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T. Sources

All 1,275 sources behind the report (806 in edition 1.0 and 469 added by the futures round of edition 1.1), grouped by the research stream that found them. Each citation code in the text links here and to sources.csv.

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Nội dung trang này bằng tiếng Anh. Đọc bản tóm tắt tiếng Việt

Trong trang này
  1. MAC: Protein economy and feed (wave 1) (45)
  2. FS: Feedstocks (wave 1) (57)
  3. IND: Industrial capacity (wave 1) (67)
  4. ECO: Companies and ecosystem (wave 1) (73)
  5. REG: Regulation (wave 1) (63)
  6. RD: Research and talent (wave 1) (65)
  7. CAP: Capital (wave 1) (74)
  8. RGN: Regional position (wave 1) (60)
  9. COST: Costs (wave 1) (56)
  10. FORM: Retail audit and formulation (wave 1) (39)
  11. SCI: Science (wave 2) (48)
  12. REG2: Regulation, second pass (wave 2) (28)
  13. FM: Feed market (wave 2) (45)
  14. GT: Geography, institutions and outlook (wave 2) (16)
  15. VCO: Company verification (wave 2) (31)
  16. INF: Infrastructure and talent (wave 2) (33)
  17. BIB: Bibliometrics (wave 2) (6)
  18. FTG: Frontier technology: gas fermentation and power-to-protein (wave 3) (35)
  19. FTB: Frontier technology: biology and AI (wave 3) (51)
  20. CLM: Climate (wave 3) (43)
  21. QNT: Protein and feed balance model (wave 3) (16)
  22. GEO: Geopolitics, trade and macro drivers (wave 3) (48)
  23. ECF: Economics and policy futures (wave 3) (46)
  24. HSC: Horizon scan and bibliometrics (wave 3) (37)
  25. NTS: National targets (wave 3) (38)
  26. NGF: Next-generation feedstocks (wave 4) (40)
  27. AQF: Aquaculture and aquafeed futures (wave 4) (36)
  28. HUB: Spatial hubs (wave 4) (29)
  29. VIS: Vision benchmarks and foresight practice (wave 5) (50)

Every citation code in the report, such as 1, resolves to an entry below and to a row in sources.csv, which also records the source type, date, URL or DOI, access date and the research note that used it. Web sources were accessed in September 2026. Citations are given as recorded by the research streams; some sources appear under more than one code because two streams used them independently.

Source typeEdition 1.0 (waves 1 and 2)Futures round (waves 3 to 5)Total
peer-reviewed175134309
press180107287
gov/statistics12495219
company1337140
law7850128
other4954103
database261036
advocacy27835
market-research14418
All8064691275

What the evidence rests on

1,275 sources by type and research wave (waves 1 and 2: edition 1.0; waves 3 to 5: edition 1.1)

What the evidence rests onBars: 309 peer-reviewed, 287 press, 219 government or statistics, 140 company and 128 legal sources, among others, across five research waves.Wave 1Wave 2Wave 3Wave 4Wave 5050100150200250300350Number of sources (total 1,275)peer-reviewedpeer-reviewed, Wave 1: 97 sources All waves: 309 sources97peer-reviewed, Wave 2: 78 sources All waves: 309 sources78peer-reviewed, Wave 3: 89 sources All waves: 309 sources89peer-reviewed, Wave 4: 34 sources All waves: 309 sourcespeer-reviewed, Wave 5: 11 sources All waves: 309 sources309presspress, Wave 1: 172 sources All waves: 287 sources172press, Wave 2: 8 sources All waves: 287 sourcespress, Wave 3: 67 sources All waves: 287 sources67press, Wave 4: 35 sources All waves: 287 sourcespress, Wave 5: 5 sources All waves: 287 sources287gov/statisticsgov/statistics, Wave 1: 93 sources All waves: 219 sources93gov/statistics, Wave 2: 31 sources All waves: 219 sources31gov/statistics, Wave 3: 55 sources All waves: 219 sources55gov/statistics, Wave 4: 14 sources All waves: 219 sourcesgov/statistics, Wave 5: 26 sources All waves: 219 sources26219companycompany, Wave 1: 99 sources All waves: 140 sources99company, Wave 2: 34 sources All waves: 140 sources34company, Wave 3: 4 sources All waves: 140 sourcescompany, Wave 4: 3 sources All waves: 140 sources140lawlaw, Wave 1: 47 sources All waves: 128 sources47law, Wave 2: 31 sources All waves: 128 sources31law, Wave 3: 43 sources All waves: 128 sources43law, Wave 4: 7 sources All waves: 128 sources128otherother, Wave 1: 41 sources All waves: 103 sources41other, Wave 2: 8 sources All waves: 103 sourcesother, Wave 3: 35 sources All waves: 103 sources35other, Wave 4: 12 sources All waves: 103 sourcesother, Wave 5: 7 sources All waves: 103 sources103databasedatabase, Wave 1: 11 sources All waves: 36 sourcesdatabase, Wave 2: 15 sources All waves: 36 sourcesdatabase, Wave 3: 10 sources All waves: 36 sources36advocacyadvocacy, Wave 1: 25 sources All waves: 35 sources25advocacy, Wave 2: 2 sources All waves: 35 sourcesadvocacy, Wave 3: 7 sources All waves: 35 sourcesadvocacy, Wave 5: 1 sources All waves: 35 sources35market-researchmarket-research, Wave 1: 14 sources All waves: 18 sourcesmarket-research, Wave 3: 4 sources All waves: 18 sources18

Bằng chứng:

Xem số liệuẨn số liệu
What the evidence rests on
Source typeWave 1Wave 2Wave 3Wave 4Wave 5Total
peer-reviewed9778893411309
press172867355287
gov/statistics9331551426219
company9934430140
law47314370128
other41835127103
database1115100036
advocacy25270135
market-research14040018

MAC: Protein economy and feed (wave 1) (45)

FS: Feedstocks (wave 1) (57)

IND: Industrial capacity (wave 1) (67)

ECO: Companies and ecosystem (wave 1) (73)

REG: Regulation (wave 1) (63)

RD: Research and talent (wave 1) (65)

  • RD-01. scite.ai literature database. 30 searches run by the RND agent on 2026-09-23 (query log in Appendix A). Bibliographic database of peer-reviewed and preprint records. Supports all bibliometric counts and paper-level findings.
  • RD-02. GFI, "Research Grant Program", https://gfi.org/researchgrants/. Funder page (advocacy/philanthropy). Supports USD 27M+, 141 grants since 2019, 26 countries, not accepting submissions.
  • RD-03. GFI, "Grants" database page, https://gfi.org/grants. Funder page. Supports the observation that no Southeast Asian grantee was listed on the fetched page.
  • RD-04. ACIAR, "Vietnam" country page, https://www.aciar.gov.au/country/vietnam. Government donor. Supports AUD 5.4M FY2025-26, 23 active projects and the project list.
  • RD-05. Vingroup Innovation Foundation, https://vinif.org/en/ (also /en/about-us/). Private foundation. Supports programme list and 2018-2023 metrics.
  • RD-06. NAFOSTED English site, https://nafosted.gov.vn/en/. Government funder. Supports funding categories.
  • RD-07. Food Industries Research Institute, https://firi.vn. Government institute. Supports structure, MOIT parentage, founding date, centres and culture collection.
  • RD-08. Law on Science, Technology and Innovation No. 93/2025/QH15, thuvienphapluat.vn, https://thuvienphapluat.vn/van-ban/Linh-vuc-khac/Luat-Khoa-hoc-Cong-nghe-va-Doi-moi-sang-tao-2025-so-93-2025-QH15-581164.aspx (plus the site search listing). Law. Supports issue date and articles on sandbox, risk exemption and funds (via machine summary).
  • RD-09. GFI APAC, "Three APAC countries with the right ingredients to dominate biomanufacturing" (October 2025), https://gfi-apac.org/three-apac-countries-with-the-right-ingredients-to-dominate-biomanufacturing/. Advocacy. Supports that the GFI APAC/Hawkwood "Where to Build" report cites Vietnam's incentives and bioeconomy strategy but also feedstock limits and regulatory immaturity.
  • RD-10. Can Tho University, College of Aquaculture and Fisheries, https://caf.ctu.edu.vn. University. Supports unit structure, JICA-funded work and Thai partners.
  • RD-11. JST SATREPS, project list by country, https://www.jst.go.jp/global/english/kadai/by-country/index.html. Government donor. Supports 203 projects in 60 countries as of April 2026.
  • RD-12. Scite acknowledgement analysis. Queries "NAFOSTED ... AND (protein OR fermentation ...)" (255 records) and "VINIF ... AND (protein OR food ...)" (2,704 records), 2026-09-23. Bibliographic. Supports funder prevalence.
  • RD-13. AltProtein Vietnam prior drafts (00-prior-leads.md; project doc fermentation-wave-1-pack.md). Internal leads, not evidence. Used only in the disagreements log.
  • RD-20. Nguyen D.B. et al. (2021). Arthrospira production in Vietnam: current status and prospects. Bioresource Technology Reports 15:100803. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biteb.2021.100803. Peer-reviewed (VNUA).
  • RD-21. Dang D.H. et al. (2023). Transcriptome analysis of Spirulina platensis at different salinity and nutrient compositions for sustainable cultivation in Vietnam. Sustainability 15:11906. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511906. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-22. Nguyen T.-T. et al. (2024). Rice-based distillers' dried grains from bio-ethanol production, a potential source of protein for food application. Research Square preprint. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3171967/v1. Preprint.
  • RD-23. Vuong M.-D. et al. (2025). Functional characterization of protein from rice-based ethanol by-products for food industry use. Asia-Pacific Journal of Chemical Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1002/apj.70043. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-24. Doan N.T.T., Lai Q.D. (2021). Ultrafiltration for recovery of rice protein: fouling analysis and technical assessment. Innovative Food Science & Emerging Technologies. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifset.2021.102692. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-25. Nguyen T.M.P. et al. (2016). Preparation of protein isolated from rice bran. Tap chi Sinh hoc. https://doi.org/10.15625/0866-7160/v37n4.7091. Peer-reviewed (domestic).
  • RD-26. Le T.K.Y. et al. (2024). Meat-reduced sausage substituted with germinated mung bean flour. International Journal of Food Science & Technology. https://doi.org/10.1111/ijfs.17089. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-27. Nguyen N.H.K. et al. (2025). Influence of mangosteen peel extract on ... soy-based burgers. Food Technology and Biotechnology 63(1). https://doi.org/10.17113/ftb.63.01.25.8629. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-28. Nguyen T.H.T., Dinh T.H. (2016). Isolation of a methane-oxidizing bacterium for the study on single cell protein production from methane. Vietnam Journal of Biotechnology 14(3). https://doi.org/10.15625/1811-4989/14/3/9876. Peer-reviewed (domestic).
  • RD-29. Doan C.C. (2025). Improving nutrition facts of cassava and soybean residue through solid-state fermentation by Pleurotus ostreatus mycelium. Preprints.org. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202503.1319.v1. Preprint.
  • RD-30. Ho K.N. et al. (2023). Bamboo cellulose based single cell protein and nanocellulose ... E3S Web of Conferences 420:09003. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202342009003. Retracted (editorial notice 2023). Cited only as retracted.
  • RD-31. Nguyen T.T.N. (2018). Influences of technological hydrolysis condition on nucleic acid content of spent brewer's yeast hydrolysate. Vietnam Journal of Science and Technology 55(5A). https://doi.org/10.15625/2525-2518/55/5a/12192. Peer-reviewed (domestic).
  • RD-32. Nguyen M.Q. et al. (2024). Investigation of consumer insights and development of alternative protein-rich products from alcoholic beverage byproducts. JST: Engineering and Technology for Sustainable Development (HUST). https://doi.org/10.51316/jst.178.etsd.2024.34.5.4. Peer-reviewed (domestic).
  • RD-33. Thai H.-D. et al. (2021). Development of a new Agrobacterium-mediated transformation system based on a dual auxotrophic approach in Aspergillus oryzae. World J Microbiol Biotechnol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11274-021-03060-z. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-34. Trinh M.T. et al. (2024). Efficient generation of uridine/uracil auxotrophic mutants in homokaryotic Cordyceps militaris strains for constructing a food-grade expression platform. Mycoscience. https://doi.org/10.47371/mycosci.2024.10.003. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-35. Chau Q.C. et al. (2025). Development of a Pichia pastoris strain for secretory production of recombinant alkaline phytase. Vietnam Journal of Biotechnology. https://doi.org/10.15625/vjbt-21940. Peer-reviewed (domestic).
  • RD-36. Le H.K. et al. (2020). Secretory expression of the recombinant FGF-2 protein in Pichia pastoris carrying multiple copies of target gene. Science and Technology Development Journal. https://doi.org/10.32508/stdj.v23i2.1746. Peer-reviewed (domestic).
  • RD-37. Tran L.H. et al. (2021). Glycerol-methanol and sorbitol-methanol mixed feed strategies for recombinant hPDGF-BB production in Pichia pastoris. STDJ Engineering and Technology. https://doi.org/10.32508/stdjet.v4i3.858. Peer-reviewed (domestic).
  • RD-38. Pham T. et al. (2020). Heterologous expression of human KGF/FGF7 in Pichia pastoris. STDJ Natural Sciences. https://doi.org/10.32508/stdjns.v4i3.900. Peer-reviewed (domestic).
  • RD-39. Nguyen T.L. et al. (2022). Optimization of human umbilical cord blood-derived MSC isolation and culture methods in serum- and xeno-free conditions. Stem Cell Research & Therapy. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13287-021-02694-y. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-40. Le M.H. et al. (2021). Differential development of umbilical cord-derived MSCs during long-term maintenance in FBS-supplemented and xeno- and serum-free media. Cellular Reprogramming. https://doi.org/10.1089/cell.2021.0050. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-41. Pham P.V., Vu N.B. (2016). In vitro expansion of mesenchymal stem cells for clinical use. Progress in Stem Cell. https://doi.org/10.15419/psc.v3i02.123. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-42. Bui L.Q.N. et al. (2019). Isolation of female germline stem cells from porcine ovarian tissue and differentiation into oocyte-like cells. Journal of Reproduction and Development. https://doi.org/10.1262/jrd.2019-050. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-43. Nguyen X.M.H., Nguyen T.K.A. (2024). From lab to table: food safety regulations for cell-cultured meat in the EU and Singapore, implications for Vietnam. Vietnamese Journal of Legal Sciences. https://doi.org/10.2478/vjls-2024-0013. Peer-reviewed (law).
  • RD-44. Tran N.B.T. et al. (2022). Morphological variation, chromosome number and DNA barcoding of giant duckweed (Spirodela polyrhiza) in Vietnam. CTU Journal of Science. https://doi.org/10.22144/ctu.jen.2022.029. Peer-reviewed (domestic).
  • RD-45. Dinh T.T.U. et al. (2020). Nutrient removal by duckweed from anaerobically treated swine wastewater in lab-scale stabilization ponds in Vietnam. Science of the Total Environment. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137854. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-46. Nguyen N.V. et al. (2018). Utilization of fermented soybean meal for fishmeal substitution in diets of Pacific white shrimp. Aquaculture Nutrition. https://doi.org/10.1111/anu.12648. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-47. Tran M.P. et al. (2016). Effects of replacing fish meal with soya protein concentrate ... snakehead, Channa striata. Aquaculture Research. https://doi.org/10.1111/are.13147. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-48. Nguyen H.Y.N. et al. (2019). Spent brewer's yeast as a replacement for fishmeal in diets for giant freshwater prawn. Aquaculture Nutrition. https://doi.org/10.1111/anu.12915. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-49. Nguyen H.Y.N. et al. (2024). Gradual replacement of soybean meal with brewer's yeast in Nile tilapia diet. Aquaculture Journal. https://doi.org/10.3390/aquacj4040019. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-50. Nguyen T.N.A. et al. (2018). Partial replacement of fishmeal protein with green seaweed (Cladophora) protein ... black tiger shrimp postlarvae. Journal of Applied Phycology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10811-018-1457-7. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-51. Nguyen T.N.A. et al. (2023). Evaluating Artemia biomass and gut weed (Ulva intestinalis) meal as dietary protein for P. monodon postlarvae. Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejar.2022.11.003. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-52. Nguyen H.T. et al. (2022). Protein recovery of Tra catfish protein-rich side streams by the pH-shift method. Foods 11:1531. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11111531. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-53. Siddik M.A.B. et al. (2021). Dietary supplementation of fish protein hydrolysate in high plant protein diets ... barramundi. Aquaculture Nutrition. https://doi.org/10.1111/anu.13404. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-54. Nguyen N.T., Tran N.H. (2025). Black soldier fly larvae meal as a sustainable alternative to fishmeal in juvenile swamp eel diets. Aquaculture Journal 5:7. https://doi.org/10.3390/aquacj5010007. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-55. Hoang N.M. et al. (2024). Effect of inclusion of fresh or dried black soldier fly larvae in diets on snakehead fish. Israeli Journal of Aquaculture - Bamidgeh. https://doi.org/10.46989/001c.92338. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-56. Waché Y. et al. (2018). Prospects for food fermentation in South-East Asia: Tropical Fermentation and Biotechnology Network at the end of the AsiFood Erasmus+ project. Frontiers in Microbiology. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2018.02278. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-57. Deolu-Ajayi A.O. et al. (2022). Seaweed cultivation in Vietnam for livestock methane reduction: a Top Sector Agri & Food SMP report. Wageningen Research. https://doi.org/10.18174/566553. Research report.
  • RD-58. Tran-Tu L.C. et al. (2017). Effect of ingredient particle sizes and dietary viscosity on digestion and faecal waste of striped catfish. Aquaculture Nutrition. https://doi.org/10.1111/anu.12632. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-59. Stadtlander T. et al. (2023). Partial replacement of fishmeal with duckweed (Spirodela polyrhiza) in feed for Eurasian perch and rainbow trout. Aquaculture Research. https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/6680943 (plus 8 other Stadtlander duckweed records in Scite, none Vietnamese). Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-60. Brandt S. et al. (2018). A unique fungal strain collection from Vietnam characterized for high performance degraders of bioecological important biopolymers and lipids. PLOS ONE. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0202695. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-61. Le T.H.Y. et al. (2025). Quality evaluation of Vietnam traditional soy sauce concerning nutritional composition and aflatoxin criteria. Vietnam Journal of Food Control. https://doi.org/10.47866/2615-9252/vjfc.4588. Peer-reviewed (domestic).
  • RD-62. Luu T.N. et al. (2020). Isolation and characterization of two microalgal isolates from Vietnam with potential for food, feed and biodiesel production. Energies. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13040898. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-63. Nguyen H. et al. (2024). Heterologous expression of pediocin PA-1 in Pichia pastoris ... pork bologna preservation. Brazilian Journal of Microbiology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42770-024-01388-w. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-64. Huynh N.-H.T. et al. (2023). Circular economy approach: cultivating grey oyster mushroom using cassava peel waste from starch production. E3S Web of Conferences. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202340501009. Conference paper.
  • RD-65. Nguyen T.N.G., Tran V.K. (2025). Sustainable valorization of Pleurotus pulmonarius via green dual-enzyme technology ... functional protein hydrolysates. Food Chemistry: X. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fochx.2025.103310. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-66. Tran Thi Ha M.K. et al. (2026). Plant-based fish analogues: advances in formulation, processing, nutrition and market dynamics. Journal of Food Process Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfpe.70365. Peer-reviewed review.
  • RD-67. Nguyen T.H. et al. (2019). Manufacturing process, in vivo and in vitro digestibility assessment of an enteral feeding product. Processes 7:347. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr7060347. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-68. Tran M.P. et al. (2015). Development of formulated diets for snakehead: can phytase and taurine supplementation increase use of soybean meal to replace fish meal? Aquaculture. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2015.06.020. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-69. Nguyen T.T.H. et al. (2022). Enhancement of antioxidant activity ... of fermented soybean using ergothioneine biosynthesized by Aspergillus oryzae. Legume Science. https://doi.org/10.1002/leg3.165. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-70. Nguyen N.T. et al. (2024). Genetic diversity of black soldier flies in Vietnam based on DNA COI sequence. Biodiversitas 24. https://doi.org/10.13057/biodiv/d241235. Peer-reviewed.
  • RD-71. Hoang P.T.N. et al. (2020). Chromosome-scale genome assembly for the duckweed Spirodela intermedia. Scientific Reports. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75728-9. Peer-reviewed.

CAP: Capital (wave 1) (74)

RGN: Regional position (wave 1) (60)

COST: Costs (wave 1) (56)

FORM: Retail audit and formulation (wave 1) (39)

SCI: Science (wave 2) (48)

REG2: Regulation, second pass (wave 2) (28)

FM: Feed market (wave 2) (45)

  • FM-01. World Bank. "Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet)", September 2026 (released 2 Sep 2026). https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Pink-Sheet-September-2026.pdf . Accessed 2026-09-23. Fishmeal, SBM, soybeans, maize, urea, sugar: annual 2023 to 2025, quarterly, Jun to Aug 2026. Type: statistics.
  • FM-02. World Bank commodity series via IndexMundi. "Fishmeal, Peru Fish meal/pellets 65% protein, CIF, USD per metric ton", monthly Jan 2020 to Mar 2026. https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=fish-meal&months=120 . Accessed 2026-09-23. Monthly series; annual means match FM-01. Type: statistics (compiled).
  • FM-03. World Bank. "Commodity Markets" page. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets . Accessed 2026-09-23. Links to CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx (binary, not readable by the fetch tool) and the Pink Sheet. Type: statistics.
  • FM-04. Mardiana. "Aquafeeds in 2025: Disrupted by tariffs." Aqua Culture Asia Pacific, 30 Jun 2026. https://aquaasiapac.com/2026/06/30/aquafeeds-in-2025-disrupted-by-tariffs/ . Accessed 2026-09-23. Vietnam aquafeed volumes, top shrimp feed mills, 2025 feed price cuts, UPV fishmeal quote, ASC. Type: trade press (same as MAC-06, re-read).
  • FM-05. Naylor, R. L., Hardy, R. W., Buschmann, A. H., et al. (2021). "A 20-year retrospective review of global aquaculture." Nature 591: 551-563. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03308-6 . Accessed 2026-09-23 via Scite excerpts. Freshwater fishmeal 1% to 2%; marine and crustacean rates cut by one-half to two-thirds. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-06. Hua, K., Cobcroft, J. M., Cole, A., et al. (2019). "The future of aquatic protein: implications for protein sources in aquaculture diets." One Earth 1(3): 316-329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.10.018 . Accessed via Scite. Fishmeal 4.5 Mt (2016), 69% to aquafeed; aquafeed 49.7 Mt (2015) to 87.1 Mt (2025 projected). Type: peer-reviewed review.
  • FM-07. Salin, K. R., Arun, V. V., Mohanakumaran Nair, C., Tidwell, J. H. (2018), as cited in "Chemoattractants: their essentiality and efficacy in shrimp aquaculture", Indian Journal of Fisheries 68(1) (2021). https://doi.org/10.21077/ijf.2021.68.1.95994-20 . Not read by me; taken from wave 1 MAC-41. Shrimp fishmeal 19% to 40% (2000), 11% to 23% (2014), about 6% (2025 projected). Type: peer-reviewed (secondary citation).
  • FM-08. Xie, S., Niu, J., Zhou, W., et al. (2018). "Developing a low fishmeal diet for juvenile Pacific white shrimp, Litopenaeus vannamei, using the nutritional value of FM as the reference profile." Aquaculture Nutrition 24(4): 1184-1197. https://doi.org/10.1111/anu.12657 . Abstract. Fishmeal 250 to 100 g/kg without growth loss. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-09. Han, D., Shan, X., Zhang, W., et al. (2016). "A revisit to fishmeal usage and associated consequences in Chinese aquaculture." Reviews in Aquaculture 10(2): 493-507. https://doi.org/10.1111/raq.12183 . Abstract and excerpts. China fishmeal imports steady at 1.0 to 1.5 Mt while aquafeed grew to 19 Mt (2014). Type: peer-reviewed. (Background; not used in tables.)
  • FM-10. Tap chi Thuy san Viet Nam. "Nhieu doanh nghiep dong loat tang gia thuc an thuy san" (5 Jun 2026). https://thuysanvietnam.com.vn/nhieu-doanh-nghiep-dong-loat-tang-gia-thuc-an-thuy-san/ . Accessed 2026-09-23. June 2026 shrimp feed price increases by company; feed 50% to 60% of production cost. Type: trade press.
  • FM-11. Tap chi Thuy san Viet Nam. "Co hoi va thach thuc khi gia ca tra tang manh" (3 Dec 2024). https://thuysanvietnam.com.vn/co-hoi-va-thach-thuc-khi-gia-ca-tra-tang-manh/ . Accessed 2026-09-23. Pangasius farm-gate VND 26,500 to 30,000/kg. Type: trade press.
  • FM-12. CK Vietnam Group / V-Group Vietnam. "Mycoprotein" product page. https://ckvietnam.com.vn/mycoprotein-36.html . Accessed 2026-09-23. Chinese glutamic-acid fermentation biomass, at least 70% CP; uses. Type: company.
  • FM-13. Calysseo. Company website. https://www.calysseo.com/ . Accessed 2026-09-23. Adisseo-Calysta JV; Changshou (China) 20 kt/yr, 2 x 10 kt fermenters; Saudi 100 kt ambition. Type: company.
  • FM-14. "Evaluation of six novel protein sources on apparent digestibility in Pacific white shrimp, Litopenaeus vannamei." Aquaculture Nutrition (2022). https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/8225273 . Abstract. CAP, methanotroph meal, BSF, mealworm, Chlorella, cottonseed protein. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-15. Wang, J., Chen, L., Xu, J., et al. (2022). "C1 gas protein: a potential protein substitute for advancing aquaculture sustainability." Reviews in Aquaculture 15(3): 1179-1197. https://doi.org/10.1111/raq.12707 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed review.
  • FM-16. "A natural gas fermentation bacterial meal (FeedKind) as a functional alternative ingredient for fishmeal in diet of largemouth bass." Antioxidants 11(8): 1479 (2022). https://doi.org/10.3390/antiox11081479 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-17. "Evaluation of methanotroph (Methylococcus capsulatus, Bath) bacteria meal (FeedKind) as an alternative protein source for juvenile black sea bream." Frontiers in Marine Science (2021). https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.778301 . Abstract; FeedKind 75.14% CP. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-18. "Substituting fish meal with a bacteria protein (Clostridium autoethanogenum protein) derived from industrial-scale gas fermentation: effects on growth ... in large yellow croakers." Fishes 7(5): 228 (2022). https://doi.org/10.3390/fishes7050228 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-19. "Replacement of fishmeal with a microbial single-cell protein induced enteropathy and poor growth outcomes in barramundi (Lates calcarifer) fry." Journal of Fish Diseases (2024). https://doi.org/10.1111/jfd.13985 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-20. "Effects of dietary Clostridium autoethanogenum protein on the growth, disease resistance, intestinal digestion, immunity and microbiota structure of Litopenaeus vannamei..." Frontiers in Immunology (2022). https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2022.1034994 . Abstract. Also noted: Animal Nutrition (2025) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aninu.2025.04.010 (title only). Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-21. "Dietary effect of Clostridium autoethanogenum protein on growth, intestinal histology and flesh lipid metabolism of largemouth bass." Metabolites 12(11): 1088 (2022). https://doi.org/10.3390/metabo12111088 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-22. "Effects of dietary protein substitution of fishmeal with black soldier fly larval meal on growth and physiological responses of juvenile striped catfish." Aquaculture Research (2022). https://doi.org/10.1111/are.15739 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-23. "Effects of substituting the two-spotted cricket (Gryllus bimaculatus) meal for fish meal on growth performances and digestibility of striped snakehead." Life 13(2): 594 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3390/life13020594 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-24. "The use of cricket (Gryllus bimaculatus) meal as protein source for snakehead fish (Channa striata)." IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1118: 012020 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1118/1/012020 . Abstract. Type: conference paper.
  • FM-25. "Evaluation of dietary inclusion of black soldier fly (Hermetia illucens) larvae on fish production performance: a meta-analysis." Journal of Insects as Food and Feed (2022). https://doi.org/10.3920/jiff2021.0159 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed meta-analysis.
  • FM-26. "Replacing fish meal with defatted insect meal (yellow mealworm Tenebrio molitor) improves the growth and immunity of Pacific white shrimp." Animals 9(5): 258 (2019). https://doi.org/10.3390/ani9050258 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed (company-linked product).
  • FM-27. "Effect of black soldier fly (Hermetia illucens) larvae meal on lipid and glucose metabolism of Pacific white shrimp." British Journal of Nutrition (2021). https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007114521004670 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-28. "Replacement of commercial feed with fresh black soldier fly larvae in Pacific white shrimp." Aquaculture Nutrition (2022). https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/9130400 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-29. "Sensory evaluation of Pacific white shrimp fed with different levels of soy protein concentrate in replacement of fish meal." Acta Veterinaria Brasilica 17(1) (2023). https://doi.org/10.21708/avb.2023.17.1.11410 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-30. "Replacement of fish meal with two fermented soybean meals in diets for rainbow trout." Aquaculture Nutrition (2019). https://doi.org/10.1111/anu.12965 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-31. "Mitigating the impact of winter temperatures on striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) using functional feed additives." Journal of the World Aquaculture Society (2023). https://doi.org/10.1111/jwas.13010 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-32. "Factors affecting yeast digestibility and immunostimulation in aquatic animals." Animals 14(19): 2851 (2024). https://doi.org/10.3390/ani14192851 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed review.
  • FM-33. "Effects of dietary chenodeoxycholic acid supplementation in a low fishmeal diet containing Clostridium autoethanogenum protein on growth ... of Litopenaeus vannamei." Animals 13(13): 2109 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13132109 . Abstract; control diet 25% fishmeal. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-34. "Supplemental effects of Haematococcus pluvialis in a low-fish meal diet for Litopenaeus vannamei at varying temperatures." Frontiers in Immunology (2024). https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2024.1501753 . Abstract; control 20% fishmeal, low-fishmeal 10%. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-35. "The growing role of trimmings and their origins in global fishmeal production and trade." Environmental Research: Food Systems (2026). https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601x/ae38e4 . Excerpts; aquaculture uses about 87% (about 4 Mt/yr) of fishmeal, citing FAO 2024. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-36. China SBM policy, secondary: (a) "Dynamic changes in amino acid release patterns of different plant protein sources during in vitro digestion..." Animals 15(21): 3094 (2025), https://doi.org/10.3390/ani15213094 (SBM use in Chinese feed -8.0% in 2024 after the reduction action); (b) "Rapid detection of protein content in fuzzy cottonseeds..." Processes 13(10): 3221 (2025), https://doi.org/10.3390/pr13103221 (names MARA's "Three-Year Action Plan" for SBM reduction). Excerpts only. Type: peer-reviewed (secondary for policy).
  • FM-37. WITS (World Bank) / UN Comtrade. Vietnam imports of HS 230120 by partner, 2023. https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/VNM/year/2023/tradeflow/Imports/partner/ALL/product/230120 . Accessed 2026-09-23. Type: statistics.
  • FM-38. WITS (World Bank) / UN Comtrade. Vietnam exports of HS 230120 by partner, 2023. https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/VNM/year/2023/tradeflow/Exports/partner/ALL/product/230120 . Accessed 2026-09-23. Type: statistics.
  • FM-39. "Evaluation of feed utilization and growth performance of juvenile striped catfish Pangasianodon hypophthalmus fed diets with varying inclusion levels of corn gluten meal." Aquaculture Nutrition (2012). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2095.2012.00953.x . Abstract and excerpts. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-40. "Growth performance of juvenile kuruma shrimp, Marsupenaeus japonicus, fed diets replacing fishmeal with soybean meal." Aquaculture Research (2013). https://doi.org/10.1111/are.12201 . Excerpt citing Lim and Dominy: commercial shrimp feeds 25% to 50% fishmeal. Type: peer-reviewed (dated).
  • FM-41. Snakehead and BSF larvae: "Effect of inclusion of fresh or dried black soldier fly larvae in diets on snakehead fish's growth performance..." Israeli Journal of Aquaculture - Bamidgeh (2024). https://doi.org/10.46989/001c.92338 . Abstract: feed is 50% to 60% of snakehead production cost. Type: peer-reviewed. (Country not verified.)
  • FM-42. Cottrell, R. S., Metian, M., Froehlich, H. E., et al. (2021). "Time to rethink trophic levels in aquaculture policy." Reviews in Aquaculture 13(3): 1583-1593. https://doi.org/10.1111/raq.12535 . Excerpts; confirms Tacon and Metian (2008, 2015) as the standard inclusion dataset. Type: peer-reviewed. (Background.)
  • FM-43. Jannathulla, R., et al. (2019). "Fishmeal availability in the scenarios of climate change..." Aquaculture Research 50(12): 3493-3506. https://doi.org/10.1111/are.14324 . Abstract: fishmeal USD 452/t (2000) to USD 1,596.54/t (2018). Type: peer-reviewed. (Long-run price context.)
  • FM-44. Boyd, C. E., et al. (2022). "The contribution of fisheries and aquaculture to the global protein supply." Food Security. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-021-01246-9 . Excerpts: average fishmeal inclusion 5.8% in fed aquaculture (2017, from Naylor data); by-product fishmeal yields. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FM-45. "Palatability enhancement potential of Hermetia illucens larvae protein hydrolysate in Litopenaeus vannamei diets." Molecules 26(6): 1582 (2021). https://doi.org/10.3390/molecules26061582 . Abstract. Type: peer-reviewed.

GT: Geography, institutions and outlook (wave 2) (16)

VCO: Company verification (wave 2) (31)

INF: Infrastructure and talent (wave 2) (33)

BIB: Bibliometrics (wave 2) (6)

  • BIB-01. OpenAIRE Graph API v1, researchProducts endpoint. OpenAIRE AMKE. https://api.openaire.eu/graph/v1/researchProducts. Accessed 2026-09-23, 16:00 to 16:40 UTC. Used for all counts and all record lists. Exact URLs are in biblio_counts.csv (query_url column) and results in biblio_raw_query_log.txt. Type: open bibliographic database.
  • BIB-02. "Authentication", OpenAlex developer guide. OurResearch / OpenAlex. https://developers.openalex.org/guides/authentication. Accessed 2026-09-23. Supports the no-key budget of USD 0.10 per day and the free-key budget of USD 1 per day. Type: documentation.
  • BIB-03. OpenAlex API, works endpoint. https://api.openalex.org/works. Attempted 2026-09-23 at 15:52 to 15:58 UTC with 4 different queries, all HTTP 429. Evidence of the access failure only. Type: bibliographic database.
  • BIB-04. Europe PMC REST search. EMBL-EBI. https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/search. Attempted 2026-09-23 and refused by the fetch proxy (HTTP 429). Not used. Type: bibliographic database.
  • BIB-05. Scite search_literature test query: '"cultured meat" OR "cultivated meat" OR "cell-based meat"', affiliation "Thailand", from 2015. Returned a total of 1 (10.3390/biology15030291, 2026). Scite, accessed 2026-09-23. Supports the method finding. Type: bibliographic database. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology15030291
  • BIB-06. Wave 1 RND note, working-papers/wave1/rnd/m6-rnd-capacity.md, and its sources RD-01 (Scite), RD-04 (GFI grants page), RD-22/23/31/32 (HUST papers) and RD-46 (SPC in snakehead). Internal, 2026-09-23. Used for institution attribution and comparison. Type: internal research note.
<!-- edition 1.1 futures sources -->

Edition 1.1 adds the sources of the futures round (waves 3 to 5, September 2026). Rows QNT-model, NGF-calc and AQF-calc record our own calculation scripts; they are not cited with a citation code in the text.

FTG: Frontier technology: gas fermentation and power-to-protein (wave 3) (35)

FTB: Frontier technology: biology and AI (wave 3) (51)

  • FTB-01. Moulange, H. and McAuliffe, W. "AI and Cultivated Meat: Near-Term Impacts of AI on the Commercial Viability of Cultivated Meat." Rethink Priorities, 9 June 2026. https://rethinkpriorities.org/research-area/ai-and-cultivated-meat/ and https://rethinkpriorities.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Report_-AI-and-Cultivated-Meat.pdf . Accessed 2026-09-24. Independent assessment of AI adoption, company claims on media cost, and investment decline. Type: think-tank research.
  • FTB-02. Cosenza, Z., Astudillo, R., Frazier, P., Baar, K. and Block, D. "Multi-information source Bayesian optimization of culture media for cellular agriculture." Biotechnology and Bioengineering 119(9):2447-2458, 2022. doi:10.1002/bit.28132. Accessed 2026-09-24. 38% fewer experiments than DOE; 181% more cells. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FTB-03. Cosenza, Z., Block, D., Baar, K. and Chen, X. "Multi-objective Bayesian algorithm automatically discovers low-cost high-growth serum-free media for cellular agriculture application." Engineering in Life Sciences 23(8), 2023. doi:10.1002/elsc.202300005. Accessed 2026-09-24. 23% more growth at 62.5% of cost. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FTB-04. Narayanan, H. et al. "Accelerating cell culture media development using Bayesian optimization-based iterative experimental design." Nature Communications 16, 2025. doi:10.1038/s41467-025-61113-5. Accessed 2026-09-24. 3 to 30 times fewer experiments, including K. phaffii protein production. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FTB-05. HamediRad, M. et al. "Towards a fully automated algorithm driven platform for biosystems design." Nature Communications 10, 2019. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13189-z. Accessed 2026-09-24. BioAutomata tested less than 1% of variants and beat random screening by 77%. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FTB-06. Singh, N. et al. "A generalized platform for artificial intelligence-powered autonomous enzyme engineering." Nature Communications 16, 2025. doi:10.1038/s41467-025-61209-y; figures from the preprint doi:10.1101/2025.02.12.637932. Accessed 2026-09-24. 26-fold phytase improvement in 4 weeks. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract via preprint).
  • FTB-07. Madani, A. et al. "Large language models generate functional protein sequences across diverse families." Nature Biotechnology 41:1099-1106, 2023. doi:10.1038/s41587-022-01618-2. Accessed 2026-09-24 (metadata only). ProGen artificial lysozymes. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FTB-08. Hayes, T. et al. (EvolutionaryScale). "Simulating 500 million years of evolution with a language model." Science 387(6736):850-858, 2025. doi:10.1126/science.ads0018. Accessed 2026-09-24. ESM3; fluorescent protein at 58% identity. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FTB-09. Zhang, C. et al. "An AI-Native Biofoundry for Autonomous Enzyme Engineering: Integrating Active Learning with Automated Experimentation." bioRxiv, 1 Feb 2026. doi:10.64898/2026.02.01.703093. Accessed 2026-09-24. LLM-agent DBTL. Type: preprint.
  • FTB-10. OpenAlex queries by FTB (AI and alternative protein by year and country; protein design by country, year and institution; AI and alternative protein with Vietnamese affiliation). Queries reproducible via api.openalex.org OQL, for example: works where title/abstract has (("machine learning" or "artificial intelligence" or "deep learning" or "Bayesian optimization" or "protein language model") and ("cultivated meat" or "cultured meat" or "precision fermentation" or "alternative protein*" or "meat analogue*" or "plant-based meat" or "mycoprotein" or "single cell protein")) and year >= 2016. Run 2026-09-24. Also used for the EU precision-fermentation absence check (one web search). Type: bibliometric data (own analysis).
  • FTB-11. Global Biofoundries Alliance. "Members." https://www.biofoundries.org/members-1 . Accessed 2026-09-24. Partial list (to "LARA"); no Vietnamese member. Type: organisation website.
  • FTB-12. K-Biofoundry (KRIBB, National Bio Foundry Project). https://kbiofoundry.org/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. Open platform; collaboration models; "years to weeks" claim. Type: public research institute website.
  • FTB-13. Baker McKenzie. "Vietnam: Artificial Intelligence Law - Foundation and Outlook." February 2026. https://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/insight/publications/2026/02/vietnam-artificial-intelligence-law-foundation-and-outlook . Accessed 2026-09-24. Passed 10 Dec 2025; in force 1 Mar 2026; risk tiers; transition dates. Type: law firm analysis.
  • FTB-14. VietNamNet. "New AI Law lays foundation for Vietnam to master AI technology." December 2025. https://vietnamnet.vn/en/new-ai-law-lays-foundation-for-vietnam-to-master-ai-technology-2472111.html . Accessed 2026-09-24. National AI computing centre, AI Development Fund, vouchers, sandbox; 429 of 434 votes. Law number No. 134/2025/QH15 from the luatvietnam.vn listing seen in search. Type: press (state-aligned).
  • FTB-15. VietNamNet. "FPT AI factories in Japan and Vietnam enter global top 500 supercomputers." June 2025. https://vietnamnet.vn/en/fpt-ai-factories-in-japan-and-vietnam-enter-global-top-500-supercomputers-2414563.html . Accessed 2026-09-24. Ranks 36 and 38; 49.85 and 46.65 petaflops; H200. Type: press.
  • FTB-16. Viettel AI. "Viettel operates Vietnam's first latest-generation NVIDIA supercomputer." February 2026. https://viettelai.vn/en/tin-tuc/viettel-van-hanh-sieu-may-tinh-moi-nhat-cua-nvidia-dau-tien-tai-viet-nam . Accessed 2026-09-24. DGX B200, 6 Feb 2026, shared access. Type: company.
  • FTB-17. Good Food Institute. "2026 State of the Industry report: Fermentation for meat, seafood, eggs, dairy, and ingredients." April to May 2026. https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/GFI-2026-State-of-the-Industry-report-Fermentation-for-meat-seafood-eggs-dairy-and-ingredients.pdf . Accessed 2026-09-24. Funding, precision share, closures, IP disputes, Asia-Pacific policy, the "where to build" quote on Vietnam. Type: advocacy.
  • FTB-18. Vireo Advisors. "Developments in Precision fermentation, GRAS regulation, and other FDA initiatives." 27 Jan 2025. https://www.vireoadvisors.com/blog/developments-in-precision-fermentation-gras-regulation-and-other-fda-initiatives . Accessed 2026-09-24. Lists precision-fermented proteins with letters; the GRAS reform proposal. Type: regulatory consultancy.
  • FTB-19. FoodNavigator. "FDA sends 'no questions' letter to Verley for precision fermentation dairy proteins." 10 Oct 2025. https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2025/10/10/fda-sends-no-questions-letter-to-verley-for-precision-fermentation-dairy-proteins/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. GRN 1241 and a table of 2025 letters. Also a search headline on Imagindairy's GRAS (FoodNavigator-USA, 17 Jan 2024). Type: trade press.
  • FTB-20. FoodNavigator. "South Korea moves closer to cell-cultured food regulations." 15 Jul 2026. https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2026/07/15/south-korea-moves-closer-to-cell-cultured-food-regulations/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. MFDS standards for cell-cultured processed foods (June 2026); Food Tech Industry Promotion Act enforced in 2025. Type: trade press.
  • FTB-21. Scite patent database queries (Perfect Day family 54105986; Impossible Foods families 54241231, 52666512, 57325176, 51259423). Run 2026-09-24. Filing dates used to estimate expiry. Type: patent data (own analysis; not a freedom-to-operate opinion).
  • FTB-22. Lehmbeck, J. T. et al. "Mycotoxin-free Aspergillus oryzae strain lineage for alternative and novel protein production at industrial scale." Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology, 2025. doi:10.1007/s00253-025-13482-6. Accessed 2026-09-24. Novonesis lineage. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • FTB-23. Nielsen, M. B., Meyer, A. S., Hansen, K. and Arnau, J. "Enhanced Production of Bovine beta-Lactoglobulin in an Industrial Aspergillus oryzae Host." Industrial Biotechnology, 2025. doi:10.1177/15509087251398318. Accessed 2026-09-24. "Envisaged" USD 10 per kg by 2025 and USD 1 per kg by 2035. Also a withdrawn lactoferrin TEA preprint, doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-8767901/v1, not used. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FTB-24. Good Food Institute. "2026 State of the Industry report: Cultivated meat, seafood, and ingredients." April 2026. https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/GFI_2026-State-of-the-Industry-report-Cultivated-meat-seafood-and-ingredients.pdf . Accessed 2026-09-24. Investment, companies, closures, scale, media claims, Asia-Pacific. Type: advocacy.
  • FTB-25. Green Queen. "Umami Bioworks Gets EU Registration to Sell Two Cultivated Fish Products for Pet Food." 2 Sep 2025. https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/umami-bioworks-lab-grown-meat-fish-eu-approval-pet-food/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. Type: trade press.
  • FTB-26. Risner, D. et al. "Environmental Impacts of Cultured Meat: A Cradle-to-Gate Life Cycle Assessment." ACS Food Science and Technology 5(1):61-74, 2024. doi:10.1021/acsfoodscitech.4c00281. Accessed 2026-09-24. 12 to 1,508 kg CO2e per kg; capacity needed for 1% of meat. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FTB-27. Gu, H.-W. et al. "Scaling Cultured Meat: Challenges and Solutions for Affordable Mass Production." Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety 24(4), 2025. doi:10.1111/1541-4337.70221. Accessed 2026-09-24. Cost from USD 2.3 million to USD 63 per kg; fish myoblast immortalisation. Type: peer-reviewed review.
  • FTB-28. ISAAA. "Milking a Potato and More Wonders of Molecular Farming." 19 Feb 2025. https://www.isaaa.org/blog/entry/default.asp?BlogDate=2%2F19%2F2025 . Accessed 2026-09-24. Moolec, IngredientWerks, Finally Foods. Type: industry-association blog.
  • FTB-29. Green Queen. "Moolec Gains USDA Approval for Soybeans Containing Pork Proteins." April 2024. https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/moolec-piggy-sooy-usda-approval-pork-soybeans-molecular-farming/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. Type: trade press.
  • FTB-30. Green Queen. "PoLoPo Files for USDA Approval to Grow Egg Proteins in Potatoes." 23 May 2024. https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/polopo-molecular-farming-superaa-potato-egg-protein-usda-approval/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. Type: trade press.
  • FTB-31. USDA APHIS. "APHIS Issues Regulatory Status Review Responses: Covercress, GCMBNA, Moolec, and MSU." Undated program update. https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/program-update/aphis-issues-regulatory-status-review-responses-covercress-gcmbna-moolec-msu . Accessed 2026-09-24. "Pea with a meat protein in seeds"; no increased plant pest risk. Type: government.
  • FTB-32. Green Queen. "Industry Consolidation: 40+ Major Alternative Protein Companies Have Shut or Been Acquired in Past Year." 4 Sep 2025. https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/alternative-protein-plant-based-food-mergers-acquisitions-closures-bankruptcy/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. Type: trade press.
  • FTB-33. Schillberg, S. and Finnern, R. "Plant molecular farming for the production of valuable proteins: critical evaluation of achievements and future challenges." Journal of Plant Physiology 258-259:153359, 2021. doi:10.1016/j.jplph.2020.153359. Accessed 2026-09-24 (abstract and metadata). Type: peer-reviewed review.
  • FTB-34. Trang thông tin quốc gia về bảo tồn thiên nhiên và đa dạng sinh học (nbca.gov.vn). "Hiện trạng cây trồng biến đổi gen và tiềm năng phát triển công nghệ chỉnh sửa gen tại Việt Nam" (Status of GM crops and potential of gene editing in Vietnam). 12 Aug 2024. https://nbca.gov.vn/hien-trang-cay-trong-bien-doi-gen-va-tiem-nang-phat-trien-cong-nghe-chinh-sua-gen-tai-viet-nam/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. 5 GM maize events; 16 varieties; gene-edited rice projects. Type: government portal.
  • FTB-35. Thaore, V., Tsourapas, D., Shah, N. and Kontoravdi, C. "Techno-Economic Assessment of Cell-Free Synthesis of Monoclonal Antibodies Using CHO Cell Extracts." Processes 8(4):454, 2020. doi:10.3390/pr8040454; cites Zawada et al. 2011, doi:10.1002/bit.23103 (1 mL to 100 L scale-up). Accessed 2026-09-24. USD 2.8 per mg at 100 L. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FTB-36. Lavickova, B. and Maerkl, S. J. "A Simple, Robust, and Low-Cost Method To Produce the PURE Cell-Free System." ACS Synthetic Biology, 2019. doi:10.1021/acssynbio.8b00427. Accessed 2026-09-24. 156 micrograms per mL at USD 0.09 per microlitre. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • FTB-37. Guzman-Chavez, F. et al. "Constructing Cell-Free Expression Systems for Low-Cost Access." ACS Synthetic Biology, 2022. doi:10.1021/acssynbio.1c00342. Accessed 2026-09-24. Low-cost CFPS for low- and middle-income labs. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • FTB-38. Green Queen. "Ayana Bio, Zenfold Buy Meati Foods's Fermentation Assets to Scale Plant Cell Culture Platform in India." 18 Sep 2026. https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/ayana-bio-zenfold-meati-foods-fermentation-assets-plant-cell-culture-acquisition/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. Type: trade press.
  • FTB-39. AgFunderNews. "The Better Meat Co slashes cost of mycoprotein production via continuous process." 11 Jun 2024. https://agfundernews.com/the-better-meat-co-slashes-cost-of-mycoprotein-production-via-continuous-process . Accessed 2026-09-24. Company claims. Type: trade press.
  • FTB-40. Search-result headlines only: AgFunderNews and Green Queen on funding for Enough (EUR 40 million / USD 43.6 million), The Protein Brewery (USD 35.6 million Series B) and Planetary (USD 28 million); dates not read. Accessed 2026-09-24. Type: trade press (headlines; Low).
  • FTB-41. Green Queen. "TurtleTree Earns First US FDA Approval for Cow-Free Lactoferrin Protein." 2025. https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/turtletree-lactoferrin-fda-gras-precision-fermentation/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. Conventional lactoferrin USD 750 to 1,500 per kg; 10,000 L of milk per kg. Type: trade press.
  • FTB-42. BIOTEC (NSTDA, Thailand). "The Launch of Bio Base Asia Pilot Plant (BBAPP) Joint Press Conference." 29 Mar 2022. https://www.biotec.or.th/home/en/the-launch-of-bio-base-asia-pilot-plant-bbapp-joint-press-conference/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. Type: government research agency.
  • FTB-43. Lim, S., Meerod, W., Hathaichoti, S. and Preedakorn, K. "Thailand's Synthetic Biology Strategy." Engineering Biology 10(1):e70006, 2026. doi:10.1049/enb2.70006. Accessed 2026-09-24. Ten-year strategy. Type: peer-reviewed (policy article).
  • FTB-44. Hwang, Y.-H., Kim, S.-H., Kim, C.-J. et al. "Survey on the Global Technological Status for Forecasting the Industrialization Timeline of Cultured Meat." Foods 14(24):4222, 9 Dec 2025. doi:10.3390/foods14244222. Accessed 2026-09-24. Hybrid-first judgement; Korean fee; China pilot. Type: peer-reviewed review.
  • FTB-45. FoodNavigator. "Where countries stand on cultivated meat regulation in 2026." 18 Feb 2026. https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2026/02/18/cultivated-meat-regulation-where-countries-stand-in-2026/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. Type: trade press.
  • FTB-46. Poduschnick, L. et al. "Bayesian optimisation rivals expert-led Design of Experiments in high-dimensional cultivation medium optimisation." SSRN preprint, 2026. doi:10.2139/ssrn.7267115; and Parsaee, A. et al. "A data-driven evaluation of optimization techniques in cell culture media." Bioinformatics, 2026. doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/btag607. Accessed 2026-09-24 (titles and truncated abstracts). Type: preprint; peer-reviewed.
  • FTB-47. Goodwin, C. M., Jabeen, M., Rao, B. M. and Shirwaiker, R. A. "Cell culture media for cultivated meat: Review and perspectives on first principles design to drive cost-effective scale-up." Future Foods, 2026. doi:10.1016/j.fufo.2026.100908. Accessed 2026-09-24. Medium estimated at 31 to 99% of production cost at scale. Type: peer-reviewed review.
  • FTB-48. LuatVietnam. "Quyết định 1671/QĐ-TTg 2026 phê duyệt Chiến lược quốc gia về trí tuệ nhân tạo đến 2030" (Decision 1671/QĐ-TTg approving the National AI Strategy to 2030, vision 2045), signed 28 Aug 2026. https://luatvietnam.vn/khoa-hoc/quyet-dinh-1671-qd-ttg-2026-phe-duyet-chien-luoc-quoc-gia-ve-tri-tue-nhan-tao-den-2030-446338-d1.html . Accessed 2026-09-24. Compute, talent and GDP targets; agriculture pillar. Type: law database (summary of official decision).
  • FTB-49. Ministry of Science and Technology (mst.gov.vn). "Định vị chiến lược công nghệ sinh học quốc gia" (Positioning the national biotechnology strategy). 30 Nov 2025. https://mst.gov.vn/dinh-vi-chien-luoc-cong-nghe-sinh-hoc-quoc-gia-197251130213943987.htm . Accessed 2026-09-24. Draft strategy 2026 to 2030, vision 2045; four priority sectors. Type: government.
  • FTB-50. Báo Chính phủ. "Phát triển, ứng dụng hiệu quả công nghệ sinh học thành ngành kinh tế - kỹ thuật quan trọng" (on Directive 13/CT-TTg). 21 Apr 2026. https://baochinhphu.vn/phat-trien-ung-dung-hieu-qua-cong-nghe-sinh-hoc-thanh-nganh-kinh-te-ky-thuat-quan-trong-102260421194253195.htm . Accessed 2026-09-24. MOST and MAE tasks and deadlines. Type: government newspaper.
  • FTB-51. Ministry of Science and Technology (mst.gov.vn). "Chương trình hành động phát triển và ứng dụng công nghệ sinh học" (Action programme on biotechnology, Resolution 189/NQ-CP of 16 Nov 2023). 8 Oct 2025. https://mst.gov.vn/chuong-trinh-hanh-dong-phat-trien-va-ung-dung-cong-nghe-sinh-hoc-197251113094248573.htm . Accessed 2026-09-24. Type: government.

CLM: Climate (wave 3) (43)

QNT: Protein and feed balance model (wave 3) (16)

  • QNT-01. OECD and FAO. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, data via the OECD SDMX API, dataflow OECD.TAD.ATM DSD_AGR@DF_OUTLOOK_2026_2035 version 1.1. Published June 2026. https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.TAD.ATM,DSD_AGR@DF_OUTLOOK_2026_2035,1.1/VNM.A.CPC_EX_PK.QP+QC+FO_PC+IM+EX..?startPeriod=2024&endPeriod=2035 (the report PDF at https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2026/06/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2026-2035_5610f218/47874669-en.pdf was blocked by robots.txt). Country projections for meat, fish, protein meal, fishmeal, maize, soybean and milk, plus yields. Type: intergovernmental model projection.
  • QNT-02. USDA Office of the Chief Economist. USDA Agricultural Projections to 2035, OCE-2026-1, 13 February 2026. https://ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details?pubid=113816 (PDF at https://ers.usda.gov/media/20856/oce-2026-1.pdf?v=16321; only the macro tables were read). Vietnam GDP growth assumption. Type: government model projection.
  • QNT-03. Hoang, H. and Meyers, W.H. (2015). Food demand in Vietnam: structural changes and projections to 2030. AgEcon Search. doi 10.22004/ag.econ.212456. Abstract only; direction of meat demand. Type: peer-reviewed conference paper.
  • QNT-04. Quach, V.D., Yabe, M., Nomura, H. and Takahashi, Y. (2022). Structural changes in meat consumption in Vietnam: evidence from household survey data. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies 13(4): 590-612. doi 10.1108/jadee-08-2021-0206. Abstract only; poultry and beef gaining share. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • QNT-05. Falcon, W.P., Naylor, R.L. and Shankar, N.D. (2022). Rethinking global food demand for 2050. Population and Development Review. doi 10.1111/padr.12508. Abstract; global demand +50 to 60%, shift to poultry. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • QNT-06. Prime Minister of Vietnam. Decision 339/QD-TTg of 11 March 2021 approving the fisheries development strategy to 2030, vision 2045. Read via Tap chi Thuy san Viet Nam, https://thuysanvietnam.com.vn/phe-duyet-chien-luoc-phat-trien-thuy-san-den-nam-2030/ (official text at https://chinhphu.vn/default.aspx?pageid=27160&docid=202798, not opened). Targets for aquaculture, capture and exports in 2030. Type: law or policy (secondary reading).
  • QNT-07. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, September 2026. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/oilseeds.pdf. Vietnam MY2026/27 soybean and soybean-meal imports. Type: government statistics and forecast.
  • QNT-08. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. World Agricultural Production, September 2026. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf. Corn yields in Argentina, Brazil and the United States. Type: government statistics.
  • QNT-09. Leger, D., Matassa, S., Noor, E., Shepon, A., Milo, R. and Bar-Even, A. (2021). Photovoltaic-driven microbial protein production can use land and sunlight more efficiently than conventional crops. PNAS 118(26): e2015025118. doi 10.1073/pnas.2015025118. CO2 and NH3 per kg of biomass, protein share, cost per kg of protein, land ratio. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • QNT-10. Sillman, J., Uusitalo, V., Ruuskanen, V. and others (2020). A life cycle environmental sustainability analysis of microbial protein production via power-to-food approaches. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 25: 2190-2203. doi 10.1007/s11367-020-01771-3 (correction doi 10.1007/s11367-021-01962-6, not checked). Electricity per kg of biomass and per kg H2. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • QNT-11. Jean, A.B. and Brown, R.C. (2024). Techno-economic analysis of gas fermentation for the production of single cell protein. Environmental Science and Technology 58(8): 3823-3829. doi 10.1021/acs.est.3c10312. Abstract; carbon intensities of SCP, SBM and fishmeal; land ratio. Same study as edition 1.0 COST-45. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • QNT-12. Komarek, A.M., Dunston, S., Enahoro, D. and others (2021). Income, consumer preferences, and the future of livestock-derived food demand. Global Environmental Change 70: 102343. doi 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102343. Abstract; IMPACT SSP2 global and regional changes to 2050. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • QNT-13. VietnamPlus (30 March 2026). Nganh chan nuoi tu chu nguyen lieu doi pho bien dong toan cau. https://www.vietnamplus.vn/nganh-chan-nuoi-tu-chu-nguyen-lieu-ung-pho-bien-dong-toan-cau-post1101719.vnp. Official quote: over 65% of feed raw materials and over 90% of additives imported. Type: press.
  • QNT-14. Garcia Martinez, J.B. and others (2021). Potential of microbial protein from hydrogen for preventing mass starvation in catastrophic scenarios. Sustainable Production and Consumption. doi 10.1016/j.spc.2020.08.011. Table value of 2.41 kg H2 per kg SCP (citing Sefton 2018), used only in the disagreements log (excerpt via Scite). Type: peer-reviewed.
  • QNT-15. ABARES (2012). Food demand to 2050: opportunities for Australian agriculture. https://www.agriculture.gov.au/sites/default/files/sitecollectiondocuments/abares/publications/Outlook2012FoodDemand2050.pdf. No Vietnam projection; not used. Type: government.
  • QNT-model. AltProtein Vietnam QNT balance model (this work): model.py, assumptions.csv, outputs.csv, sensitivity.csv, 24 September 2026. Type: our estimate.

GEO: Geopolitics, trade and macro drivers (wave 3) (48)

ECF: Economics and policy futures (wave 3) (46)

  • ECF-01. Vasilakou K., Nimmegeers P., Thomassen G., Billen P., Van Passel S. "Assessing the future of second-generation bioethanol by 2030: a techno-economic assessment integrating technology learning curves." Applied Energy 344 (2023) 121263. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121263. Accessed 2026-09-24 (full-text excerpts via Scite). Learning rates for US corn (13%) and Brazil sugarcane (19%) ethanol as cited; EIA 10 to 25% assumption. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-02. Chen X., Khanna M., Yeh S. "Stimulating learning-by-doing in advanced biofuels: effectiveness of alternative policies." Environmental Research Letters 7 (2012) 045907. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045907. Accessed 2026-09-24 (full-text excerpts). Sugarcane ethanol progress ratio 0.80; 40% and 70% cost falls; ex-ante 0.99 and 0.98; rapeseed biodiesel 0.97. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-03. Hettinga W. et al. "Understanding the reductions in US corn ethanol production costs: an experience curve approach." Energy Policy 37(1) (2009) 190 to 203. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.08.002. Accessed 2026-09-24 (metadata only). Primary source for corn ethanol rate. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-04. Lieberman M.B. "The learning curve and pricing in the chemical processing industries." RAND Journal of Economics (1984). doi:10.2307/2555676. Accessed 2026-09-24 (abstract). 37 chemical products; learning tied to cumulative output and investment. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-05. Way R., Ives M.C., Mealy P., Farmer J.D. "Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition." Joule 6(9) (2022) 2057 to 2082. doi:10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009. Accessed 2026-09-24 (abstract and excerpts). Near 10% a year cost declines; Li-ion production +30% and cost minus 12% a year, 1995 to 2018. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-06. Sampat B.N. "Intellectual property rights and pharmaceuticals: the case of antibiotics." SSRN (2023). doi:10.2139/ssrn.4434179. Accessed 2026-09-24 (excerpts). Penicillin titre 4 to 900 units per ml, 1941 to 1944 (citing Neushul 1993). Working paper.
  • ECF-07. Malla S. et al. "A novel efficient L-lysine exporter identified by functional metagenomics." Frontiers in Microbiology 13 (2022) 855736. doi:10.3389/fmicb.2022.855736. Accessed 2026-09-24 (excerpts). Lysine about 3.0 Mt and USD 5.6 billion (2022, market report cited); titres above 1.2 M. Peer-reviewed (market figure secondary).
  • ECF-08. Klein-Marcuschamer D., Oleskowicz-Popiel P., Simmons B.A., Blanch H.W. "The challenge of enzyme cost in the production of lignocellulosic biofuels." Biotechnology and Bioengineering (2012). doi:10.1002/bit.24370. Accessed 2026-09-24 (abstract). Enzyme cost higher than assumed. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-09. OpenAlex query by ECF, run 2026-09-24: works where title/abstract has (("learning curve" or "learning rate" or "experience curve" or "learning-by-doing") and ("cultivated meat" or "cultured meat" or "cell-based meat" or "precision fermentation" or "single cell protein" or "single-cell protein" or "microbial protein" or "mycoprotein" or "alternative protein" or "meat analogue" or "plant-based meat")) and year >= 2015. 9 results, none an empirical learning rate. Bibliometric query.
  • ECF-10. Malhotra A., Schmidt T.S. "Accelerating low-carbon innovation." Joule 4(11) (2020) 2259 to 2267. doi:10.1016/j.joule.2020.09.004. Accessed 2026-09-24 (excerpts). Complexity and customisation slow learning. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-11. Wilson C., Grubler A., Bento N. et al. "Granular technologies to accelerate decarbonization." Science 368 (2020) 36 to 39. doi:10.1126/science.aaz8060. Accessed 2026-09-24 (abstract). Granular technologies learn faster. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-12. Người Quan Sát. "Thị trường tín chỉ carbon lộ diện, doanh nghiệp phát thải lớn đứng trước 'bài toán chi phí mới'." 10 Feb 2026. https://nguoiquansat.vn/thi-truong-tin-chi-carbon-lo-dien-doanh-nghiep-phat-thai-lon-dung-truoc-bai-toan-chi-phi-moi-273699.html. Accessed 2026-09-24. Quota approval 9 Feb 2026; 110 facilities; 243 and 268 Mt; pilot trading end-2026 to 2028. Press.
  • ECF-13. Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE). News item on carbon market readiness, 10 Apr 2026. https://mae.gov.vn/SMPT_Publishing_UC/KhaiThac/TinTuc/pInTinTuc.aspx?ItemID=21376 . Accessed 2026-09-24. Decree 29/2026/ND-CP; Decision 263/QD-TTg; offsets up to 30%; surrender by 31 Dec 2027; trading at HNX expected Q2 2026. Government.
  • ECF-14. ICAP. "Emissions Trading Worldwide: ICAP Status Report 2026." April 2026. https://icapcarbonaction.com/en/publications/emissions-trading-worldwide-icap-status-report-2026 . Accessed 2026-09-24. 41 ETSs, 26% of emissions; Japan, India, Vietnam launching 2026. Research organisation.
  • ECF-15. ICAP. "EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)" factsheet. https://icapcarbonaction.com/en/ets/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets . Accessed 2026-09-24. 2025 average prices; ETS2 delay; CBAM definitive stage 2026. Research organisation.
  • ECF-16. ICAP. "China National ETS" factsheet. https://icapcarbonaction.com/en/ets/china-national-ets . Accessed 2026-09-24. 2025 average CNY 70.78; sector expansion; absolute-cap roadmap. Research organisation.
  • ECF-17. ICAP. "Korea Emissions Trading System (K-ETS)" factsheet. https://icapcarbonaction.com/en/ets/korea-emissions-trading-system-k-ets . Accessed 2026-09-24. 2025 prices; phase 4 auctioning. Research organisation.
  • ECF-18. ICAP. "Japan transitions its GX-ETS to the mandatory phase." 2026. https://icapcarbonaction.com/en/news/japan-transitions-its-gx-ets-mandatory-phase . Accessed 2026-09-24. Start 1 Apr 2026; FY2027 ceiling and floor. Research organisation.
  • ECF-19. National Climate Change Secretariat, Singapore. "Carbon Tax." https://www.nccs.gov.sg/singapores-climate-action/mitigation-efforts/carbontax/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. S$5, S$25, S$45, S$50 to 80 by 2030; 5% credit limit. Government.
  • ECF-20. World Bank. "State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024" (openknowledge bitstream) and "State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026" landing page. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/d14ff4b1-823f-4d70-927c-456449772089/content ; https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/state-and-trends-of-carbon-pricing . Accessed 2026-09-24. 2030 corridors USD 63 to 127 and 226 to 385; 2026 coverage nearly 30%; revenue over USD 107 billion (2025). Multilateral.
  • ECF-21. Dalgaard R. et al. "LCA of soybean meal." International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 13 (2008). doi:10.1065/lca2007.06.342. Value 0.721 kg CO2e per kg (Argentina, no LUC) as cited in ECF-22; not read directly. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-22. Wilke V., Gickel J., Visscher C. "Monitoring of performance-based environmental impacts of substituting soybean meal with rapeseed meal in the rye-based diet of weaned pigs." Sustainability 15(3) (2023) 2210. doi:10.3390/su15032210. Accessed 2026-09-24 (full-text excerpts). SBM 4.42 kg CO2e per kg; GFLI 2022 Argentina 4.087; Dalgaard 0.721. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-23. Escobar N., Tizado E.J., zu Ermgassen E.K.H.J., Löfgren P., Börner J., Godar J. "Spatially-explicit footprints of agricultural commodities: mapping carbon emissions embodied in Brazil's soy exports." Global Environmental Change 62 (2020) 102067. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102067. Accessed 2026-09-24 (publisher page). 0.69 t per t average; China 0.67, EU 0.77; Cerrado 1.00; Matopiba up to six times. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-24. Deville A., Vázquez-Rowe I., Avadí A., Miranda F., Kahhat R.F. "Identifying current trends in the environmental impacts linked to fishmeal and fish oil production in Peru." Aquaculture 600 (2025) 742239. doi:10.1016/j.aquaculture.2025.742239. Accessed 2026-09-24 (publisher page). About 320 kg CO2e per t fishmeal; 239 kg transport to China. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-25. Lansche J., Awiszus S., Latif S., Müller J. "Potential of biogas production from processing residues to reduce environmental impacts from cassava starch and crisp production: a case study from Malaysia." Applied Sciences 10(8) (2020) 2975. doi:10.3390/app10082975. Accessed 2026-09-24 (excerpts). Cites Thai cassava starch at about 600 and 609 to 966 kg CO2e per t. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-26. Tran T. et al. "A comparison of energy use, water use and carbon footprint of cassava starch production in Thailand, Vietnam and Colombia." Resources, Conservation and Recycling 100 (2015) 31 to 40. doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2015.04.007. 93 to 539 kg CO2e per t starch, processing only, as cited in ECF-25; paper closed access. Peer-reviewed.
  • ECF-27. WebSearch of carbon-credit methodologies for protein substitution (Verra, Gold Standard, trade press), 2026-09-24; Verra home page https://verra.org/ . No approved methodology found. Search record.
  • ECF-28. Climate Bonds Initiative. "Alternative Proteins" sector criteria page. https://www.climatebonds.net/our-expertise/climate-bonds-standard-and-certification-scheme/sector-criteria/alternative-proteins . Accessed 2026-09-24. Consultation 9 Dec 2024 to 7 Feb 2025; launched. Standard-setter.
  • ECF-29. Gov.cn. "China to nurture emerging, future industries." 5 Mar 2026. https://english.www.gov.cn/2026special/2026npcandcpcc/202603/05/content_WS69a8eea9c6d00ca5f9a09891.html . Accessed 2026-09-24. Biomanufacturing a future industry in the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Government.
  • ECF-30. China Briefing (Dezan Shira). "China's biomanufacturing industry: growth drivers and opportunities." 2 Jan 2026. https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-biomanufacturing-industry-opportunities/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. MIIT dedicated plan; RMB 1.1 trillion market; over 70% of world fermentation output (claim); RMB 30 billion a year investment. Consultancy/press.
  • ECF-31. Press Information Bureau, Government of India (Ministry of Science and Technology). "India: A Global Bioeconomy Powerhouse." 5 Sep 2025. https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2025/sep/doc202595628601.pdf . Accessed 2026-09-24. USD 165.7 bn (2024), USD 300 bn (2030), smart proteins, 21 BioEnablers. Government.
  • ECF-32. Cabinet Office, Japan. "Bioeconomy Strategy." 3 Jun 2024. https://www8.cao.go.jp/cstp/english/bio/bio_economy_en.pdf . Accessed 2026-09-24. JPY 100 trillion; biomanufacturing JPY 53.3 trillion; JPY 3 trillion a year investment by 2030. Government.
  • ECF-33. Korea Biomedical Review. "Korea passes world's 1st synthetic bio law." 3 Apr 2025. https://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=27162 . Accessed 2026-09-24. Vote 2 Apr 2025; one-year grace; biofoundries. Press.
  • ECF-34. BioSpectrum Asia. "The rise of K-biotech." 1 May 2025. https://www.biospectrumasia.com/analysis/26/25968/the-rise-of-k-biotech.html . Accessed 2026-09-24. Biotech output USD 43 bn to 149 bn (2035); 150,000 jobs by 2027. Press.
  • ECF-35. EuropaBio and partners. "Joint statement on regulatory sandboxes under the Biotech Act I and the exclusion of novel foods." 30 Mar 2026. https://www.europabio.org/joint-statement-on-regulatory-sandboxes-under-the-biotech-act-i-and-the-exclusion-of-novel-foods/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. Proposal 16 Dec 2025; Art. 56(7) excludes novel foods. Industry association.
  • ECF-36. AGRINFO. "Biotech Act: strengthening the biotechnology sector." https://agrinfo.eu/book-of-reports/biotech-act-strengthening-the-biotechnology-sector/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. COM(2025)1022; Biotech Act II in preparation. EU-funded information platform.
  • ECF-37. Singapore Economic Development Board. "Singapore invests S$37 billion in RIE2030 research plan." December 2025. https://www.edb.gov.sg/en/business-insights/insights/singapore-invests-s37-billion-in-rie2030-research-plan-semiconductors-ageing-among-focus-areas.html . Accessed 2026-09-24. Government agency.
  • ECF-38. Climate Policy Initiative. "New data reveals global agrifood systems receive only 7% of total climate investment." 14 May 2025. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/press-release/new-data-reveals-global-agrifood-systems-receive-only-7-of-total-climate-investment/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. USD 95 bn (2021/22); USD 1.1 trillion a year needed by 2030. Research organisation.
  • ECF-39. Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) portal. "Phát triển công nghệ sinh học: Bài toán nhân lực từ 'điểm nghẽn' đến động lực đột phá." 6 Apr 2026. https://mst.gov.vn/phat-trien-cong-nghe-sinh-hoc-bai-toan-nhan-luc-tu-diem-nghen-den-dong-luc-dot-pha-197260406145346873.htm . Accessed 2026-09-24. Biotech workforce bottlenecks. Government.
  • ECF-40. Báo Công Thương. "Phê duyệt Đề án phát triển công nghiệp sinh học thành ngành kinh tế - kỹ thuật." 10 Jun 2026. https://congthuong.vn/phe-duyet-de-an-phat-trien-cong-nghiep-sinh-hoc-thanh-nganh-kinh-te-ky-thuat-460716.html . Accessed 2026-09-24. Decision 1355/QD-BCT (5 Jun 2026) targets. Ministry newspaper.
  • ECF-41. Quyết định 1002/QĐ-TTg năm 2025 phê duyệt Đề án đào tạo nguồn nhân lực phục vụ phát triển công nghệ cao giai đoạn 2025 đến 2035, định hướng đến năm 2045. Prime Minister, 24 May 2025. https://thuvienphapluat.vn/van-ban/Lao-dong-Tien-luong/Quyet-dinh-1002-QD-TTg-2025-De-an-dao-tao-nguon-nhan-luc-phuc-vu-phat-trien-cong-nghe-cao-658181.aspx . Accessed 2026-09-24 (found via thuvienphapluat site search). Biotech graduate targets. Law.
  • ECF-42. Federation of American Scientists. "Translating vision into action: the NSCEB final report and the future of US biotechnology." 2025. https://fas.org/publication/translating-vision-into-action-nsceb-final-report/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. USD 15 billion recommendation; USD 210 billion GDP and 640,000 jobs; agriculture limited attention. Think tank.
  • ECF-43. Good Food Institute. "2026 State of Global Policy: public investment in protein diversification." April 2026. https://gfi-apac.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/GFI25009_SO_Policy_report.pdf . Accessed 2026-09-24. Public investment by country; USD 2.5 bn cumulative; China, US, Korea, Thailand figures. Advocacy.
  • ECF-44. Good Food Institute. "Alternative protein investment" data page (Net Zero Insights data). Updated August 2026. https://gfi.org/investment/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. 2025 and H1 2026 totals; over USD 19.5 bn since 2017. Advocacy (data).
  • ECF-45. BCG Economy Model (Thailand). "Background." https://www.bcg.in.th/eng/background/ . Accessed 2026-09-24. Four strategic sectors; no numeric targets on page. Government programme site.
  • ECF-46. RAND Corporation. Merrow E.W., Phillips K.E., Myers C.W. "Understanding cost growth and performance shortfalls in pioneer process plants." R-2569-DOE, 1981. https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R2569.html . Accessed 2026-09-24 (abstract only). Lead for first-of-a-kind overruns. Research report.

HSC: Horizon scan and bibliometrics (wave 3) (37)

NTS: National targets (wave 3) (38)

NGF: Next-generation feedstocks (wave 4) (40)

  • NGF-01. Cuong, T.T., Le, H.A., Khai, N.M. and others (2021). Renewable energy from biomass surplus resource: potential of power generation from rice straw in Vietnam. Scientific Reports 11: 792. doi 10.1038/s41598-020-80678-3. Straw 54 Mt (2019 basis), ratio 1.19, 50% surplus, 2,565 MW potential, plant parameters. Type: peer-reviewed.
  • NGF-02. Hung, N.V., Nguyen, C.D., Tran, T.V. and others (2016). Energy efficiency, greenhouse gas emissions, and cost of rice straw collection in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam. Field Crops Research 198: 16-22. doi 10.1016/j.fcr.2016.08.024. 4.72 t straw per ha; collection USD 12 to 18 per t; 12.4% moisture. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • NGF-03. Arai, H., Hosen, Y., Pham Hong, V.N. and others (2015). Greenhouse gas emissions from rice straw burning and straw-mushroom cultivation in a triple rice cropping system in the Mekong Delta. Soil Science and Plant Nutrition 61. doi 10.1080/00380768.2015.1041862. 21 Mt paddy, 24 Mt straw, one quarter burned. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • NGF-04. Kim Anh (8 Apr 2025). Làm sao tiêu thụ hết 14 triệu tấn rơm rạ từ một triệu hecta. Ministry of Agriculture and Environment news portal. https://mae.gov.vn/SMPT_Publishing_UC/KhaiThac/TinTuc/pInTinTuc.aspx?ItemID=17785&UrlList= . 14 Mt from 1 M ha; 30% collected; targets. Type: gov (ministry news).
  • NGF-05. Hung, N.V., Maguyon-Detras, M.C., Migo-Sumagang, M.V. and others (2020). Rice Straw Overview: Availability, Properties, and Management Practices. In Gummert, M., Hung, N.V., Chivenge, P., Douthwaite, B. (eds.), Sustainable Rice Straw Management, Springer. doi 10.1007/978-3-030-32373-8_1. Composition; mushroom yield and profit; soil-incorporation emissions. Type: peer-reviewed book chapter (excerpts).
  • NGF-06. Chen, X., Shekiro, J., Pschorn, T. and others (2015). Techno-economic analysis of the deacetylation and disk refining process. Biotechnology for Biofuels 8: 173. doi 10.1186/s13068-015-0358-0. MSSP USD 0.191 to 0.212 per lb. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • NGF-07. Ou, L., Dou, C., Yu, J.H. and others (2021). Techno-economic analysis of sugar production from lignocellulosic biomass with utilization of hemicellulose and lignin for high-value co-products. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining 15(2): 404-415. doi 10.1002/bbb.2170. MSSP USD 446; 342 to 347 per t. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • NGF-08. Baral, P., Munagala, M., Shastri, Y., Kumar, V., Agrawal, D. (2021). Cost reduction approaches for fermentable sugar production from sugarcane bagasse and its impact on techno-economics and the environment. Cellulose 28: 6305-6322. doi 10.1007/s10570-021-03940-5. USD 1.32 per kg sugar; 1.57 kg CO2e per kg. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • NGF-09. Benova, D., Mares, K., Hutla, P. and others (2021). Energy Potential of Agri Residual Biomass in Southeast Asia with the Focus on Vietnam. Agronomy 11(1): 169. doi 10.3390/agronomy11010169. Residue ratios (straw 2.2, bagasse 0.3, trash 0.2). Type: peer-reviewed.
  • NGF-10. Informist Media (27 Nov 2024). Govt's 2G ethanol plans in limbo as sole IOC Panipat plant lies inactive. https://informistmedia.com/MoneyWire/22664/Ethanol-Plans-Govt-s-2G-ethanol-plans-in-limbo-as-sole-IOC-Panipat-plant-lies-inactive . Design, problems, paused plants. Type: press.
  • NGF-11. ChiniMandi (2026, reporting a Lok Sabha answer; exact date not shown in the extract). India's first 2G ethanol plant at Panipat costs INR 984 crore, government tells Lok Sabha. https://www.chinimandi.com/indias-first-2g-ethanol-plant-at-panipat-costs-%E2%82%B9984-crore-government-tells-lok-sabha/ . Cost; 62% use in December 2025; silica and moisture issues. Type: press (reporting a parliamentary answer).
  • NGF-12. IRENA and Methanol Institute (2021). Innovation Outlook: Renewable Methanol. https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2021/Jan/IRENA_Innovation_Renewable_Methanol_2021.pdf . Bio- and e-methanol costs now and in 2050. Type: intergovernmental.
  • NGF-13. Meng, J., Liu, S., Gao, L., Hong, K., Liu, S., Wu, X. (2023). Economical production of Pichia pastoris single cell protein from methanol at industrial pilot scale. Microbial Cell Factories 22: 198. doi 10.1186/s12934-023-02198-9. 0.43 g DCW per g methanol; 50.6% protein; 33 C. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • NGF-14. European Union. Regulation (EC) No 767/2009 on the placing on the market and use of feed, consolidated text of 26 Dec 2018, Annex III Chapter 1 and footnote 9. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:02009R0767-20181226 (read through the browser fallback). Type: law.
  • NGF-15. Jusakulvijit, P., Bezama, A., Thran, D. (2021). The Availability and Assessment of Potential Agricultural Residues for the Regional Development of Second-Generation Bioethanol in Thailand. Waste and Biomass Valorization 12. doi 10.1007/s12649-021-01424-y. 174.1 Mt residues; straw ratio 0.7 to 1.4. Type: peer-reviewed (excerpts).
  • NGF-16. Global Green Chemicals (11 Aug 2021). GGC and KTIS continue on the second phase construction of "Nakhonsawan BioComplex" project. https://www.ggcplc.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/162/ggc-and-ktis-continue-on-the-second-phase-construction-of-nakhonsawan-biocomplex-project-after-natureworks-llc-decided-to-invest-in-a-bioplastic-manufacturing-factory . Phase 2 scope. Type: company.
  • NGF-17. AgFunderNews (3 Jun 2025). Enifer to make mycoprotein in Brazil from corn ethanol side streams. https://agfundernews.com/enifer-partners-with-ethanol-giant-fs-for-mycoprotein-production-in-brazil . Plant sizes, feedstocks, PEKILO history. Type: press (company claims).
  • NGF-18. National Statistics Office (9 Apr 2026). Chuyển đổi cơ cấu cây trồng trên đất lúa vụ đông xuân năm 2026: những kết quả tích cực. https://www.nso.gov.vn/du-lieu-va-so-lieu-thong-ke/2026/04/chuyen-doi-co-cau-cay-trong-tren-dat-lua-vu-dong-xuan-nam-2026-nhung-ket-qua-tich-cuc/ . Rice-land conversion by use. Type: gov statistics.
  • NGF-19. Báo Chính phủ (12 Sep 2024). Quy định mới về chuyển đổi cơ cấu cây trồng, vật nuôi trên đất trồng lúa (Decree 112/2024/ND-CP). https://baochinhphu.vn/quy-dinh-moi-ve-chuyen-doi-co-cau-cay-trong-vat-nuoi-tren-dat-trong-lua-102240912111455559.htm . Type: gov (secondary reading of a decree).
  • NGF-20. Prime Minister. Decision 1177/QD-TTg (30 Jun 2026) adjusting the national land use plan, re-read for the changes in agricultural and non-agricultural land against Resolution 39/2021. Same URL as NTS-15. Type: law (plan).
  • NGF-21. Islam, M.R., Garcia, S.C., Sarker, N.R., Islam, M.A., Clark, C.E.F. (2023). Napier grass (Pennisetum purpureum Schum) management strategies for dairy and meat production in the tropics and subtropics: yield and nutritive value. Frontiers in Plant Science 14: 1269976. doi 10.3389/fpls.2023.1269976. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • NGF-22. Devlamynck, R., Fernandes de Souza, M., Michels, E. and others (2021). Agronomic and Environmental Performance of Lemna minor Cultivated on Agricultural Wastewater Streams: A Practical Approach. Sustainability 13(3): 1570. doi 10.3390/su13031570. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • NGF-23. Roman, B., Brennan, R.A., Lambert, J.D. (2021). Duckweed protein supports the growth and organ development of mice: a feeding study comparison to conventional casein protein. Journal of Food Science. doi 10.1111/1750-3841.15635. Claim of 5 to 10 times crop protein yields. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract claim).
  • NGF-24. Lerdlattaporn, R., Phalakornkule, C., Trakulvichean, S. and others (2020). Implementing Circular Economy Concept by Converting Cassava Pulp and Wastewater to Biogas for Sustainable Production in Starch Industry. Research Square preprint. doi 10.21203/rs.3.rs-103700/v1. Plant data (6,560 m3 per day; COD 12,184 mg per L; biogas); Thai national biogas 2014; COD range. Type: preprint (excerpts).
  • NGF-25. Zhu, W., Lestander, T.A., Orberg, H. and others (2015, online 2013). Cassava stems: a new resource to increase food and fuel production. GCB Bioenergy 7(1): 72-83. doi 10.1111/gcbb.12112. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • NGF-26. Wei, M., Zhu, W., Xie, H., Lestander, T.A., Xiong, S. (2015). Cassava stem wastes as potential feedstock for fuel ethanol production: a basic parameter study. Renewable Energy 83: 970-978. doi 10.1016/j.renene.2015.05.054. Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • NGF-27. Kaewwinud, N., Khokhajaikiat, P., Boonma, A. (2017). Effect of moisture and region of cut on cassava stalk properties in biomass applications. Research in Agricultural Engineering 63(1): 23-28. doi 10.17221/70/2015-rae. 30% of stalks kept for planting (citing FAO 2008). Type: peer-reviewed (abstract).
  • NGF-28. Ngan, D.T.M., Ghi, T.N., Tien, H.V. (2024). Drivers of Food Waste Habits at Household Level in Vietnam. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning 19(7). doi 10.18280/ijsdp.190713. Cites UNEP Food Waste Index 2021: 76 kg per person per year. Type: peer-reviewed (citation snippet).
  • NGF-29. Prayitno, P., Rulianah, S. (2022). Production of biogas using AnF2B reactor from cassava starch wastewater with consortium bacteria as biocatalyst. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 969: 012003. doi 10.1088/1755-1315/969/1/012003. COD 7,000 to 30,000 mg per L. Type: conference paper.
  • NGF-30. Ninh Binh rural development coordination office (31 May 2019). Sử dụng thức ăn thừa để chăn nuôi lợn, nguy cơ lây lan dịch bệnh cao. https://vpdpnongthonmoi.ninhbinh.gov.vn/nha-nong-can-biet/su-dung-thuc-an-thua-de-chan-nuoi-lon-nguy-co-lay-lan-dich-benh-cao-243.html . Veterinary Department advice; no legal ban. Type: gov (provincial).
  • NGF-31. Nông nghiệp và Môi trường (30 Jun 2026). Nhiên liệu xanh đưa nông nghiệp vào chuỗi giá trị mới. https://nongnghiepmoitruong.vn/nhien-lieu-xanh-dua-nong-nghiep-vao-chuoi-gia-tri-moi-d819098.html . E10 rollout; E15 and E20; residues as future feedstock; enzyme cost. Type: press (ministry-affiliated).
  • NGF-32. Tạp chí Công Thương (29 Mar 2017). Bài toán nguyên liệu cho sản xuất cồn ethanol. https://tapchicongthuong.vn/bai-toan-nguyen-lieu-cho-san-xuat-con-ethanol-46864.htm . 2G ethanol potential 10.9 billion litres. Type: press (MOIT journal).
  • NGF-33. C&EN (December 2023). Clariant is latest firm to pull out of cellulosic ethanol. https://cen.acs.org/business/biobased-chemicals/Clariant-latest-firm-pull-cellulosic/101/web/2023/12 . Podari capacity and cost; earlier exits. Type: trade press.
  • NGF-34. Clariant (6 Dec 2023). Clariant shuts its sunliquid bioethanol plant in Romania. https://www.clariant.com/en/Corporate/News/2023/12/Clariant-shuts-its-sunliquid-bioethanol-plant-in-Romania . Reasons; CHF 110 M impairment. Type: company.
  • NGF-35. van der Kley, D. (January 2026). China publishes model project list for "Non-Grain Bio-based Materials Industry". Substack newsletter. https://dirkvanderkley.substack.com/p/china-publishes-model-project-list . Summary of the MIIT and MARA list. Type: secondary analysis (newsletter).
  • NGF-36. Diep, N.Q., Sakanishi, K., Nakagoshi, N., Fujimoto, S., Minowa, T. (2015). Potential for rice straw ethanol production in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Renewable Energy 74: 456-463. doi 10.1016/j.renene.2014.08.051. Lead only (closed access). Type: peer-reviewed.
  • NGF-37. Nguyen, T.H., Doan, Q.V., Khan, A. and others (2024). The potential of agricultural and livestock wastes as a source of biogas in Vietnam: energetic, economic and environmental evaluation. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 199: 114440. doi 10.1016/j.rser.2024.114440. Lead only (closed access). Type: peer-reviewed.
  • NGF-38. Ding, K., Liu, D., Chen, X. and others (2024). Scalable lignocellulosic biorefineries: technoeconomic review for efficient fermentable sugars production. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 202: 114692. doi 10.1016/j.rser.2024.114692. Lead only (closed access). Type: peer-reviewed review.
  • NGF-39. Người Lao Động, via Tuổi Trẻ (15 Sep 2025). Tiềm năng phát điện từ khí sinh học. https://tuoitre.vn/nld/tiem-nang-phat-dien-tu-khi-sinh-hoc-196250914210402823.htm . No national biogas figure; large farms over 21% of the herd in Thanh Hoa; generator cost about USD 2,000 per kW. Type: press.
  • NGF-calc. AltProtein Vietnam NGF arithmetic (this work): ngf_calc.py, 24 September 2026. Type: our estimate.

AQF: Aquaculture and aquafeed futures (wave 4) (36)

HUB: Spatial hubs (wave 4) (29)

VIS: Vision benchmarks and foresight practice (wave 5) (50)

Nguồn được trích dẫn trong trang

Toàn bộ nguồn (Phụ lục T)

  1. MAC-04 USDA FAS GAIN. Vietnam: Oilseeds and Products Annual, report VM2026-0006 (Nguyen Linh). 15 Apr 2026