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Chương 16 · Phần III

16. Business buyers: the market for protein ingredients

The clearest revealed demand for new protein in Vietnam comes from firms: Vietnam imported about USD 285 million of protein ingredients in 2023, and domestic makers have no tariff shelter. A new ingredient must match Chinese landed cost on commodity grades, match hydrated soy as a meat extender, or be priced against egg and dairy proteins on function.

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Nội dung trang này bằng tiếng Anh. Đọc bản tóm tắt tiếng Việt

Trong trang này
  1. 16.1 What the trade data reveal
  2. 16.2 The price ladder
  3. 16.3 Who the buyers are
  4. 16.4 What buyers specify
  5. 16.5 How ingredients are bought
  6. 16.6 Novel protein: a clean negative, with two qualifications
  7. 16.7 The buyer map and first customers
  8. 16.8 What this means for the frontier

In one paragraph. The clearest revealed demand for new protein in Vietnam comes from firms. Vietnam imported about USD 285 million of protein ingredients in 2023, including USD 87 million of plant proteins, and the plant proteins that China reports shipping to Vietnam nearly tripled in tonnage from 2019 to 2025, to about 54,000 t, at about USD 0.9 to 1.3 per kg. Most of that jump is a cheap HS 3504 flow with no lunar timing that Vietnamese customs mostly did not record as 3504, which fits feed better than food; textured protein, by contrast, rises a third before the Vu Lan chay season. Chinese, ASEAN and Korean protein ingredients enter at 0% duty, so a domestic maker has no tariff shelter against Chinese product landing at about USD 1.3 to 1.4 per kg. Industrial đồ chay (traditional vegetarian food) makers are the most import-dependent and most switchable buyers; meat processors already use soy, wheat, milk and egg proteins as binders, and 31% of one large processor's meat formulations list soy protein, though extension that would pay at every pork price is not done at scale; Vinamilk buys pea protein for a soy-free high-protein nut milk that sells as a niche; infant and medical nutrition makers pay dairy-protein prices of USD 8 to 14 per kg. No Vietnamese protein buyer publishes an alternative-protein target, and we found no Vietnamese food company piloting mycoprotein, precision-fermented dairy protein or a novel-protein hybrid, though a Chinese yeast protein is now marketed to makers. The price ladder has two rungs, commodity plant proteins at about USD 2 per kg of protein and egg, dairy and premium plant proteins at USD 7 to 11, and a new ingredient must choose its rung and its job.

16.1 What the trade data reveal

No customs code maps cleanly to one protein ingredient: soy isolate appears under both HS 3504 and HS 2106.10, 2106.10 also carries supplement premixes, and 3504 carries peptones and collagen peptides. Vietnam's own reported quantities for these lines are flagged as estimated, so values are the better Vietnam-side measure, and partner-reported exports give tonnages to 2025 1,2 .

Ingredient (HS line)2019, USD million (Vietnam-reported)2023, USD million (Vietnam-reported)2025, USD million (partner-reported, FOB)2025 tonnesMain originSource
Other protein substances incl. soy isolate (3504)7.422.240.526,953China1,2
Protein concentrates, textured protein (2106.10)37.034.039.415,304USA by value, China by tonnage1,2
Wheat gluten (1109)15.231.128.821,991China1,2
Whey (0404.10)47.265.778.764,003USA, Turkiye, Spain1,2
Whey protein concentrate 80% or more (3502.20)10.710.816.21,634USA, Germany1,2
Casein and caseinates (3501)17.833.612.41,410New Zealand, Germany1,2
Egg white and egg powders (3502.11, 0408)9.715.916.92,536India1,2
Gelatin (3503)40.662.242.86,778China, France, Korea1,2
All lines (13 in 2019 and 2023; 12 in the 2025 partner data)190.1285.0286.1142,7581,2
USD 285 million
Kim ngạch nhập khẩu nguyên liệu đạm (2023)
2023Tính toán của nhóm nghiên cứu
Bối cảnh và nguồn

13 customs lines; plant proteins USD 87 million, dairy proteins USD 119 million, gelatin USD 62 million, egg proteins USD 16 million. Includes some feed-grade and supplement products. 1,2

Plant proteins are the fastest-growing tonnage. China-reported shipments of HS 3504, 2106.10 and 1109 to Vietnam rose from 18,375 t (2019) to 28,323 t (2023), 51,130 t (2024) and 53,976 t (2025), worth USD 59.7 million in 2025 2 . Most of the 2024 jump came from HS 3504 at about USD 1 per kg (see below). Wheat gluten from all origins doubled, from 11,327 t (2019) to 21,991 t (2025) 2 . China-origin textured protein (2106.10) grew 54% from 2019 to 2025; it did not triple. In 2025 Vietnam imported 12,832 t of 2106.10 from its three low-cost origins, China, India and Serbia, which is the pool a domestic soy extrusion line could serve 2,3 . 18,375 t to 53,976 t

Plant protein from China nearly tripled

China-reported exports to Vietnam, tonnes, by customs line, 2019 to 2025

Plant protein from China nearly tripledStacked bars: plant protein shipped from China to Vietnam rose from 18,375 t in 2019 to 53,976 t in 2025, with protein substances (HS 3504) jumping from 10,028 t in 2023 to 25,267 t in 2024.Protein substances (HS 3504)Textured protein and concentrates (HS 2106 10)Wheat gluten (HS 1109)010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000Tonnes2019, Protein substances (HS 3504): 2,140 t Total: 18,375 t2019, Textured protein and concentrates (HS 2106 10): 6,615 t Total: 18,375 t2019, Wheat gluten (HS 1109): 9,620 t Total: 18,375 t18,375 t20192020, Protein substances (HS 3504): 2,274 t Total: 20,778 t2020, Textured protein and concentrates (HS 2106 10): 9,741 t Total: 20,778 t2020, Wheat gluten (HS 1109): 8,763 t Total: 20,778 t20,77820202021, Protein substances (HS 3504): 2,516 t Total: 19,347 t2021, Textured protein and concentrates (HS 2106 10): 7,151 t Total: 19,347 t2021, Wheat gluten (HS 1109): 9,680 t Total: 19,347 t19,34720212022, Protein substances (HS 3504): 3,935 t Total: 23,203 t2022, Textured protein and concentrates (HS 2106 10): 5,639 t Total: 23,203 t2022, Wheat gluten (HS 1109): 13,629 t Total: 23,203 t23,20320222023, Protein substances (HS 3504): 10,028 t Total: 28,323 t2023, Textured protein and concentrates (HS 2106 10): 7,957 t Total: 28,323 t2023, Wheat gluten (HS 1109): 10,338 t Total: 28,323 t28,32320232024, Protein substances (HS 3504): 25,267 t Total: 51,130 t2024, Textured protein and concentrates (HS 2106 10): 10,029 t Total: 51,130 t2024, Wheat gluten (HS 1109): 15,834 t Total: 51,130 t51,13020242025, Protein substances (HS 3504): 24,363 t Total: 53,976 t2025, Textured protein and concentrates (HS 2106 10): 10,202 t Total: 53,976 t2025, Wheat gluten (HS 1109): 19,411 t Total: 53,976 t53,976 t2025Note: the 2024 jump in HS 3504 isprobably partly feed-grade.

Partner-reported (mirror) data from UN Comtrade.

Nguồn: 2

Xem số liệuẨn số liệu
Plant protein from China nearly tripled
YearProtein substances (HS 3504) (t)Textured protein and concentrates (HS 2106 10) (t)Wheat gluten (HS 1109) (t)Total (t)
20192,1406,6159,62018,375
20202,2749,7418,76320,778
20212,5167,1519,68019,347
20223,9355,63913,62923,203
202310,0287,95710,33828,323
202425,26710,02915,83451,130
202524,36310,20219,41153,976

Monthly data separate chay food from the new 3504 flow. China's monthly shipments of textured protein to Vietnam run 33% above an average month in the two months before the Vu Lan month, the peak of chay eating in the seventh lunar month, in five of six years (2019 to 2024), against 4% for the same code to the world and 2% to Thailand; that seasonal excess is about 5.5% of annual tonnage, some 550 t in 2024 (our calculation) 4,5 . The 2024 jump in HS 3504 has no such timing. It began in October 2023, was priced at USD 1.03 per kg against USD 2.44 for all China's 3504 exports, and was mostly not recorded as 3504 by Vietnamese customs (38% of China's reported value in October to December 2023, against 84 to 101% in 2019 to 2022) 4,5,2 . Price, timing and mirror records all support the reading that the jump is a feed, pet-food or technical protein, not a food isolate; the importers are still unidentified. If it is not food, the imported food pool is nearer 35 kt of product than the 40 kt the demand model uses (Demand sizing) (our calculation) . For an ingredient supplier the seasonal swing is modest: about a third more demand before Vu Lan and a trough in the Tết (lunar new year) month, not the two to three times swing of retail chay sales (trade_seasonal_summary.csv).

What the trade data cannot tell us. The split between food and feed, and between buyer segments, is not visible at six-digit level. Treat plant-protein imports as an upper bound for food demand until a declaration-level dataset (eight-digit code, description, importer) is analysed; this is one of the cheapest public goods on the demand side (Demand to frontier).

16.2 The price ladder

Ingredient, 2025USD per kgUSD per kg of protein (assumed grade)Source
Wheat gluten, China1.311.75 (75%)2
Textured protein and soy concentrate, China1.241.91 (65%)2
Soy protein isolate, China (three shipments)1.95 to 2.202.17 to 2.44 (90%)6
Pea protein, China (two shipments)2.00 to 3.002.50 to 3.75 (80%)7
Pea protein, United States or France (two shipments)6.75 to 8.508.44 to 10.63 (80%)7
Egg white powder, India5.907.38 (80%)2
Casein, New Zealand7.598.63 (88%)2
Whey protein concentrate 80, United States8.1310.16 (80%)2
Whey protein concentrate 80, Germany14.0517.56 (80%)2

Two rungs: commodity plant protein and everything else

Border price, USD per kg of protein, 2025 (assumed protein grades)

Two rungs: commodity plant protein and everything elseRange bars: Chinese gluten, textured protein and soy isolate cost USD 1.75 to 2.44 per kg of protein; Chinese pea 2.50 to 3.75; egg white, casein, Western pea and whey concentrate USD 7.38 to 17.56.Price rangeSingle priceGap between the rungs, about USD 2.4 to 7024681012141618USD per kg of proteinThe choice a new ingredient must make: the gap between about USD 2.4 and USD 7 per kg of proteinThe choice a new ingredient must makeWheat gluten, ChinaWheat gluten, China: USD 1.75 per kg of proteinUSD 1.75Textured protein and soy concentrate,ChinaTextured protein and soy concentrate, China: USD 1.91 per kg of proteinUSD 1.91Soy protein isolate, ChinaSoy protein isolate, China: USD 2.17 to 2.44 per kg of proteinUSD 2.17 to 2.44Pea protein, ChinaPea protein, China: USD 2.5 to 3.75 per kg of proteinUSD 2.5 to 3.75Egg white powder, IndiaEgg white powder, India: USD 7.38 per kg of proteinUSD 7.38Casein, New ZealandCasein, New Zealand: USD 8.63 per kg of proteinUSD 8.63Pea protein, US or FrancePea protein, US or France: USD 8.44 to 10.63 per kg of proteinUSD 8.44 to 10.63Whey protein concentrate 80, USWhey protein concentrate 80, US: USD 10.16 per kg of proteinUSD 10.16Whey protein concentrate 80, GermanyWhey protein concentrate 80, Germany: USD 17.56 per kg of proteinUSD 17.56

FOB unit values and sampled shipments; protein shares are typical-grade assumptions.

Nguồn: 2,6,7

Xem số liệuẨn số liệu
Two rungs: commodity plant protein and everything else
Ingredient and originLow (USD per kg of protein)High (USD per kg of protein)
Wheat gluten, China1.751.75
Textured protein and soy concentrate, China1.911.91
Soy protein isolate, China2.172.44
Pea protein, China2.53.75
Egg white powder, India7.387.38
Casein, New Zealand8.638.63
Pea protein, US or France8.4410.63
Whey protein concentrate 80, US10.1610.16
Whey protein concentrate 80, Germany17.5617.56

The ladder has two rungs . Commodity plant proteins cost about USD 1.7 to 2.4 per kg of protein at the border; egg, dairy and premium plant proteins cost USD 7 to 11 and more. The Chinese textured-protein price of USD 1.24 per kg is China's lowest to any of eight Asian and US partners (world average USD 1.95), and India (2,372 t at USD 0.98) and Serbia (259 t at USD 0.85) sold lower still, so a domestic line would meet the lowest-priced grade on the market 8,2 . USD 1.7 to 2.4

No tariff shelter. Chinese, ASEAN and Korean product pays no duty: HS 2106.10, 3504 and 1109 are at 0% under ACFTA, ATIGA, AKFTA and RCEP in 2025 to 2027 with a certificate of origin, and pea protein (3504) also enters at 0% from France under EVFTA and Canada under CPTPP 9,10 . The most-favoured-nation rates (5% for 2106.10, 3% for 3504, 10% for gluten) apply only to other origins, chiefly the United States 11,12 . With freight, insurance and port costs, Chinese textured protein lands at about USD 1.29 to 1.38 per kg, or about USD 2.0 to 2.1 per kg of protein (our calculation) 3,9 . Whether every importer claims the preference is not known; declaration data would show it. 0%

A new ingredient must decide which rung, and which job, it competes on (our calculation) 2,3 :

  • Commodity textured protein or isolate: match Chinese landed cost.
  • Meat extender (10 to 30% of the lean; hundreds of tonnes at a large processor): match hydrated soy, about USD 2.5 to 2.7 per kg of protein. For a fungal biomass at 45% protein that is about USD 0.7 to 1.2 per kg dry, unless it lets the processor replace more meat unnoticed than soy (Frontier demand).
  • Binder or functional protein (1 to 3% of a recipe; tens of tonnes a buyer): price against egg and dairy proteins. Fungal biomass at 45% protein could reach about USD 3.3 per kg against egg white and USD 3.9 to 4.6 per kg against casein or whey concentrate if it delivers binding, texture, flavour or solubility. Here it meets a Chinese yeast protein already marketed in Vietnam (16.5).

Ingredient distributors list gluten and soy protein as "contact for price", and retail prices of dried textured soy (VND 327,000 to 500,000 per kg) are about 10 to 16 times the Chinese border unit value of USD 1.24 per kg for HS 2106.10 (our calculation) 13,14,15,2 . The first public business-to-business prices we found are for finished kitchen products: on Kamereo, a platform supplying restaurants and hotels, domestic dry soy-gluten chay pieces sell at VND 135,000 per kg (VND 118,692 by the carton), about VND 20,000 to 25,000 per 100 g of protein on a borrowed protein range, and branded tofu at about VND 36,000 to 48,000 per 100 g of protein (our calculation) 16,15 .

16.3 Who the buyers are

Chay makers: the most switchable. Every protein-dense local chay product in our audit uses imported textured soy, soy concentrate, soy isolate or gluten (Alt protein today). The makers are owner-managed firms that can trial a new ingredient in weeks but each buys small volumes: An Nhien (imported Serbian soy concentrate on its label), Au Lac (an exporter), Thoai An (35% gluten in its vegetarian pork roll), LC Foods (textured soy granules of 4 to 7 mm), SG Food and the chay lines of Vissan, CJ Cau Tre and Cholimex 15,2 . A Vietnamese plant-based startup founder said in 2021 that more than 90% of its raw materials were imported because domestic ones had "two problems, quality and price" 17,18 . Chay makers also reach shelves through retailer private label: one certified co-packer, GN Foods, makes all five Co.op Select frozen chay dishes, using wheat protein, soybean or no protein ingredient 19,20 . And they sell dry pieces to households and kitchens: small online shops have sold about 40,700 kg of dry soy-and-gluten "ribs" on Lazada, and a domestic brand, Panko, sells similar pieces to kitchens through Kamereo; the makers behind the online shops are not named, so they are a buyer group still to trace 21,22,16 .

Meat processors: low-inclusion blends already. In an online label audit of 118 Vissan products, 19 of 61 unique meat formulations (31%) list soy protein and 22 (36%) list at least one added protein, mostly in value lines such as canned meats, pâté, giò lụa with head meat or skin and nutrition sausages 23 . The pattern is functional: added proteins bind water and fat and cut meat cost. Vissan made 18,547 t of processed food in 2025 and plans 20,350 t in 2026 24 . Illustratively, if 30 to 50% of that output carried soy protein at 1 to 3%, Vissan would buy about 55 to 280 t a year (our calculation) 24,23 : as a binder buyer, a large processor is a customer of tens to hundreds of tonnes, not thousands. Extension is a larger prize that Vissan has not taken. A 20% extension of the lean in the same lines would need 224 to 434 t of textured soy (or 249 to 482 t of fungal biomass) and save VND 58 to 112 billion a year at median hog prices, against a 2025 pre-tax profit of VND 105.1 billion; its labels suggest it does not extend at that scale (our calculation) 24,23,3 . Because soy extension pays at every pork price (Frontier demand), what limits it is product identity, texture and trust, not cost. Vissan's 2026 shareholder meeting set no chay target, and its new investment is a 32,000-head pig farm 25,26 . Masan MEATLife calls itself a "consumer protein platform" and is moving into marinated and processed branded meat 27,28 . C.P. Vietnam, whose revenue was THB 101.3 billion in 2025 (food THB 8.2 billion), runs a USD 250 million processed-chicken complex and owns a caterer, Dzine Food Solutions; its parent's Meat Zero plant-based range, imported from Thailand, was listed on a Vietnamese HoReCa (hotel, restaurant and catering) platform and is no longer orderable 29,30,31 .

Dairy and plant milks: the clearest pull for a non-soy isolate. Vinamilk's high-protein nut milk delivers 9 g of protein per 180 ml "mainly from pea" and is sold as soy-free, lactose-free, non-GMO, gluten-free and glyphosate-free, aimed at "people wary of soy"; its page sets 5 g per 100 ml as the threshold for a high-protein claim 32 . Vinamilk names its high-protein and plant milks among the drivers of H1 2026 revenue of VND 35,034 billion 33 . This is the only large Vietnamese buyer we found using a non-soy protein isolate. Its pull is product-led, not commitment-led: FAIRR records Vinamilk's plant-based products at 1.30% of its range with no timebound diversification target, and Vinamilk promotes its high-protein dairy milk on milk protein being "more easily absorbed" than plant protein 34,35 . The high-protein nut milk sells as a niche: about 70,300 L on Vinamilk's Lazada store, about one-eighth of its standard nut milk by litres (our calculation on cumulative counters) 21,22 . The wider plant-milk business is growing: Vinasoy sold 264 million litres in 2025 with its Veyo nut milks up 50%, and Vietnam imported USD 3.9 billion of tree nuts in 2025, up 40%, partly for plant milk 36,37 . Two fiscal rules shape the category. Regional plant-milk imports are duty-free (2202.99 at 0% under ACFTA, ATIGA and AKFTA; the 30% most-favoured-nation rate applies only to non-FTA origins), so local makers' advantage is distribution, not tariffs 9 . From 1 January 2027 drinks above 5 g of total sugar per 100 ml pay an 8% excise (10% from 2028); dairy is exempt, whether soy and nut milks count is unresolved, and the reference high-protein nut milk lists 6.5% added sugar, so an isolate buyer will want formulations at or below 5 g (Consumers) 38,39 .

Infant and medical nutrition: demanding and slow. These makers import whey protein concentrate (1,634 t in 2025), demineralised whey, casein and milk protein concentrates, market "non-GMO" and increasingly run clinical studies (Nutifood with Military Hospital 175, June 2026) 2,40 . They are the buyers for precision-fermented dairy proteins, but qualification is slow and regulatory status is the gate; low-dose ingredients such as lactoferrin fall below the 5% trigger of the mandatory GMO label (Frontier demand).

Instant noodles: volume, not yet protein. Vietnam ate 8,231 million servings in 2025, about 81 per person, fourth in the world 41 . Acecook uses soy protein only in seasoning and garnish sachets, but already buys pea and mung bean starch, the co-products of pulse protein fractionation, and calcium-fortifies its best-selling brand; we found no protein-fortified noodle 42 . Its July 2025 strategy moves into ready-to-eat foods and snacks with real meat, vegetables and micronutrients, still with no protein claim 43 . A pulse-protein plant would have starch buyers waiting.

Seasoning, bakery and sports nutrition. Seasoning makers buy protein as flavour (meat and bone extracts, yeast extract, hydrolysed proteins) 44 ; bakery protein demand is egg and dairy 2 ; sports nutrition imports finished products, not ingredients 45 .

16.4 What buyers specify

  • Meat pastes and sausages: gel strength, water and fat binding, emulsion stability through retort sterilisation, bland flavour and light colour, used with starch, fibre, phosphates and carrageenan 23 . Two isolates at the same price can perform differently in the same paste 46 . For extension rather than binding, fine emulsions take a fine isolate, concentrate or paste at 10 to 20% of the lean, not granules, and coarse mince up to about 30% 47,48 . We found no published Vietnamese study of soy protein in giò lụa; the nearest are a 2018 study of emulsion sausages, which found soy protein in all seven commercial sausages tested, and a 2021 study showing that graininess and uneven texture cut liking of chả lụa 49,50 . No national standard sets a minimum meat content, and a meat named in the product name must be quantified, so an extender keeps the product name; buyers whose premium lines sell on "no filler" will not want one 51,52,53 .
  • Plant milks and nutrition drinks: solubility, low viscosity, stability through UHT treatment, neutral flavour, a complete amino-acid profile, and documents for soy-free, non-GMO and glyphosate-free claims 32 . Mung bean isolates of 85 to 88% protein have been made from Thai-grown beans (transfer assumption: similar beans and processes) 54 .
  • Chay analogues: granule size, slices, rehydration ratio, chewiness, non-GMO claims and halal certificates for exporters, in 20 to 25 kg bags 15 .
  • All buyers: certificates of analysis and traceable origin. Food-safety crises in 2025 and 2026, including about 130 t of pork from pigs with African swine fever at a canned-meat maker whose H1 2026 revenue then fell 32%, and enforcement against a nut-milk maker whose product failed its own declared specification, have raised the documentation bar for any new supplier 55,56,57 . Vinamilk's 2025 annual report says traceability and label compliance are becoming "mandatory rather than a competitive advantage" and names price competitiveness, quality and geographic diversification as supplier criteria 58 .

Minimum order quantities, shelf-life requirements and qualification times were not published by any buyer we could read. Qualification time is the most important unknown for a founder (R1. Open questions).

16.5 How ingredients are bought

Large processors import major ingredients directly and buy minor ones through distributors, and in-person contact is expected 57 . Plant proteins sit between: large buyers import containers (16 t pea protein shipments in 2025), while small firms buy 20 to 25 kg bags from distributors such as VMC Group, TDGIMEX, Brenntag and Barentz 7,59,13,14 . Food Ingredients Vietnam (May 2026) listed about 250 exhibitors, mostly Chinese, including pea protein and US dairy protein suppliers but no major soy isolate brand 60 . Distributors now also sell fermentation-derived protein: ACC (Asia Ingredients Group) has marketed Angel Yeast's yeast protein (55 to 90% protein and a PDCAAS of 1.0, company claims) to Vietnamese bakery, beverage, dairy, plant-based and meat-alternative makers since May 2025, with sampling and application support; no price or named user is public 61,62,63 . Kitchens buy finished plant protein through HoReCa distributors: Kamereo lists 37 tofu SKUs and dry soy-gluten pieces, and MM Mega Market about 39 chay prepared foods and 31 tofu items, but neither lists dry textured soy, gluten or a Western analogue 16,64,65 .

16.6 Novel protein: a clean negative, with two qualifications

We found no Vietnamese food company piloting mycoprotein, precision-fermented dairy protein or a hybrid meat product using a novel protein, and no Vietnamese protein buyer publishes an alternative-protein or protein-diversification target. The Asia Protein Buyers 100 (February 2026) places Vinamilk in Tier 3, Masan in Tier 4, Vinh Hoan in Tier 5 and Minh Phu and Nam Viet in Tier 6, and finds only 2 of 100 Asian buyers publishing alternative-protein sourcing targets 66,34 . The 2025 annual reports and 2026 shareholder meetings of Vinamilk, QNS, Masan, Vissan, Acecook and C.P.'s parent state no such target for Vietnam, and incumbents' protein diversification is into animal protein: Vinabeef chilled beef, a Vissan pig farm and Masan processed meat 58,28,30,24 . CP Foods sells Meat Zero with no quantified target.

Two qualifications. A small Vietnamese startup, Emmay, reports making 1.5 to 2 t a month of mushroom and mycelium foods, including a shiitake mycoprotein made by fermentation, and exporting about 10% of revenue (company report) 67 . And a Chinese yeast protein has been marketed to Vietnamese makers through ACC since May 2025, with no named user (16.5). The corporate moves on record remain the seafood exporters' cultivated-meat stakes, whose partners have since left human food (Frontier demand). The one novel-ish ingredient with proven corporate uptake is a non-soy plant isolate in dairy (pea at Vinamilk); the one hybrid category with proven uptake is conventional (soy, wheat and milk proteins in meat pastes).

16.7 The buyer map and first customers

RankSegmentCurrent protein-ingredient spend (1 to 5)Likelihood of switching to a domestic or novel ingredient (1 to 5)Price and specification to meetEase of first trial (1 to 5)
1Industrial chay makers and frozen chay co-packers35At or below Chinese textured protein landed at 0% duty (about USD 1.29 to 1.38 per kg in 2025); granules and slices; non-GMO; halal5
2Plant milks and adult nutrition drinks34USD 2 to 8.5 per kg (the pea band, duty-free from China, France and Canada); soluble, UHT-stable, neutral, soy-free, non-GMO; drinks at or below 5 g sugar per 100 ml3
3Meat processors33Binder: soy isolate parity near USD 2.0 to 2.2 per kg; extender: hydrated soy parity (about USD 2.5 to 2.7 per kg of protein); gel, emulsion, retort stability3
4Seasoning and flavour33Priced as flavour; umami; clean label3
5Instant noodles22Textured garnish at Chinese parity; pulse starch co-products2
6Infant formula and medical nutrition42Whey concentrate parity USD 8 to 14 per kg; infant-grade dossiers; regulatory clarity1
7Bakery and snacks21Egg white parity near USD 5.9 per kg with whipping and binding; yeast protein already offered2
8Sports nutrition11Imports finished goods1

Scores are our judgement from the evidence above 2,23,32,15 .

Plausible first customers, by product :

  • Domestic textured soy or soy-gluten protein: An Nhien, Au Lac, Thoai An, LC Foods and SG Food first (fast trials, import substitution); then the frozen chay lines of Cholimex, CJ Cau Tre and Vissan, retailer co-packers (GN Foods for Co.op Select), makers of dry chay pieces sold to kitchens and online, and contract caterers through HoReCa distributors; Acecook for noodle garnish. This matches play T1, which Plays recasts as an import-substitution plant best owned by a chay maker, co-packer or distributor and financed with debt, not venture equity; the soy pool a line can serve is about 12,800 t of textured-type imports (Demand to frontier).
  • Rice or mung bean protein isolate: Vinamilk (replacing or complementing imported pea), Vinasoy (nut milks), Nutifood (medical and diabetic nutrition), with starch co-products sold to noodle makers. It would compete with duty-free pea protein and with Angel Yeast's yeast protein, which ACC markets for plant-based dairy. This matches play T10. Vietnam imports most of its mung beans, so a "domestic" isolate may still rest on imported beans.
  • Fungal biomass, split by job: as a binder (1 to 3% of a recipe, tens of tonnes a buyer), priced against egg and milk protein at about USD 3.3 to 4.6 per kg dry, for value lines at Vissan and Masan MEATLife, bakery egg replacement, and Ajinomoto Vietnam and Cholimex as a flavour-active ingredient for chay seasonings and dumplings; as an extender (10 to 30% of the lean, hundreds of tonnes a buyer), at hydrated-soy parity of about USD 0.7 to 1.2 per kg dry unless it allows more replacement than soy. This matches play T9.
  • Precision-fermented dairy protein: Nutifood and Vinamilk specialty nutrition, for bioactive proteins rather than bulk whey, after the Food Safety Law (passage considered in May 2027) and the GMO detectability question are settled; low-dose uses already fall outside the mandatory label. This matches play T7.

16.8 What this means for the frontier

For each reader.

  • Startups: if you build a textured protein line, you are building an import-substitution plant, not a venture: aim to be owned by or contracted to a chay maker, co-packer or distributor, and test two things first, the delivered price of food-grade defatted soy flour (above about USD 700 to 940 per t the margin fails for a 1 t/h line at 70% use) and whether three buyers will order 2,000 t a year (Demand to frontier). For an isolate, design for the dairy buyer, keep drinks at or below 5 g of sugar per 100 ml and plan to sell the starch co-product. Pitch fungal biomass by job: against egg and dairy proteins as a binder, against hydrated soy as an extender. Expect trials to be won with certificates, not claims.
  • Investors: plant-protein imports are worth about USD 87 to 109 million a year at the border (2023 to 2025), an unknown share of it feed, and prices are capped by Chinese supply that pays no duty; returns depend on volume, co-products and distribution, not premiums. A Chinese dry textured-protein line lists at USD 11,000 to 100,000 and installs for about USD 0.3 to 1.4 million, so the funding need is mostly working capital, suited to debt and trade finance. Dairy and nutrition buyers pay 3 to 5 times more per kilogram of protein but qualify suppliers slowly.
  • Manufacturers: joint development with a local protein maker can secure soy-free and traceable supply, but not a tariff advantage, since pea protein from China, France and Canada is duty-free too. A co-packer can take a protein upgrade to a retailer's private label without a consumer brand. Meat processors already own the cheapest extender, soy: test any new one against your own soy recipe.
  • Research bodies: publish functional tests of local proteins in Vietnamese formats (industrial xúc xích, giò lụa, UHT nut milk, noodle garnish) at equal cost to the ingredient they would replace, and offer pilot samples in 20 to 25 kg lots, which is how small buyers test.
  • Policy makers: national eight-digit subheadings for soy isolate, pea protein and textured protein would make demand visible; a clear answer on whether an identical recombinant protein is a detectable GMO product matters because leading buyers market "non-GMO"; a written ruling before 1 January 2027 on whether soy, nut and cereal milks above 5 g of sugar per 100 ml are nước giải khát (soft drinks) would settle plant-milk formulation.
  • International organisations and funders: fund a declaration-level customs analysis, a price sheet of delivered quotes for food-grade defatted soy flour and Chinese textured soy, and a standing panel of 10 to 15 research and development buyers; together they would answer the food-and-feed split, the T1 margin and the qualification-time question for every founder.

Related: D5. Business buyers, Plays, S1. Directory, Demand to frontier.

Nguồn được trích dẫn trong trang

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