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Chương 13 · Phần III

13. Consumers and new proteins: what people say and what they buy

Vietnamese survey respondents are open to plant-based meat, yet only 15% intend to eat less meat and only 3% eat it weekly, and imported analogues cost 12 to 18 times chicken or eggs per gram of protein. Plant milk is the one modern plant category at scale, and consumers want more protein choice in familiar dishes, not a meat replacement.

19 phút đọcÝ nghĩa các nhãn

Nội dung trang này bằng tiếng Anh. Đọc bản tóm tắt tiếng Việt

Trong trang này
  1. 13.1 The evidence is thin, and almost all of it is stated
  2. 13.2 Aware, curious, rarely buying
  3. 13.3 What would make people eat more, and why they would
  4. 13.4 Price: what people say, pay and face
  5. 13.5 What people actually buy
  6. 13.6 Who buys first
  7. 13.7 What happened abroad, and why it matters here
  8. 13.8 Words on the pack
  9. 13.9 What this means for the frontier

In one paragraph. Asked in an online survey, urban Vietnamese are aware of plant-based meat (90%), have often tried it (42%) and are the most willing in Southeast Asia to choose it at the same price as meat (74%). Yet only 15% intend to eat less meat, the lowest of six countries, and only 3% eat plant-based meat weekly, much of which is probably traditional mock meat. What people do tells a starker story. Imported analogues entered through bars, cafés and gourmet shops from 2019 and had left the shelves we audited by 2026; they cost 12 to 18 times chicken or eggs per gram of protein. The one modern plant category that sells at scale is plant milk, priced at or below dairy and made by local incumbents: online, the best-selling plant milk sells 60 to 79% of the litres of the best-selling dairy milk. Protein sells in that aisle only as a premium niche, and a protein claim on soy milk did not lift its sales. From 2027 a sugary-drink excise may fall on sweetened plant milks but not on dairy, so new plant milks should stay at or below 5 g of sugar per 100 ml. Twenty grams of protein from a chay wrapper costs more than a whole street meal. Abroad, plant-based meat peaked in 2020 to 2021, trial did not turn into habit, price parity on its own did not create growth and meat purchases did not fall; in the region, firms that launched branded analogues mostly went quiet or moved to private label. Vietnamese respondents ask for more variety, food they know how to cook, fewer additives and safer food, not a replacement for meat. That is a brief for ingredients inside familiar foods, with a numeric protein claim (10 g per 100 g for "high protein") where the food earns it.

13.1 The evidence is thin, and almost all of it is stated

We built a register of every consumer study with Vietnamese data on plant-based foods, meat reduction or new proteins (26 studies, D2. Consumer evidence). Only one large survey gives Vietnam numbers on plant-based meat: GFI APAC's "Decoding demand", run by The Good Growth Co. in 2023 on an online panel of 5,971 people in six countries, 1,049 of them in the Hanoi region and Ho Chi Minh City 1,2,3 . The rest are two commercial online panels (Rakuten Insight 2021 and 2025), one solid academic urban survey (Delley et al., n = 616) and about ten small student or convenience samples 4,5,6 . No Vietnamese study of new proteins reaches our top quality grade (a probability sample with a full method). The one national probability survey that touches the subject, the Diet Quality Questionnaire (Gallup, 2021), asks only whether people ate soy foods or meat the day before: 40% of adults had eaten beans, tofu or soy milk (Protein diet, Chay baseline) 7,8 . We found no choice experiment, auction or in-store price test for plant-based meat or milk in Vietnam, and no household purchase panel data for these categories. Marketplace sales counters, which we read for this report, are the nearest thing to purchase data (section 13.5). Every consumer number below should be read with that in mind.

13.2 Aware, curious, rarely buying

Measure (GFI, 2023, online panel)Vietnam (n = 1,049)Six-country averageSource
Have heard of plant-based meat90%91%2
Have ever tried it42%47%2
Eat it monthly or more20%20%2
Eat it weekly or more3%5%2
Intend to reduce meat15% (lowest of six)21%2
Would choose it at the same price as meat74% (highest of six)62%2

Aware, curious, rarely buying

Plant-based meat: share of online respondents, Vietnam (n = 1,049) against the six-country average, 2023

Aware, curious, rarely buyingGrouped bars: in Vietnam 90% have heard of plant-based meat, 42% have tried it, 20% eat it monthly, 3% weekly and 15% intend to reduce meat; six-country averages are 91, 47, 20, 5 and 21%.Vietnam (n = 1,049)Six-country average0%20%40%60%80%100%Share of online respondents (%)Heard of plant-based meat, Vietnam: 90%90%Heard of plant-based meat, Six-country average: 91%91%Heard ofplant-based meatEver tried, Vietnam: 42%42%Ever tried, Six-country average: 47%47%Ever triedEat monthly or more, Vietnam: 20%20%Eat monthly or more, Six-country average: 20%20%Eat monthly or moreEat weekly or more, Vietnam: 3%3%Eat weekly or more, Six-country average: 5%5%Eat weekly or moreIntend to reduce meat, Vietnam: 15%15%Intend to reduce meat, Six-country average: 21%21%Intend to reducemeatNote that "plant-based meat" probably includes traditional mock meat for many Vietnamese respondents.

Stated evidence from an online panel in the Hanoi region and Ho Chi Minh City.

Nguồn: 2

Xem số liệuẨn số liệu
Aware, curious, rarely buying
StageVietnam (%)Six-country average (%)
Heard of plant-based meat9091
Ever tried4247
Eat monthly or more2020
Eat weekly or more35
Intend to reduce meat1521
3%
Tỷ lệ người được khảo sát ăn thịt thực vật hằng tuần
2023
Bối cảnh và nguồn

90% have heard of plant-based meat, 42% have tried it, 20% eat it monthly. Much of this is probably traditional mock meat. Same survey as above. 2,3

15%
Tỷ lệ người được khảo sát trực tuyến ở đô thị dự định giảm ăn thịt
2023
Bối cảnh và nguồn

GFI APAC survey, online panel in the Hanoi region and Ho Chi Minh City (n = 1,049); lowest of six Southeast Asian countries (average 21%). Respondents report 43.3 meat-eating occasions a month. 2

Three cautions apply. First, modern analogues were almost absent from Vietnamese shops, so many respondents probably read "plant-based meat" as traditional mock meat; the Vietnamese questionnaire wording is not public (our inference) . Second, Vietnamese respondents report 43.3 meat-eating occasions a month, second only to Thailand, and an urban survey found only 4% flexitarians among meat eaters 2,6 . Demand is for more kinds of protein, not for less meat. Third, the much-quoted "5% to 63%" is a regional, hypothetical figure: 5% of all six-country respondents eat plant-based meat weekly, and 63% say they would eat it "always" or "often" if all their concerns were resolved. No Vietnam split is public 2,9 . It is not a forecast.

Rakuten's broader category ("plant-based alternatives", mostly plant milk) shows Vietnam with the highest trial rate of any Asian market (86% in 2021, 92% in 2025), but the share of Vietnamese triers who have tried meat alternatives stayed at 47 to 49% 4,5 .

13.3 What would make people eat more, and why they would

Asked what would make them eat more plant-based meat, Vietnamese respondents chose affordability less often than any other country (38% against an average of 47%) and chose availability (31%), variety (29%), fewer additives (27%, highest of six) and knowing how to cook it (22%, highest of six) more often. They were the least likely to want a product that "tasted more like meat" (23%) 2 . Rakuten's 2025 panel agrees: "difficult to find where I live" is the top Vietnamese barrier (33%) and cost is cited by only 21%, the lowest of six markets 5 .

Health is the first reason people give in every source (55% of Rakuten's Vietnamese panel say plant-based products are healthier) 5 . Plant-milk makers already sell on that motive, citing the new Law on Disease Prevention and the Ministry of Health's Ten tips on nutrition in sponsored articles 10 . Food safety is the motive specific to Vietnam: urban Vietnamese rate "a very high level of food safety" at 5.35 on a 6-point scale, against 4.59 in Switzerland, and cut red meat over fears of hormones and drug residues 6,11 . Environmental concern is weak: it ranks sixth of seven Rakuten reasons and had a small negative effect in one Hanoi student sample 5,12 . Family influence is strong, and meat is "non-negotiable" at special meals 6,11 .

Lower stated price sensitivity should not be over-read. It sits next to a revealed price gap of an order of magnitude (section 13.4), and in a Hanoi study price had the largest effect of any factor on attitudes to new proteins 13 .

13.4 Price: what people say, pay and face

Stated. GFI asked respondents to choose between plant-based meat and meat for a dish as the relative price moved. At parity, 74% of Vietnamese respondents chose plant-based meat; at 20% dearer, 64%; at 50% dearer, 47%; at double, 26% 2 . GFI itself says this shows relative interest, not willingness to pay. For design, it says: reach roughly price parity with the meat replaced, because interest halves by +50%. 74% at parity; 47% at +50%; 26% at double

Stated interest halves by +50%

Share who would choose plant-based meat over meat for a dish, by price relative to meat, 2023

Stated interest halves by +50%Lines: Vietnamese respondents choosing plant-based meat fall from 88% at 20% cheaper to 74% at parity, 64% at +20%, 47% at +50% and 26% at double; the six-country average runs below at every point.VietnamSix-country average0%20%40%60%80%100%Would choose plant-based meat over meat (%)20% cheaperParity+20%+50%+100%Price of plant-based meat relative to meatImported analogues on Vietnamese shelves cost 12 to 18 times eggs and chicken per gram of protein Far off this axisOff the scaleImported analogues onVietnamese shelves cost 12 to18 times eggs and chicken pergram of proteinVietnam, 20% cheaper: 88% would choose plant-based meat88%Vietnam, parity: 74% would choose plant-based meat74%Vietnam, +20%: 64% would choose plant-based meat64%Vietnam, +50%: 47% would choose plant-based meat47%Vietnam, +100%: 26% would choose plant-based meat26%Six-country average, 20% cheaper: 80% would choose plant-based meat80%Six-country average, parity: 62% would choose plant-based meat62%Six-country average, +20%: 47% would choose plant-based meat47%Six-country average, +50%: 35% would choose plant-based meat35%Six-country average, +100%: 22% would choose plant-based meat22%

Stated choice, not willingness to pay (GFI).

Nguồn: 2,14

Xem số liệuẨn số liệu
Stated interest halves by +50%
Price relative to meatVietnam (%)Six-country average (%)
20% cheaper8880
Parity7462
+20%6447
+50%4735
+100%2622

Revealed. The imported analogue on Vietnamese shelves in September 2026 cost VND 542,000 to 622,000 per 100 g of protein, 12 to 18 times eggs and chicken (Protein diet) 14 . The clearest evidence that urban Vietnamese pay a premium for a plant product is café oat milk: about 100 speciality cafés charged VND 10,000 to 15,000 more per cup for oat milk in 2023 15 .

Tested. None in Vietnam for plant-based meat, blends or plant milk. The nearest tested Vietnamese evidence is about safety and GMO labels: a real-money auction put the premium for safer pork at 20% 16 , and another found an 84% premium for soymilk labelled non-GM 17 (Frontier demand).

What 20 g of protein costs. Re-reading the retail audit for demand (D3. Retail demand signals), the median cost of 20 g of protein, a meal's protein, is about VND 13,000 from tofu or dried textured soy, VND 56,000 from a frozen meat analogue, VND 74,000 from a filled chay wrapper and VND 91,000 from plant milk 14 . From eggs or chicken it is VND 7,000 to 9,000 and from lean pork about VND 14,000 (Protein diet). A street rice plate with meat costs VND 29,000 to 35,000 in Ho Chi Minh City 18 . So the protein in most packaged alternatives costs more than a whole meal. The exception is bulk: dry soy-and-gluten pieces bought online in 1 kg bags give 20 g of protein for about VND 1,800 to 6,000, the cheapest protein in our retail data (on a borrowed label protein range; our calculation) 19,14 . about VND 74,000 against VND 29,000 to 35,000 for a meal

What 20 g of protein costs, against a meal

Median VND for 20 g of protein by product type (retail audit, label protein) and retail benchmarks

What 20 g of protein costs, against a mealLog-scale bars: 20 g of protein costs about 7,000 to 14,000 VND from eggs, chicken, textured soy, tofu or lean pork, inside a canteen protein budget; 56,000 to 175,000 VND from packaged alternatives, above the 29,000 to 35,000 VND price of a street meal.Benchmark (chapter 11)Retail audit median, label proteinRetail benchmarks (shaded)5,00010,00020,00050,000100,000200,000VND for 20 g of protein (log scale)Canteen protein-dish budget: VND 7,500 to 14,000Canteen protein-dish budget, 7,500 to 14,000Street rice plate with meat: VND 29,000 to 35,000Street rice plate with meat, 29,000 to 35,000EggsEggs: VND 6,900 for 20 g of protein Basis: Benchmark (chapter 11)6,900Chicken breastChicken breast: VND 9,000 for 20 g of protein Basis: Benchmark (chapter 11)9,000Dried textured soyDried textured soy: VND 12,900 for 20 g of protein Basis: Retail audit median, label protein12,900TofuTofu: VND 13,300 for 20 g of protein Basis: Retail audit median, label protein13,300Lean porkLean pork: VND 14,200 for 20 g of protein Basis: Benchmark (chapter 11)14,200Frozen meat analogueFrozen meat analogue: VND 55,700 for 20 g of protein Basis: Retail audit median, label protein55,700Ready mealReady meal: VND 59,500 for 20 g of protein Basis: Retail audit median, label protein59,500Canned analogueCanned analogue: VND 64,200 for 20 g of protein Basis: Retail audit median, label protein64,200Filled chay wrapperFilled chay wrapper: VND 73,800 for 20 g of protein Basis: Retail audit median, label protein73,800Plant milkPlant milk: VND 91,200 for 20 g of protein Basis: Retail audit median, label protein91,200Plant yoghurt or creamerPlant yoghurt or creamer: VND 105,800 for 20 g of protein Basis: Retail audit median, label protein105,800Vegan cheeseVegan cheese: VND 175,200 for 20 g of protein Basis: Retail audit median, label protein175,200

Our calculation: price per 100 g of protein divided by 5. Benchmarks from chapter 11.

Nguồn: 14,20,18,21

Xem số liệuẨn số liệu
What 20 g of protein costs, against a meal
ProductBasisVND for 20 g of protein
Eggsbenchmark6,900
Chicken breastbenchmark9,000
Dried textured soyaudit12,900
Tofuaudit13,300
Lean porkbenchmark14,200
Frozen meat analogueaudit55,700
Ready mealaudit59,500
Canned analogueaudit64,200
Filled chay wrapperaudit73,800
Plant milkaudit91,200
Plant yoghurt or creameraudit105,800
Vegan cheeseaudit175,200
Canteen protein-dish budget (band)benchmark7,500 to 14,000
Street rice plate with meat (band)benchmark29,000 to 35,000

13.5 What people actually buy

Plant-based meat has not found a footing. Mintel logged no plant-based meat launches in Vietnam from 2022 to the second quarter of 2023 22 . Beyond Meat (2019, a craft-beer bar), OmniFoods (gourmet retail 2022; Starbucks Vietnam's summer 2023 menu), Next Meats and Heura came through restaurants and gourmet shops 23,24,25 . None was on the shelves of the 11 stores we audited in September 2026, including the two gourmet chains that stocked them in 2022; the only extruded modern analogue was one Italian brand in one gourmet store 14 . CP's Meat Zero chay range is listed on Kamereo, a platform supplying restaurants and cafés, but it was not orderable in September 2026 and its eight listings show 386 units (80 kg) sold in all; no Meat Zero, Beyond or Omni listing appeared on Lazada or Tiki 26,27,19 . A local startup (VMEAT) shows no activity after 2022, and a Korean startup backed by a Vietnamese fund in 2024 shows no Vietnam launch 28,29,30 . Meanwhile incumbents extend their chay lines: Vissan launched two chay products for Vu Lan 2026 31 .

Plant milk is the category that sells. Vinasoy's soy-milk revenue was about VND 4,800 billion in 2025, implying a branded soy-milk market of about VND 5,300 billion (USD 204 million) (our derivation from Vinasoy's 90.6% share of branded soy milk in 2024; the supply chapters' figure of about 80% refers to all soy milk on an older base) 32,33,34 . Vinasoy sold 264 million litres in 2025 (up 4%); its revenue rose 14%, with Veyo nut milks up 50%, premium Fami up 36% and e-commerce sales up 135% 35,36 . Plant milks were 51 of the 186 products in the retail audit, across 14 brands 14 . Vinamilk reported double-digit growth in nut milk in early 2026 37 . Vietnam imported USD 3.9 billion of tree nuts in 2025 (up 40%), which USDA attributes partly to plant-milk demand among younger consumers 38,39 .

Household purchases online now show the scale. On Lazada and Tiki, read without logging in on 25 September 2026, the best-selling plant milk sells 60% and 79% of the litres of the best-selling dairy milk; domestic nut and soy milks lead, and imported oat is under 2% of the plant-milk litres read (cumulative counters on 96 listings; our calculation) 19,40 . Kitchens buy differently: on Kamereo, plant milks are about 4% of milk litres and 1.5 to 2.1% of milk protein, and the plant best seller is imported Oatside oat milk, bought for coffee, not protein 27 . Inside Vietnam's largest dairy company plant milk is still small: plant-based products were 1.30% of Vinamilk's range in FAIRR's 2024 index, with no time-bound target 41 , and Vinamilk's 2025 annual report positions plant milk as a nutrition product that is "no longer seen as a substitute for animal milk" 42 .

Search behaviour tells the same story. From 2019 to 2026, Google search interest in sữa hạt (nut or seed milk) averaged 17 times that in thịt thực vật (plant meat). Sữa hạt has roughly tripled since 2019; thịt thực vật peaked in 2021 to 2022, has fallen by about 60% since, and its top query is "what is plant meat?". Thuần chay (vegan) rose about tenfold from 2019 to 2024 43 . 17 times

Vietnamese search for nut milk, not plant meat

Google Trends annual mean index, Vietnam, one comparison set, 2019 to 2026 (2026 to September)

Vietnamese search for nut milk, not plant meatLines: search interest in sữa hạt (nut milk) rises from about 20 in 2019 to about 70 in 2026, while thịt thực vật (plant meat) stays between 1 and 5.sữa hạt (nut milk)thịt thực vật (plant meat)sữa yến mạch (oat milk)đồ chay (vegetarian food)thuần chay (vegan)020406080100Google Trends index (relative within the set)20192020202120222023202420252026to Sepsữa hạt (nut milk), 2019: index 20.2sữa hạt (nut milk), 2020: index 32.9sữa hạt (nut milk), 2021: index 38.9sữa hạt (nut milk), 2022: index 44.1sữa hạt (nut milk), 2023: index 82.3sữa hạt (nut milk), 2024: index 59.3sữa hạt (nut milk), 2025: index 63.0sữa hạt (nut milk), 2026: index 69.6thịt thực vật (plant meat), 2019: index 1.4thịt thực vật (plant meat), 2020: index 2.2thịt thực vật (plant meat), 2021: index 4.2thịt thực vật (plant meat), 2022: index 5.0thịt thực vật (plant meat), 2023: index 2.7thịt thực vật (plant meat), 2024: index 2.2thịt thực vật (plant meat), 2025: index 2.0thịt thực vật (plant meat), 2026: index 1.7sữa yến mạch (oat milk), 2019: index 4.2sữa yến mạch (oat milk), 2020: index 6.8sữa yến mạch (oat milk), 2021: index 6.6sữa yến mạch (oat milk), 2022: index 5.4sữa yến mạch (oat milk), 2023: index 5.2sữa yến mạch (oat milk), 2024: index 4.8sữa yến mạch (oat milk), 2025: index 7.0sữa yến mạch (oat milk), 2026: index 10.7đồ chay (vegetarian food), 2019: index 6.9đồ chay (vegetarian food), 2020: index 8.2đồ chay (vegetarian food), 2021: index 7.3đồ chay (vegetarian food), 2022: index 9.2đồ chay (vegetarian food), 2023: index 9.9đồ chay (vegetarian food), 2024: index 8.6đồ chay (vegetarian food), 2025: index 8.2đồ chay (vegetarian food), 2026: index 8.4thuần chay (vegan), 2019: index 0.7thuần chay (vegan), 2020: index 1.0thuần chay (vegan), 2021: index 1.4thuần chay (vegan), 2022: index 2.8thuần chay (vegan), 2023: index 4.7thuần chay (vegan), 2024: index 6.5thuần chay (vegan), 2025: index 6.2thuần chay (vegan), 2026: index 5.0sữa hạt (nut milk) 69.6thịt thực vật (plant meat) 1.7sữa yến mạch (oat milk) 10.7đồ chay (vegetarian food) 8.4thuần chay (vegan) 5.020.2

Relative index within the set; not volumes.

Nguồn: 43

Xem số liệuẨn số liệu
Vietnamese search for nut milk, not plant meat
Yearsữa hạt (nut milk)thịt thực vật (plant meat)sữa yến mạch (oat milk)đồ chay (vegetarian food)thuần chay (vegan)
201920.21.44.26.90.7
202032.92.26.88.21.0
202138.94.26.67.31.4
202244.15.05.49.22.8
202382.32.75.29.94.7
202459.32.24.88.66.5
202563.02.07.08.26.2
202669.61.710.78.45.0

Why plant milk worked and plant meat did not (our inference).

FactorPlant milkPlant-based meat
Price against the animal productMass soy milk about VND 22,900 per litre, below cow milk at VND 33,000 to 45,000; about VND 25,200 in 2028 if the sugary-drink excise applies and is passed on 14,15,4412 to 18 times chicken or eggs per gram of protein 14
MakerLocal incumbents with plants and national distributionImports and micro-startups
FamiliaritySoy milk long established, made at home tooBurger and sausage formats; the familiar version is cheap đồ chay
Role in the dietA healthy addition, a children's drink, a coffee ingredientSold as a replacement to people who do not want to cut meat
ChannelTraditional and modern trade, cafés, e-commerce (mostly incumbents' official stores)Restaurants and gourmet shops only

A tax that may fall on plant milk but not on dairy. From 1 January 2027 drinks above 5 g of total sugar per 100 ml that count as nước giải khát (soft drinks) under the standard TCVN 12828:2019 pay an 8% excise, rising to 10% from 2028, and since 1 January 2026 they have lost the 2% VAT cut; milk and dairy products are exempt 45,46,47,48 . Cereal milks are named in the standard's scope. Whether soy and nut milks are in scope is unresolved, and we found no ruling and no industry request for one 47,49 . Core Fami soy milks carry 6.5 to 9.3 g of sugar per 100 ml, above the line 50,44 . If the tax applies and is passed on in full, mass soy milk would cost about VND 25,200 per litre in 2028, still 24 to 44% below cow milk (our calculation) 14,15 . The finding that plant milk sells at or below dairy prices survives; the design rule for new plant milks is to stay at or below 5 g of total sugar per 100 ml. Policy otherwise leaves plant milk out: the 2026 dairy strategy (Decision 309/QĐ-TTg) does not mention it and says school milk programmes use "only fresh milk" 51,52 . 8% (2027); 10% (2028)

Plant milk did not succeed on protein, and protein now sells in it only as a niche. Most plant milks carry 0.7 to 2.5 g of protein per 100 ml 14 . Vinamilk's high-protein nut milk (5 g per 100 ml, mainly pea protein), and searches for it, were the first sign that protein content itself sells in this aisle 53,43 . Purchases now confirm it, as a premium niche. At Vinamilk's Lazada store it shows about 16,100 cases sold (about 70,300 L and 3.5 t of protein): about 11% of the Vinamilk nut-milk litres read but 29% of their protein. It costs 24% more per litre and about 37% as much per gram of protein (cumulative counters; our calculation) 19,54 . A protein claim alone does not lift sales. Vinamilk's GoldSoy soy milk, sold with "up to 3.2 g protein per 100 ml", sells less than unclaimed soy milks on Lazada (3,100 cases against 14,800 for a walnut soy milk at 2.0 g, although GoldSoy costs 39% less per litre) and on the Kamereo kitchen platform (2,609 units against 5,758 and 5,828 for two dearer unsweetened soy milks) 19,40,27 . The same company promotes its high-protein dairy milk as "more easily absorbed than plant-origin protein" 55 .

13.6 Who buys first

The likely first buyers are urban 25 to 44 year olds who eat a lot of meat and want variety, and urban households anxious about health and food safety, not students. GFI's "Curious" segment (aware, not yet tried, leaning towards cutting red meat) is 43% of the Vietnamese sample, and about two-thirds of the region's most enthusiastic buyers are over 35 2,22 . Delley et al. place 65% of urban meat eaters in three segments (anxious, suggestible, proactive) that are open to change for health and safety reasons 6 . Students, the focus of most Vietnamese papers, have low incomes and are regionally the least aware 12,2 .

As a ceiling rather than an estimate: if the 3% weekly rate held for all 39.4 million urban residents, weekly eaters would number about 1.2 million (our calculation) 56,2 . The real number is smaller, because the panel is online adults in two cities, stated frequency overstates purchase and much of it is probably mock meat.

13.7 What happened abroad, and why it matters here

Vietnam can learn from markets that ran the modern plant-based experiment first. Most of this evidence is general or from comparable Asian markets (D7. Global benchmarks).

  • Peak and plateau. US plant-based meat sales fell from USD 1.4 billion (2021) to USD 1.0 billion (2025) and units from 281 million to 173 million; the category's share of meat sales halved from 1.4% to about 0.7% 57,58 . UK and Dutch volumes fell; Germany was flat 59,60,61,62 . USD 1.4 billion to 1.0 billion
  • The ceiling. After about ten years in the most favourable markets, modern plant-based meat reached 3.1% (Germany) and 4.1% (Netherlands) of pre-packaged meat volume, and well under 1% of total meat value. Monthly buyers were 8.6 to 9.7% of households 60,61,62 . 3.1 to 4.1%
  • Trial without habit. US household penetration fell from 19 to 20% to 11% while the repeat rate stayed near 60%; 40% of buyers bought only once 57,63 .
  • Price matters, parity is not enough. Demand is price elastic (about -0.8 to -1.6 in US scanner data), yet Dutch retailers' price-parity pledges left the plant share of protein sold flat at about 42 to 43% from 2023 to 2025 while plant-based meat volume fell 64,65,66 .
  • Little displacement. Most US plant-based meat buyers keep buying meat, and household ground-meat purchases did not fall after a first plant-based purchase; plant milk, by contrast, displaces 0.43 to 0.93 units of dairy per unit bought 63,67,68 . An analysis of 1.2 million transactions in seven restaurants in the US, Canada and Australia (2026) found essentially no evidence that modern alternative proteins reduced meat purchases 69 .
  • Formats that hold up are cheap and ingredient-like (mince, strips, pieces, sausages, tofu); branded burgers lost ground 60,61,62,57 .
  • Asia with a vegetarian tradition did not become an analogue market. Thai meat alternatives were USD 21 million against USD 803 million of dairy alternatives (2020); Taiwan, with about 3 million vegetarians, had USD 36 million of modern plant-based retail sales (2021); Japanese soy milk is near record output while soy meat contracted 70,71,72,73 . Beyond Meat suspended its China operations in 2025 74 . Where Western-style products did sell in Asia, they were hidden inside familiar dishes at low prices, such as OmniPork dumplings at a Taiwanese chain 75 .
  • Regional firms moved away from their own consumer brands. Of 24 alternative-protein startups and scale-ups that entered, tested or left Vietnam and Southeast Asia from 2019 to 2026, 7 are active, 4 pivoted, 2 exited and 11 show no activity. Every pivot moved towards private label, co-manufacturing or non-food uses: TiNDLE to private label from 2026, GOOD Meat to a 3% cultivated blend, Vow to co-manufacturing. Restaurant-launched brands such as Karana, Float Foods and Phuture went quiet 76,77,78,79,80,81 . TiNDLE's co-founder gave the reason: "no real underlying consumer demand to shift away from meat" 76,82 . In Vietnam none of four meat-analogue startups shows activity after 2022, while all three makers of traditional or whole-food formats (mushroom floss, cashew cheese, tempeh) are trading 83,84,29 (firm_outcomes.csv; Channels).

The US reference case: boom and fade

US retail plant-based meat and seafood: sales (USD billion) and share of total meat sales (%)

The US reference case: boom and fadeLine: US plant-based meat and seafood sales fell from USD 1.4 billion in 2021 to 1.0 billion in 2025, and their share of total meat sales from 1.4% to about 0.7%.0.00.40.81.21.6Retail sales, USD billion20212022202320242025US plant-based meat and seafood, 2021: USD 1.4 billion Share of total meat sales: 1.4% Units: 281 millionUSD 1.4 bnUS plant-based meat and seafood, 2023: USD 1.2 billion Share of total meat sales: not reported Units: 195 millionUSD 1.2 bnUS plant-based meat and seafood, 2024: USD 1.1 billion Share of total meat sales: 0.82% Units: 194 millionUSD 1.1 bnUS plant-based meat and seafood, 2025: USD 1.0 billion Share of total meat sales: 0.7% Units: 173 millionUSD 1.0 bnShare of total meat sales1.4%not reported0.82%0.7%Note: household penetration fell from 19% (2021) to 11% (2025) while repeat stayed near 60%.

SPINS data published by GFI.

Nguồn: 57,58

Xem số liệuẨn số liệu
The US reference case: boom and fade
YearSales (USD billion)Share of total meat sales (%)Units (million)
20211.41.4281
20231.2not reported195
20241.10.82194
20251.00.7173

The lesson for Vietnam, where the price gap is ten times larger than in the markets that stalled, is not to copy the branded-analogue model (our inference) .

13.8 Words on the pack

Chay is the incumbent word: it appears in 87 of 186 audited product names, and it carries Buddhist and traditional associations and a cheap, low-protein reputation 14,43 . Thuần chay (vegan) is the rising modern word. Thịt thực vật (plant meat) and đạm thực vật (plant protein) were media words of 2021 to 2022 and have faded 43 . Incumbents use thực vật (plant) for modern dairy alternatives and as a protein claim ("100% protein từ thực vật" on one frozen dumpling) 14 .

The protein claim is already defined. A voluntary national standard taken from Codex, TCVN 14429:2025, sets "source of protein" at 5 g and "high protein" (cao đạm) at 10 g per 100 g of food, or 2.5 g and 5 g per 100 kcal 85,86 . Giàu đạm (rich in protein), the phrase an earlier draft used, is not a defined term, so it is judged only against the rule that labels be truthful. The per 100 kcal route lets watery foods claim "high" at 4 to 5 g per 100 g, so a maker who wants the word to carry weight should print the number (for example "10 g đạm/100 g") on the front. The claim needs no registration and no advertising approval, but function claims such as "builds muscle" have no approval route for ordinary foods 85,87,88,89 . Protein itself has had to appear on non-exempt pre-packaged labels since 1 January 2026 (Circular 29/2023, now Circular 30/2026); foods from small food businesses, which cover most wet-market chay, are exempt 90,91 . 10 g per 100 g

The shelf already qualifies without claiming. Of 43 audited plant-protein foods with a label value, 20 (47%) meet the "source" condition per 100 g and 7 (16%) meet "high", all seven of them frozen analogues; none carries a claim. Counting the per 100 kcal route, 27 of 38 and 13 of 38 would qualify (our calculation) 14,85 . The protein claim is an open position, not a regulatory problem.

Fake chay does not undercut it today. We found no confirmed case of meat in a Vietnamese chay product from 2015 to 2026; chay's live trust problems are borax, microbes and unlabelled goods (Chay baseline) 92,93 . A protein claim is credible when it rides on a registered maker, a full label and a short additive list; "verified meat-free", bought as a PCR screen, is a secondary reassurance 94,95 .

No study has tested which words Vietnamese shoppers trust, and the one revealed test is discouraging: a protein claim on soy milk did not lift its sales (section 13.5). Our inference is that chay works for religious and periodic occasions, while a numeric protein claim with a food-safety signal is the more promising frame for meat eaters, provided the food is dense enough to make it (10 g per 100 g) . The words around fermentation and cultivated meat are in Frontier demand.

13.9 What this means for the frontier

  • Make products for the meals people already eat. Vietnamese respondents asked for variety and cooking know-how more than any other country and for meat-like taste less than any other.
  • Price per serving against the meat replaced. At parity or below for the mass market; interest halves by +50%.
  • Raise protein visibly (10 g or more per 100 g for meat-like foods, the "high protein" level of TCVN 14429:2025; 5 g or more per 100 ml for drinks), print the number, keep ingredient lists short and signal food safety.
  • Plant milk is the proven category. Barista milks for cà phê sữa đá (iced milk coffee), high-protein milks and local nut, seed and bean bases are the consumer openings with revealed demand. High-protein milks sell as a premium niche, not the volume line. A sugary-drink excise from 2027 may fall on sweetened plant milks but not on dairy, so design new plant milks at or below 5 g of total sugar per 100 ml.
  • Measure repeat, not launch. Abroad, trial did not turn into habit; ignore launch spikes. Marketplace counters are cumulative, so read them twice, a month apart, to get a rate.

For each reader.

  • Startups: do not launch premium imported-style analogues into gourmet channels expecting mass uptake; that route has been tried since 2019. In the region, brands placed on restaurant menus mostly went quiet or pivoted, while the Vietnamese survivors make familiar foods with little capital (Channels).
  • Investors: the revealed demand is in plant milk and in incumbents' chay lines; underwrite on repeat purchase and cost per gram of protein, not survey intent.
  • Manufacturers: protein content, food safety and fewer additives are open positions on the shelf; about half of the audited plant-protein foods could already claim "source of protein". Check whether your sweetened plant milks are nước giải khát and plan recipes at or below 5 g of sugar per 100 ml.
  • Research bodies: build tested-evidence capacity (sensory panels in Vietnamese dishes, choice experiments, label tests of numeric protein claims) instead of more small student surveys.
  • Policy makers: food-safety and healthy-protein messages match consumer motives; meat-reduction messages do not, since only 15% intend to cut meat. A written ruling on whether soy, nut and cereal milks above 5 g of sugar are nước giải khát, before 1 January 2027, would remove an avoidable uncertainty (Demand to frontier).
  • International organisations and funders: fund a Vietnamese choice experiment, an in-store price test and a label-trust test; each costs tens of thousands of USD (Demand to frontier).

Related: D2. Consumer evidence, D7. Global benchmarks, D3. Retail demand signals.

Nguồn được trích dẫn trong trang

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