Bản thảo để góp ý, phiên bản 0.6. Không dùng để trích dẫn.Báo cáo này là bản dự thảo và có thể thay đổi.
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Phụ lục M5

M5. Changelog and corrections

Every version of this draft report and what it changed, where each page moved when the report was restructured in v0.6, and every correction to earlier drafts, with what it was, what the report now uses, the source and where the correction appears.

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Nội dung trang này bằng tiếng Anh. Đọc bản tóm tắt tiếng Việt

Trong trang này
  1. M5.1 Versions
  2. M5.2 What changed in v0.6
  3. M5.3 Where pages moved in v0.6
  4. M5.4 What each earlier version added
  5. M5.5 Corrections to the internal drafts: markets and prices
  6. M5.6 Corrections to the internal drafts: companies and capital
  7. M5.7 Corrections to the internal drafts: rules
  8. M5.8 Corrections to the internal drafts: science and research
  9. M5.9 Corrections made in v0.2
  10. M5.10 Changes made in v0.3
  11. M5.11 Changes made in v0.4
  12. M5.12 Changes made in v0.5

This report is a draft. Version 1.0 will be the public launch; every version before it is a draft for review, numbered 0.x. This appendix is the record of what changed between drafts, so the chapters themselves can read cleanly. Readers who used an earlier draft should update to the values below.

M5.1 Versions

VersionDateWhat it addedEarlier label
0.1September 2026The supply study: context, supply, the plays, policy options, the 2035 outlook and the open questions, with the appendices on feedstocks, retail audit, companies, facilities, regulation, feed market, costs, science, research, labs, capital, the region, the administrative map and the registersCirculated as "edition 1.0"
0.2September 2026Futures to 2050: drivers, frontier technology, the protein and feed balance model, four 2050 worlds, a labelled vision and robust moves; the foresight tag"Edition 1.1"
0.3September 2026The demand side: diet and prices, chay, consumers, frontier demand, channels, business buyers, export, the demand model, product targets and demand moves; the demand evidence tag"Edition 1.2"
0.4September 2026A check of the demand side against 80 named actors and sixteen follow-up research lines, with corrections across the report"Edition 1.3"
0.5September 2026A prologue for newcomers in English and Vietnamese; a complete bibliography"Edition 1.4"
0.6September 2026A reader-first restructure, 0.x version numbers, this changelog, a two-minute summary, an FAQ, draft labels and consistency fixes (M5.2)This draft

Files, zips and project notes made before v0.6 use the earlier labels.

M5.2 What changed in v0.6

No finding changed. The changes are to structure and readability:

  • Reader-first structure. The 30 chapters are regrouped into five parts in the order a reader needs them: I Context, II Supply, III Demand, IV Futures and V What to do. Chapters are renumbered 1 to 30. Appendices are re-coded by theme: M (method and record), S (context and supply evidence), D (demand evidence), F (futures evidence) and R (registers). Every link, section number and reference was rewritten; M5.3 maps old to new.
  • Versions. The earlier "editions 1.0 to 1.4" are now versions 0.1 to 0.5 (M5.1).
  • Markers moved here. Notes in the text such as "new in edition 1.2" or "corrected in edition 1.3" were removed so pages read cleanly; what each version added is in M5.4, and each correction is in M5.5 to M5.12. Data files keep a version column (for example version in key-numbers.json).
  • New pages. A two-minute summary (In two minutes) and an FAQ (FAQ).
  • Draft labels. The cover, the summaries and every page footer say "Draft for review, not for citation".
  • Reading aids. How to read now has a map of the parts and a table of codes and scenario names; the executive summaries and at a glance follow the new part order; the briefs end with a "Read next" list.
  • Consistency fixes from a reader review, listed in M5.2.1.

M5.2.1 Consistency fixes in v0.6

These fix how things read or add up. None changes a finding.

  • Key numbers. A duplicate key-number id was renamed (the 2023 food protein ingredient imports are now kn-food-protein-ingredient-imports-2023). The two retail protein price tiles are kept as separate observations (23 and 24 September 2026) and Chapter 9 now points to the wider 24 September check. The 2030 feed-target tile now says which feed the target covers. The retail price tile was removed from the startups brief, where it did not fit the text.
  • Counts. Stale counts of open questions and disagreements in Chapter 30, Appendix R1 and Appendix S9 were brought up to date, as were the source, table and page counts on the cover and in the summaries. The plays are "ten" everywhere; "sixteen" refers only to the research lines of the actor check.
  • Law timing. Every page now states the Food Safety Law window the same way: first comments in October 2026, a vote considered in May 2027, so a new-food clause needs to be in the draft revised between the two sessions, in practice by early 2027.
  • Codes. Play, policy-option, demand-move and scenario codes are spelled out on first use in the summaries and briefs, and decoded in a table in How to read.
  • Summaries and reading times. 29 page summaries were shortened to one or two sentences, and every reading time was recomputed from the word count.
  • Briefs. The six briefs now follow the new part order and end with a "Read next" list.
  • Terms and spelling. TVP (textured vegetable protein) is defined where first used; spelling is British English throughout (for example yoghurt, sulphate); 13 abbreviations used in the report (HS code, MFN, ACFTA, RCEP, ATIGA, EVFTA and UKVFTA, CPTPP, FOB, CIF, IFS and BRCGS, ASC, TCVN, SFA) were added to R3. Glossary, which now has 236 terms.
  • Clean text. Raw tag tokens that had leaked into running text were removed; the headings of S13. Science are numbered; related-page links were added where pages cite each other but did not link.
  • Section codes. Old appendix letters used as section codes inside three appendices now use the new codes: Facilities and capacity (was F1 to F9), Feed and aquafeed market (was H1 to H13) and Costs and benchmarks (was I1 to I17). The futures question tree in M2. Futures method is Q1 to Q10, and the 2035 scenarios are Scenarios 1 to 3. The feedstock sheet codes C1 to C34 in Feedstock data sheets are kept as identifiers.
  • Checks of the restructure. An independent review of the renumbering restored one legal citation it had caught (Appendix I of Decree 111/2021), corrected two part ranges in the Vietnamese executive summary, one section reference in Chapter 24 and four section ranges in actor_questions.csv, and put the reading paths in site-manifest.json into part order. Tariff chapter numbers (HS chapters) were checked and are unchanged. The balance and demand models reproduce their published outputs byte for byte.

M5.3 Where pages moved in v0.6

Page ids changed with the numbers. Old ids, which appear in files made before v0.6 and in the working papers, map as follows.

Before v0.6From v0.6Page
Chapter 1Chapter 1Why Vietnam
Chapter 2Chapter 4Asset map
Chapter 3Chapter 5Industrial base
Chapter 4Chapter 2Alt protein today
Chapter 5Chapter 7Rules
Chapter 6Chapter 6Knowledge and talent
Chapter 7Chapter 8Capital
Chapter 8Chapter 3Region
Chapter 9Chapter 9Economics
Chapter 10Chapter 10Technology fit
Chapter 11Chapter 26Plays
Chapter 12Chapter 27Policy options
Chapter 13Chapter 19Outlook
Chapter 14Chapter 30Unknowns
Chapter 15Chapter 20Drivers to 2050
Chapter 16Chapter 21Frontier technology
Chapter 17Chapter 22Protein balance 2050
Chapter 18Chapter 23Scenarios 2050
Chapter 19Chapter 24Vision 2050
Chapter 20Chapter 28Robust moves
Chapter 21Chapter 11Protein diet
Chapter 22Chapter 12Chay baseline
Chapter 23Chapter 13Consumers
Chapter 24Chapter 14Frontier demand
Chapter 25Chapter 15Channels
Chapter 26Chapter 16Business buyers
Chapter 27Chapter 17Export demand
Chapter 28Chapter 18Demand sizing
Chapter 29Chapter 25Demand to frontier
Chapter 30Chapter 29Actor check
Before v0.6From v0.6Page
Appendix AAppendix M1M1. Method
Appendix BAppendix M5M5. Changelog
Appendix CAppendix S4Feedstock data sheets
Appendix DAppendix S2S2. Retail formulation audit
Appendix EAppendix S1S1. Directory
Appendix FAppendix S5Facilities and capacity
Appendix GAppendix S9S9. Regulation
Appendix HAppendix S6Feed and aquafeed market
Appendix IAppendix S12Costs and benchmarks
Appendix JAppendix S13S13. Science
Appendix KAppendix S7S7. Research landscape
Appendix LAppendix S8S8. Labs and talent
Appendix MAppendix S11S11. Capital
Appendix NAppendix S3S3. Regional
Appendix OAppendix F1F1. Outlook data
Appendix PAppendix S10S10. Admin map
Appendix QAppendix R1R1. Open questions
Appendix RAppendix R2R2. Disagreements
Appendix SAppendix R3R3. Glossary
Appendix TAppendix R4R4. Sources
Appendix UAppendix M2M2. Futures method
Appendix VAppendix F3F3. Frontier technology
Appendix WAppendix F4F4. Balance model
Appendix XAppendix F2F2. Drivers and signals
Appendix YAppendix F5F5. Targets and hubs
Appendix ZAppendix F6F6. Aquafeed and feedstocks 2050
Appendix AAAppendix M3M3. Demand method
Appendix ABAppendix D2D2. Consumer evidence
Appendix ACAppendix D1D1. Diet and prices
Appendix ADAppendix D4D4. Channels
Appendix AEAppendix D5D5. Business buyers
Appendix AFAppendix D6D6. Export
Appendix AGAppendix D7D7. Global benchmarks
Appendix AHAppendix D8D8. Demand model
Appendix AIAppendix D3D3. Retail demand signals
Appendix AJAppendix M4M4. Actor check and waves

The working papers in working-papers/ are kept as written, so they use the earlier chapter numbers and appendix letters.

M5.4 What each earlier version added

v0.2 (futures). New chapters on drivers, frontier technology, the protein and feed balance, the 2050 worlds, the vision and robust moves (now chapters 20 to 24 and 28), and Appendices M2 and F2 to F6. Futures sections were added to the executive summaries, at a glance, the cover, how to read and the six briefs. New tag: the foresight tag; new callouts: "Speculative" and "Vision, not forecast". Smaller edits corrected and cross-linked the knowledge, outlook and unknowns chapters and the directory, feed-market, research, regulation and science appendices; the registers gained the new rows. Corrections are in M5.9.

v0.3 (demand). New chapters on diet and prices, chay, consumers, frontier demand, channels, business buyers, export, demand sizing and product targets (now chapters 11 to 18 and 25), and Appendices M3 and D1 to D8. New tag: the demand evidence tag; new script: tools/demand_model.py. plays.csv was unchanged; the demand view of market pull is in play_demand_check.csv. An independent review corrected the draft before release (M5.10).

v0.4 (actor check). The demand side was checked against 80 named actors and expanded in three waves of research lines (now chapter 29 and Appendix M4). The check changed the school, textured-protein, blends, label, sugar-tax, export and funder conclusions and edited chapters 7 to 9, 11 to 19 and 25 to 27, several appendices, the summaries and the briefs. The demand model's numbers were frozen, with caveats stated beside them, and the plays' scores were unchanged. 50 data files were added. An independent review corrected the draft before release (M5.11).

v0.5 (prologue). A prologue for newcomers in English and Vietnamese, two charts, four key numbers, 81 sources and 11 glossary terms; the bibliography was completed to list every source (M5.12).

Sections M5.5 to M5.8 list corrections to the internal scoping drafts that preceded v0.1. Their claims were treated as leads and re-checked (M1. Method); the corrections supersede the earlier figures everywhere. Sections M5.9 to M5.12 list the corrections and changes made in each later version.

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M5.5 Corrections to the internal drafts: markets and prices

TopicEarlier draftsThis reportSourcesWhere
Fishmeal benchmarkUSD 1,837 per t (March 2026), about USD 2,830 per t of protein2025 average USD 1,706 per t (about USD 2,625 per t of protein); August 2026 USD 2,500 per t (about USD 3,846)1,2Economics, Feed and aquafeed market, Costs and benchmarks
Displaceable fishmeal pool350 to 450 kt a yearCentral 120 to 245 kt; sourced bounds 79 to 290 kt; realistic capture by novel proteins in total 25 to 90 kt3,4,5Plays, Feed and aquafeed market
Soybean balance"41,000 t produced against 3.2 Mt imported" (2026 forecasts mixed with 2025 actuals)2025: 42,000 to 43,000 t produced, 2.61 Mt imported (98.4%); 5.70 Mt soybean meal imported; 7.2 Mt fed6Why Vietnam, Feed and aquafeed market
Aquafeed volume3.4 to 4.0 Mt (capacity times utilisation)Industry 3.9 to 4.8 Mt against USDA 6.5 Mt (2025); unresolved, not averaged7,8Why Vietnam, Feed and aquafeed market
Bran and broken rice in feed730 kt2.8 Mt of domestic supply (2025)9Feedstock data sheets
Cassava pulp1.7 to 2.1 Mt wet a yearAbout 6 Mt wet (about 1.3 Mt dry matter), derived; earlier figure fits pressed pulp only10,11,12,13Asset map, Feedstock data sheets
Region I minimum wageVND 4,960,000 a monthVND 5,310,000 a month from 1 January 202614Economics, Costs and benchmarks
Tropical cooling"May offset" Vietnam's power advantageReal but modest: about USD 70 to 180 per t of biomass, 2 to 4% of feed-protein cost; avoidable with thermotolerant strains15,16Economics, S13. Science
Fuel-ethanol capacityAbout 600,000 m³ a year in six plantsNot supported by 2025 or 2026 sourcesFacilities and capacityFacilities and capacity

M5.6 Corrections to the internal drafts: companies and capital

TopicEarlier draftsThis reportSourcesWhere
Entobel financingAbout USD 36 million; IFC about USD 10 millionUSD 32.5 million: Mekong Capital 25, Dragon Capital 5, IFC 2.5 (upstream collaboration agreement)17,18,19Capital, S11. Capital
Vedan glutamic acid capacity36,000 t a yearLast published nameplate 180,000 t a year (2004); neither confirmed as current20Industrial base, Facilities and capacity
De Heus and CJ Feed & Care17 CJ plants in Vietnam17 mills across five countries (deal closed 3 March 2026); De Heus lists 21 plants in Vietnam21,22Industrial base, Facilities and capacity
De Heus Vinh Long mill84,000 t a year168,000 t a year design capacity (company, 2026); 84,000 is trade press23,24Facilities and capacity
Skretting and EntobelNot recordedStrategic partnership 26 November 2025; insect-meal shrimp feed in commercial production (company claim)25Feed and aquafeed market
Ho Chi Minh City Biotechnology CenterOffers pilot fermentationService pages list agricultural and aquaculture services, not contract fermentation26S8. Labs and talent
LC Foods, "Unconventional"Not foundIdentified through the retail audit27S1. Directory
"Xuan Hong"An industrial chay makerTwo different firms: a cassava-starch processor in Tay Ninh, and a dried-slice brand whose owner is not identified28,27S1. Directory

M5.7 Corrections to the internal drafts: rules

TopicEarlier draftsThis reportSourcesWhere
Legal basis of feed trialsArticle 11 of Decree 13/2020, 12 to 18 monthsLaw on Animal Husbandry Art 37 and Circular 94/2025; about 40 working days of agency time plus the trial; 6 to 18 months total is our estimate29,30Rules, S9. Regulation
Aquafeed permitted listContent unknownCircular 16/2026 Appendix II has no raw-material section31Rules, S9. Regulation
Unlisted feed materialsNo penalty notedDecree 211/2026: VND 10 to 20 million per material plus 1 to 3 months' suspension (from 5 August 2026)32Rules
Precision fermentationNot treated as GMO productsProbably "products of a GMO" under Decree 43/202633,34Rules, S9. Regulation
Product-declaration design in the draft lawThree risk tiersTwo groups, per July 2026 Government press35S9. Regulation
Allergen labellingCovered by guidanceNo allergen list found in Decree 111/2021 or Circular 05/2019S9. RegulationS9. Regulation
SandboxNo food or feed sandbox existsStill no national procedure; the Hanoi sandbox is the most concrete option36,37Rules, S9. Regulation
E10 dateMandatory from 1 January 2026Mandatory nationwide from 1 June 2026 (1 January 2026 is the circular's effective date)38Outlook, F1. Outlook data
Long AnMerged into Ho Chi Minh CityMerged into Tay Ninh; Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau into Ho Chi Minh City; Binh Phuoc into Dong Nai39S10. Admin map

M5.8 Corrections to the internal drafts: science and research

TopicEarlier draftsThis reportSourcesWhere
A. oryzae biomass on vinasse118.5 g/LNot a broth concentration; about 5.9 g/L in the flask on the most plausible reading40Technology fit, S13. Science
A. oryzae metabolitesAflatoxin, cyclopiazonic acid, kojic acid and 3-nitropropionic acid togetherNo aflatoxin; cyclopiazonic acid and 3-nitropropionic acid are the real concerns; kojic acid is not a mycotoxin41S13. Science
Precision-fermentation titer">50 g/L" as a modelled thresholdAn expert assertion; best leghemoglobin titers 3.5, 7.27 and 10.1 g/L42,43,44,45Technology fit, S13. Science
DuckweedEFSA opinion supportive; "not novel" in the EU; PDCAAS 0.89EFSA could not establish safety of whole Wolffia powder (manganese, 2021) but found a Lemna protein concentrate safe (2023); "not novel" unverified; 0.89 unsupported46,47,48Technology fit, S13. Science
Fish and shrimp cell linesPHT, "PHG" and PmLyO-Sf9 as ICAR-NBFGR food-relevant linesPHT is real but a serum-dependent virology line; a gill line exists but "PHG" is unconfirmed; PmLyO-Sf9 is a shrimp and insect hybrid from CUSAT49,50,51Technology fit, S13. Science
Vietnamese plant-based meat research2 papers; none on extrusionAbout 6 on-topic papers; at most one extrusion study52Knowledge and talent, S7. Research landscape
Vietnamese safety and quality studiesNone on RNA reduction, mycotoxins or digestibilitySome exist (spent-yeast RNA reduction, aflatoxin testing in fermented soy, in vitro digestibility); none on a novel microbial biomass; no DIAAS or PDCAAS study53,54,55Knowledge and talent

M5.9 Corrections made in v0.2

Version 0.2 (September 2026) adds Part IV and corrects these v0.1 statements.

TopicVersion 0.1Version 0.2SourcesWhere
Scope of the 2030 industrial feed target (30 to 32 Mt)Unclear whether aquafeed is included (OQ-127)Livestock feed only, per the feed scheme (Decision 1625/QD-TTg, December 2023), Medium confidence; the 2025 target of 24 to 25 Mt was probably missed; the balance model gives 26.4 Mt of livestock feed in 203056Outlook, Protein balance 2050, Feed and aquafeed market
Feed schemeDecision 1625/QD-TTg not citedAdded to the legal register and instruments.csv56S9. Regulation
Agri-biotech schemeDecision 429/QD-TTg (2021) listed as in forceReplaced by Decision 1466/QD-TTg (31 July 2026)57S9. Regulation, F5. Targets and hubs
Research intensity against ThailandAbout a quarter (OpenAIRE)About a quarter to a third (OpenAIRE 23%; OpenAlex, broader basket, about 31%)52,58Knowledge and talent, S7. Research landscape
Vietnamese extrusion researchAt most one study, affiliation unverifiedNone: the one candidate (vvae080) is from a Taiwanese university; plant-based meat papers about 558S13. Science, S7. Research landscape
Leucaena shrimp-feed trialProbable wrong Vietnam tagGenuine Vietnamese study (Tra Vinh University) in an Indian journal58S7. Research landscape
Vietnamese yeast-protein precedentNot recordedThai Duong Feed JSC ran a 2016 to 2019 national project on yeast protein for feed (120 t of liquid product; a VND 167 billion line); current status unknown59,60S1. Directory, Frontier technology

M5.10 Changes made in v0.3

Version 0.3 (September 2026) adds Part III and makes these changes to how earlier material should be read. No v0.2 number is replaced.

TopicVersion 0.2Version 0.3SourcesWhere
ScopeConsumer demand and market forecasts out of scope, except business-to-business demandDemand added as a design input in Part III; demand routes sized as labelled scenarios; still no market-size forecast and no marketing plan61,62How to read, M3. Demand method
S-ALT food sideA what-if share of meat replaced (1% in 2030 to 10% in 2050)Read as exploratory: no documented demand route reaches it; a benchmark path displaces about 0.2% of meat protein by 203563,64,65Protein balance 2050, Demand sizing
Market pull of plays T1 and T104 and 3Demand view 5 and 4; plays.csv unchanged, demand view in play_demand_check.csv62,66Plays, Demand to frontier
GFI APAC survey frame"Vietnam included in a six-country survey"The Vietnam sample (n = 1,049) is an online panel in the Hanoi region and Ho Chi Minh City; one working paper described it as Ho Chi Minh City only61,67Consumers, R2. Disagreements
Vietnamese vegan and vegetarian organisationsNot verifiedThe organised vegan movement is small and mainly online; no national association with a public membership figure found68,69Alt protein today, Chay baseline

Corrections from the independent review of Part III

Before release, an independent reviewer re-checked Part III against the working papers, the data files and the model outputs (M3. Demand method, section M3.6). These are the draft statements it corrected.

TopicDraft of Part IIIVersion 0.3 as releasedSourcesWhere
Price of plant proteins shipped from ChinaUSD 1.2 to 2.2 per kgAbout USD 0.9 to 1.3 per kg (China-reported 2025 unit values for HS 3504, 1109 and 2106.10; about USD 1.1 on average). USD 1.95 to 2.20 was the price of three sampled isolate shipments, not of the whole tonnage62,70Business buyers, Summary, Investors
Meat protein displaced by technology routes, 20350.2 to 0.7%0.1 to 0.4% for hybrids, canteens and analogues; 0.2 to 0.7% only when added chay days are included62,71International, Demand sizing
Chay price against the meat versionSame-brand chay 17 to 38% cheaperOnly the Vissan pair (38% cheaper) is high confidence; other pairs are low confidence and range from 52% cheaper to 19% dearer27Chay baseline, Manufacturers
Protein claims on chay foodsNo chay food makes a protein claimNo chay food carries a numeric protein claim or a protein claim in its name; one chay dumpling pack says its protein is 100% plant27Manufacturers, D3. Retail demand signals
Cultivated meat sold in SingaporeThousands of servingsTens of thousands: more than 2,000 servings from one firm and more than 25,000 dishes from another, in almost six years72,73Frontier demand, Summary, Investors
Retail textured soy against the border price8 to 12 timesAbout 10 to 16 times the 2025 unit value for HS 2106.10 (our calculation; the supply chapters' 8 to 12 times uses the 2023 unit value)62,27Business buyers, S2. Retail formulation audit
Diaspora chay pack prices in the USUSD 3.50 to 9.00USD 3.50 to 1074Export demand, Demand to frontier
Retail protein floor and a 20 g servingVND 34,000 to 46,000 per 100 g of protein; 20 g for VND 6,800 to 9,200VND 34,000 to 45,000 and VND 6,900 to 9,000, from the Part III price check; the supply chapters keep 34,000 to 46,000 from its own price sample75,76,77Protein diet, Channels
Ratios from the demand modelDelivered protein ten times displaced protein; S-ALT feed four to five times foodAbout eight times in 2035; about four times62,63Demand sizing
Plays that lead under the weight presetsT1, T2 and T4 lead under almost every weightingT4 is first or second under every preset; with the demand view, T1 leads four of the seven presets; T5 is second under the policy, research and international presets62,66Demand to frontier
Vinasoy's share of soy milkAbout 90% (labelled as our derivation)90.6% of branded soy milk in 2024 (Bao Viet Securities), shown beside the supply chapters' about 80% of all soy milk78,79Chay baseline, Consumers
Demand evidence tagsFunctional ingredient tests tagged as tested demand; firm actions and official messaging tagged as stated; one calculation under a High, revealed tagFunctional tests carry no demand tag; firm actions are revealed; calculations are inferred and Low; two tariff key numbers carry no demand tag80,81,82Protein diet, Frontier demand, Channels, Business buyers
Missing citationsClaims on the Netherlands price premium, the duty on HS 2106.10, Malaysia's US tariff and Thai private-label exportersSources added64,83,84,85Protein diet, Business buyers, Export demand
Model basis for line equivalentsIngredient product at 0.60 protein, not explainedDocumented: textured-protein line output is about 60% protein, below the 0.65 average of the import pool, which includes gluten and isolates; results unchanged62,70D8. Demand model
Vietnamese summary wordingLiteral renderings of "incumbent", "stretch" and "benchmark" scenario, and "price floor"Revised to natural Vietnamese terms; numbers aligned with the English61Tóm tắt (Tiếng Việt)
Small slipsStore count 8,700; European growth "only in France"; premium chay price "a head"; chay protein "average"; missing years8,750 stores; France and Italy; per head at a buffet and per bill at a restaurant; median; years added; Hung Yen (former Thai Binh)86,87,88,27Part III chapters

M5.11 Changes made in v0.4

Version 0.4 (September 2026) checks Part III against 80 named actors and adds the results of sixteen research lines (Actor check, M4. Actor check and waves). These are the v0.3 statements it corrects or replaces. The demand model's inputs and outputs are unchanged; see Demand sizing for how the corrections bear on them.

TopicVersion 0.3Version 0.4SourcesWhere
Food Safety Law timingExpected at the October to November 2026 sessionFirst comments at the October 2026 session; passage considered at the May 2027 session; the window for a new-food clause runs into early 202789,90Rules, Policy options, Outlook, briefs, summaries
School meals and proteinGuided by an animal-protein target (Decision 1340, 2016); plant protein in schools runs against it; do not start in schoolsDecision 1340 targets ended in 2020. Decision 3958/QĐ-BYT (December 2025) sets no animal share and asks for legumes or tofu at least twice a week; audited menus meet it in 9 of 48 weeks and fill it with tofu beside meat; menu software prints a 48% animal-protein standard. Only a labelled blend in minced dishes removes meat91,92,93Channels, Demand to frontier
Tariff protectionMFN duties of 3 to 10% give domestic makers a little protectionChinese, ASEAN and Korean protein ingredients enter at 0% under ACFTA, ATIGA, AKFTA and RCEP; MFN applies only to other origins94,95Business buyers, Rules, S9. Regulation, Costs and benchmarks
Domestic textured protein (T1)Equipment USD 1.5 to 4 million per line (assumption); benchmark path supports three to four lines; a startup thesisChinese lines listed at USD 11,000 to 100,000, installed USD 0.3 to 1.4 million; flour price decides the margin; about one soy line by 2035; best owned by an incumbent or distributor and debt-financed96,97,98Economics, Plays, Demand to frontier, Investors
Chinese textured protein priceAbout USD 1.6 per kg (2023) before freight and dutyUSD 1.24 per kg FOB (2025), landed about USD 1.29 to 1.38 per kg62,97Economics, Business buyers
Blends (T9, TPP-03)An extender must cost less than the lean meat it replaces; 20 to 30% replacement, up to 50%Soy extension already pays at every hog price since 2019, so a new extender must beat hydrated soy; 10 to 20% in fine emulsions, 30% in coarse mince; avoid the độn (filler) frame99,100,101Frontier demand, Demand to frontier
Label movesDefine chay; require percentage labels on blends; neutral naming guidance; clarify GMO statusVegetarian and vegan claims already defined (TCVN 13625:2023, vegetarian allows egg and milk); named ingredients must already be quantified; no rule reserves meat or milk words; the GMO label applies only above 5% of ingredients102,103,104Demand to frontier, Frontier demand, S9. Regulation
Label instrumentsDecree 43/2017 as amended; Circular 29/2023Decree 37/2026 and Circular 30/2026/TT-BYT replaced them105,106,107S9. Regulation, Rules
Plant milk price positionPriced at or below dairy; no tax conditionAn 8% excise (10% from 2028) on drinks above 5 g sugar per 100 ml from 2027, dairy exempt; plant milks' status unresolved108,109Consumers, Demand to frontier
Children's protein gapCheap high-quality protein for children in upland districts; stunting 19.6% (2020)Stunting 18% (2023), 32% among ethnic minority children, set before age two; school-age lunches, including upland boarding schools, carry enough protein and zinc; shortfalls are breakfast, calcium and vitamin A110,111,112Protein diet
Advice to fundersFund measurement first; test canteen chay days or chay promotionMatch the route to the funder's unit and rules; only 4 of the original 19 demand moves have a funder whose scope fits and that accepts Vietnam; the chay route has no payer today; animals and CO2e added113,114,115Demand sizing, Demand to frontier, International
Advice to startupsWin a first business customer before building a consumer brandSell a familiar food with little capital; aim first for ingredient, private-label or co-packing supply; a menu listing for your own analogue brand is not a business customer; the ingredient route is untested116,117Summary, Demand to frontier, Startups
Export routeEU and UK private label through Vietnamese co-packers; functional proteins for Japanese and Korean makersWrapped foods (USD 128 million of stuffed pasta, 2023) are the base; first buyers are European importers and brand owners needing IFS or BRCGS; the Japan and Korea ingredient route is weakly evidenced; origin rules bind on wrapper flour, not soy118,119,120Export demand
Feed export pull (T2)Export feed standards reward traceable non-soy proteinASC v1.2, BAP and GLOBALG.A.P. neither require nor reward microbial protein; the pull is domestic and revealed: about 9,200 t of inactive yeast imported for food and feed, 95% of it at about USD 1.1 per kg121,122Export demand, Feed and aquafeed market
ASC standard versionVersion 1.1 cited as in forceVersion 1.2 (v1.1 was never in force)121Export demand, D6. Export
Corporate and firm factsWinCommerce 15,000 stores by 2030 (inferred); no Meat Zero found; Vinh Hoan and Minh Phu as seafood co-investors; no Vietnamese mycoprotein makerWinCommerce targets 13,000 by 2030; CP Meat Zero listed on a B2B platform but not orderable; Avant's Singapore unit wound up; Emmay reports mycelium foods123,124,125,126,127Channels, Frontier demand, Business buyers
Hospitals and the armyNo retrievable dataA hospital tender accepts 120 g of tofu for 60 g of meat; the army ration is VND 72,000 a day128,129Channels
Domestic share of delivered proteinAbout 19,000 t of domestic or novel protein delivered by 2035About 19,000 t through the routes, of which about 11,000 to 17,000 t made in Vietnam (only import substitution applies a domestic share)62,130Demand sizing, D8. Demand model

M5.12 Changes made in v0.5

Version 0.5 (September 2026) adds a prologue for newcomers in English and Vietnamese (Prologue, Lời mở đầu (Tiếng Việt)). No finding changes. The other changes:

TopicVersion 0.4Version 0.5Where
Bibliographysources/bibliography.md still listed the 1,726 sources of v0.3; the 577 sources of v0.4 were in sources.csv and Appendix R4 but missing from the bibliographyThe bibliography lists all 2,384 sources, with the v0.4 and v0.5 rounds at the endsources/bibliography.md
Front pagesCover, how to read, executive summaries, at a glanceThe prologue follows the cover; the cover, how to read and both executive summaries link to it; a "newcomers" reading path is added to the site manifestHome, How to read
Registers2,303 sources; 212 glossary terms; 139 key numbers; 54 charts2,384 sources (81 from the prologue research, prefixes PRA, PRB and PRC); 223 glossary terms (11 newcomer terms); 143 key numbers; 56 chartsR4. Sources, R3. Glossary
Chinese textured protein price in chapter 2"About USD 1.6 to 1.7 per kg" for 2023 China-reported exports across three codes, without the 2025 figureThe 2023 figure is kept as dated and the 2025 price (USD 1.24 per kg FOB, about USD 1.29 to 1.38 landed duty-free) is added beside itAlt protein today

Related: R2. Disagreements (where sources disagree rather than an earlier draft being wrong).

Nguồn được trích dẫn trong trang

Toàn bộ nguồn (Phụ lục T)

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