Appendix YNew in edition 1.1
Y. Targets, benchmarks and places: the policy and spatial frame to 2050
The evidence behind chapters 19 and 20: every official Vietnamese target relevant to protein supply from 2025 to 2050 and what the targets leave out, how protein and bioeconomy strategies abroad have fared, the map layers and six candidate hubs for a protein bioeconomy, and the full registers of the 22 normative vision milestones and the 21 robust moves.
On this page
What this appendix contains. The evidence behind Vision 2050 and Robust moves: a register of Vietnam's official targets relevant to protein supply by horizon, what those targets leave out, benchmarks from protein and bioeconomy strategies abroad, the map layers and six candidate hubs for a protein bioeconomy, and the full registers of the 22 vision milestones and the 21 robust moves.
How to use it. Policy makers can start with Y.1 and Y.2 (what is planned, what is missing, and the 2026 to 2030 windows to add targets). Investors and founders can start with Y.5 (places and timing). Y.6 and Y.7 are the full tables behind chapters 19 and 20.
Y.1 Vietnam's official targets by horizon
national_targets_2050.csv holds 98 official targets, directions and tasks: 74 rows touch 2030, 6 touch 2035, 18 touch 2045 and 17 touch 2050 (our count). The tables give every quantified target relevant to protein supply, and the qualitative direction where that is the only official word.
Y.1.1 2025: the first checkpoint
| Domain | Instrument | Target for 2025 | Outcome so far | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feed | Decision 1625 (15 Dec 2023), feed-industry scheme | Industrial livestock feed 24 to 25 Mt | About 21.5 Mt in 2024: probably missed | 2 |
| Feed additives | Decision 1625 | Domestic additives 20 to 25% of demand | We found no statistic | 2 |
| Meat | Decision 1520 (6 Oct 2020), livestock strategy | 5.0 to 5.5 Mt carcass weight | Our 2025 estimate, 5.85 to 6.50 Mt (macro_indicators.csv, MI-009), is above it | 3 |
| Marine aquaculture | Decision 1664 (4 Oct 2021) | 850 kt on 280,000 ha | We found no 2025 figure | 4 |
| Agri-biotech firms | Decision 429 (2021) | Firms +20% | Scheme replaced by Decision 1466 | 5,6 |
Y.1.2 2030: where the output targets stop
| Domain | Instrument | Target for 2030 | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Livestock | Decision 1520 | Meat 6.0 to 6.5 Mt carcass; 58 to 62 kg per person. Names side streams to use as feed: spent grain, brewer's yeast, pineapple and cassava pulp, slaughter by-products, shrimp heads and shells, pangasius bone and fat | 7,3,8 |
| Feed | Decisions 1520 and 1625 | Industrial thức ăn chăn nuôi (livestock feed) 30 to 32 Mt; the 1625 text points to livestock feed only. Our model gives 26.4 Mt of livestock and poultry feed in 2030, so the target looks out of reach (Protein balance 2050) | 2,3 |
| Feed additives | Decision 1625 | Domestic additives 30 to 35% of demand. Budget VND 1,310 billion (about USD 50 million) for 2023 to 2030, about VND 700 billion for by-product processing | 2 |
| Feed self-reliance | Resolution 19-NQ/TW (2022, continued in 2025 and 2026); Decision 150 (2022) | "Raise self-reliance in feed production"; self-reliance in seed, feed and veterinary drugs. No ratio | 9,10,11 |
| Aquaculture | Decision 339 (11 Mar 2021), fisheries strategy | Aquaculture 7.0 Mt; fisheries 9.8 Mt; seafood exports USD 14 to 16 billion. Industrial feed to replace cá tạp (trash fish), with no volume or date | 12 |
| Marine aquaculture | Decision 1664 | 1.45 Mt on 300,000 ha: marine fish 200 kt (120 kt offshore), lobster 5 kt, other crustaceans 95 kt; feed-production zones next to farms | 4 |
| Capture | Decision 339 | 2.8 Mt, against 3.83 Mt in 2025 (a fall of about a quarter) | 12 |
| Capture fleet | Decision 389 (9 May 2024), fisheries resources plan, vision 2050 | At most about 83,600 vessels; trawlers 10% (about 8,360), about 59% fewer than in 2016 (our calculation) | 13,14 |
| Land | Decision 1177 (30 Jun 2026), adjusted land-use plan | Rice land 3,252.63 thousand ha, against 3,907.07 in 2024: about 654 thousand ha (17%) released (our calculation); agricultural land 26,611.42 thousand ha | 15 |
| Crops | Resolution 19; Decision 1748 (30 Dec 2023), crop strategy | At least 35 Mt of paddy a year; cassava area "stable". No maize, soybean or cassava number | 9,16 |
| Rice residues | Decision 1490 (27 Nov 2023) | 1 million ha of low-emission rice; 100% of straw collected and reused (our rough estimate: 7 to 15 Mt a year) | 17 |
| Mekong; organic waste | Decisions 287 (2022) and 687 (2022) | Mekong priorities in the order aquatic products, fruit, rice; 70% of rural organic waste recycled | 18,19 |
| Biotechnology | Resolution 36-NQ/TW (30 Jan 2023) | Biotech industry 7% of GDP; replace at least 50% of imported biotech products; top 10 in Asia | 20,21 |
| Biotechnology | Decision 1466 (31 Jul 2026), replaces Decision 429 | Replace at least 50% of imported biotech products; 7% of biotech industry value added; 5 key and 5 specialised labs; 500 high-level staff; 2,000 technician trainings. Names công nghệ enzym, protein, vi sinh (enzyme, protein and microbial technology) for nutrient-use efficiency in livestock and aquaculture | 6 |
| Biotechnology | Decision 1355/QD-BCT (5 Jun 2026), MOIT | Scheme products replace at least 20% of imports; 30 to 50% commercialised; names enzymes, fermentation, probiotics and feed additives | 22,23 |
| Biotech delivery | Directive 13/CT-TTg (21 Apr 2026) | MOST special mechanisms (May 2026); MAE biotechnology clusters (December 2026) | 24,25 |
| Strategic technology | Decision 808 (6 May 2026) | 20 missions; the agricultural ones are gene-edited breeds and veterinary vaccines; none on fermentation | 26 |
| Science | Resolution 57-NQ/TW (22 Dec 2024); Decision 604 (2026) | R&D 2% of GDP; at least 3% of the state budget to science; 12 researchers per 10,000 people; sandboxes | 27,28 |
| AI | Decision 1671 (28 Aug 2026), AI strategy | At least 10,000 advanced AI experts; AI in breeding, livestock and aquaculture; fermentation not named | 29 |
| Skills | Decision 1002 (24 May 2025), high-tech workforce | 5,000 biotechnology and biology graduates a year | 30 |
| Firms and capital | Resolution 68-NQ/TW (4 May 2025); Resolution 86/NQ-CP (2026) | 2 million firms; private sector 55 to 58% of GDP; 10,000 innovative start-ups; venture market USD 1.5 billion | 31,32 |
| Power | Decision 768 (15 Apr 2025), revised power plan | Non-hydro renewables 28 to 36% of generation; biomass power 1.5 to 2.7 GW | 33,34 |
| Energy | Resolution 70-NQ/TW (20 Aug 2025) | Renewables 25 to 30% of primary energy; hydrogen and ammonia pilots | 35 |
| Hydrogen | Decision 165 (7 Feb 2024) | Clean hydrogen 100 to 500 kt a year | 36,37 |
| Emissions | Decision 896 (26 Jul 2022), climate strategy | Agriculture at most 64 MtCO2e, 39% below 2020 (our calculation); methane at least 30% below 2020. Livestock levers: rations, manure, biogas | 38,39,40 |
| Methane | Decision 942 (5 Aug 2022) | Methane caps: all sectors 77.9, agriculture 45.9, rice 30.7, livestock 15.2 MtCO2e | 41 |
| Emissions | Decisions 150, 300; Decision 1658 (1 Oct 2021), green growth | Agricultural and food-system emissions 10% below 2020; GHG intensity of GDP at least 15% below 2014 | 11,42,43 |
| Water | Decision 1622 (27 Dec 2022); Decision 1658 | Water demand about 122.5 billion m3; groundwater restricted; water-saving irrigation on at least 30% of irrigated upland crops | 44,43 |
| Income | Resolution 252/2025/QH15 (10 Dec 2025); Resolution 19 | GDP growth 10% a year or more; GDP per person about USD 8,500; rural income 2.5 to 3 times 2020 | 45,9 |
| Nutrition | Decision 02 (2022); Resolution 72-NQ/TW (2025); Decision 300 | Stunting below 15%; salt below 7 g a day; life expectancy 75.5 years. No protein target | 46,47,42 |
The green growth strategy is Decision 1658; Decision 882 (2022) is its action plan, whose agriculture indicators we did not read.
Y.1.3 2035: the first biotech numbers beyond 2030
| Domain | Instrument | Target for 2035 | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biotechnology | Decision 1466 | Replace at least 60% of imports with plan products; 15% of biotech industry value added | 6 |
| Power and hydrogen | Decision 768 | Offshore wind for "new energy" (hydrogen, ammonia) about 15 GW | 33,34 |
| Emissions | Decision 896; NDC 3.0 | National peak in 2035. NDC 3.0 was not approved or submitted on 24 September 2026; we found no 2035 agriculture cap | 38,48,49 |
| Skills | Decision 1002 | 8,000 biotechnology and biology graduates a year in 2030 to 2035 | 30 |
| By-products | Decision 222 (2025), circular economy to 2035 | Crop, livestock and aquaculture by-products named as priority circular models; no number | 50 |
Y.1.4 2045: visions, mostly qualitative
| Domain | Instrument | Target or vision for 2045 | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biotechnology | Resolution 36; Decision 1355/QD-BCT | Biotech 10 to 15% of GDP (no statistical definition); replace 30 to 50% of comparable imports (MOIT) | 20,22 |
| Livestock | Decision 1520 | Over 70% of main livestock products processed industrially; 100% of marketed meat from industrial slaughterhouses; no meat or feed volume | 7 |
| Fisheries | Decisions 339 and 1664 | Top three seafood producer and exporter; marine aquaculture over 25% of fisheries output; no feed number | 12,4 |
| Science, firms, income | Resolutions 57, 68, 86, 109/NQ-CP and 252 | Top 30 for innovation; private sector over 60% of GDP; venture market USD 10 billion; a developed, high-income country | 27,31,32,51,45 |
| Health; energy prices | Resolutions 72 and 70 | Life expectancy above 80 years; market-set energy prices without cross-subsidy | 47,35 |
Y.1.5 2050: inputs planned, outputs not
| Domain | Instrument | Target for 2050 | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power | Decision 768 | Non-hydro renewables 74 to 75% of generation; offshore wind for new energy about 240 GW; biomass power 4.8 to 7.0 GW | 33,34,52 |
| Hydrogen | Decision 165 | Clean hydrogen 10 to 20 Mt a year; no food or feed use named | 36,37 |
| Emissions | Decision 896 | Net zero; agriculture at most 56 MtCO2e, 46% below 2020; methane a further 40% lower (base year read as 2030) | 38,39 |
| Green growth; water | Decisions 1658 and 1622 | GHG intensity at least 30% below 2014; water-saving irrigation at least 60%; water demand about 131.7 billion m3 | 43,44 |
| Income | Resolution 252 | GDP per person about USD 38,000 (current prices): about 8.5% a year in current dollars from about USD 5,000 in 2025 (our arithmetic; the base is Low confidence) | 45 |
| Agriculture, crops, capture | Decisions 150, 1748, 389, 287 | Qualitative only: "a leading agricultural nation", "a modern crop sector", "sustainable" fisheries | 11,16,13,18 |
Y.1.6 Coverage map: where official numbers exist
Cells name instruments with a numeric target; "qual." means a qualitative vision only; "none" means we found nothing 1 .
| Domain | 2030 | 2035 | 2045 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meat, feed, livestock | 1520; 1625 | none | 1520 qual. | none |
| Aquaculture, capture, aquafeed | 339; 1664; 389 | none | 339 qual.; 1664 | 389 qual. |
| Crops and feed crops | 1177; 1748; Res 19 | none | Res 19 qual. | 1748 qual.; no maize, soybean or cassava number |
| Biotechnology | Res 36; 1466; 1355 | 1466 | Res 36; 1355 | none |
| Science and skills | Res 57; 604; 86; 1002; 1671 | 1002 | Res 57; 86 | none |
| Nutrition | 02; 300; Res 72 | none | Res 72 | none |
| Emissions | 896; 942; 1658 | 896 (peak) | none | 896; 1658 |
| Energy and hydrogen | 768; 165; Res 70 | 768 | Res 70 qual. | 768; 165 |
| Land, water, macro | 1177; 1622; Res 252 | none | Res 109 | 1622; 1658; Res 252 |
Reading. The state plans the inputs of a future protein system (clean power, hydrogen, carbon limits, water) to 2050. It plans the outputs (meat, feed, aquaculture, feed crops) only to 2030, and it never plans protein itself 7,12,33,38 . The first official 2035 numbers relevant to protein supply are Decision 1466's biotech targets.
What changed in 2025 and 2026. Decision 1466 replaced the 2021 agri-biotech scheme (Decision 429); Resolution 252 amended the national master plan (Resolution 81/2023); Decision 1177 adjusted the land plan; Decision 604 aligned the science strategy with Resolution 57; Decision 1355/QD-BCT extended MOIT's 2021 biotech scheme to 2045; Decision 768 replaced the 2023 power plan. The livestock, fisheries, crop, climate, methane, hydrogen, water and feed instruments are unchanged, and their MARD and MONRE tasks now sit with MAE 6,45,15,28,22,33 .
Y.2 What is missing
Y.2.1 Absences
- No protein, feed or alternative-protein number beyond 2030. We found no official meat, feed, fishmeal, feed-crop or alternative-protein number for 2035, 2040, 2045 or 2050 in Decisions 1520, 339, 150, 1748, 1625, 1466, 1664 or 389 7,12,16,2,6,4,13 .
- No aquafeed or fishmeal target at any horizon. Decisions 339 and 1664 order trash-fish replacement and feed zones without a volume or date 12,4 .
- No feed-crop or feed-import target. The land plan releases about 654 thousand ha of rice land by 2030 without saying for what 16,15 .
- No protein-intake norm. The nutrition, health and food-systems instruments set no protein target and do not mention plant-based or new foods 46,47,42 .
- Fermentation is absent from the new instruments. The strategic technology missions, Decision 1466, the AI strategy and the draft biotechnology strategy do not name fermentation, microbial biomass or alternative protein 26,6,29,53 .
- No pilot-plant or biofoundry target, and little money. Decision 1466 sets labs and staff numbers only. We found no budget line for Resolution 36; the only protein-adjacent budget is the feed scheme's, about USD 6 million a year 6,21,2 .
- The official livestock climate levers are rations, manure and biogas, not alternative protein 38 .
Y.2.2 Three import-replacement targets that cannot be measured
| Instrument | Scope | 2030 | Later | Basket or baseline defined? | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolution 36 and Decision 1466 | Imported biotech products | At least 50% replaced | 60% (2035) | Neither | 20,6 |
| Decision 1355/QD-BCT | Imports comparable to MOIT scheme products | At least 20% | 30 to 50% (2045) | Neither | 22 |
| Decision 1625 | Feed additives | Domestic supply 30 to 35% of demand | none | Product group named; no baseline | 2 |
None can be read from customs data today. Resolution 36's biotech share of GDP (7% in 2030; 10 to 15% in 2045) also has no statistical definition. Do not confuse "10 to 15% of GDP" (Resolution 36) with "15% of biotech industry value added" (Decision 1466): the denominators differ 20,6 .
Y.2.3 Windows to add targets, 2026 to 2030
| Window | Lead | Expected | What it could carry | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food Safety Law and its decree | MOH | 2026 to 2027 | A definition of new food and a route with deadlines | 54,55 |
| Biotechnology-cluster plan (Directive 13) | MAE | December 2026 | Named fermentation and feed-protein sites | 24,56 |
| National biotechnology strategy, vision 2045 | MOST | 2026 to 2027 (draft) | Fermentation and protein named; an import basket | 53 |
| NDC 3.0 (2026 to 2035) | MAE | 2026 to 2027 | First 2035 agriculture and livestock pathways | 48,49 |
| Water resources strategy to 2050 | MAE | 2026 | Groundwater rules for Mekong plants and farms | 10 |
| Provincial hi-tech agriculture zones (Decree 263/2026) | Provinces | From July 2026 | Pilot fermentation and feed-trial campuses | 57 |
| Legal track for offshore wind "for new energy" | MOIT | 2027 to 2030 | Hydrogen siting for protein from power | 58,59 |
| Successor livestock and fisheries strategies | MAE | Drafting 2028 to 2030 | Protein and feed-balance targets for 2035 to 2050 | 10,7,12 |
Y.3 International protein strategies: the benchmark
Y.3.1 Register
All 23 rows of protein_strategies_benchmark.csv. Future targets are official targets of the country named, not our forecasts.
| ID | Country and instrument | Horizon | Target | Public money | Achieved so far | Lesson | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSB-001 | Denmark: Plant-based Foods plan (2023) | 2030 | None quantified | DKK 675 M, 2023 to 2030 (about USD 12 M a year); permanent from 2024 | No KPIs | A fund without a number cannot be judged | 60,61 |
| PSB-002 | Denmark: Green Tripartite (2024) | 2030; 2035 | Livestock CO2e tax DKK 300 (2030) and 750 (2035) per t, 60% deduction | Land fund DKK 40 bn | Agreed | First livestock carbon price, paired with money | 62,61 |
| PSB-003 | Netherlands: Protein Strategy (2020) | 2030 | More self-sufficiency in new proteins (qualitative) | Not stated | No quantitative targets; animal protein recast as "indispensable" (2024) | Reversible without a statistic | 63,64 |
| PSB-004 | Netherlands: diet ambition | 2030 | Animal protein from 60% to 50% of intake | n/a | Not tracked | Diet ratios are hard to measure and out of scope | 63 |
| PSB-005 | Flanders: protein strategy | 2030 | 60% plant, 40% animal | Not read | Not read | Same problem | 65 |
| PSB-006 | Germany: Protein Crop Strategy (2012) | None | None | EUR 6 M a year from 2016 | Pulses 191,700 ha (2018) | Area followed farm-payment rules | 66 |
| PSB-007 | United Kingdom: National Food Strategy review (2021) | 2032 | Not read | n/a | Response not read | A review without adoption leaves nothing to track | 67 |
| PSB-008 | EU: plant-protein report (2018) | None | None | Farm policy | High-protein feed self-sufficiency still about 26% | No number, no change | 68,69 |
| PSB-009 | EU: Protein Action Plan (7 Jul 2026) | 2035 | EU-grown share of oilseed and protein-crop feed protein from 25.8% to 35% | Farm policy; Horizon Europe; EIB | New | First numeric target; comes with a balance sheet | 70 |
| PSB-010 | Canada: Protein Industries Canada roadmap (2021) | 2035 | CAD 25 bn annual sales; 17,000 jobs | CAD 150 M federal, 2023 to 2028 | No progress report | Value target without a baseline | 71,72 |
| PSB-011 | Israel: Innovation Authority plan (2023) | 2030 | A projection: USD 2.5 bn, 10,000 jobs | Over NIS 140 M in a decade | 73 start-ups (claim) | R&D-led niche | 73,74 |
| PSB-012 | Singapore: "30 by 30" (2019) | 2030 | 30% of nutrition local | S$144 M R&D | Dropped (Nov 2025) at about 26% protein, 8% fibre | Land, cost and finance beat the target | 75,76 |
| PSB-013 | Singapore: Food Story 2 (2025) | 2035 | 30% of protein and 20% of fibre local; alternative protein excluded | S$42 M, 11 projects | New | Regulator and financier roles kept | 75 |
| PSB-014 | Korea: FoodTech Basic Plan (Jul 2026) | 2030 | Funds and centres; no protein volume | KRW 51 bn (2024) to 100 bn (2027) | New | Statute plus five-year plans | 77,78 |
| PSB-015 | Korea: food-security targets | 2027 | Major crops 55.5%; food maize 2% | Direct payments | About 21.5 Mt of compound feed still import-based | A feed importer of Vietnam's size sets crop, not feed-protein, targets | 79 |
| PSB-016 | Japan: Basic Plan (2020) | FY2030 | Feed self-sufficiency 25% to 34% | Feed-rice payments | 27% (FY2024); target cut to 28% | Land-based ratio barely moved in 25 years | 80,81 |
| PSB-017 | Japan: Basic Plan (2025) | FY2030 | Feed 28%; KPIs checked yearly | n/a | Feed-rice area fell 53% in one year | Yearly checks make misses visible | 82,81 |
| PSB-018 | Japan: MIDORI strategy (2021) | 2050 | Zero fossil CO2 in farming; organic on 25% of farmland | Not read | Not assessed | A 2050 vision with no protein KPI | 83 |
| PSB-019 | Japan: food-tech investment roadmap (press, 2026) | 2040 | JPY 9.7 tn to 2040, novel foods JPY 1 tn | See target | New | Primary text not read | 77 |
| PSB-020 | China: soybean-meal reduction plan | 2030 | Soybean meal below 13% of feed (2025) and 10% (2030) | Not stated | 13.4% in 2025 (missed) | Formulation moves faster than land | 84,85 |
| PSB-021 | Thailand: future food strategy (2023) | 2027 | Future-food exports THB 140 bn to 350 bn | See Y.4 | Not verified | Conflicting figures in circulation | 86,65 |
| PSB-022 | Norway: salmon-feed goals | 2030 | All feed from sustainable sources (no number) | Research funding | Marine share 90% (1990) to 22.4% (2020); novel 0.4% | Price moved the marine share; policy did not move novel ingredients | 87,88,89 |
| PSB-023 | Vietnam (reference): Decision 1625 | 2030 | Feed 30 to 32 Mt; additives 30 to 35% domestic | About USD 6 M a year | 2025 feed target probably missed | No protein statistic | 2 |
Context and sources
EU, Canada and Singapore stop at 2035; Japan at FY2030; China, Israel and the Netherlands at 2030. Japan's MIDORI (2050) and Denmark's land deal (2045) carry no protein indicator. One exception: a Japanese food-tech investment roadmap to 2040, reported only in the press (Low confidence). 70,71,75,82,83
Readings.
- No country we checked sets a volume target for fermentation-derived or cultivated protein. Quantified targets are feed-protein self-sufficiency (EU, Japan, China), diet ratios (Netherlands, Flanders) or sector value (Canada, Thailand) 70,81,85,63,71 .
- Feed self-sufficiency targets are usually missed, then cut, and only the EU, Japan and Singapore publish a statistic that shows progress 81,85,75,70,82 .
- Horizons stop at 2030 to 2035. MIDORI (2050) and Denmark's land deal (2045) carry no protein indicator; Japan's food-tech roadmap to 2040 has a novel-food line, but we read it only in the press 83,62,77 .
Y.3.2 Pace of change in the analogues
Simple averages between two published points (working-papers/wave3/vision_benchmarks/vis_calc.py, part A).
| Analogue | Metric | Achieved pace | Pace the target needs | Use for Vietnam | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Soybean-meal share of feed, 2017 to 2025 | Minus 0.14 to 0.45 points a year (0.9 to 2.9% relative) | Minus 0.68 points a year to 2030 | The formulation lever; RM-02's 1 to 2% a year sits inside it | 84,85 |
| EU | EU-grown share of crop feed protein | About 0, 2018 to 2025 | Plus 0.92 points a year to 2035 | Upper bound for a domestic-origin share | 70,69 |
| Japan | Pure-domestic feed self-sufficiency | Minus 0.04 points a year, FY2000 to FY2024 | Plus 0.8 points a year to FY2030 | Downside: land-poor importers do not move it | 81 |
| Norway | Marine share of salmon feed | Minus 2.6 (1990 to 2013), then minus 1.1 points a year (to 2020) | None | Price can drive fast substitution in aquafeed | 87,88 |
| Norway | Novel ingredients in salmon feed | 0.4% in 2020, similar to 2016 | None | Ceiling for novel feed protein at national scale today | 87,89 |
Applied to Vietnam (our calculation, vis_calc.py parts B and C). A soybean-meal inclusion trend of minus 1% a year lowers inclusion by 22% by 2050; minus 2% a year by 40% . The balance model's S-ALT scenario puts microbial protein at 1.0% (2030), 2.7% (2035), 4.4% (2040) and 8.4% (2050) of high-protein feed protein: plausible in 2030 against Norway's 0.4%, above any analogue in 2050 87 .
Y.3.3 Peer budgets
| Programme | Money | About a year | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark: Plant-based Food Grant | DKK 675 M, 2023 to 2030 | USD 12 M | 60 |
| Germany: Protein Crop Strategy | EUR 6 M a year since 2016 | EUR 6 M | 66 |
| Canada: Protein Industries Canada (federal) | CAD 150 M, 2023 to 2028 | USD 22 M | 65,71 |
| Korea: food-tech policy funds | KRW 100 bn cumulative by 2027 | About USD 68 M in total | 77,65 |
| Vietnam: feed scheme (Decision 1625) | VND 1,310 bn, 2023 to 2030 | USD 6.3 M | 2 |
A dedicated Vietnamese protein and feed-innovation line of USD 5 to 15 M a year from 2027 (VM-04, RM-11) would sit inside this peer range (our estimate; currency conversions approximate) .
Y.3.4 Framing and review cycles
- Security framing has displaced climate framing (2024 to 2026). The EU's July 2026 plan is titled for "resilience, strategic autonomy and sustainability"; Japan and Korea state targets as food security; Singapore left alternative protein out of its food-security targets for cost and acceptance reasons 70,82,79,75 .
- Denmark alone pairs a transition fund with a price on livestock emissions from 2030. Vietnam's carbon market excludes agriculture, so this is a benchmark for the 2040s, not a near-term lever 62,61 .
- Review cycles decide whether a vision survives. Japan checks KPIs every year; Finland reports each electoral term; Korea runs five-year plans under a statute (
foresight_methods.csv, FSM-012, FSM-017, FSM-018) 82,90,77 . - Vietnam's foresight base is thin. The Delphi for the 2021 to 2030 science strategy had 15 experts per field; its authors advise small scenario workshops 91 . Vietnam 2035 is the precedent for a jointly written national vision 92 . Method: U. Futures method.
Y.4 Bioeconomy strategies in the region
Condensed from the 24 rows of bioeconomy_strategies.csv.
| Country | Instruments | Horizon | Protein or biomanufacturing content | Money | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | Resolution 36; Resolution 189/NQ-CP; Decisions 1466, 1355/QD-BCT, 1002, 1671; draft biotech strategy | 2030 to 2045 | Import-replacement and GDP-share targets; talent quotas; no protein or fermentation target | None earmarked | 21,93,6,23,30,53 |
| Thailand | BCG model (2021); biotechnology framework 2026 to 2035 | 2027; 2035 | Future food and alternative proteins a target sub-industry; public precision-fermentation pilot plant | 500 M baht a year for 10 years; THB 5 bn for skills | 94,95,96 |
| China | 15th Five-Year Plan (2026 to 2030); feed plan | 2030 | Biomanufacturing a "future industry"; single-cell protein named to cut soybean meal | About USD 1 bn public alternative-protein investment (2025) | 97,98,99,100 |
| India | BioE3 (2024) | 2030; 2050 | Bioeconomy USD 300 bn by 2030; "smart proteins" named; 21 BioEnabler facilities | Not stated | 101 |
| Japan | Bioeconomy Strategy (2024) | 2030 | JPY 100 tn bioeconomy; research on cell-based food, precision fermentation, algae | JPY 3 tn a year, public and private | 102 |
| Korea | Synthetic Biology Act (in force 2026); Food Tech Act | 2027; 2035 | National biofoundry; five-year plans | KRW 100 bn food-tech fund by 2027 | 103,104 |
| Singapore | RIE2030; Food Story 2 | 2030; 2035 | Biomanufacturing hub; food targets exclude alternative protein | S$37 bn, 2026 to 2030 | 105,76 |
| Malaysia | Biotechnology Policy 2.0 | 2030 | Names cultivated meat and fish | Not verified | 106 |
| EU; United States; Denmark | Biotech Act I (proposal); biotech commission report (2025); biosolutions programme | 2029 to 2030 | EU sandboxes exclude novel foods; US agriculture given "limited attention" | US federal alternative-protein funding about USD 11 M (2025), down from about USD 115 M; Denmark DKK 460 M | 107,108,100 |
| ASEAN | We found no framework | n/a | Edition 1.0 option PO-014: co-lead ASEAN novel-food reliance work | n/a |
Readings. Every neighbour has a named, funded biotech or biomanufacturing instrument with a 2030 to 2035 horizon; Vietnam has targets without money or a protein line 97,102,95,21 . Food is the orphan of these strategies to 2030: money goes first to pharma, chemicals and materials 76,107,108 . Nobody has a funded biomanufacturing plan to 2050 101 .
Y.5 Places: the spatial frame
No official text sites a protein or fermentation industry. The six candidate hubs combine sourced map layers into places where several inputs meet. They are options to test, not forecasts. Files: hub_layers.csv, candidate_hubs.csv, working-papers/wave3/spatial_hubs/hub_calc.py.
Place names (current unit, former units in brackets; P. Admin map): Ca Mau (former Ca Mau, Bac Lieu); Vinh Long (former Vinh Long, Tra Vinh, Ben Tre); Dong Thap (former Dong Thap, Tien Giang); Can Tho (former Can Tho, Hau Giang, Soc Trang); An Giang (former An Giang, Kien Giang); Tay Ninh (former Tay Ninh, Long An); Dong Nai (former Dong Nai, Binh Phuoc); Ho Chi Minh City (former Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, Ba Ria-Vung Tau); Khanh Hoa (former Khanh Hoa, Ninh Thuan); Lam Dong (former Lam Dong, Binh Thuan, Dak Nong); Gia Lai (former Gia Lai, Binh Dinh); Quang Ngai (former Quang Ngai, Kon Tum); Da Nang (former Da Nang, Quang Nam); Hai Phong (former Hai Phong, Hai Duong); Hung Yen (former Hung Yen, Thai Binh); Bac Ninh (former Bac Ninh, Bac Giang); Ninh Binh (former Ninh Binh, Ha Nam, Nam Dinh); Quang Tri (former Quang Tri, Quang Binh).
Y.5.1 The layers
| Layer | Rows in hub_layers.csv | What it holds | Strongest places | Main gap | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | 11 | Renewable-energy industry centres, offshore wind, irradiance, nuclear, tariff | South-central coast; Ca Mau wind; southern solar | National tariff (about USD 75 per MWh for a 24/7 plant): place pays only with dedicated supply | 109,34,110,111 |
| Hydrogen | 8 | Projects with stated size and start | Mekong coast | Nothing built | 112,113 |
| CO2 | 14 | Steel, fertiliser, refinery, ethanol, high-CO2 gas | Quang Ngai; northern steel and coal-based ammonia | No site reports volume and purity | 114,115,116 |
| Feedstock | 16 (9 carbohydrate, 7 residue) | Cassava, glucose, sugar, rice; straw, pulp, biogas, spent grain, seafood by-products | Tay Ninh and Dong Nai (sugars); Mekong (55% of national straw) | Third-party glucose only in Dong Nai; no by-product atlas | 117,118,119,120 |
| Buyers | 15 | Shrimp and pangasius farms, hatcheries, feed mills, fermenters, the soybean crusher | Ca Mau; Dong Thap; Can Tho; Vinh Long | No provincial table of feed-mill capacity | 121,122,123,124 |
| Research and trials | 10 | Universities, trial centres, test labs, AI compute | Hanoi; Can Tho; Ho Chi Minh City; Khanh Hoa | No open food-grade pilot plant | 125,126,127,128 |
| Zones | 18 | Hi-tech parks, hi-tech agriculture zones, free trade and economic zones, MAE clusters | Ho Chi Minh City; Hanoi | None designed for biomanufacturing | 129,57,56 |
| Land | Not a file layer | Industrial occupancy, Q2 2026: Ho Chi Minh City 86.1%, Dong Nai 73.1%, Tay Ninh 60.9% | Tay Ninh | Land prices by province | 130 |
| Climate risk | Not a file layer | Subsidence, salinity, flood, humid heat | Highest risk: the Ca Mau peninsula | Site elevation and groundwater data | 131,132,133,134 |
Y.5.2 Screening scores
Our judgement for hubs opening between now and 2050: 0 absent, 3 strong; climate scores exposure inversely (3 is low exposure). Equal weights are an assumption; an investor in protein from power would weight the first two columns more .
| Hub | Power and H2 | CO2 | Carbohydrate | Residues | Buyers | Research | Zones | Land and ports | Climate | Total of 27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH-1 Mekong shrimp coast | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| CH-2 Mekong river belt | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| CH-3 Tay Ninh cassava | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| CH-4 Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai, Cai Mep | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
| CH-5 South-central coast | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| CH-6 North | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
Y.5.3 Six candidate hubs, in order of opening
| Hub | Provinces | Assets | Missing | Fitting plays | Timing | Opens when | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH-4 Pilot, tolling and port hub | Ho Chi Minh City; Dong Nai | Vedan, Ajinomoto and AB Mauri fermenters; 140 kt a year of glucose syrup; Saigon Hi-Tech Park; Region II aquafeed trial centre; Cai Mep Ha free trade zone; soybean crusher; fertiliser and ethanol CO2 | An open food-grade pilot offer; affordable land | T5, T7, T1, T9, T8 research | Now to 2035; regional contract role from 2035 | A fermenter or the hi-tech park publishes a tolling offer | 135,136,129,137,130 |
| CH-2 Pangasius, rice and university hub | Dong Thap; An Giang; Can Tho; inland Vinh Long | About 35% of 1.74 Mt of pangasius (Dong Thap); about 26% of national straw-power potential; Can Tho University; Region I trial sub-centre; aquafeed mills | Pilot fermentation; an energy edge | T2, T6, T9, T10; side-stream microbial protein; straw fermentation after 2035 | 2027 to 2035 | A shared pilot fermenter opens in Can Tho | 122,138,119,126 |
| CH-3 Cassava fermentation-sugar hub | Tay Ninh; Dong Nai cassava areas | 68 starch factories; 6.4 Mt a year of root capacity; pulp and biogas; the most vacant industrial land in the south | Third-party glucose; secure roots (Cambodian supply near exhaustion; mosaic disease); CO2 and hydrogen | T4, T3, T2, T7 by tolling, T9 | 2028 to 2040 | A starch group sells glucose under contract | 118,139,130 |
| CH-1 Aquafeed-and-hydrogen hub | Ca Mau; coastal Vinh Long; coastal Can Tho | About 46% of national farmed shrimp; three large aquafeed sites; about 123 kt a year of planned hydrogen; 1,740 MW of approved wind; Dinh An Economic Zone | Built hydrogen; a legal track for new-energy offshore wind; a working zone; CO2 data; subsidence-safe sites | T2 now; T6; T3 after 2030; hydrogen-oxidising bacteria | T2 2027 to 2030; demonstration 2032 to 2035; scale 2040 to 2045 | An electrolyser reaches investment decision and new-energy wind gets a legal track | 112,113,121,140,132 |
| CH-6 Research-and-industry hub | Hanoi; Hai Phong; Quang Ninh; Hung Yen; Bac Ninh; Ninh Binh | Hanoi Biotechnology Hi-Tech Park; Hoa Lac and its AI compute; national institutes; Livestock trial centre I; northern renewable centre; steel CO2 | A biofoundry; cheap hydrogen; carbohydrate; aquafeed demand | AI bio-design and a build-test lab; T8; T7 strains; T9; P3, P4 | Research now to 2035; industry 2040 to 2050 | Northern offshore wind and published CO2 purity data | 141,142,143,128,110 |
| CH-5 Renewable-protein coast | Khanh Hoa; Lam Dong; link to Gia Lai | Southern renewable centre; top irradiance; planned nuclear (4.0 to 6.4 GW, 2030 to 2035); over 30% of national shrimp postlarvae; Nha Trang research | Concentrated CO2; hydrogen projects; buyers; a pilot site; water (not verified) | Hatchery microalgae and larval feeds (2027 to 2035); protein from renewable power (2040 to 2050) | 2035 to 2050 | New-energy wind is legal and an electrolyser is built here | 109,144,34,110 |
A corridor to watch, not a hub. Quang Ngai (Dung Quat steel, refinery, ethanol), Da Nang and Gia Lai hold the largest CO2 sources but few feed buyers and no hydrogen; the Ca Voi Xanh gas field had no first-gas date in July 2026. The corridor could fit protein from steel off-gas in 2035 to 2045 if a steel maker chose that route 116,145,114 .
Y.5.4 Renewable-energy industry centres and the hydrogen pipeline
- Two renewable-energy industry and service centres by 2030: in the north at Hai Phong, Quang Ninh and Hung Yen, and in the south at Khanh Hoa, Lam Dong and Ho Chi Minh City, with equipment making, ports, green industrial zones and R&D (Decision 1509/QD-BCT, 30 May 2025; Decision 458, March 2026). Decision 768 itself names only regions 146,109,147,148,59 .
- Offshore wind "for new energy" (about 15 GW in 2035 and 240 GW in 2050) has no province and no legal track; Decree 272/2026 covers grid supply only 34,58 .
| Project | Current (former) | Stated capacity | Stated start | Reality check | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tra Vinh Green Hydrogen, Dinh An Economic Zone | Vinh Long (Tra Vinh) | 24 kt H2, 182.5 kt ammonia, about 195 kt O2 a year; VND 7,856 bn | Q2 2027 | Fence and gate only in May 2026; the province ordered a review. Not credible | 112,113,149 |
| Ben Tre | Vinh Long (Ben Tre) | 24 kt H2 | Q2 2028 | Not verified | 112 |
| Bac Lieu | Ca Mau (Bac Lieu) | 70 kt H2, two phases | 2029; 2032 | Not verified | 112 |
| Tien Giang | Dong Thap (Tien Giang) | 5,294 t H2 | 2028 | Not verified | 112 |
| Binh Dinh; Long An | Gia Lai; Tay Ninh | 20 kt; 249 t | Proposed | Long An is pilot scale | 112,150 |
The Mekong total is about 123 kt a year (our sum), against a national target of 100 to 500 kt by 2030. The bottleneck is demand: hydrogen "still has few uses" 112,37 . A protein plant beside an electrolyser is one of the few local uses that needs no pipeline.
Y.5.5 Zones
- Cai Mep Ha free trade zone (Decision 4560/QD-UBND, 23 July 2026): 4,174.35 ha in Ho Chi Minh City, with 906.07 ha for logistics and 850.67 ha for industry, urban use and services beside a deep-sea port. "Green" and "circular" production are named; biotech and food are not 129 . Its neighbours, the VAL crusher (nearly 2 Mt of soybean meal a year) and Entobel's insect plant, are the incumbents a novel feed protein must beat 137 .
- Decree 263/2026 on khu nông nghiệp ứng dụng công nghệ cao (hi-tech agriculture zones), in force from 1 July 2026: provinces decide; functions are research, trials, pilot production and incubation; incentives are 70% interest support capped at 8% a year and land-fee exemption for infrastructure. It fits a feed-trial and pilot-fermentation campus; we could not tell whether full-scale plants qualify 57,151 .
- The bioeconomy's own map is blank: on 24 September 2026 MAE had published no location for its biotechnology clusters (due December 2026) or its "at least 5" innovation centres to 2030 56,152 .
- Lessons from stalled zones. The 418 ha Bac Lieu shrimp hi-tech zone (2017), whose scope includes feed processing, lost investors while land procedures stayed unresolved. The 5,200 ha Hau Giang zone (2012) had cleared only 10 ha for investors by 2020. Fix land procedures before announcing 153,154 .
- Rivals put pilot capacity inside designated zones: Thailand's EECi (two 15,000 L fermenters), Singapore's ScaleUp Bio, India's BioE3 hubs 155,156 .
Y.5.6 The north's research assets
The Hanoi Biotechnology Hi-Tech Park (199.03 ha; Decision 1054/QD-TTg, September 2024) is zoned with a 30% density cap and 1 to 8 floors: laboratories and a biofoundry, not bulk fermentation 141,142 . Hoa Lac has a 263 ha R&D zone and an AI system since February 2026 143,128 . Institutes include the food industries research institute (FIRI) and the national food-control institute; a livestock trial centre runs official feed trials from 1 October 2026 157,158,127 . Inputs are the weakness: modelled solar hydrogen costs USD 3.76 to 3.88 per kg in the north against 2.81 to 2.85 in the south 110 .
Y.5.7 Climate limits in the Mekong
| Hazard | Evidence | Siting consequence | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low ground | Mean elevation about 0.8 m above sea level | Official flood figures are a lower bound | 159 |
| Subsidence | About 1.1 cm a year from groundwater pumping; 12 to 100 cm by 2100 depending on extraction; the Ca Mau peninsula falls below sea level this century in every pathway | Plants built after 2035 in coastal Ca Mau or Vinh Long need raised sites and surface water | 131,132 |
| Salinity | Salinity-affected area up 10 to 27% by about 2050 from subsidence and riverbed incision, plus 6 to 19% from sea-level rise | Coastal land moves from rice to shrimp: more aquafeed demand, fewer rice by-products | 133,160 |
| Flood | With 50 cm of sea-level rise, every 2009 pangasius farm site faces 2 m floods (mostly after 2050) | River-belt plants need flood-safe platforms | 161 |
| Humid heat | Up to 60 extra days a year above a wet-bulb globe temperature of 32 °C before 2040 | Design processes for 40 °C cooling water | 134 |
Y.5.8 Co-location arithmetic
Our calculation in hub_calc.py for sites built 2035 to 2045 .
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Per t of protein, hydrogen route | 0.69 t H2; 2.95 t CO2; 0.24 t ammonia; about 3.2 t O2; 64 to 83 MWh | 162 |
| Tra Vinh design; Mekong planned hydrogen | 24 kt H2 and about 195 kt O2 a year; 123.3 kt H2 a year | 113,112 |
| Ethanol-plant CO2 | 50 to 82 kt a year each | co2_point_sources_vn.csv |
| Cassava | 5.4 Mt of roots per 1.32 Mt of glucose (S-ALT, 2050); 0.45 to 0.50 t of cells per t of glucose; 60 to 65% protein (assumed); former Tay Ninh root capacity 6.4 Mt a year | Balance model; 118 |
| Result | Value |
|---|---|
| A 10 kt a year hydrogen-route protein plant needs | 6.9 kt H2 (29% of the Tra Vinh design), 29.5 kt CO2, 32 kt O2, 0.64 to 0.83 TWh |
| Tra Vinh's by-product oxygen alone covers | About 61 kt of protein a year |
| All planned Mekong hydrogen, if it all went to protein (upper bound) | About 179 kt of protein a year |
| One ethanol plant's CO2 supports | About 17 to 28 kt of protein a year |
| A 20 kt a year protein plant on cassava glucose needs | 252 to 303 kt of roots: 3.9 to 4.7% of former Tay Ninh capacity |
| The S-ALT 2050 cassava need | 84% of former Tay Ninh capacity |
| The S-ALT 2050 feed product (about 860 kt dry) | About 78 times Entobel's Vietnamese capacity (11 kt a year across two plants) or 43 plants of Calysseo's 20 kt size |
| Buyers | Ca Mau farmed 46.1% of national shrimp in 2025 (594,851 of 1,291,000 t); Dong Thap's pangasius needs 0.91 to 1.04 Mt of feed a year at a feed conversion ratio of 1.5 to 1.7 (assumed) |
Reading. For a protein pilot, co-location with an electrolyser matters more than the hydrogen itself: by-product oxygen and ammonia and a buyer next door are the advantage. Several sugar-route plants fit in Tay Ninh; a national 2050 build-out does not 113,118 .
Y.5.9 A siting rule for 2050, and the scenarios
A siting rule for the S-ALT plants in 2050, not a forecast : plants on sugar follow carbohydrate (CH-3, CH-4, the Central Highlands); plants on hydrogen follow electrolysers (CH-1 first, CH-5 later); functional-ingredient plants follow buyers and trial sites (CH-2, CH-4). No hub can host the whole scenario. In the 2035 scenarios of Outlook, CH-4 alone matters in Scenario 1; CH-2 and CH-3 lead Scenario 2; Scenario 3 needs CH-4 for tolling and CH-6 for research. The hydrogen hubs (CH-1 at scale, CH-5) belong only to 2040 to 2050 worlds in which new-energy offshore wind is built; the mapping to the 2050 worlds is in Scenarios 2050.
Y.6 Vision milestones
All 22 rows of vision_milestones.csv. Each row is a normative milestone of Vision 2050: a goal put forward for discussion, not a forecast and not an official target. The benchmark and evidence tag describe what makes it plausible.
| ID | Year | Plan cycle | Pillar | Normative milestone | Value | Trend | Benchmark | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VM-01 | 2026 to 2028 | 2026 to 2030 | Measure | First national protein and feed balance, then yearly | By 2028 | None exists | EU balance sheet; Japan's yearly KPI checks | 70,82 |
| VM-02 | 2026 to 2028 | 2026 to 2030 | Rules | New-food procedure with timelines and reliance; aquafeed entries for microbial biomass and algal oils | By 2027 to 2028 | No procedure | Korea changed a rule in about nine months | 54,163 |
| VM-03 | 2026 to 2028 | 2026 to 2030 | Places | Fermentation and feed-protein sites named in the MAE cluster plan | December 2026 to 2027 | Map blank | Thailand's EECi; India's BioE3 hubs | 56,156 |
| VM-04 | 2026 to 2028 | 2026 to 2030 | Money | Dedicated protein and feed-innovation line | USD 5 to 15 M a year | About USD 6 M (feed scheme) | Denmark, Germany, Canada | 60,66,2 |
| VM-05 | 2030 | 2026 to 2030 | Economise | Soybean-meal import need near the efficiency path | 7.8 to 8.3 Mt | 8.5 Mt | China's formulation pace | 84,85 |
| VM-06 | 2030 | 2026 to 2030 | Diversify | Microbial (non-insect) feed protein in use | About 1% of high-protein feed protein (about 50 kt; about nine times Entobel's Vietnamese capacity of 11 kt a year) | Near 0 | Norway 0.4% (2020) | 87 |
| VM-07 | 2030 | 2026 to 2030 | Places | One open food-grade pilot plant | 10,000 to 30,000 L | None | ScaleUp Bio; EECi | 155 |
| VM-08 | 2030 | 2031 to 2035 | Measure | Successor livestock and fisheries strategies carry protein-balance targets for 2035 to 2040 | Targets adopted | Targets stop at 2030 | EU 2035 target | 10,70 |
| VM-09 | 2035 | 2031 to 2035 | Economise | Soybean-meal need below trend | 8.1 to 9.0 Mt | 9.5 Mt | EU target pace | 70 |
| VM-10 | 2035 | 2031 to 2035 | Diversify | Microbial feed protein grows with fishmeal parity | 1 to 3% | Near 0 | No national analogue above 1% | 87 |
| VM-11 | 2035 | 2031 to 2035 | Measure | Domestic-origin share of feed protein rises | Plus 3.5 to 7 points on the baseline | Flat (Japan) | EU pace (0.9 points a year) as the top | 70,81 |
| VM-12 | 2035 | 2031 to 2035 | Review | First full review against the scenario signposts | Review published | None | JRC stress test; FAO triggers | 164,165 |
| VM-13 | 2040 | 2036 to 2040 | Economise | Soybean-meal need below trend | 7.8 to 9.2 Mt | 10.0 Mt | S-EFF to S-ALT | 166 |
| VM-14 | 2040 | 2036 to 2040 | Diversify | Microbial feed protein | 2 to 4% | Near 0 | S-ALT (4.4%) | 166 |
| VM-15 | 2040 | 2036 to 2040 | Decarbonise | Residue carbon and clean power supply most new fermentation capacity | A majority of new capacity | Cassava and grid power | Power plan: 74 to 75% non-hydro renewables by 2050 | 52,167 |
| VM-16 | 2045 | 2041 to 2045 | Specialise | In line with the 2045 visions of Resolutions 36 and 57: biotechnology a major industry; high-income status | Biotech 10 to 15% of GDP (undefined statistic) | n/a | Official 2045 visions | 20,21 |
| VM-17 | 2045 | 2041 to 2045 | Diversify | Protein from power at commercial scale on the Mekong shrimp coast, if the five conditions of chapter 16 align | At least one plant (conditional) | None | Chapter 16 conditions | 162,113 |
| VM-18 | 2050 | 2046 to 2050 | Economise | Soybean-meal need well below trend | 7.0 to 8.8 Mt | 10.4 Mt | Balance model; China and Norway | 166,88 |
| VM-19 | 2050 | 2046 to 2050 | Diversify | Microbial feed protein | 4 to 8% | Near 0 | A stretch above any analogue | 87 |
| VM-20 | 2050 | 2046 to 2050 | Diversify | Non-marine omega-3 in aquafeed | 15 to 50% of EPA plus DHA | Near 0 | Algal and oilseed oils are commercial | 168,169,170 |
| VM-21 | 2050 | 2046 to 2050 | Measure | Domestic-origin share of feed protein | Plus 11 to 22 points on the 2028 baseline | Flat | EU pace as the top | 70 |
| VM-22 | 2050 | 2046 to 2050 | Decarbonise | Agriculture within its cap, with feed protein counted | 56 MtCO2e or less | 104.5 MtCO2e (2020) | Official cap | 39 |
Links. VM-03 depends on the December 2026 cluster plan (Y.2.3) and the hubs of Y.5; VM-04 sits inside the peer budgets of Y.3.3; VM-08 is the only milestone that would put a protein number into an official strategy beyond 2030; VM-11 and VM-21 take the EU pace (Y.3.2) as their top; VM-16 and VM-22 restate official targets from Y.1.
Y.7 Robust moves register
All 21 rows of robust_moves.csv, short form. Class and scores are our judgement of payoffs to 2050 across the worlds of Scenarios 2050, in the order A, B, C, D (2 thrives, 1 holds, 0 struggles) . Signposts (signposts_2050.csv): SP-01 fishmeal above USD 2,500 per t for 12 months; SP-02 anchoveta quota below 2 Mt in two of five years; SP-05 a month-long shipping disruption; SP-10 Chinese yeast and protein imports up over 20% a year for three years; SP-12 an ASEAN novel-food reliance mechanism; SP-13 non-Chinese Asian plants above 10 kt a year selling regionally; SP-16 landed Chinese microbial protein below its production cost for two quarters.
| ID | Move | Class | Lead actors | Start by | Pays off in (A, B, C, D) | Trigger | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RM-01 | Publish a national protein and feed balance | No-regret | MAE; NSO; feed association | 2028 | All (2, 2, 2, 2) | None needed | 70,82 |
| RM-02 | Feed-efficiency and formulation programme | No-regret | MAE; integrators; feed mills; universities | 2027 | All (2, 2, 2, 2) | None needed | 84,85 |
| RM-03 | New-food and new-feed-ingredient routes with deadlines | No-regret | MOH; MAE | 2027 to 2028 | All (2, 2, 2, 2) | Food Safety Law and decree; feed-list updates | 54,163 |
| RM-04 | Shared food-grade pilot and feed-trial capacity | No-regret | MOST; Ho Chi Minh City; universities; DFIs | 2030 | All (2, 2, 2, 2) | None needed | 155,171 |
| RM-05 | Protein-quality laboratory and open price series | No-regret | MOST; MAE; a university | 2028 | All (2, 2, 2, 2) | None needed | Adulteration is a listed wildcard (X. Drivers and signals) |
| RM-06 | Residue-carbon rules and a by-product atlas | No-regret | MAE; provinces; industry | 2028 | All (2, 2, 2, 2) | None needed | 17,172 |
| RM-07 | Omega-3 sourcing plan for aquafeed | No-regret | Feed mills; MAE; research institutes | 2028 | All (2, 2, 2, 2) | None needed | 173,168 |
| RM-08 | Climate-proof siting for new plants | No-regret | Provinces; MAE; investors | 2027 | All (2, 2, 2, 2) | None needed | 131,132,134 |
| RM-09 | Process-engineering skills | No-regret | MOET; MOST; universities; industry | 2027 | All (2, 2, 2, 2) | None needed | 30,174 |
| RM-10 | Reserve hub sites | Option | MAE; provinces | 2026 to 2027 | A, C; D partly (2, 0, 2, 1) | Cluster plan drafting now | 56,57 |
| RM-11 | Small permanent protein-innovation fund | Option | MOST; MAE; MOF | 2027 | A, C (2, 1, 2, 1) | None needed | 60,66,65 |
| RM-12 | Concessional finance window for first plants | Option | MOF; State Bank; DFIs | 2028 (ready) | C, D (0, 0, 2, 2) | SP-01 or SP-02 | Capital charge from 12% to 9% does as much as the cost learning expected by 2030 (our calculation) |
| RM-13 | Join regional approval and statistics networks | Option | MOH; MAE; MOIT | 2027 | A, C (2, 1, 2, 1) | SP-12 | 175,70 |
| RM-14 | Seed research on cultivated seafood cells and gas fermentation | Option | MOST; VAST; universities | 2028 | A, C (2, 0, 2, 0) | None needed | 176 |
| RM-15 | Clear rules for second-hand fermentation equipment | Option | MOF; MOIT | 2027 | C; A, D partly (1, 0, 2, 1) | Distressed-asset sales abroad | 177 |
| RM-16 | Bulk microbial feed protein beyond about 1% of feed protein | Bet | Investors; feed mills; DFIs | On signpost | C; D partly (0, 0, 2, 1) | SP-01 sustained, and pilot cost within 1.2 times fishmeal-protein parity | 87,89 |
| RM-17 | Protein-from-power demonstration on the Mekong shrimp coast | Bet | Investors; hydrogen developers; MOIT | 2032 to 2035 at the earliest | C; A partly (1, 0, 2, 0) | Green hydrogen below USD 2 per kg; firm renewable power below USD 45 per MWh | 162,113 |
| RM-18 | Contract precision-fermentation plant for export | Bet | Investors; foreign partners | 2030 to 2035 | A; C partly (2, 0, 1, 0) | A new-food route, SP-12 or SP-13, and an anchor customer | 178,179 |
| RM-19 | Cellulosic sugar from rice straw | Bet | Investors; MOIT; provinces | On signpost | C; A partly (1, 0, 2, 0) | An Asian straw plant above 80% of design capacity for two years | 180,181 |
| RM-20 | Diversified feed-protein sourcing and working stocks | Hedge | Feed mills; integrators; MOIT | 2027 | C, D (1, 1, 2, 2) | SP-05 | 182,183 |
| RM-21 | Import monitoring and equal standards for protein imports | Hedge | MOF (customs); MAE | 2027 | B, D (1, 2, 1, 2) | SP-10; SP-16 | We found no baseline import series |
Links. RM-10 is the spatial move (Y.5.5); RM-08 applies the climate limits of Y.5.7; RM-01, RM-03 and RM-06 would fill absences in Y.2.1; RM-17 depends on the hydrogen pipeline of Y.5.4.
Y.8 Gaps and open questions
These feed Q. Open questions; conflicting numbers go to R. Disagreements.
| # | Gap | Cheapest way to close it |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Signed text of Decision 1466 (tasks, lead units, funding) | Signed PDF on vanban.chinhphu.vn or the MAE portal |
| 2 | Whether the national biotechnology strategy is issued and names fermentation or protein | Watch vanban.chinhphu.vn and mst.gov.vn |
| 3 | Scope of the 30 to 32 Mt feed target (livestock only, Medium) | One e-mail to the MAE livestock department |
| 4 | Base year of the 2050 methane target (a 2030 base means about 58% below 2020 if both targets are met, our arithmetic) | The signed PDF of Decision 896 |
| 5 | NDC 3.0 agriculture and livestock pathways for 2035 | MAE climate change department; UNDP Viet Nam |
| 6 | Agriculture indicators of Decision 882; whether Decision 287 stays in force under the Law on Planning (10 December 2025) | thuvienphapluat.vn; the law's transitional articles |
| 7 | Location of MAE biotechnology clusters and innovation centres | MAE portal from December 2026 |
| 8 | Whether Decree 263 zones admit full-scale feed or fermentation plants | Read Articles 4 to 7 of the decree in full |
| 9 | CO2 volume and purity by site | MAE list of facilities that must report emissions; company sustainability reports |
| 10 | Feed-mill capacity and shrimp and pangasius output by current province | MAE lists of certified feed facilities; NSO provincial tables |
| 11 | Offshore-wind survey areas and Mekong grid capacity; water in Khanh Hoa; status of the Da Nang and Hai Phong free trade zones | Marine spatial plan; EVN reports; People's Committee decisions |
| 12 | New provincial master plans after the 2025 mergers | Portals of Ca Mau, Vinh Long, Can Tho, Tay Ninh, Khanh Hoa and Lam Dong, 2026 to 2027 |
| 13 | Korea's FoodTech plan text; Thai and Chilean aquafeed trajectories; any ASEAN bioeconomy framework | MAFRA releases; aquaculture journals; ASEAN Secretariat |
| 14 | bioeconomy_strategies.csv row BES-003 still lists Decision 429 as current | Mark it replaced by Decision 1466 |
Disagreements between sources.
| Topic | Source A | Source B | Position taken |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rice land, 2030 | 3.56 Mha, "keep stable" (Decision 1748) | 3,252.63 thousand ha (Decision 1177) | Use 1177: later, and it adjusts the land plan |
| Renewables in primary energy, 2030 | 15 to 20% (Decision 1658) | 25 to 30% (Resolution 70) | Use Resolution 70: later and higher-ranking |
| GDP per person, 2050 | USD 27,000 to 32,000 (Resolution 81) | About USD 38,000 (Resolution 252) | Use 252, which amends 81 |
| Agricultural emissions, 2030 | 10% below 2020 (Decisions 150, 300) | 64 MtCO2e (Decision 896) | Different metrics; 896 is the binding cap |
| Power-sector cap, 2030 | 197 to 199 MtCO2e (Decision 768) | At most 170 MtCO2e (Decision 458, press summary) | Unresolved |
| Mekong hydrogen projects | About 30 kt each (FTG-17) | 24, 24, 70 and 5.3 kt (HUB-04) | Totals agree (about 120 to 123 kt); use HUB-04 |
| Ca Mau farmed shrimp, 2025 | 594,851 t (HUB-15) | 577,000 t (HUB-17) | Use 594,851 t; the gap is 3% |
Data files
national_targets_2050.csv(98 rows): official targets and directions, 2025 to 2050, with Vietnamese quote, status and relevance score.protein_strategies_benchmark.csv(23 rows): protein and feed-protein strategies abroad, with targets, money, results and lessons.foresight_methods.csv(18 rows): food-system foresight exercises, methods and lessons.bioeconomy_strategies.csv(24 rows): bioeconomy and biomanufacturing strategies in Vietnam and abroad.hub_layers.csv(92 rows): map layers (energy, hydrogen, CO2, zones, carbohydrate, residues, buyers, research) by current and former province.candidate_hubs.csv(6 rows): the six candidate hubs with assets, gaps, plays, horizon and signposts.vision_milestones.csv(22 rows): the normative milestones of chapter 19.robust_moves.csv(21 rows): the moves of chapter 20, with scores by world and triggers.signposts_2050.csv(16 rows): signposts and thresholds used as triggers.emissions_targets.csv(19 rows): official emission and methane caps.vn_energy_inputs_2050.csv(50 rows): power, hydrogen and grid inputs to 2050.- Scripts:
working-papers/wave3/spatial_hubs/hub_calc.py(Y.5.8) andworking-papers/wave3/vision_benchmarks/vis_calc.py(Y.3).
Related: Vision 2050, Robust moves, Drivers to 2050, Protein balance 2050, Scenarios 2050, O. Outlook data, G. Regulation, N. Regional, U. Futures method, X. Drivers and signals, Z. Aquafeed and feedstocks 2050, Q. Open questions, R. Disagreements
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- HUB-01 Prime Minister. Quyết định 768/QĐ-TTg phê duyệt Điều chỉnh Quy hoạch phát triển điện lực quốc gia thời kỳ 2021-2030, tầm nhìn đến năm 2050. 15 Apr 2025
- HUB-03 Ministry of Industry and Trade. Bộ Công Thương ban hành Kế hoạch triển khai Quy hoạch điện VIII điều chỉnh. 2025
- HUB-21 Báo Chính phủ. Thúc đẩy phát triển ngành công nghiệp năng lượng tái tạo, năng lượng mới. 23 Mar 2026
- FTG-27 Tạp chí Kinh tế Tài chính. Nhà máy sản xuất hydro xanh đầu tiên tại Việt Nam đang chậm tiến độ. May 2026
- FTG-17 Tạp chí Năng lượng Việt Nam. Báo cáo tình hình thực hiện Chiến lược năng lượng hydrogen ở Việt Nam. 6 Mar 2025
- INF-23 Government. Decree 263/2026/NĐ-CP on hi-tech agriculture zones. 1 Jul 2026
- HUB-10 Ministry of Agriculture and Environment portal. Bộ Nông nghiệp và Môi trường hướng tới 5 trung tâm đổi mới sáng tạo. 7 Jul 2026
- HUB-11 Báo Xây dựng. Gỡ vướng cho Khu nông nghiệp ứng dụng công nghệ cao phát triển tôm Bạc Liêu. 13 May 2026
- HUB-12 Vietnam Academy of Agricultural Sciences (VAAS). Phát huy hiệu quả các khu nông nghiệp ứng dụng công nghệ cao. 17 Apr 2023
- RGN-36 EECi. Biorefinery Pilot Plant
- FTB-17 Good Food Institute. 2026 State of the Industry report: Fermentation for meat, seafood, eggs, dairy, and ingredients. May 2026
- INF-01 FIRI, MOIT. Food Industries Research Institute (Viện Công nghiệp Thực phẩm), home page (centres and departments). undated
- INF-09 Bureau of Accreditation (BoA), home page and accredited-organisation search
- CLM-12 Minderhoud P.S.J., Coumou L., Erkens G., Middelkoop H., Stouthamer E.. Mekong delta much lower than previously assumed in sea-level rise impact assessments. 2019
- CLM-21 Prime Minister. Decision 287/QD-TTg approving the Mekong Delta regional plan 2021 to 2030, vision 2050. 28 Feb 2022
- CLM-20 Nguyen A.L., Dang V.H., Bosma R.H., Verreth J.A.J., Leemans R., De Silva S.S.. Simulated impacts of climate change on current farming locations of striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. 2014
- FTG-01 Fasihi, M., Jouzi, F., Tervasmaki, P., et al.. Global potential of sustainable single-cell protein based on variable renewable electricity. 2025
- REG2-01 MAE. Thông tư 16/2026/TT-BNNMT quản lý giống thủy sản, thức ăn thủy sản, sản phẩm xử lý môi trường nuôi trồng thủy sản. 9 Mar 2026
- VIS-35 Bock A.-K., Bontoux L.. Food safety and nutrition: how to prepare for a challenging future? New approaches for using scenarios for policy-making. 2017
- VIS-36 Riera A., Duluins O., Antier C., Baret P.V.. Which types of quantitative foresight scenarios to frame the future of food systems? A review. 2025
- QNT-01 OECD and FAO. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, data via the OECD SDMX API, dataflow OECD.TAD.ATM DSD_AGR@DF_OUTLOOK_2026_2035 version 1.1. June 2026
- NGF-01 Cuong, T.T., Le, H.A., Khai, N.M. and others. Renewable energy from biomass surplus resource: potential of power generation from rice straw in Vietnam. 2021
- AQF-19 Vo, L.L.G., Galkanda-Arachchige, H.S.C., Iassonova, D.R. and Davis, D.A.. Efficacy of modified canola oil to replace fish oil in practical diets of Pacific white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei. 2021
- AQF-23 Veramaris. Veramaris opens US$200m facility for EPA and DHA omega-3 algal oil. 10 Jul 2019
- AQF-24 Feed Strategy. Plant-based fish oil alternatives growing fast in aquafeed. 1 Jun 2021
- FTB-42 BIOTEC (NSTDA, Thailand). The Launch of Bio Base Asia Pilot Plant (BBAPP) Joint Press Conference. 29 Mar 2022
- NGF-14 European Union. Regulation (EC) No 767/2009 on the placing on the market and use of feed, consolidated text of 26 Dec 2018, Annex III Chapter 1 and footnote 9. 26 Dec 2018
- AQF-16 Tocher, D.R., Betancor, M.B., Sprague, M., Olsen, R.E. and Napier, J.A.. Omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, EPA and DHA: bridging the gap between supply and demand. 2019
- ECF-39 Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) portal. Phát triển công nghệ sinh học: Bài toán nhân lực từ 'điểm nghẽn' đến động lực đột phá. 6 Apr 2026
- REG-63 Singapore Food Agency. Novel Food. 27 Aug 2026
- FTG-14 OpenAlex query
- FTB-38 Green Queen. Ayana Bio, Zenfold Buy Meati Foods's Fermentation Assets to Scale Plant Cell Culture Platform in India. 18 Sep 2026
- FTB-18 Vireo Advisors. Developments in Precision fermentation, GRAS regulation, and other FDA initiatives. 27 Jan 2025
- FTB-41 Green Queen. TurtleTree Earns First US FDA Approval for Cow-Free Lactoferrin Protein. 2025
- NGF-11 ChiniMandi. India's first 2G ethanol plant at Panipat costs INR 984 crore, government tells Lok Sabha. 2026
- NGF-33 C&EN. Clariant is latest firm to pull out of cellulosic ethanol. December 2023
- MAC-24 Tuoi Tre. Gia thuc an chan nuoi tang 14%, khuyen cao khong tang dan vi cung vuot cau. 24 Apr 2026
- COST-33 CafeF. Cang thang Trung Dong: Phan bon trong nuoc tang, nong san lai giam sau. 7 Apr 2026