A decree makes the science-law sandbox usable for food. High-tech certification works for precision fermentation. Resolution 57 research money funds a national protein platform. Renewables make low-carbon power available.
• Signposts. A "new food" (thực phẩm mới) definition and procedure in the law or decree; the first sandbox approval for a food product; a foreign precision-fermentation or contract-manufacturing firm registers an investment in Vietnam; Vietnam aligns with an ASEAN novel-food reliance mechanism. A negative signpost: Thailand's planned public precision-fermentation pilot plant is built first and draws the same investors (Region).

Source for all three scenarios: AltProtein Vietnam synthesis of ^{9,2,21,11,10,27,28} and chapters 2 to 12 VN-directLow.

Three plausible states in 2035

Placed on two of the four uncertainties: the food-law route and the fishmeal-soy price gap

Food-law route: no workable route

Food-law route: workable route with reliance

Price gap: wide

Price gap: narrow

S1 Import price-taker

Food-law route: No workable route. Fishmeal-soy price gap: Narrow.

Picture

Alternative protein mostly imported: Chinese SCP, yeast protein and TVP, and food ingredients approved in Singapore or Thailand.

Drivers

No new-food route; Chinese scale undercuts; fishmeal falls back; venture capital near zero.

Signposts

No new-food procedure by end-2027; rising imports from China; no domestic plant above pilot by 2028; fishmeal below USD 1,800 per t for a year.

S2 Feed-first domestic build-out

Food-law route: Not decisive (feed rules already more open). Fishmeal-soy price gap: Wide.

Picture

Vietnamese plants turn side streams into feed protein; food applications stay small.

Drivers

Fishmeal above about USD 2,000 per t; feed lists updated; high-tech incentives reach fermentation; DFI plus PE plus offtake repeats.

Signposts

Second plant above 5,000 t a year by 2028; feed list names microbial protein for aquafeed; top-five aquafeed offtake; fishmeal above USD 2,000 in 2027.

S3 Regulated regional hub

Food-law route: Workable route with reliance. Fishmeal-soy price gap: Either.

Picture

Working new-food route relying on reference regulators; contract fermentation for ASEAN brands.

Drivers

New-food definition and reliance; food sandbox decree; high-tech certification works; national protein research platform.

Signposts

Thuc pham moi definition in law or decree; first food sandbox approval; foreign CDMO invests; ASEAN reliance; negative: Thai public PF pilot built first.

The scenarios are not exclusive. Scenario 2 can happen without Scenario 3, since feed rules are already more open than food rules. Scenario 3 is unlikely without at least part of Scenario 2, because the same fermentation skills, pilot capacity and investors are needed.

#13.4 Four uncertainties to track

Two regional events also matter: whether Thailand builds its public precision-fermentation pilot plant and contract-manufacturing network ²⁷ VN-adjacentMedium, and what lies behind the September 2026 termination notice for a Thai biotechnology plant ²⁹ VN-adjacentLow.

#13.5 What this means

• Investors: the key regulatory events fall within 18 months. The fishmeal-soy ratio is a leading indicator for feed-protein deals; track it monthly.
• Policy makers: the Food Safety Law window is the one that closes. The 2030 feed target implies a large new protein requirement that will be met by imports unless domestic options are ready.
• Startups: build on residues rather than cassava roots, which now compete with fuel ethanol; use the new province names in licences and documents.
• Manufacturers: the feed target implies 8.5 to 10.5 Mt more feed a year by 2030 than in 2024, with a volatile fishmeal price; multi-supplier protein strategies reduce exposure.
• Research bodies and international bodies: long-run projections for Vietnamese feed, meat and aquaculture are missing from public sources we could reach; a published baseline would help everyone plan.

Related: O. Outlook data (all projections with assumptions), Unknowns, Policy options.