Appendix ZNew in edition 1.1
Z. Aquafeed, marine ingredients and carbon feedstocks to 2050
The evidence behind the aquafeed and carbon-feedstock parts of chapters 16 and 17: fisheries targets, three aquaculture paths to 2050, trash-fish replacement, marine ingredients and omega-3, protein crops and climate, and whether residues, side streams and one-carbon feedstocks could supply the 1.32 Mt of glucose that the stretch scenario needs in 2050. All 2040 and 2050 values are our what-if estimates, not forecasts.
On this page
- Z.1 Official targets and published projections
- Z.2 Our three aquaculture paths
- Z.3 Trash fish: use, supply cuts and replacement
- Z.4 Marine finfish and offshore cages
- Z.5 World marine ingredients to 2035 and 2050
- Z.6 Omega-3: needs, supply gap and alternatives
- Z.7 Protein crops and biotech rules
- Z.8 Climate and aquaculture geography
- Z.9 The S-ALT glucose need and competing uses
- Z.10 Rice straw
- Z.11 Cassava pulp, liquid side streams, food waste and manure biogas
- Z.12 Rules as a ceiling
- Z.13 Cases A, B and C for 2040 and 2050
- Z.14 Land: released rice land and protein per hectare
- Z.15 Gaps, disagreements and open questions
- Data files
What this appendix contains. The evidence and calculations behind Protein balance 2050 (sections 17.5 and 17.6) and Frontier technology (section 16.5). Part 1 (Z.1 to Z.8) covers targets, our aquaculture paths to 2050, trash fish, offshore cages, marine ingredients, omega-3, protein crops and climate. Part 2 (Z.9 to Z.14) asks whether residues, side streams and one-carbon feedstocks could supply the glucose that the S-ALT scenario needs, and what released rice land could grow. Technology status and costs of cellulosic sugar and one-carbon routes are in V. Frontier technology; the balance model is in W. Balance model.
How to use it. Feed manufacturers and investors: Z.3, Z.4 and Z.6. Policy makers: Z.1, Z.3, Z.10 and Z.12. Founders choosing a fermentation site: Z.9, Z.11 and Z.13. Signposts are in X. Drivers and signals.
Part 1. Aquafeed and marine ingredients
Z.1 Official targets and published projections
| Source | 2030 | Beyond 2030 | Type and evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Decision 339/QD-TTg (2021), fisheries strategy | Aquaculture 7.0 Mt; capture 2.8 Mt | 2045: "top three" producer; no volume | Official target 3,4 |
| Decision 1664/QD-TTg (2021), marine aquaculture | 1.45 Mt on 300,000 ha; offshore 340 kt | 2045: over 25% of fisheries output | Official target 5 |
| Decision 389/QD-TTg (2024), fisheries resources | At most about 83,600 vessels; trawlers 10% | 2050: qualitative only | Official target 6 |
| Decision 231/QD-TTg (2025), Khanh Hoa pilot | 8,700 t on 440 ha by 2029 | none | Official target 7 |
| OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 | Aquaculture 6.12 Mt; implied capture 3.50 Mt | 2035: aquaculture 6.83 Mt | Published model 8 |
| Fish to 2050 in the ASEAN region (IMPACT) | ASEAN aquaculture 24.8 Mt | 2050: 27.4 Mt; no Vietnam figure | Published model 9 |
| FAO SOFIA 2026 | none | 2034: 214 Mt of aquatic animals, world | Published projection 10 |
- No Vietnam-specific projection beyond 2035. We checked Decisions 339, 1664 and 389 and Fish to 2050 and found no published volume after 2035 and no national species-level target for 2030 4,9 . The only later anchor is the 2045 vision that marine aquaculture should supply "trên 25% tổng sản lượng" (over 25% of total output), read as total fisheries output 5 .
- The published model sits below the target and ignores the fleet cut. OECD-FAO holds capture near 3.5 Mt in 2030, 25% above the 2.8 Mt target (our subtraction of aquaculture from total fish) 8,3 . Its 2025 base (5.69 Mt) is below the NSO figure of 6.12 Mt 11 . We show both and do not average them.
- Marine aquaculture is behind plan: about 730 kt in 2021 12 against 850 kt targeted for 2025; we found no 2025 outturn .
- Lobster value is ahead of the volume plan. Lobster exports to China were USD 845 M in 2025 and over USD 506 M in January to May 2026 (+44.3%) 13, against a 2030 output target of 5 kt .
- Growth after 2030 is the largest open number. IMPACT implies ASEAN aquaculture growth of about 0.5% a year from 2030 to 2050 (our calculation from 9) , while Vietnamese aquaculture grew 5.1% in 2025 and 5.7% in the first half of 2026 11,14 .
Z.2 Our three aquaculture paths
| Path | To 2035 | After 2035 | Marine finfish, 2050 | Relation to the balance model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQ-LOW | OECD-FAO growth | Flat | 180 kt | Its low aquaculture sensitivity |
| AQ-BASE | OECD-FAO growth | +1% a year | 450 kt | The S-BASE index plus faster marine finfish |
| AQ-HIGH | 7.0 Mt target met in 2030 | +2% a year | 1,000 kt | Above S-HIGH (9.0 Mt in 2050; balance_outputs.csv, BLO-0473) |
All paths: . Marine finfish is carved out of "other fish" from an assumed 80 kt in 2025.
Output by species group, kt live weight. 2025 measured 11 ; later years our calculation, aqf_calc.py .
| Species group | 2025 | AQ-BASE 2030 | AQ-BASE 2040 | AQ-BASE 2050 | AQ-LOW 2050 | AQ-HIGH 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pangasius | 1,939 | 2,086 | 2,444 | 2,700 | 2,326 | 3,297 |
| Whiteleg shrimp | 994 | 1,070 | 1,254 | 1,385 | 1,193 | 1,691 |
| Black tiger and other crustaceans | 387 | 417 | 488 | 539 | 465 | 659 |
| Other fish | 2,016 | 2,169 | 2,542 | 2,808 | 2,418 | 3,429 |
| Marine finfish | 80 | 150 | 300 | 450 | 180 | 1,000 |
| Unfed (molluscs, seaweed, other) | 700 | 753 | 883 | 975 | 840 | 1,191 |
| Total | 6,117 | 6,644 | 7,911 | 8,857 | 7,421 | 11,266 |
Feed and protein needs (our calculation, aqf_calc.py)
| Path and year | Aquafeed, Mt | Feed CP, Mt (industry scale) | Shrimp plus marine feed, Mt |
|---|---|---|---|
| All paths, 2025 | 6.45 | 2.00 (1.34) | 1.49 |
| AQ-LOW 2030 / 2040 / 2050 | 7.02 / 7.99 / 8.01 | 2.18 / 2.49 / 2.50 (1.68) | 1.63 / 1.88 / 1.91 |
| AQ-BASE 2030 / 2040 / 2050 | 7.06 / 8.64 / 9.72 | 2.20 / 2.73 / 3.10 (2.07) | 1.67 / 2.22 / 2.64 |
| AQ-HIGH 2030 / 2040 / 2050 | 7.57 / 9.89 / 12.53 | 2.36 / 3.16 / 4.08 (2.73) | 1.83 / 2.78 / 3.89 |
Coefficients (our assumptions). FCR on pellets 1.5 for all groups except whiteleg shrimp (1.3), improving 0.3% a year. Dietary CP: pangasius 27%, shrimp 40%, other fish 30%, marine finfish 45%; the shrimp and marine values sit within the 40 to 43% of standard shrimp feeds 15 and the 40 to 50% of marine feeds 16 . Share of output on pellets from 2025 to 2050: pangasius and whiteleg 100%; other shrimp 30 to 50%; other fish 68 to 85%; marine finfish 15% rising to 60% (LOW), 95% (BASE) or 100% (HIGH).
How AQ-BASE relates to S-BASE. AQ-BASE gives 8.86 Mt of aquaculture and 9.72 Mt of aquafeed in 2050, against 8.52 Mt and 9.24 Mt in S-BASE (balance_outputs.csv, BLO-0223, BLO-0235). The gap is only the faster marine finfish path; aquaculture growth after 2035 moves the 2050 soybean-meal result by about 1 Mt at most (W. Balance model) . Across our paths, 2050 aquafeed protein spans 1.6 Mt (2.5 to 4.1 Mt of CP): growth after 2030 matters more than formulation.
Z.3 Trash fish: use, supply cuts and replacement
Cá tạp (trash fish: low-value fish, crustaceans and molluscs, mostly trawl by-catch).
| Item | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Trash fish landed, 2001 | 0.93 Mt, 36% of marine landings; two thirds from the Gulf of Thailand; up to 80% of trawl catch in former Kien Giang (now An Giang) | 17 |
| Fed directly to aquaculture, 2002 | 0.18 to 0.32 Mt (pangasius, shrimp, grouper, lobster); about 185 kt to fish powder and 80 kt to fishmeal | 17 |
| Trawlers | 16,400 (2008) to 20,340 (2016) | 18 |
| Fishmeal factories, 2017 | 96, with 675 kt of documented capacity; 81 name "sea fish" as main raw material | 18 |
| South-central mariculture, 2021 | About 90% of stakeholders fed trash fish as main feed; 9.41% used pellets; lobster FCR 35 to 40 | 19 |
| Other users | All southern mud-crab farmers; cobia, grouper and snapper cages | 20,21 |
Pangasius and whiteleg shrimp have since moved to pellets, and up to 0.3 Mt of snakehead pellets in 2025 suggests most snakehead has too 2 .
The capture plan. Decision 389 caps trawlers at about 8,360 by 2030, about 59% fewer than in 2016 (our calculation from 6,18) , and capture is to fall from 3.83 Mt (2025) 11 to 2.8 Mt (2030) 3 . Trawl catch is the main source of trash fish, so low-value fish for direct feeding and for whole-fish meal should fall sharply by 2030 . Decision 339 orders "thức ăn công nghiệp thay thế sử dụng cá tạp" (industrial feed to replace trash fish) and Decision 1664 orders feed zones next to sea farms, but neither sets a volume or date 3,5 .
Direct trash-fish feeding in 2025 (our calculation, aqf_calc.py)
| Group | Output, kt (low / central / high) | Not on pellets | Wet FCR | Trash fish, kt | Pellets to replace it, kt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine finfish | 60 / 80 / 120 | 80 to 90% | 5 to 8 | 240 / 408 / 864 | 72 / 102 / 162 |
| Lobster | 3 / 4 / 5 | 100% | 20 to 40 | 60 / 112 / 200 | 9 / 12 / 15 |
| Mud crab and other crustaceans | 20 / 40 / 60 | 80 to 100% | 4 to 6 | 64 / 180 / 360 | 32 / 72 / 120 |
| Freshwater carnivores | 10 / 16 / 30 | 100% | 4 to 6 | 40 / 80 / 180 | 15 / 24 / 45 |
| Total | 404 / 780 / 1,604 | 128 / 210 / 342 |
The central case is about 20% of 2025 capture (10 to 42%) and carries about 133 kt of protein at 17% CP. Pellets that replace it need only about 88 kt of CP (54 to 144 kt), because they convert about four times better. The 2002 figure is not comparable: the species mix has changed.
Extra formulated feed over 2025, from marine finfish growth plus conversion of the other trash-fish species (15, 30 and 50% converted by 2030 in LOW, BASE and HIGH; 40, 70 and 90% by 2040; 60, 90 and 100% by 2050; our calculation, aqf_calc.py)
| Path | Extra pellets 2030 / 2040 / 2050, kt | Extra CP 2040 / 2050, kt | Extra fishmeal 2030 / 2040 / 2050, kt | Share of aquafeed 2040 / 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQ-LOW | 40 / 131 / 210 | 56 / 90 | 7 / 18 / 25 | 1.6% / 2.6% |
| AQ-BASE | 106 / 421 / 712 | 181 / 306 | 19 / 59 / 85 | 4.9% / 7.3% |
| AQ-HIGH | 192 / 827 / 1,557 | 356 / 670 | 34 / 116 / 187 | 8.4% / 12.4% |
Fishmeal is at 20% of marine pellets in 2025, falling to 12% by 2050 (the hypothesis in Feed and aquafeed market, H6, is 15 to 30%). Reading: to 2050 the transition is a small share of aquafeed tonnage but a large share of the premium segment, where a novel protein or oil competes with fishmeal and fish oil, not soybean meal .
Z.4 Marine finfish and offshore cages
Decision 1664 targets for fed species 5 (official target): marine finfish 120 kt in 2025 and 200 kt in 2030 (of which offshore 60 and 120 kt); lobster 3 and 5 kt; other crustaceans 67 and 95 kt; all fed species 190 and 300 kt (our sum). Offshore (nuôi biển xa bờ: offshore sea farming) is 340 kt of all species on 30,000 ha by 2030. The offshore provinces are, on the current map, Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, Quang Ngai, Dak Lak (former Phu Yen), Khanh Hoa (including former Ninh Thuan), Lam Dong (former Binh Thuan), Ho Chi Minh City (former Ba Ria-Vung Tau), Ca Mau and An Giang (former Kien Giang).
The Khanh Hoa pilot. Decision 231/QD-TTg (January 2025) allows 240 ha at 0 to 3 nautical miles (3,600 t) and 200 ha at 3 to 6 nautical miles (5,100 t) to 2029 in HDPE cages, phased 30 ha (2025), 100 ha (2026 to 2027) and 110 ha (2028 to 2029) 7 . The phases add up to 240 ha; we could not see how the outer 200 ha is phased. Pilot HDPE farms reported profits of 172% (cobia), 112% (lobster) and 131.4% (grouper) of same-size wooden-cage farms (provincial claim) 7 . Storm No. 12 (2017) destroyed wooden cages there 23, and HDPE cages hold up to 300 t of cobia each 21 .
Feed capacity. Marine-fish feed capacity was 40,000 to 50,000 t a year in 2022, over 80% foreign-owned 22 . De Heus opened a marine and cold-water fish feed mill in Vinh Long in July 2026, 168,000 t a year by the company's figure 16 . We found no national count or target for recirculating (RAS) farms.
Where protein and omega-3 concentrate (marine finfish pellets; our calculation, aqf_calc.py)
| Path and year | Pellets, kt (share of aquafeed) | CP, kt (share of aquafeed CP) | Fishmeal, kt | EPA plus DHA, kt (share of need) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 (0.3%) | 8 (0.4%) | 4 | 0.2 (2%) |
| AQ-BASE 2030 | 89 (1.3%) | 40 (1.8%) | 16 | 0.9 (7%) |
| AQ-BASE 2040 | 344 (4.0%) | 155 (5.7%) | 48 | 3.4 (19%) |
| AQ-BASE 2050 | 595 (6.1%) | 268 (8.7%) | 71 | 5.9 (28%) |
| AQ-HIGH 2050 | 1,391 (11.1%) | 626 (15.3%) | 167 | 13.9 (42%) |
Offshore growth is pellet growth, because offshore cages cannot use trash fish at scale. The 120 kt offshore target for 2030 alone would need about 177 kt of pellets (120 kt x 1.5 x 0.985), twice AQ-BASE's 2030 estimate (our calculation) .
Z.5 World marine ingredients to 2035 and 2050
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 (our extension) | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World fishmeal, Mt | 5.67 | 5.36 | 5.98 | 6.27 | 6.0 to 7.6 | 8 ; 2050 |
| World fish oil, Mt | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.44 | 1.49 | 1.4 to 1.7 | As above |
| By-product share of fishmeal | 34% | 42 to 54% | 24 ; 2050 | |||
| By-product share of fish oil | 54% | Rising | 24 |
- OECD-FAO builds El Niño years into 2027 and 2031, with Peru's fishmeal at 0.72 and 0.53 Mt against about 1.1 Mt in normal years 8 .
- 2026 runs below the model. Peru's first 2026 season landed about 25% of a 1.9 Mt quota, and world fishmeal output fell 26% year on year in January to April 2026 25,26 . NOAA gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño in winter 2026 to 2027 27 .
- Our 2050 extension: whole-fish meal flat or down at 3.2 to 3.8 Mt, plus by-product meal of 2.8 to 3.8 Mt, up from about 1.9 Mt in 2024 (
aqf_calc.py) . Later this century, extreme El Niño events about double in frequency under high emissions in older models 28, a finding contested for the newest ones; the IPCC finds ENSO rainfall variability very likely amplified in 2050 to 2100 29 . Almost 12 Mt of processing by-products are still not collected, most of the potential in Asia 24 .
Vietnam's own supply
| Item | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fishmeal production, kt | 325 | 389 | 420 | Pangasius-derived alone 270 / 314 / 383 (LOW / BASE / HIGH) | 8 ; 2050 |
| Fishmeal feed use, kt | 221 | 309 | 339 | 151 to 393 | As above |
| Fishmeal exports / imports, kt | 260 / 156 | 248 / 168 | 249 / 168 | Net exporter by volume | 8 |
| Fish oil production, kt | 190 | 205 | 219 | Pangasius oil 258 / 300 / 366 | As fishmeal production |
| EPA plus DHA in that oil, kt | 0.4 to 0.6 | 0.5 to 1.1 | 30 and our calculation |
- Pangasius off-cuts are the base. Pangasius supplied 12% of the world's by-product fishmeal and 29% of its by-product fish oil in 2024 24 : about 225 kt of meal (5.52 Mt x 34% x 12%) and 215 kt of oil (1.375 Mt x 54% x 29%), or 0.116 t of meal and 0.111 t of oil per t of fish (our calculation). By-products are 62 to 67% of the whole fish 31 .
- The 2050 fishmeal-demand range runs from 151 kt (S-EFF, S-ALT) and 253 kt (S-BASE) to 393 kt if the OECD-FAO 2035 value grows 1% a year (our calculation) .
- Reading. Vietnam can plausibly stay self-sufficient in fishmeal volume to 2050 through by-products, but stays short of high-grade (65% CP) meal for shrimp and marine feeds, which it imports today (Feed and aquafeed market, H5) .
Z.6 Omega-3: needs, supply gap and alternatives
EPA plus DHA need in aquafeed, kt a year (central values; our calculation, aqf_calc.py)
| Species group (need, % of diet) | 2025 | AQ-BASE 2030 | AQ-BASE 2040 | AQ-BASE 2050 | AQ-HIGH 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pangasius (0.05) | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Whiteleg shrimp (0.5) | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 10.2 |
| Other shrimp and crustaceans (0.5) | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Other fish (0.1) | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| Marine finfish (1.0) | 0.2 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Total (range) | 11.0 (4.5 to 22.0) | 12.7 (5.4 to 24.9) | 17.5 (8.0 to 33.2) | 21.4 (10.3 to 39.8) | 32.8 (17.2 to 58.5) |
The ranges use 0.3 to 1.0% for shrimp, 0.7 to 1.5% for marine finfish 32 and 0 to 0.2% for freshwater fish. AQ-LOW gives 14.8 kt in 2050. The AQ-BASE 2050 need equals about 85 kt of marine fish oil at 25% EPA plus DHA (41 to 159 kt), part of it supplied by residual oil in fishmeal.
Vietnam's fish oil is not an omega-3 source. Oil from pangasius processing waste holds 0.07 to 0.15% EPA and 0.10 to 0.16% DHA in its fatty acids, in a study of Indonesian farmed pangasius 30 . Vietnam's 190 kt of fish oil therefore holds only about 0.4 to 0.6 kt of EPA plus DHA (our calculation), against a need of about 11 kt .
The global gap. World EPA plus DHA supply is "optimistically estimated at just over 0.8 million tonnes", with a shortfall of more than 0.4 Mt, or over 1 Mt in pessimistic calculations; almost 90% comes from capture fisheries 33 .
Alternatives on the market
| Product | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Algal oil (Schizochytrium), Veramaris | USD 200 M plant (2019) on US corn syrup; capacity claimed equal to 1.2 Mt of wild fish and about 15% of salmon farming's EPA plus DHA need; about twice fish oil's content; used in salmon, shrimp and marine-fish feeds | 34,35,33 (company claims) |
| Algal omega-3, Corbion | Reported in about 30% of salmon diets (basis unclear) | 35 |
| Omega-3 canola oil (transgenic) | Replaced 100% of fish oil in low-fishmeal whiteleg shrimp diets without growth loss | 36 |
| Vietnamese rules | 6 GE canola events approved for food and feed; the aquafeed permitted list has no microalgae | 37,38 |
Credible 2050 shares for alternative ingredients (AQ-BASE; our calculation, aqf_calc.py)
| Item | Low end | High end |
|---|---|---|
| Fishmeal replaced (of 253 kt, at 65% CP) | 10%: 16 kt of protein | 40% (as in S-ALT; trials support 25 to 60%): 66 kt |
| Functional inclusion in shrimp and marine feeds (2,640 kt, at 70% CP) | 1%: 18 kt | 3%: 55 kt |
| Soybean-meal protein in all aquafeed (1,252 kt) | None | 5%: 63 kt |
| Novel protein, total | 35 kt (1.1% of aquafeed CP; 1.7% on the industry scale) | 184 kt (5.9%; 8.9%) |
| Non-marine EPA plus DHA (share of 21.4 kt) | 15%: 3.2 kt, about 6 kt of algal oil | 50%: 10.7 kt, about 21 kt of algal oil |
- Why omega-3 can go further than protein: Vietnam has no domestic EPA plus DHA; the global gap is structural; the products are commercial and trialled in shrimp; and value per tonne of feed is high . On protein, the soybean-meal slice is priced out at 2026 costs (4.6 to 5.1 times soybean-meal protein, Feed and aquafeed market, H11), and Chinese single-cell protein competes for the fishmeal slice.
- Binding conditions to 2050: the fish-oil price in El Niño years, listing of algal and transgenic oils as aquafeed raw materials, and import cost . A Vietnamese algal-oil plant would need sugar or glycerol, which links omega-3 to Part 2.
- Chapter 19 adopts the 15 to 50% range as a normative goal (Vision 2050).
Z.7 Protein crops and biotech rules
Soybean in Vietnam
| Year | Area, kha | Yield, t per ha | Bean imports, Mt | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | About 205 (peak) | 39 | ||
| 2021 | 36.8 | 39 | ||
| 2024 to 2025 | Under 20 (press) or 39.0 (OECD-FAO) | 1.62 (press) or 1.28 (OECD-FAO) | 2.50 to 2.60 | 39,8 |
| 2030 | 39.3 | 1.19 | 2.91 | 8 |
| 2035 | 38.9 | 1.15 | 3.11 | 8 |
- We use 20 to 39 kha for current area and OECD-FAO for projections; the yield series disagree and we leave that unresolved . Domestic beans cost VND 25,000 to 30,000 per kg against VND 13,000 to 15,000 for imports, and profit is about VND 20 million per ha 39 . Domestic beans go to food, whose use alone was 540 kt in 2025 40 .
- The crop strategy (Decision 1748) sets no soybean, maize or cassava target 41 . A press proposal for winter soybean on 300 kha of Red River Delta rice land is not an adopted plan 39 .
What-if: domestic soybean in 2050. Bean-equivalent need is soybean-meal need divided by 0.78: 13.3 Mt in S-BASE and 9.0 Mt in S-EFF (our calculation) .
| Area and yield | Beans, kt | Share of S-BASE need | Share of S-EFF need |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 kha x 1.28 t per ha (today) | 50 | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| 100 kha x 2.0 t per ha | 200 | 1.5% | 2.2% |
| 300 kha x 2.5 t per ha | 750 | 5.6% | 8.4% |
Domestic beans would first displace food-soy imports, so their contribution to feed protein by 2050 is close to zero unless better varieties close the yield gap and a feed-grade price is supported .
Biotech rules
| Item | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| GE events for food and feed | 60 in total. By crop: maize 16, soybean 15, cotton 10 and alfalfa 4 (feed only), canola 6, sugar beet 1; these sum to 52, and we could not place the other 8 | 37 |
| GE maize for cultivation | 31 hybrids; about half of feed-maize area in 2023 to 2024 | 37 |
| GE soybean | No field-test application ever submitted; gene-edited high-protein lines in greenhouse biosafety evaluation | 37 |
| Decree 43/2026/ND-CP | Gene-edited organisms without foreign DNA leave GMO rules (notification at MAE); approval cut from 90 to 45 working days for events cleared in five OECD or G20 countries; refined products are not "GM food"; first rules for GM microorganisms in contained production | 42 (secondary summary) |
Reading. Gene editing is the only long-run route by which domestic soybean could matter for feed; the first signals to watch between 2026 and 2035 are a notification under Decree 43/2026 or a field-test application . Duckweed and azolla have been fed in northern Vietnam for centuries 43,44, but we found no current area or volume data .
Z.8 Climate and aquaculture geography
| Driver | Evidence | Effect on aquafeed by 2050 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mekong salinity | Salinity-affected area up 10 to 27% by about 2050 from subsidence and riverbed incision, plus 6 to 19% from sea-level rise (climate_impacts_2050.csv, CI-11, CI-12) | Coastal land moves from rice to shrimp: more protein-dense, fishmeal-using feed | 45,46,47 |
| Pangasius sites | All 2009 farm sites face 2 m floods at +50 cm of sea-level rise (after 2050 in most scenarios); at +75 cm salinity shortens grow-out in Can Tho (former Soc Trang), Vinh Long (former Ben Tre) and Dong Thap (former Tien Giang) | Pangasius feed demand may move rather than shrink | 48 |
| Pangasius range | "Likely to expand northward", with the Red River Delta playing a larger role | Pangasius feed mills in the north | 49 |
| Northern warming | 1.2 to 1.3 °C by 2050 slows tilapia growth | Poorer feed conversion for northern tilapia | 49 |
| Typhoons and floods | Wooden cages lost in 2017; 1.1 Mt of farmed output at risk of flood loss each year | Shift to HDPE and pellets; supply shocks | 23,50 |
| El Niño | Hits fishmeal and fish oil together | Price spikes in marine ingredients | 28,29 |
About 80% of Vietnamese shrimp is farmed in the Mekong Delta 49 . We found no dated SSP-based projection of Vietnamese shrimp or pangasius output, and no quantified link between heat and disease. On current evidence, climate to 2050 changes where aquafeed is used more than how much .
Part 2. Carbon feedstocks
Z.9 The S-ALT glucose need and competing uses
The sugar route in S-ALT needs 238 kt of glucose in 2030, 852 kt in 2040 and 1,318 kt in 2050 (balance_outputs.csv, BLO-0888, BLO-1048, BLO-1128) . S-ALT is a stretch above every real-world analogue (Protein balance 2050), so this is an upper test, not an expected demand.
| Year | Glucose, kt | As fresh cassava roots, kt | Cassava land, kha | Or as sucrose, kt | Urea, kt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 238 | 968 | 47 | 226 | 22 |
| 2040 | 852 | 3,473 | 169 | 810 | 79 |
| 2050 | 1,318 | 5,368 | 262 | 1,252 | 122 |
Source: balance model, tools/balance_model.py .
| Competing use (2025 or 2026) | Value | Share taken by the 2050 need | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic cassava harvest | 10.24 Mt of fresh roots (2025) | About 52% | 51 |
| Roots bought by factories | Over 18 Mt a year, about 42% imported | About 30% | 52 |
| Cassava starch exports | About 2.49 Mt (2025), over 90% to China | 1.22 Mt of starch: about half | 51 |
| Fuel ethanol (E10) | Mandatory from 1 June 2026; three plants make 830 m3 a day; about 80% of E10 ethanol still imported in mid-2026 | Competes for chips and roots | 53,54,55 |
| Sugar | 1.298 Mt (2025/26) | About 96% | 56 |
Cassava-starch glucose costs about USD 511 to 560 per t at April 2026 prices (our estimate from starch at USD 520 to 540 FOB 57, 1.08 t of glucose per t of starch, plus USD 30 to 60 for hydrolysis) . The nitrogen need (0.37 t of urea per t of protein) does not change with the carbon source. The question for Part 2 is how much carbon could come from residues, side streams and one-carbon feedstocks without cutting food or starch exports.
Z.10 Rice straw
Rơm rạ (rice straw and stubble).
| Stream | 2025 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Basis and evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National straw, Mt air-dry | 51.8 | 47.6 to 51.2 | 44.0 to 50.0 | 41.6 to 48.8 | Paddy 43.5 Mt 58 x 1.19 59; later paddy is our path from the rice-land cut 60 and the 35 Mt floor 61. (2025); (later) |
| Mekong Delta | Over 24 Mt; about 30% collected, 70% burned or buried | 62 | |||
| 1 million ha low-emission rice programme | About 14 Mt (two crops) | 100% to be collected | 62,63 (official target) |
- Straw yield is about 4.72 t per ha, at 12.4% moisture when baled 64 ; straw is about 38% cellulose, 25% hemicellulose and 12% lignin, with high ash 65 .
- About half the national straw is surplus to current uses, 55% of it in the Mekong Delta; former Kien Giang alone could run 245 MW of straw power (2019 basis) 59 .
- The national figure is robust to about 20%: straw-to-grain ratios run 0.7 to 1.4 in Thailand 66, and Mekong data imply 1.14 67 .
Straw needed for the S-ALT sugar route at 0.31 to 0.44 t SE per t of air-dry straw (the low end for organisms that cannot use xylose; our calculation, ngf_calc.py)
| Year | Straw, Mt | Share of national straw | Share of the programme's 14 Mt | Plants of Panipat's size (0.2 Mt a year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2040 | 1.9 to 2.8 | 3.9 to 6.3% | 14 to 20% | 10 to 14 |
| 2050 | 3.0 to 4.3 | 6.1 to 10.3% | 21 to 31% | 15 to 21 |
All national straw could in theory give 12.8 to 21.5 Mt SE in 2050, 10 to 16 times the need. Tonnage is not the constraint.
Competing uses
| Use | Evidence | Pressure to 2050 |
|---|---|---|
| Mushrooms | USD 50 to 100 net per t of straw 65; dry-season straw mostly collected for mushrooms, fodder and mulch 64 | Sets a floor of about USD 25 to 50 per t delivered (our assumption) |
| Soil return | Incorporation raises paddy emissions 1.5 to 2 times against removal 65 | The low-emission programme favours removal |
| Biomass power | 4.8 to 7.0 GW of biomass planned for 2050 68 ; at 8.2 Mt of straw per GW a year this would take 39 to 58 Mt if all straw-fired (our calculation) | The largest competitor if tariffs favour straw |
| Second-generation ethanol | E15 and E20 discussed, residues named as a future feedstock, enzyme costs high 69; 10.9 billion litres of potential (2017 study) 70 | Competes for straw and plants |
| Burning or burying | About 70% of Mekong straw 62 | Shrinking by policy: the "free" tranche |
Costs. Mechanised collection costs USD 12 to 18 per t 64 ; at USD 25 to 50 per t delivered, straw adds USD 57 to 162 per t SE for the feedstock alone (our calculation) . Technology in brief: mature-plant models give USD 342 to 467 per t of cellulosic sugar, but first-of-a-kind plants cost USD 2,100 to 2,400 per t of annual capacity, and India's rice-straw plant at Panipat reached 62% of design only in December 2025, after its first problem, buying straw from farmers who preferred to burn it 71,72,73,74,75 . Details: V. Frontier technology.
Z.11 Cassava pulp, liquid side streams, food waste and manure biogas
Technical sugar-equivalent potential if the whole stream were used in 2050 (our calculation, ngf_calc.py) :
| Stream | Volume, 2025 | SE per t | Technical SE, 2050, Mt | Constraint | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassava pulp (bã sắn), starch fraction | 0.48 to 0.98 Mt of starch | 0.97 | 0.47 to 0.96 | Already sold as feed; swings with Chinese starch demand | 76,77,78 |
| Cassava stems not replanted | 0.86 to 1.29 Mt dry matter | 0.15 to 0.29 | 0.12 to 0.37 | Dispersed upland collection | 79,80,81 |
| Molasses | 0.55 to 0.72 Mt | 0.50 | 0.29 to 0.38 | Already used for MSG, yeast, alcohol | 82,83 |
| Starch wastewater | 22 to 32 million m3; 0.23 to 0.65 Mt of COD | 0.66 per t of COD | 0.15 to 0.43 | Dilute; best as process water or biogas | 84,85,86 |
| Ethanol stillage | 0.23 Mt of ethanol (0.60 Mt in 2050, our path) | 0.10 to 0.15 per t of ethanol | 0.06 to 0.09 | Needs co-location | 54,69 |
| Tofu, soy-milk and brewery wastewater | 0.07 to 0.13 Mt SE | 0.07 to 0.13 | Only large plants practical | 87,88,89 | |
| Household food waste | 7.7 Mt wet (76 kg per person) | 0.08 to 0.15 | 0.67 to 1.25 | Needs source separation; rules (Z.12) | 90 |
| Pig-manure methane, capturable | 0.13 Mt (0.29 Mt in 2050) | 2.35 | 0.69 | Competes with farm energy | 91,92 |
Bagasse (0.71 to 1.01 Mt SE), maize stover (1.40 to 2.00) and coffee pulp (0.07 to 0.14) are lignocellulosic and mostly committed to boilers, fodder or fertiliser (feedstock_futures.csv, FFU-003, FFU-006, FFU-007).
- Cassava pulp is the only near-term second-generation carbon of scale. Its starch needs only ordinary amylases, and 2024 volumes were about 60% of 2025's. Diverting pulp removes a feed carbohydrate, so the net gain is the protein made (Feedstock data sheets, C3) .
- Liquid side streams are small but free and at a factory gate. Enifer's revival of the PEKILO mycoprotein process is the model to watch: a 3,000 t a year plant under construction in Finland and a 500 t pilot on corn-ethanol thin stillage in Brazil, both reported in 2025 93 (company claims).
- Pig-manure methane (our estimate): 31.4 M pigs 91 x 0.3 kg of volatile solids per head a day x 0.29 m3 of methane per kg x 60% gives about 0.43 Mt a year, of which the large-farm share (30% in 2025, 65% by 2050, our assumption) is capturable . We found no national biogas figure.
- One-carbon feedstocks in brief. Methanol-fed yeast protein is at pilot scale in China, at about 4.6 t of methanol per t of protein 94 . The whole 2050 S-ALT need via e-methanol would take about 1.5 Mt of methanol, 0.29 Mt of green hydrogen (1.5 to 2.9% of the 2050 hydrogen target 95), 2.1 Mt of CO2 and about 16 TWh (our calculation) . The limit is cost, not volume (V. Frontier technology).
Z.12 Rules as a ceiling
- EU feed law is precise. Regulation 767/2009, Annex III, bans from feed "All waste obtained from the various phases of the treatment of the urban, domestic and industrial waste water", "irrespective of any further processing of that waste", plus household waste and faeces. A footnote exempts process water in independent conduits that carries feed or food material and is free of cleaning agents 96 .
- Vietnamese rules are permissive but vague. We found no legal ban on food waste or wastewater-derived substrates for feed; the veterinary authority only advises cooking kitchen waste at 100 °C for 20 to 30 minutes before feeding pigs 97 . The feed listing of microbial biomass is the real gate (Rules).
How each stream fares under EU-style rules (our reading of the Annex)
| Stream | Position | Perception risk for export chains |
|---|---|---|
| Cassava pulp, molasses, stillage, straw and bagasse hydrolysates | By-products; not in the banned categories | Low |
| Starch, tofu and brewery process water, before treatment | Defensible under the process-water exemption | Low to medium |
| Effluent from a treatment lagoon or plant | Banned, whatever the later processing | High |
| Household food waste | Banned | High |
| Pig-manure biogas | Not addressed directly: the gas is not faeces, but it comes from them | High |
| e-methanol from CO2 and hydrogen | Not waste-derived | Low |
Exporters that follow EU-style rules would reject protein grown on wastewater-treatment streams, food waste or manure-derived gas, whatever Vietnamese law allows, so from 2026 onwards this is a ceiling on such carbon, and Cases A and B send only small shares of these streams to protein . A Vietnamese rule that follows the EU line between process water and treatment waste would lift the uncertainty (Robust moves, RM-06).
Z.13 Cases A, B and C for 2040 and 2050
Case rules: share of each stream sent to fermentation in 2050, with 2040 in brackets where different (our assumptions, ngf_calc.py). No case cuts food or starch exports; released land is excluded. All .
| Stream | A. No 2G breakthrough | B. 2G works at modest scale | C. 2G and one-carbon at scale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rice straw, Mt a year | 0 | 1.0 (0.3) | 5.0 (2.0) |
| Cassava pulp starch | 10% | 25% | 50% |
| Ethanol stillage | 20% | 50% | 80% |
| Starch wastewater; food-industry wastewater | 5%; 5% | 10%; 20% | 30%; 40% |
| Bagasse; maize stover | 0 | 3% (2%); 3% (2%) | 15% (10%); 10% (5%) |
| Cassava stems; coffee pulp; molasses | 0 | 10%; 5%; 5% | 25%; 20%; 10% |
| Household food waste; pig-manure methane | 0 | 2%; 5% (2%) | 10%; 20% (10%) |
| e-methanol, Mt SE | 0 | 0.10 (0.01) | 0.50 (0.10) |
Results: Mt SE a year and share of the S-ALT sugar-route need (our calculation, ngf_calc.py)
| Year (need, Mt) | Case A | Case B | Case C | Lignocellulosic (B; C) | One-carbon (B; C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 (0.24) | 0.03 to 0.06 (13 to 27%) | 0.08 to 0.16 (35 to 69%) | 0.20 to 0.38 (85 to 161%) | 0.01; 0.04 to 0.05 | 0; 0 |
| 2040 (0.85) | 0.07 to 0.14 (8 to 16%) | 0.37 to 0.65 (44 to 76%) | 1.40 to 2.24 (165 to 263%) | 0.13 to 0.19; 0.76 to 1.08 | 0.02; 0.16 |
| 2050 (1.32) | 0.07 to 0.14 (5 to 11%) | 0.73 to 1.11 (55 to 84%) | 2.92 to 4.20 (222 to 319%) | 0.37 to 0.53; 1.79 to 2.55 | 0.13; 0.64 |
| Protein this could grow in 2050, kt | 18 to 35 | 183 to 278 | 730 to 1,050 |
Case B in 2050, step by step (Mt SE): straw 1.0 Mt x 0.31 to 0.44 = 0.31 to 0.44; pulp starch 0.48 to 0.98 x 25% x 0.97 = 0.12 to 0.24; e-methanol 0.10; stover 0.04 to 0.06; stillage 0.03 to 0.05; manure methane 0.03; bagasse 0.02 to 0.03; starch wastewater 0.02 to 0.04; the other five streams 0.06 to 0.11. Total 0.73 to 1.11.
Plants and investment at first-of-a-kind costs of USD 2,100 to 3,400 per t of annual sugar capacity, from Panipat and Podari (our calculation)
| Item | Case A | Case B, 2040 / 2050 | Case C, 2040 / 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plants of Panipat's straw size | 0 | About 1.5 / 5 | 10 / 25 |
| Straw sugar, Mt SE | 0 | 0.09 to 0.13 / 0.31 to 0.44 | 0.62 to 0.88 / 1.54 to 2.20 |
| Capital for straw-sugar plants, USD billion | 0 | 0.2 to 0.45 / 0.6 to 1.5 | 1.3 to 3.0 / 3.2 to 7.5 |
Meeting the whole S-ALT need from straw sugar would take USD 1.8 to 2.9 billion by 2040, and USD 2.8 to 4.5 billion and 15 to 21 Panipat-size plants by 2050. We did not cost side-stream plants or an e-methanol industry.
- Case A is today's reality extended: about a tenth of the 2050 need, almost all from cassava pulp. The carbohydrate ceiling stands.
- Case B turns the ceiling into a capital question: five Panipat-size plants (or two of 500 kt of straw) running reliably by 2050, plus side-stream plants at starch factories and ethanol plants. The trigger is an Asian straw plant running reliably above 80% of design (Robust moves, RM-19).
- Case C removes the ceiling but needs about 10% of national straw and an e-methanol industry: an ambitious bet, not a plan.
- No case changes the nitrogen need or makes the carbon low-carbon by default. One Indian bagasse-sugar study gives 1.57 kg CO2e per kg of sugar, above Thai cassava starch at 0.60 to 0.97 kg 98,99 .
- Vietnam has no 2G pilot for straw, bagasse or coffee husk 69,70 . China listed 35 "non-grain bio-based" cases in January 2026, yet BBCA's non-grain lactic acid is 1,000 t within 500,000 t of capacity 100 .
Z.14 Land: released rice land and protein per hectare
The adjusted national land plan (Decision 1177/QD-TTg, June 2026) sets rice land at 3,252.63 kha in 2030 against 3,907.07 kha in 2024, a release of about 654 kha 60 (official plan). Against the 2021 plan, agricultural land falls by 1,120.62 kha and non-agricultural land rises by 1,192.43 kha 101 .
Where it is going. In the 2026 winter-spring season rice area fell 37.3 kha. In the south, 12 kha went to other annual crops, 5.6 kha to perennial crops and 1.9 kha to aquaculture (Can Tho alone 14.8 kha); in the north, conversions went mostly to non-farm uses, such as 800 ha for an airport and 938 ha for industrial zones and transport in Bac Ninh 102 . Under Decree 112/2024, land that switches crops, or combines rice with aquaculture ponds of up to 20% of the plot, still counts as rice land 103 ; so the 654 kha is mainly land leaving agriculture. No plan names a protein crop 60,41 . If all 654 kha grew cassava for fermentation after 2030 it would give 3.3 Mt of glucose a year, an upper bound on first-generation carbon from soils that suit cassava poorly (our calculation) .
Protein per hectare (all 15 rows of land_protein_yields.csv; our calculation unless stated)
| System | kg of protein per ha a year | Basis | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean, Vietnam (1 crop) | 580 | 1.62 t per ha x 36% | 87 |
| Soybean, import origins | 1,140 | 3.16 t per ha x 36% | 104 |
| Imported soybean-meal protein | 1,410 | About 0.71 ha per t (balance model, mass allocation) | |
| Maize grain, Vietnam (1 crop) | 460 | 5.43 t per ha x 8.5% | 58,1 |
| Rice paddy, Mekong (2 crops) | 790 | 6.10 t per crop x 6.5% x 2 | 58 |
| Cassava roots used directly | 250 | 20.5 t per ha x 1.2% | 51 |
| Cassava via microbial fermentation | 1,260 | 5.03 t of glucose per ha / 4.0 | 51,77 |
| Sugarcane via microbial fermentation | 1,410 | 5.38 t of sugar per ha (Gia Lai) | 105 |
| Rice straw via 2G sugar (no extra land) | 730 to 1,040 | 2 crops x 4.72 t x 0.31 to 0.44 / 4.0 | 64,65 |
| Napier grass, typical / intensive | 2,500 / 9,600 | 26 or 71 t of dry matter; ruminants only | 106 |
| Duckweed on pig-manure water | 7,500 | Extrapolated from a 175-day pilot in Flanders | 107 |
| Duckweed, edition 1.0 planning range | 2,500 to 10,500 | 10 to 30 t of dry matter x 25 to 35% | 108,109 |
| Microalgae in closed systems | 22,000 to 44,000 | Potential, not achieved | 110 |
| Power-to-protein on solar land | 13,000 to 22,000 | 450 to 750 m2 of panels per t | 111 |
- Per hectare, fermentation beats Vietnamese soybean: cassava and cane via microbes give about twice Vietnam's soybean protein and about the same as imported soybean meal, so cassava-based microbial protein moves land use rather than saving it .
- Straw adds protein with no extra land, but only if cellulosic sugar becomes bankable.
- On wet released land, the land-efficient options are aquatic and forage systems, not grain legumes. Duckweed (bèo) is already on the livestock feed list (Rules); we found no tropical field data for its yield .
Z.15 Gaps, disagreements and open questions
Gaps (these feed Q. Open questions)
| Gap | Why it matters | Cheapest way to close it |
|---|---|---|
| Direct trash-fish use by species and province | Sizes the replacement market (0.4 to 1.6 Mt) | RIA3 (Nha Trang) and MAE surveys; the FAO low-value-fish report 112 |
| Marine finfish output and marine feed volume, 2025 | 18 kt modelled against 80 to 100 kt reported | MAE annual review; mill volumes |
| Lobster output | USD 845 M of exports against a 3 to 5 kt plan | Customs HS 0306.21 volumes; cage counts |
| Vietnam aquaculture projections beyond 2035 | None published | WorldFish Vietnam team; AsiaFish model runs 49 |
| EPA plus DHA requirements of Vietnamese species | Drives the 10 to 40 kt range | Review for whiteleg shrimp, cobia, pompano and grouper |
| Grade mix and price of Vietnamese fishmeal | Whether by-product meal can serve shrimp and marine feeds | Customs HS 2301.20 by grade |
| GE event count (60 against 52 by crop); Decree 43/2026 full text | Read only through secondary summaries | Re-read USDA GAIN VM2025-0045 37; read the decree |
| Mekong straw prices and shares by use | Sets the delivered straw cost | Sustainable Rice Straw Management (open access) 65; provincial agriculture departments |
| Pretreatment of high-silica Mekong straw | Panipat's problems were silica and moisture | Bench study at a Vietnamese university |
| National biogas and starch wastewater COD | Our lines are estimates; COD varies seven-fold | Nguyen and others 2024 113; a survey of starch factories in Tay Ninh |
| Vietnamese rule on waste-derived feed substrates | Decides the ceiling in Z.12 | One question to MAE's livestock department |
| Heat and disease losses in aquaculture | Climate effect on feed volume | Not quantified by us |
Disagreements (for R. Disagreements)
| Topic | Source A | Source B | Position taken |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capture in 2030 | 2.8 Mt target 3 | 3.50 Mt in OECD-FAO 8 | Both shown; OECD-FAO does not model the fleet cut |
| Aquaculture in 2030 | 7.0 Mt target | 6.12 Mt (OECD-FAO); 6.58 Mt (S-BASE) | AQ-HIGH follows the target; AQ-BASE follows S-BASE |
| Soybean area and yield | Under 20 kha; 1.62 t per ha 39 | 39 kha; 1.28 t per ha 8 | Area 20 to 39 kha; yield unresolved |
| Vietnamese fishmeal output | 325 kt (OECD-FAO, 2025) | About 500 kt a year, 2005 to 2016 (secondary) 18 | OECD-FAO used; the 500 kt may include fish powder |
| Marine finfish FCR on trash fish | "2 to 2.5" 21 | Grouper 5.9 wet 17 | 5 to 8 wet used |
| National rice straw | 54 Mt, ratio 1.19 59 | 97 Mt, ratio 2.2 114 | 1.19 used |
| Cellulosic sugar cost | USD 342 to 467 per t 71,72 | USD 1,320 per t 98 | Both reported |
Data files
aquaculture_projections.csv(44 rows): 2025 output by species, official targets, published projections, and our paths, aquafeed, trash-fish and extra-pellet estimates.marine_ingredients_2050.csv(39 rows): world and Vietnamese fishmeal and fish oil to 2035 and 2050, by-product shares, pangasius supply, EPA plus DHA needs and credible alternative shares.protein_crops_vn.csv(29 rows): soybean and maize data, GE approvals, Decree 43/2026, soybean what-ifs, released rice land, duckweed.feedstock_futures.csv(17 rows): each residue, side stream and one-carbon route with volumes to 2050, sugar-equivalent yield, cost, TRL, competing uses and rules.land_protein_yields.csv(15 rows): protein per hectare by crop or system.balance_outputs.csv(1,150 rows): here, the S-ALT glucose, cassava, sugar and urea rows and S-BASE aquaculture and aquafeed.climate_impacts_2050.csv(34 rows): here, rows CI-11, CI-12, CI-24, CI-25 and CI-30.- Scripts and notes:
working-papers/wave3/aquaculture_futures/andworking-papers/wave3/next_gen_feedstocks/.
Related: Protein balance 2050, Frontier technology, V. Frontier technology, W. Balance model, Feed and aquafeed market, Feedstock data sheets, Vision 2050, Robust moves, X. Drivers and signals, Q. Open questions, R. Disagreements.
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- FS-14 VietnamPlus. Vietnam third-largest cassava exporter, supply chain still faces hurdles. 29 January 2026
- GT-10 MOIT. Thông tư 50/2025/TT-BCT quy định lộ trình áp dụng tỷ lệ phối trộn nhiên liệu sinh học với nhiên liệu truyền thống tại Việt Nam. 7 Nov 2025
- FS-09 Báo Chính phủ. Sản xuất ethanol cho xăng E10: Nhà máy chuyển đổi nguyên liệu, hướng tới 125% công suất. 4 August 2026
- IND-20 CafeF. Hoi sinh loat nha may ethanol nghin ty. 10 July 2026
- FS-31 Doanh nghiệp Hội nhập. Ngành mía đường sản xuất gần 1,3 triệu tấn, áp lực tiêu thụ vẫn đè nặng. 16 July 2026
- FS-11 Nông nghiệp và Môi trường. Nguồn cung giảm mạnh, giá sắn gần gấp đôi cùng kỳ 2025. 9 April 2026
- FS-25 National Statistics Office (NSO). Báo cáo tình hình kinh tế - xã hội quý IV và năm 2025. January 2026
- NGF-01 Cuong, T.T., Le, H.A., Khai, N.M. and others. Renewable energy from biomass surplus resource: potential of power generation from rice straw in Vietnam. 2021
- NTS-15 Prime Minister. Quyết định 1177/QĐ-TTg điều chỉnh Quy hoạch sử dụng đất quốc gia 2021 to 2030, tầm nhìn 2050. 30 Jun 2026
- NTS-04 Party Central Committee. Nghị quyết 19-NQ/TW về nông nghiệp, nông dân, nông thôn đến năm 2030, tầm nhìn đến năm 2045. 16 Jun 2022
- NGF-04 Kim Anh. Làm sao tiêu thụ hết 14 triệu tấn rơm rạ từ một triệu hecta. 8 Apr 2025
- NTS-32 Prime Minister. Quyết định 1490/QĐ-TTg, Đề án phát triển bền vững một triệu héc-ta chuyên canh lúa chất lượng cao và phát thải thấp vùng ĐBSCL đến năm 2030. 27 Nov 2023
- NGF-02 Hung, N.V., Nguyen, C.D., Tran, T.V. and others. Energy efficiency, greenhouse gas emissions, and cost of rice straw collection in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam. 2016
- NGF-05 Hung, N.V., Maguyon-Detras, M.C., Migo-Sumagang, M.V. and others. Rice Straw Overview: Availability, Properties, and Management Practices. 2020
- NGF-15 Jusakulvijit, P., Bezama, A., Thran, D.. The Availability and Assessment of Potential Agricultural Residues for the Regional Development of Second-Generation Bioethanol in Thailand. 2021
- NGF-03 Arai, H., Hosen, Y., Pham Hong, V.N. and others. Greenhouse gas emissions from rice straw burning and straw-mushroom cultivation in a triple rice cropping system in the Mekong Delta. 2015
- NTS-26 Prime Minister. Quyết định 768/QĐ-TTg, Điều chỉnh Quy hoạch phát triển điện lực quốc gia 2021 to 2030, tầm nhìn 2050. 15 Apr 2025
- NGF-31 Nông nghiệp và Môi trường. Nhiên liệu xanh đưa nông nghiệp vào chuỗi giá trị mới. 30 Jun 2026
- NGF-32 Tạp chí Công Thương. Bài toán nguyên liệu cho sản xuất cồn ethanol. 29 Mar 2017
- NGF-06 Chen, X., Shekiro, J., Pschorn, T. and others. Techno-economic analysis of the deacetylation and disk refining process. 2015
- NGF-07 Ou, L., Dou, C., Yu, J.H. and others. Techno-economic analysis of sugar production from lignocellulosic biomass with utilization of hemicellulose and lignin for high-value co-products. 2021
- NGF-10 Informist Media. Govt's 2G ethanol plans in limbo as sole IOC Panipat plant lies inactive. 27 Nov 2024
- NGF-11 ChiniMandi. India's first 2G ethanol plant at Panipat costs INR 984 crore, government tells Lok Sabha. 2026
- NGF-33 C&EN. Clariant is latest firm to pull out of cellulosic ethanol. December 2023
- FS-03 Nông nghiệp và Môi trường. Bã sắn cứu cánh ngành chế biến tinh bột sắn. 17 December 2024
- FS-05 Phommakod, S., Lueangwattanapong, K., Chaiprasert, P., & Songkasiri, W. Valorization of biomaterial side streams: Kinetics of cassava pulp and its components degradation by Clostridium manihotivorum CT4T. 2026
- FS-06 Lerdlattaporn, R., Phalakornkule, C., Trakulvichean, S., & Songkasiri, W. Implementing circular economy concept by converting cassava pulp and wastewater to biogas for sustainable production in starch industry. 2021
- NGF-25 Zhu, W., Lestander, T.A., Orberg, H. and others. Cassava stems: a new resource to increase food and fuel production. 2015
- NGF-26 Wei, M., Zhu, W., Xie, H., Lestander, T.A., Xiong, S.. Cassava stem wastes as potential feedstock for fuel ethanol production: a basic parameter study. 2015
- NGF-27 Kaewwinud, N., Khokhajaikiat, P., Boonma, A.. Effect of moisture and region of cut on cassava stalk properties in biomass applications. 2017
- FS-37 Sharma, A., Prakash, B., & Sachan, A. Inter- and intra-sectoral linkages and priorities for transforming sugar sector of India. 2015
- IND-22 Sugarcane Research Institute. Xang E10 tao cu hich cho ethanol, Duong Quang Ngai (QNS) don co hoi lon. 16 July 2026
- NGF-24 Lerdlattaporn, R., Phalakornkule, C., Trakulvichean, S. and others. Implementing Circular Economy Concept by Converting Cassava Pulp and Wastewater to Biogas for Sustainable Production in Starch Industry. 2020
- NGF-29 Prayitno, P., Rulianah, S.. Production of biogas using AnF2B reactor from cassava starch wastewater with consortium bacteria as biocatalyst. 2022
- FS-04 Ministry of Industry and Trade. Tận dụng phế thải công nghiệp chế biến tinh bột sắn tạo sản phẩm giá trị gia tăng cao. 24 March 2021
- FS-24 USDA FAS. Vietnam: Oilseeds and Products Annual. 15 April 2026
- FS-38 Pejin, J., Radosavljević, M., Grujić, O., et al. Possible application of brewer's spent grain in biotechnology. 2013
- FS-44 Szulc, J., Błaszak, B., Wenda-Piesik, A., et al. Zero waste technology of soybeans processing. 2023
- NGF-28 Ngan, D.T.M., Ghi, T.N., Tien, H.V.. Drivers of Food Waste Habits at Household Level in Vietnam. 2024
- MAC-12 VnEconomy. Chan nuoi Viet Nam 2025: Tang truong 4,5%, nguon cung Tet 2026 doi dao. 2025
- FTG-25 Cartin-Caballero, C., Collet, C., Gapes, D.J., et al.. Simultaneous co-cultivation of the thermoacidophilic methanotroph, Methylacidiphilum sp. RTK17.1, and the microalga, Galdieria sp. RTK37.1, for single cell protein production. 2025
- NGF-17 AgFunderNews. Enifer to make mycoprotein in Brazil from corn ethanol side streams. 3 Jun 2025
- NGF-13 Meng, J., Liu, S., Gao, L., Hong, K., Liu, S., Wu, X.. Economical production of Pichia pastoris single cell protein from methanol at industrial pilot scale. 2023
- FTG-16 Prime Minister. Quyết định 165/QĐ-TTg năm 2024 phê duyệt Chiến lược phát triển năng lượng hydrogen của Việt Nam đến năm 2030, tầm nhìn đến năm 2050. 7 Feb 2024
- NGF-14 European Union. Regulation (EC) No 767/2009 on the placing on the market and use of feed, consolidated text of 26 Dec 2018, Annex III Chapter 1 and footnote 9. 26 Dec 2018
- NGF-30 Ninh Binh rural development coordination office. Sử dụng thức ăn thừa để chăn nuôi lợn, nguy cơ lây lan dịch bệnh cao. 31 May 2019
- NGF-08 Baral, P., Munagala, M., Shastri, Y., Kumar, V., Agrawal, D.. Cost reduction approaches for fermentable sugar production from sugarcane bagasse and its impact on techno-economics and the environment. 2021
- ECF-25 Lansche J., Awiszus S., Latif S., Müller J.. Potential of biogas production from processing residues to reduce environmental impacts from cassava starch and crisp production: a case study from Malaysia. 2020
- NGF-35 van der Kley, D.. China publishes model project list for Non-Grain Bio-based Materials Industry. January 2026
- NGF-20 Prime Minister. Decision 1177/QD-TTg (30 Jun 2026) adjusting the national land use plan, re-read for the changes in agricultural and non-agricultural land against Resolution 39/2021. 30 Jun 2026
- NGF-18 National Statistics Office. Chuyển đổi cơ cấu cây trồng trên đất lúa vụ đông xuân năm 2026: những kết quả tích cực. 9 Apr 2026
- NGF-19 Báo Chính phủ. Quy định mới về chuyển đổi cơ cấu cây trồng, vật nuôi trên đất trồng lúa (Decree 112/2024/ND-CP). 12 Sep 2024
- QNT-01 OECD and FAO. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, data via the OECD SDMX API, dataflow OECD.TAD.ATM DSD_AGR@DF_OUTLOOK_2026_2035 version 1.1. June 2026
- FS-34 TTWTO VCCI. Ngành mía đường Việt Nam bứt phá, dẫn đầu ASEAN về năng suất. 15 November 2024
- NGF-21 Islam, M.R., Garcia, S.C., Sarker, N.R., Islam, M.A., Clark, C.E.F.. Napier grass (Pennisetum purpureum Schum) management strategies for dairy and meat production in the tropics and subtropics: yield and nutritive value. 2023
- NGF-22 Devlamynck, R., Fernandes de Souza, M., Michels, E. and others. Agronomic and Environmental Performance of Lemna minor Cultivated on Agricultural Wastewater Streams: A Practical Approach. 2021
- SCI-36 Salian A et al. Lemnaceae as a poultry feed supplement: a review. 2026
- SCI-37 Pagliuso D et al. Duckweeds as Promising Food Feedstocks Globally. 2022
- FTG-30 Janssen, M., Wijffels, R.H., Barbosa, M.J.. Microalgae based production of single-cell protein. 2022
- QNT-09 Leger, D., Matassa, S., Noor, E., Shepon, A., Milo, R. and Bar-Even, A.. Photovoltaic-driven microbial protein production can use land and sunlight more efficiently than conventional crops. 2021
- AQF-33 Hasan, M.R.. Transition from low-value fish to compound feeds in marine cage farming in Asia. 2012
- NGF-37 Nguyen, T.H., Doan, Q.V., Khan, A. and others. The potential of agricultural and livestock wastes as a source of biogas in Vietnam: energetic, economic and environmental evaluation. 2024
- NGF-09 Benova, D., Mares, K., Hutla, P. and others. Energy Potential of Agri Residual Biomass in Southeast Asia with the Focus on Vietnam. 2021