17. Export demand: who abroad would buy Vietnamese alternative protein

In one paragraph. Vietnam exports almost no protein ingredients today: USD 0.52 million of textured and concentrated protein in 2023, against about USD 34 million of imports under the same code and USD 380 million of Chinese exports in 2024. What it does export at scale is wrapped food: USD 128.2 million of dumplings, wontons and other stuffed pasta in 2023, about 250 times its textured-protein exports, and in 2025 it out-supplied China and Thailand in the UK, the US and Korea. That base, with marine by-product peptides sold to European ingredient buyers, is what an export plant-protein product would join; plant-based brands are not. Abroad, retail demand for finished plant-based meat is falling in the United States and flat in Europe. European retailers' plant-protein targets are real but flat, and they are met with pulses, price cuts and hybrids made in Europe, not with Asian imports. Japanese and Korean buyers take textured protein from China and from their own plants. Vietnam's clearest structural advantage is tariffs: zero duty into the EU, the UK and Japan on lines where Thai and Chinese goods pay 6 to 13%, and a 17.5-point edge over China and Thailand on dumplings in Japan under CPTPP. The edge has conditions. EU-bound wrapped foods may contain at most 20% non-originating flour or starch by weight, Vietnam cannot ship meat-filled foods to the EU, the first buyers are importers and brand owners that ask for IFS or BRCGS certification, and CJ is moving part of its EU dumpling supply to Hungary. The United States now charges Vietnamese goods an extra 12.5%, EU rules restrict 32 meat names, and any novel ingredient needs its own approval abroad. On feed, seafood buyers' standards neither require nor reward microbial protein; the revealed pull is at home, where Vietnam imports about 9,200 t of inactive yeast a year for food and feed, 95% of it at about USD 1.1 per kg.

#17.1 What Vietnam exports now

Four points stand out VN-directTrung bình suy luận.

• Textured protein is untested as an export, and China sets its price (USD 380 million of HS 2106.10 exports in 2024, at about USD 2.13 per kg) ⁹ generalCao bộc lộ. The tariff edge is unused here: EU27 imports of textured protein from Vietnam were USD 0.01 million (3 t) in 2025, against USD 42.6 million from China ¹¹ VN-directCao bộc lộ.
• Vietnam already sells wrapped foods at scale. In 2025, partner-reported imports of stuffed pasta from Vietnam were USD 48.1 million in the US, 32.4 million in the EU27, 15.5 million in Japan, 14.8 million in the UK, 13.3 million in Korea and 10.6 million in Australia. Vietnam out-supplied China and Thailand in the UK, the US and Korea and was second to China in the EU, Japan and Australia ¹¹ VN-directCao bộc lộ. Most of these foods are filled with meat or seafood. The Vietnam-made plant items we found on Western shelves are vegetable-led, at 3.6 to 5.4 g of protein per 100 g: a supermarket own-brand jackfruit fillet and a vegetable bun in the UK, vegetable spring rolls in North America and a vegetable gyoza in Australia ^12,13 VN-directThấp bộc lộ.
• Certified traceable chains already sell protein ingredients to Europe. European ingredient buyers accept Vietnamese protein ingredients when they come from a certified, traceable seafood chain, which is the nearest template for a business-to-business novel protein export ^1,2.
• The firms that hold foreign buyers are food exporters, not plant-based brands. Wrapped-food, cashew and seafood exporters already have the buyers, certifications and cold or dry export logistics. We found no Vietnamese exporter of cashew milk or cashew cheese with verifiable volumes, and no Vietnamese seafood exporter selling plant-based seafood abroad ^14,2 VN-directTrung bình bộc lộ. One small mushroom and mycelium food maker reports exports of about 10% of its revenue to the UK, Australia, India and the Netherlands ¹⁵ VN-directThấp bộc lộ.

#17.2 What foreign markets are buying

Growth in rich markets is in plain, cheap, versatile formats: tofu, tempeh and seitan grew by almost 30% in Germany and the Netherlands in 2025, US "chunks, shreds and strips" grew in units while the category fell, and private label drives European volume ^18,28 generalCao bộc lộ. Brands are moving the same way: Singapore's TiNDLE switched to private label only from 2026 and sold its US business, its co-founder saying there is "no real underlying consumer demand to shift away from meat" ^30,31 generalTrung bình bộc lộ.

Retailer protein targets do not change this. Where they bite, retailers meet them with what is cheapest and closest: pulses, price parity and hybrids made in Europe, such as Albert Heijn's 15 hybrid products with field bean protein and Lidl's 60/40 beef and pea mince ^32,19 generalCao bộc lộ. Their direct food suppliers are European: Lidl's list of 751 food suppliers for 2025 deliveries has none in Asia, and Asian foods reach it through European importers and traders ³³ generalCao bộc lộ. So the targets are not a pull for Asian-made analogues, and a Vietnamese co-packer reaches a European discounter through an importer or brand owner that holds the contract (our reading) generalTrung bình suy luận. That is the segment a low-cost, tariff-free Asian contract manufacturer could serve. We found no verified case of a Western plant-based brand manufacturing in Vietnam, and no revealed sales data for China, Singapore, Australia or the Gulf R1. Open questions.

#17.3 Access: Vietnam's tariff edge, and four barriers

The tariff edge. Vietnamese textured protein, food preparations, plant drinks, soy sauce, stuffed pasta and prepared nuts enter the EU at 0% under the EU and Vietnam free trade agreement, against EU most-favoured-nation rates of 12.8% on textured protein, 9% plus an agricultural component on food preparations, 9.6% on plant drinks (duty-free for Vietnam since 1 January 2025) and 7 to 10.2% on prepared nuts, which Thai and Chinese goods pay ³⁴ VN-directCao bộc lộ. The UK gives the same preference ³⁵ VN-directCao bộc lộ. Japan admits Vietnamese textured vegetable protein free, against 10.6% for most countries and 6.6% for Chinese goods ³⁶ VN-directTrung bình bộc lộ. The EU and Thailand are still negotiating; the EU and Indonesia agreement was finalised in September 2025 but is not in force ^37,38 generalCao. 0% against 12.8%

The edge is largest on wrapped foods, where Vietnam already sells. Vietnamese dumplings and other stuffed pasta enter the EU at 0% against 8.3% plus EUR 6.10 (cooked) or EUR 17.10 (uncooked) per 100 kg, and Canada free against 11%. Japan charges Vietnamese stuffed pasta 3.8% under CPTPP in fiscal 2026 against 21.3% for China and Thailand, which have no concession: a 17.5-point edge on a line where Vietnam sold USD 15.5 million in 2025 ^39,40,41,11 VN-directCao bộc lộ. The UK charges 0% under both its Vietnam agreement and CPTPP ⁴² VN-directCao.

Barrier 1: the United States. Since 24 July 2026 the US has charged an extra 12.5% Section 301 tariff on Vietnamese goods, against 10% for Malaysia, Indonesia and India and 12.5% for Thailand; cashews and coconuts are exempt, prepared plant-based foods are not ⁴³ VN-directCao. The US is also the largest buyer of Vietnamese stuffed pasta (USD 48.1 million in 2025, up 71% on 2024), and that growth is now exposed to the surcharge ¹¹ VN-directCao bộc lộ. With US plant-based meat sales falling, this argues against US-first plant-based exports. 12.5%

Barrier 2: labels. Since 19 August 2026 the EU restricts 32 meat terms on plant-based foods, including "meat", "chicken", "pork", "beef", "bacon" and "steak"; "burger", "sausage" and "nuggets" remain allowed for now, with a committee vote due in December 2026 ⁴⁴ generalCao. Dairy names such as "milk" and "cheese" have been reserved for milk products since a 2017 court ruling ⁴⁵ generalTrung bình. Export packs need descriptive names ("soy protein strips", "shiitake dumplings").

Barrier 3: novel-food approvals abroad. A Vietnamese product made from soy, gluten, cashew, coconut, rice, mushrooms or jackfruit needs no pre-market approval in the EU or Singapore; a new fungal strain, a precision-fermented protein or cultivated meat does ^46,47 generalCao. Because Vietnam has no new-food route of its own (Rules), a Vietnamese novel-protein exporter would file its first dossier abroad. The US proposed tighter oversight of self-affirmed GRAS status on 10 August 2026 ⁴⁸ generalCao.

Barrier 4: rules of origin. The zero rate depends on the recipe. We read the origin protocol of the EU agreement; its rules match the UK and Vietnam text word for word ^49,50 VN-directCao bộc lộ. For dumplings, buns and other chapter 19 foods the binding item is the wrapper: non-originating flour, starch or rice may make up at most 20% of product weight, the general tolerance cannot lift that cap, and flour milled in Vietnam from imported wheat is non-originating. Vietnamese rice flour and cassava starch are originating. Imported textured soy is not limited in dumplings. In chay (vegetarian) food preparations under heading 2106 it may make up 10% of product weight or, on our reading of the text, 10% of the ex-works price; soy isolate and wheat gluten are not limited ⁴⁹ VN-directCao bộc lộ. CPTPP and RCEP ask only for a change of chapter for stuffed pasta, so for the UK, Japan and Canada the recipe does not bind ^51,52 VN-directCao. Meat is the other limit: Vietnam is not on the EU list of countries allowed to ship meat products, and meat-filled stuffed pasta is not yet duty-free (EUR 6.787 per 100 kg in 2026, against EUR 54.30). EU-bound Vietnamese wrapped foods are therefore seafood-filled or plant-filled, and a plant-protein filling is the practical EU substitute for pork ^53,39 VN-directTrung bình bộc lộ. The rules give domestic textured soy no export customer: a dumpling keeps its origin whatever soy it uses, and a chay preparation can meet the 2106 rule with isolate or gluten (our reading) VN-directTrung bình suy luận.

The EU deforestation regulation applies to soy from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators; our reading is that Vietnamese plant-based foods made from imported soy protein fall outside it unless exported as soybeans, soy flour, oil or cake, which should be confirmed ^54,55 generalThấp suy luận. Fish and crustaceans are not covered commodities, so the regulation does not reach Vietnamese shrimp and pangasius exports through their feed; it reaches them only through retailer and certification rules (our reading) ⁵⁴ generalTrung bình suy luận.

#17.4 The diaspora channel: real, small, chay

About 2.3 million people of Vietnamese origin lived in the US in 2023, and 326,630 Vietnam-born people in Australia in 2025 ^56,57 generalCao. On 24 September 2026 a US Asian online grocer listed Vietnam-made vegetarian net spring rolls, vegan lemongrass "chicken" jerky, vegetarian soups, bao buns, oyster sauce, noodles, fermented tofu and pho broth bases at USD 3.50 to 10 a pack; none was marketed on protein, and US diaspora firms also make chay bases locally ⁵⁸ VN-directCao bộc lộ. Protein-rich chay already travels through Asian grocers: dry soy pieces at 48 to 61 g of protein per 100 g, made from imported soy isolate, and analogues at 40 to 42 g are recorded under Vietnamese brands in France, Germany, Spain, Norway and Colombia ^12,59 VN-directThấp bộc lộ. Instant-noodle exports going to the US, Germany and Poland are consistent with a diaspora channel ¹ VN-directThấp suy luận. This channel could take protein-upgraded chay products at similar prices with frozen logistics in place; the gap is protein in frozen formats, not in dry pieces. It will not justify a novel-protein plant on its own VN-directTrung bình suy luận.

#17.5 The pull that matters most for the frontier: feed

The most frontier-relevant export demand is indirect, through what seafood buyers require of feed. Read in full, the standards are neutral for microbial protein; the revealed pull is domestic.

• Standards. The Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC) Feed Standard v1.2 has been mandatory since 2 February 2026. Certified mills must commit to deforestation- and conversion-free soy and palm (cutoff no later than 31 December 2020), buy eligible soy and palm at least equal to the volume in the ASC feed they sell (medium-risk ingredients may count as non-eligible until 2 February 2029), improve marine-ingredient sourcing over time, and report greenhouse gas emissions per tonne of feed, with no target ^60,61 generalCao. Feed stuffs need due diligence only on the ingredient maker, and any ingredient under 1% of a mill's yearly aquafeed intake counts as eligible automatically, without credit. BAP's feed mill standard credits ingredients from "algae and other aquatic microorganisms" towards its marine target; GLOBALG.A.P. says nothing about novel ingredients ^62,63 generalCao. On 25 September 2026 the ASC register listed 15 certified Vietnamese feed mills, the most of any country (15 of 114), and 6 more in initial audit ⁶⁴ VN-directCao bộc lộ. From 1 May 2028 all ASC farm audits require compound feed from an ASC-certified mill ^65,66 generalTrung bình. Vietnam is the largest producer of ASC-certified pangasius and third for ASC-certified shrimp ⁶⁷ VN-directTrung bình bộc lộ.
• Retailers. UK supermarkets including Tesco, Sainsbury's, Aldi and Lidl, and prawn importers, committed to deforestation- and conversion-free soy, including soy embedded in aquaculture feed, by the end of 2025 ⁶⁸ generalCao bộc lộ.
• Revealed buying. Vietnamese mills already buy microbial feed ingredients, though trade codes do not separate feed from food. Partner countries recorded 9,193 t of inactive yeast and other dead single-cell organisms (HS 2102.20) shipped to Vietnam in 2025, 2.4 times the 2019 tonnage, 95% of it at about USD 1.1 per kg and mainly from China and Brazil; Vietnam also exported 8,166 t at USD 1.39 per kg ^69,8 VN-directTrung bình bộc lộ. One export-facing pangasius group contracted at least 15,000 t of insect protein for feed over 2025 to 2027, which we cite as an incumbent benchmark ⁷⁰ VN-directTrung bình bộc lộ. No named Vietnamese mill has published a purchase of bacterial, fungal or other microbial protein, and Nutreco, the largest global aquafeed group, reached 0.6% novel ingredients by volume in 2025 against a target of 5 to 10% ^71,72 VN-adjacentCao bộc lộ.
• The limit. None of the buyer rules we found requires or rewards yeast, fungal or bacterial biomass, and we found no buyer that pays a documented premium for seafood raised on novel feed ^60,62,68 generalCao bộc lộ. And the buyer mix is shifting: in January to August 2026, seafood exports to China and Hong Kong rose 33% while those to the EU fell 1.6% ⁵ VN-directTrung bình bộc lộ, so the standards-driven pull is concentrated in a shrinking share of sales.

This changes how Part III reads the feed plays of the supply study (T2, T3; Plays). The export standards are a compliance hurdle that any feed ingredient must clear, not a pull for microbial protein; the deadline that will bite is the ASC farm transition of May 2028, after which certified mills will ask every ingredient maker for due-diligence data. T2's demand is domestic and priced low: a Vietnamese microbial ingredient must match imported bulk yeast at about USD 1.1 per kg, or show in head-to-head trials a gain worth about 1.2 to 1.8% of shrimp-feed cost (our calculation) VN-directThấp suy luận. Demand to frontier carries the kill test.

#17.6 Competitors and what would make Vietnam a preferred supplier

China dominates soy and pea protein exports and approved its first mycoprotein in 2025; Thailand has private-label plant-based exporters and a future-food roadmap but no EU agreement in force; Malaysia has a halal system and a lower US tariff ^{9,73,74,75,76,43} VN-adjacentTrung bình bộc lộ. In Japan, Fuji Oil supplies textured soy from its own plants in Japan and China ²⁵ generalCao bộc lộ. The largest foreign owner of Vietnamese wrapped-food export capacity, CJ, opened its Kizuna dumpling plant in Tay Ninh (former Long An) in 2022 to supply Japan, the EU and Australia, and will make its dumplings for Europe in Hungary from the second half of 2026 ^77,78 VN-directTrung bình được nêu. Our synthesis of what would make Vietnam a preferred supplier VN-directThấp suy luận:

• For EU and UK buyers, through importers and brand owners: zero tariffs (6 to 13 points over Thailand and China), origin-compliant wrappers, seafood-grade food safety with IFS Food or BRCGS certification, frozen logistics already used by seafood exporters, and a plant-protein version of a wrapped food these buyers already take from Vietnam. The first buyers are European importers of Asian frozen foods and brand owners already making wrapped foods in Vietnam, not the retailers themselves ^33,77,79 generalTrung bình suy luận.
• For Japanese buyers of wrapped foods: the 17.5-point CPTPP edge on dumplings, with no recipe condition beyond a change of chapter. Who in Japan buys Vietnamese dumplings, and whether they would take a plant-protein version, is not known.
• For Japanese and Korean ingredient buyers (weakly evidenced): despite a 6.6-point edge over China in Japan, textured protein from Vietnam sold under USD 0.35 million a year in each market in 2024 to 2025, the leading Japanese maker is expanding at home and a leading finished brand has exited ^11,25,24,36 VN-directCao bộc lộ. Keep this route only for a specified fungal or fermented protein with a named buyer; drop plain textured soy.
• For seafood buyers and their feed mills: a domestic microbial ingredient priced against commodity yeast, with the traceability data ASC mills will ask every supplier for from 2028.
• Against: the US tariff, no domestic protein-ingredient base, no novel-food approvals abroad, reliance on imported soy and gluten for every high-protein local product, European tier 1 supplier lists, and CJ's move of EU supply to Hungary.

#17.7 What this means for the frontier

For each reader.

• Startups: the best-evidenced first export product is a vegetable or plant-protein version of a dumpling, bun or rice-paper roll that a buyer already takes from Vietnam, sold through European importers of Asian foods or brand owners that already make wrapped foods in Vietnam, and named without restricted meat or dairy terms. Protein-upgraded chay for the diaspora is second; the gap there is protein in frozen formats. Functional plant or fungal protein for Japanese and Korean manufacturers is weakly evidenced and needs a named buyer and specification first. Plant-based seafood for export remains the weakest bet on current evidence.
• Investors: export demand justifies co-packing capacity with IFS Food or BRCGS certification more than a greenfield brand. Price the US tariff and CJ's near-shoring to Hungary explicitly, prefer buyers without EU plants, and budget for foreign approvals for any novel ingredient. Export origin rules give a domestic textured-soy plant (T1) no customer.
• Manufacturers: IFS Food or BRCGS is the entry ticket: Lidl requires IFS or BRC with annual audits, and 74.8% of Carrefour-brand plants were IFS or BRC certified in 2025. FSSC 22000 alone is not what these buyers name ^80,81 generalCao bộc lộ. For EU-bound wrapped foods, check the flour share of the wrapper and use Vietnamese rice flour or cassava starch where needed; ship to the UK, Japan and Canada under CPTPP. Cashew and seafood processors already own the buyers and cold chain an export plant-based or hybrid line needs. Feed mills supplying ASC farms will need certified status by May 2028 and should ask any microbial ingredient supplier for head-to-head trials against the yeast they already buy, priced per unit of performance.
• Research bodies: for feed, the export-relevant test is a head-to-head trial against commodity yeast plus the traceability and per-tonne carbon data ASC mills must report, not growth performance alone. For wrapped foods, cost a compliant rice-flour or cassava-starch wrapper against wheat.
• Policy makers: protect and use the EU, UK and Japanese preferences (6 to 13 points on plant-based lines and 17.5 points on dumplings in Japan). Publish an origin note for wrapped-food exporters on the EU 20% flour and starch cap and on the 10% tolerance by weight or value; imported soy protein is not the main constraint. Build a new-food route that mirrors EU and Singapore evidence requirements so that one dossier serves several markets, and support ASC-ready feed traceability before the 2028 farm deadline.
• International organisations and funders: replace a buyer survey with quote requests: one vegetable and one plant-protein wrapped SKU priced by three EU importers of Asian frozen foods and two brand owners already sourcing wrapped foods from Vietnam, with their certification and origin requirements. Retailer targets need no survey: they are published. Fund a first EU or Singapore dossier for a Vietnamese fungal or single-cell protein, and a feed carbon benchmark for Vietnamese shrimp and pangasius feed.

Related: D6. Export, Region, Feed and aquafeed market, Demand to frontier.